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The way those ova look on a map. ~1115A/18

I see them from my house. You say Mahwah 1/2-1" earlier this morning?? wow. Flurries in Wantage

That is the OKX/PHI forecast., We'll see how it works out. Snow and slippery travel is coming to NYC-LI today.

And to dovetail, the regional look adds OKX etc.

Saw the 00z/18 EC OP and 06z/18 GFSv15 and to some extent the 06z/ v16 OP for a snow event NYC forum around the 26th. No thread planned from myself, till late today or tomorrow morning, to get a little bit of consistency and ensemble support.

Looks like some nice bands of potentially moderate snow are aimed toward the forum along and s of I78 to LI this morning. It's snow loading now (saturating down) but soon there should be some 1/2mi moderate snow falling near I195 and maybe I78.

330AM: Wantage NJ, at the nw tip of NJ We too flurries began here around 323A. 22.6/7.2 Notice from mPing snowing into s CT part of the forum as well. Notice NAM about 40% heavier on qpf NYC on its 06z cycle. Just getting up so no feel on what may have changed and is reliable via 00z-06z cycles but snow is at hand. Good news. 450AM: flurries continue. no acc. 21/15. Dewpoint increased 8F since 330A.

I did miss that (color coded) that OKX moved to an advisory only. That might be right despite their 7" forecast for NYC.

Nothing more I can add. I've shown the NWS forecast snowfall. You can see there is hesitancy in the NWS decision regarding the watch, which to me indicates, is it warnable because doubts either of mixed precip not quite reaching warnable criteria, or is the duration too long to meet an 8" snowfall criteria over 24 hours. Minimum snowfall of 3" looks good for the entire forum with a max over the entire event of 8 or 9". So, if it's all snow NYC, we pop to at least top 5 February snowfall at CP (presuming the NWS 7" forecast is within an inch or so). I just see potential for mixed precip to LI and most of NJ, and what about melting as it falls during the increasingly high sun angle midday Friday. Those answers I do not have but attempt to provide some wiggle room on outcomes. I hope it snows to the satisfaction of all members. For me here in Wantage NJ, I look for 5-9" but maybe this range will be too high? This may be the last I comment till tomorrow morning. Have at it.

515A/19: Intermittent event continues and precip intensification gradually changes freezing rain/freezing drizzle sleet near I95 eastward to snow. Ending time still the same, this afternoon sometime ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS and the remainder sometime this evening-early tonight. Between 7AM-ending time, I expect a general base 1/2" new throughout the forum after 7am with possibly as much as 3" , the heaviest seeming to be near NYC into CT per a decent band developing this morning-midday, and possibly a nice hour of closing snow this evening. Easy melting process on pavement expected during the midday-afternoon hours where temps above 25F and when snow lessens it's intensity. Manageable but fun for us. 450AM/18: overall no change in expectations. Might get started an hour or so slower but already flurries or steady light snow have occurred se NYS, ne PA, CT, far nw NJ. See latest NWS products and your own judgement. 548AM added the 4AM NWS regional snowfall expectation that went into their early morning products. An overall manageable 24-36 hour wintry precipitation episode will probably see snow change to a mixed bag in NJ/LI, with even a bit of rain possible for a time eastern LI and the NJ coast. Snow should begin in seNYS/NJ/NYC between 2AM and 7AM Thursday and by 9AM elsewhere. It should snow moderately for a time sometime between 9AM and 4PM Thursday before probably transitioning to mixed precipitation or even quitting for a time in NJ/LI toward Thursday evening. Precipitation may intensify again as it probably changes back to snow everywhere on Friday and then gradually ends from west to east during the afternoon, or early Friday night. Graphics are the 21z/17 NWS ensemble 48 hour prob for 8"+ of snow, 4"+, the 12z/17 SPC HREF snowfall ending 00z/19 = 7PM Thursday, the 5PM/17 actual NWS regional deterministic (approximate) snowfall forecast and the 21z/17 WPC ensemble prob of .01" freezing rain. Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Please contribute as needed.

That is the read... 26-27 and the first week of March. No topics yet, since it's mostly I84 but monitoring via the NAEFS. While the cold softens, and maybe we'll average a bit above normal, models are trending a bit colder the last week of Feb and first week of March, as far as i can tell. Snow pack lingers I84 corridor through at least the 24th from what I can tell.

