wdrag

A sharp negative tilt trough out of the Great Lakes this Saturday the 24th, may place NYC on the western fringe of what could be a sizable rainfall for eastern LI, especially Montauk??? Thereafter, there are possibilities NYC will be on the northern or northwest fringe of a complex mid Atlantic coast-western Atlantic low pressure system that may yet ingest a bit of SAM RH, or at the least have it's overall Western Atlantic flow altered in such a way that LI-NYC is in the mid level deformation zone yielding qpf here of .05 to .75" next Wednesday-the 29th through Saturday October 2. Timing and northwest extent of the showery rains all uncertain but not a zero chance. Modeling of this is going may be very sensitive to overall western Atlantic response to SAM. I just don't know but worthy of monitoring. AND, as a final observation of modeling: 00z/24 guidance has virtually all members showing SAM not posing a direct threat to the northeast USA, except for 2 tor 3 members. Will monitor future modeling trends.

NYC now at 2.02" for the storm as of 510AM. Much better yield for the city than anticipated, figuring the bigger bands would miss the city. This has been a productive event.

Good Friday morning everyone, CP is closing in and within range of a first time ever 3 consecutive months of 10+". As of 510AM the storm total of 2.02" has brought the monthly total to 9.75 with a little more to go this morning before it's all over by 8 or 9A. Then we watch the sharp negative tilt trough out of the Great Lakes this Saturday the 24th, to see if NYC is on the western fringe of what could be a sizable rainfall for eastern LI, especially Montauk. Thereafter, there are possibilities NYC will be on the northern or northwest fringe of a complex mid Atlantic coast-western Atlantic low pressure system that may yet ingest a bit of SAM RH, or at the least have it's overall Western Atlantic flow altered in such a way that LI-NYC is in the mid level deformation zone yielding qpf here of .05 to .75" next Wednesday-the 29th through Saturday October 2. Timing and northwest extent of the showery rains all uncertain but not a zero chance. Modeling of this is going may be very sensitive to overall western Atlantic response to SAM. I just don't know but worthy of monitoring. AND, as a final observation of modeling: 00z/24 guidance has virtually all members showing SAM not posing a direct threat to the northeast USA, except for 2 tor 3 members. Will monitor future modeling trends.

By my count as of 430A: NYC CP at 9.46" for the month, still counting. storm total 1.73 and still rising. Need to reverify at 5A.

Wantage NJ (this part). Final 2.24". Updating NYC mo total thread shortly as they near 9.5".

Some rainfall today as of 8P.

1.57 so far today in this part of Wantage NJ. higher amounts juste w of Wantage in Sussex County NJ.

0.94 6P-8P including 0.86 in 1 hr ending 750P. Mo total 8.67 as of 8P/23. Depends on what occurs overnight but prob less than 1". Then depends on whether we get a coastal 29th-30th. Long shot all.

Rainfall so far today in NJ/NYS per climate mesonet sites.

Wantage NJ 8 s High Point: 1.42 so far.

Been lots of thunder up here in Sussex County NJ since 130P. Wantage NJ storm total now 1.24"

Wantage NJ 4sw just had a 2.8"/hr rfall RATE. for there day 1.19, most of that since 339P.

After whatever happens by 8AM Friday the 24th, there will be one or two more opportunities for rain before the end of the month. Whether CP makes 10"will be largely dependent on what happens tonight. Presuming it's under 1.7", then reaching 10 this month is very unlikely. Thread for tonight has been started.

While most of the NYC subforum will have a routine moderate or heavy rainfall, there could be narrow corridors of excessive rain. Some of the guidance shows max possible rainfall in our area of ~4" but most of it is in the range from near 1/4" e LI to between 1/2 and 2" elsewhere. The primary time for heaviest weather is 6P-4A tonight. Please monitor NWS watches/warnings/statements on FF/SVR.

No thread yet on a 3+" event for a portion of the subforum and spotty SVR. Right now, I think it's marginal but if we happen to get a meso low on the cold front Thursday night over NJ, then i think we'll have some non-routine heavier rains (3") and spotty damaging wind events.

7.73 as of 9A/22. No thread yet on a 3+" event for a portion of the subforum and spotty SVR. Right now, I think it's marginal but if we happen to get a meso low on the cold front Thursday night over NJ, then i think we'll have some non-routine heavier rains and wind events. Will rereview late today and early Thursday. For now, no go for me. Still a long long shot to get 10+ for the month at CP but a small chance. Axis of max bands next 48 hours, and any new rains on the 25th and 30th are uncertainties. 06z GEFS has temporarily lost the intensity of the weekend trough. So waiting this out.

.08 this eve. total for Sept 7.71. still a long ways from 10".

Hope but probably no cigar. Like seeing soo much s-se inflow into the front, implying lots of lift near the front Thursday. The slower it crosses NJ, the better. Also the secondary digging upper level trough late next weekend into the 30th is of interest but overall, the second batch probably not enough for a 10" Sept, yet not a zero chance.

Will look early Wed, at a possible SVR thread for Thursday. Usually need a secondary low on the front thru PA, s NYS. If that does not occur, QPF and associated SVR would probably be less than modeled. Have another great late summer day.

May not post much for a couple of days Allowing troughs and PW to come into better agreement think we need two events to get close? Have a day.

Looking ahead: 12z/18 EPS has noticeably more qpf than the GEFS for the entire subforum by the 25th and the EPS also has quite a bit of tropical near Bermuda around the 26th-27th, which is scarce on the 12z/18 GEFS. GEFS is not doing much with the subsequent 5H short wave troughs after the 23rd. The EPS may be a little abundant if the PW ends up less than 2" ~ the 23rd-always have to look at downside. Short wave does look like its neutral if not a bit negative coming across the mid Atlantic coast ~the 23rd. Could mean nice southerly inflow, spot severe associated with the sfc low?

So Odette formed but the scenario did not play out as i thought it might, instead smatterings here and there with bigger qpf NJ, e LI, DCA area. Might get a decent shower late today. Best chances to get decent amounts seem to be 22nd-23rd and somewhere around the 26th-28th. Seems like a long shot for 10", certainly longer shot than when presented in the originating thread but there are options for the necessary amounts. It seems like everything has to go right, including a sharper further south 500MB trough 22nd-23rd and ditto 26-28, both that might ingest some tropical moisture and focus low pressure just s of LI. For now, not holding my breath.

Been dissappointingly poor NYC area qpf past two days. Not much coming next two days...maybe we get lucky in the city and get a few hundredths. Appears two more sizable options left in the month, around the 23rd or thereabouts and then 26th-28th. One would think it will be tough to attain the 10" goal. We'll see.

Wantage NJ (this part) 1.02 since 9P/15. Decent rains interior se NYS, extreme nw NJ...1/2"-maybe 1.5"?

No SVR thread yet: looks too marginal except nw edge of the forum. IF this changes more favorable, will add on, or if it looks blatant on radar. For now, no thread on D1 severe. Regarding the Sept CP10". My goal by Sat evening is to see CP with new 0.40" by then (monthly total just over 8"). Then I think we still have a fading chance. IF CP has less than 0.20 by Saturday eve, think it will be much harder to exceed 10" this month. We have the tropical considerations after the 23rd to contend with and while the 500MB troughing is sharpening to our west on the 06z/15 GEFS, just too early for me to count on a big rain after the 23rd.