554A: Topic headlines were adjusted from the original of ate last week to the snowier wintry solution. A burst of moderate to briefly heavy snow Thursday, begins lightly between midnight and 6AM Thursday much of the area, though it may delay a bit to the daylight hours north of I84. QPF etc has decreased since originally threaded. Modeling allows sleet/freezing rain to get involved near the Thursday evening rush hour and eventually back to manageable, possibly intermittent snow on Friday. Some modeling has a decent burst of snow Friday. ~Half a foot or more seems likely for much of the area with sleet/freezing rain (even maybe eventually even a bit of rain e LI) limiting the risk of 6" south of I78 and possibly LI as well. Graphics added are WPC 09z ensemble chance of 8"+, chance of .01 freezing rain for the periods indicated (note it's got higher probs southwest Harrisburg, but that would include earlier than the 48 hours shown) and the NWS regional snow forecast through 7PM Friday. OBS NOWCAST thread will post this evening.

Let's review the Feb 7 initial post. The title changed enroute (i think I had 14-18 for the event window 7+days in advance). Perspective on what our modeling was indicating follows. Initial post from 2/7 midday. Have included rain in the tags, because we're close to having rain ,at times, within the overall cold enough pattern for snow and Ice, mainly along and northwest of I95. QPF this 5 day period should be in the range of a general 0.5" minimum, to possibly a maximum ~1.5". How much falls as snow, ice, rain is unknown and debatable. Multiple ensembles offer plenty of snow in and to the west and north of our subforum. Favorable blocking for northeast snowfall appears to remain through this period, and well beyond. Am witnessing via modeling and reality, a balancing of the cold core from southwest Canada to the northern Plains and Great Lakes shooting off pieces into the northeast USA, then on into the north Atlantic. These reestablish-reinforce the blocking -NAO from northern Canada to Greenland, and, following each pulse of CAA that moves through our subforum, there is WAA ahead of the next short wave. So far, the cold core has not broken off in total, to change the pattern and so, the snow opportunities continue on and on. February is already off to a special start and we may be heading for a top 10 snowiest February (see attached February Central Park ranking and year). Will narrow the goal posts on these possibilities for this 5 day period as we draw closer. My most confident period of something significant-substantial is the 16th-17th, but I have to consider some of the modeling that likes Valentines Day for an event and also the 16th-17th, delayed a day til the 18th. What happened? A little bit of junk ice/flurries here and there the 14th (better ice the day before on the 13th along and se of I95, (that was our RIC ice storm). The primary event was the night of the 15th, morning of the 16th. It was generally ~0.4-1.25" of rain as far as I can tell, with rain and non hazardous spotty icing I95 corridor southeastward and ice northwest of that, with a busted heavy ice forecast for the northwest part of the forum. That bust I think in part was related to twice the reality qpf forecast (please see attached), not the temperatures. So in the middle of where the ICE was supposed to be thickest, the rainfall was significantly less. This happens. QPF modeling imperfect and I doubt if I can improve on banded qpf deviating from the models. Power outages and downed trees/wires occurred in parts of the Poconos northward, just outside the members in the northwest part of our area (see Monroe County reports). Experimental guidance such as the HPC HREF and HRRX can be too heavy on icing and were again or are displaced. The GFSV16 did a nice job on the FRAM ice expectation as did NAM temps and eventually RGEM temps. QPF's, not so good. And an event is coming the 18th. IF anyone has a better archive of RADAR qpf from DIX or OKX, please attach. Thanks much.

Hi. I'm not a long ranger. I don't study seasonal base states, MJO phases, and not sure how accurate the Ensemble Oscillations are beyond 11 days. With the Nina base state the southeastern ridge may want to get dominant, but somehow, I don't think we're done. (too early for mud season). If this was March 21, then probably done for LI, but things happen... including 'thread the needles'. Multiple modeling is trying... trying to go -NAO beyond 10 days but will it be effective cooling for us and can the EPO go back negative? Taking one event at a time. 18-19, and 21-24 to me continue on the books. Do you like the GEFS... then it's north, but even that has lowering heights and spread in solutions. Do you like the EPS,? Then you add a period of snow to the forum, albeit wet and probably changing to rain I80 south.

Yes I agree... shows just how close we came to having a bigger - more extensive problem. I see some decent power outages ne PA, se NYS, just on outside the edge of subforum. I think also, in the tend, the RGEM was best at indicating icing holding to 12z Pocs/se NYS High Point NJ. Took awhile for the RGEM to come to that conclusion.

Regarding the national unprecedented in recent history event. From the NWS, a quick check of the top 10 national coverage's since 2005 per Greg Carbin WPC. --- As many have noted on Twitter and elsewhere over the past 24 hours, the CONUS area covered by Winter Storm Warnings is quite remarkable! That was about 1.6 million square kilometers with active warnings or, put another way, the area currently covered by Winter Storm Warnings over the CONUS is larger than the land area of Alaska. That is crazy and puts the events of these days into some amazing perspective. I wrote a script this afternoon to download all the warning shapefiles from the Iowa Mesonet and take a look at the area covered by Winter Storm Warnings (technically Winter Storm Watches that are upgraded to Warnings) from November 2005 through February 14, 2021. For the 2,158 days with Winter Storm Warnings in effect back to November 2005, the average area covered on any day with active Winter Storm Warnings is about 77,000 km^2, or about the size of South Carolina. The median warning area size is about double that, 142,000 km^2, or about the size of Illinois (using land area sizes from here). The standard deviation of the daily warning size distribution is 170,000 km^2. Thus, the current area covered by Winter Storm Warnings is about 8 sigma above the long-term mean area of Winter Storm Warnings covered on any day with active winter warnings over the past 17 years. Here are the top 10 WS Warning Days since Nov. 2005, based on warning areal coverage: Date WSW Area (km^2) 1) Feb. 14, 2021: 1,558,699 2) Feb. 01, 2011: 1,182,685 3) Dec. 29, 2012: 1,099,780 4) Nov. 26, 2019: 1,091,375 5) Dec. 01, 2007: 1,057,336 6) Mar. 02, 2014: 991,728 7) Feb. 20, 2011: 974,886 8) Dec. 30, 2010: 954,343 9) Dec. 24, 2009: 901,811 10)Dec, 01, 2018: 889,846 -- Greg Carbin | Chief, Forecast Operations Branch NOAA / National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Weather Prediction Center

The value of giving yourself wiggle room on perfect prognosis. Added the actual 1157Z obs that got into the verification for 12z/16. Note a touch colder in some of sheltered interior very difficult to handle the gradient. Then the EC op from 00z/16 and GFS/NAM ops from 06z/16 (their 00z versions were similar). A degree or two can make a large difference and EC was just too warm at 12z in the strong temp gradient except southern Manhattan heliport (elevated) and JFK eastward.

An image of the Paper Birch in front of our Wantage NJ home at 715A, and the white pine in our backyard at 645AM.Eestimated .15" Radial Ice. Last 32F wa about 440AM. Melting now but plenty to go. Have no idea why these don't post without a download? F7883524-CAEA-47E0-B429-70EA6280F338.heicF7883524-CAEA-47E0-B429-70EA6280F338.heic

This could be a dud thread, but modeling still has a little snow for the I78 north portion of the forum, but low passage NORTH of our area which doesn't bode well. Still something to monitor but not pin a lot of hope upon.

Wantage NJ 524aAM. Rain-melting at 33.6F.

517A: A nice solution coming (overall colder and snowier than what modeling was generally offering Friday the 12th) with a range of accumulations of 1" to possibly as much as a foot in the upper high end scenario. Thursday's evenings commute should be snowy for much of the area and see delays, as it readies for a possible change to ice Near I78-LI (rain far south part of the subforum) and then ends Friday, most of it done by sunrise Friday (but with early morning delays/cancels). Too early for me to be sure for the NYC/LI/NNJ membership but plenty of modeling close to half a foot. A watch/warnable snow-ice event seems to be coming for a portion of NYC subforum,. IFFFFF NYC were to report half a foot, that would place NYC in the top 5 snowiest February's. This coming snow-sleet, whatever, should rejuvenate snow depth , and maybe allow half a foot or more for much of the area into Monday Feb 22. One WPC graphic added: the 24 hour prob of 2" of snow by 7P Thursday.

I remember: WX works now? 431A: Still zr- 31.5. Just 54 meters out in our rural coop at 430A, power outages larger Warren County. everything solid ice here. Has to be delays in the County, especially north. Post event summary: SPC HREF exhibits the continuing cold bias and too robust FRAM output until within 12 hours of the event.There fore too far southeast. and too heavy not rewarding good verification but ice did occur e PA much of nw NJ and all I84 corridor. Still a few reports to come, I'm sure. I think the GFSv16 did a good job flagging 0.1-0.4" FRAM accretion where it occurred-forecast. 444A: 32.0F melting should begin shortly. Ice via ASOS radial at 4A looks like an estimated BDL .04, IJD 0.2, POU .07, FWN 0.11 which matches my estimate at 740'MSL, MPO near 1/4". High terrain accrete seems best.

Wantage NJ 4 św 336AM. ZR- brief ZR. 30.6F all glazed, est thickness at least 0.1" Isolated power outages Sussex County NJ

Thanks... power back at 901P. out 3 hrs 25 min. Down to 27.5F

17900 meters out in Sussex county NJ. Cause unknown.