wdrag

Good Tuesday morning all, Expect a period of snow showers in the nw-ne suburbs toward midday. Elsewhere for NYC/LI & s of I-78, rain or possibly rain/mixed snow showers early this afternoon. No accumulation NYC CP eastward and southward, however 0.1-0.7" possible in a few hilly areas well northwest and north of the city. Essentially harmless, with probably no street hazard, other than what one might expect in a rain shower. This is associated with a strong wave passage. mPing should be somewhat active between 10A-4P. No graphics today with the graphics below from 2/22. 528A/23 -- Today (22): Advisories posted just w and n of I-95 for a 5 hour period of occasionally heavy wet snow, while snow NYC and possibly all of the forum coasts during midday changes to rain. Exception southern Ocean County - which may be all rain. Snowfall rates of 1-1.5"/hour anticipated for portions of NJ will quickly make treated roads slippery for a time. Isolated ~5" possible part of NJ near and north of I78 with a general 2-4" accumulation in the advisory area though 4" possibly less likely in NYS/CT. This band may spawn isolated thunder in NJ/LI as it models convective in nature. Expect the first heavy burst within 1 hour of onset, then a slight relax followed by another heavy burst, then on the wane it's last two hours. Begins NJ/ne PA/se NYS 10A-NOON, NYC/CT Noon-1P,. Ends about 5 hours after onset. . Snow in NYC CP possible until 2P where anticipate anywhere from 0.2 to 1.4" there , dependent on temps/how quick it changes. Even a slight coating possible all of the forum coasts. Tuesday: Combined Tuesday in this thread only because it's a top 8 February and many members even out to eastern LI should see some sort of snow showers for an hour or two (may be more accumulation e LI Tuesday than today). Snow showers possibly mixed with rain on LI. Many locations Tuesday should receive 0.1 to as much as 0.5" new snow by ~1PM... the showery occurrence primarily during midday. Attached the 00z/22 HPC HREF, the 06z/22 NAM anticipated base snowfall and the NWS regional deterministic snowfall graphic.

NWS regionalized snowfall forecast as issued in their 4PM products, also the HREF in gradations of 1,2,4 (blue shades, green is 6), and the NWS Blend of Models snowfall by 12z/Saturday. That gives enough snow to pop CP close to#5 by then. My guess is that NYC will get an accumulative of 0.2 to 1.4" midday Monday with possibly a little more Friday night-Saturday morning. Probably the much lighter amount (0.2" Monday) but it's timing with the 18z ob and melting the keys to less than the max of 1.4". My feeling it will snow close to a moderate rate by 1230-45PM in NYC. The answer by this time Monday.

Adding on the other thread in 2 min.

Agreed...you called it a couple days ago. I tend to be more conservative on urban... short term attempt at targeting. some have it south of you, others north of you. Yes on the next two gtrheaded events beyond., Right now the V16 has nothing for 28--early 2 but don't think that will last against ensembled increasingly heavy qpf of snow to rain ending as snow. Keeps the interest going.

All: 18z/21 NAM FOUS suggests a pretty good chance of 0.2 to 1.5" snow event in the 18z/22 ob for NYC CP. We'll see if the increasingly faster NAM and reality are truth. Meanwhile no changes to prior early morning updated thread. With snow in the air excepted into NYC, will begin the OBS thread at about 5AM, Monday. Still a short fuse attempt at targeting best spot for 3- at most 6" in a 5 hour period. Whether or not it falls at 33F, rate so heavy for a short time that will make treated roads mess, probably imo, even to NYC, till melting takes over when rates decrease or it changes to rain. Won't add anything more til early Monday. Have good night.

Imperfect but something will come of this. Maybe its snow to rain but it is a pattern that has been finding ways to snow. That will eventually end but not til at least March 2 (next 3 threaded events omitting the negligible showery rain/snow event early Tuesday afternoon).

Also, this one may be trending the right direction. V16 now has 3"+ much of the area just north of I80 the morning of the 27th. So far , continues ever more interesting. Looking at a big big winter here...certainly FEB has a good chance top 5 or better now by Friday night in CP. One event at a time. Suggest continuing clearing gutters SAFELY!!!! I-84 corridor to near NYC. Roof leaks developing. Subtle but significant in ne PA. Could be happening elsewhere, Just not news compared to everything else going on.

Need to look sooner. V16 is getting the I84corridor in the ballgame now for the 1st-2nd. I am liking the trends... lets see if they hold or slip further south. Maybe March in like a LION?

Wantage of extreme nw NJ: dustings of wind blown snow last evening 5P, overnight? and believe it or not...flurries here the past 15 minutes out of seemingly clear sky. Trace only but it is what it is. Walt 645A/Sunday the 21st.

612A/21: Questions seem to be centered on bullseye convective snowfall of 3" in 3 hours...it's location, and whether NYC can have enough snow fall between Noon and 3PM to cool the temp enough to stick to the snowboard in CP? Modeling differs, and snowmelt during the noon hour could preclude measuring CP but an inch is an option even to BWI/PHL/NYC. Not saying that it will happen in those urban centers, but it's possible and then also capturing the observed snowfall via a report. Meanwhile, I see this as a shorter term advisory issuance for portions of the hilly terrain subforum, primarily e pA/w NJ (maybe se NYS/Litchfield Hills?) to handle the short term rapidly changing road conditions in a 3-5 hour period of snow there with embedded 1"/hr snowfall rate. Heaviest for now targets somewhere from MD into NJ/e PA. That may become a short fuse convective snowfall consideration. Isolated 5" possible somewhere e PA/w NJ? General snowfall amounts se NYS/CT less than w NJ/ePA but still 1 to possibly 3". Will probably begin an obs thread Monday morning at 5A if it still looks like NYC members will see some wet snow to start. (I didn't mention, that a flurry is possible prior to sunrise Monday, but that flurry is not the primary concern). Four graphics added to the top of the of the thread: the 09z/21 NWS deterministic snowfall, the 09z WPC ensemble chance of 1+" of snow Monday, and 4+" and the 00z/21 HPC HREF (high resolution ensemble snowfall).

550A/21: No change to thread (for me). Model variability. By and large looks too warm for more than 1" of snow/sleet NYC-LI-s of I78, if any at all. Modeling does have an option for heavy qpf, snow/sleet/freezing rain to rain, end as snow especially I84 corridor. Not saying that will happen, but I think that option is realistic instead of the all warm-wet Great Lakes inside runner scenario. It's complicated and if necessary in a day or two may need to change the primary end date to March 2, as optioned in the initial thread. Also, for now no flood threat due to snowmelt/qpf, if that warm heavy qpf option comes to pass as the primary reality. That flood threat insert for me, has to wait 3 more days before throwing in the towel on my primary concern for wintry elements. Finally, that closed low option continues (06z/21 V15 ballistic, V16 not). Will monitor successive GEFS 6 hour member cycles as seen on http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html Any questions and I can guide us thru this. Just use your cursor to slide over the hours from L to R and not only monitor the mean, but the spaghetti, which for me is crucial to understanding future model options.

Monday morning March 1 625AM Update: Good to see the sleet obs yesterday in our distant nw suburbs. Below restates what is obviously modeled and discussed in prior days updates: I moved the timing up an hour and changed the title to add OBS-NOWCAST as well. Will have summary maps of rain, any snowfall, and possibly wind gusts 45+ in tomorrow's (Tuesday) 10AM wrapup-review. Tonight 7PM/1 -3AM/2. Turning sharply colder with bands of flurries and snow showers causing a few areas of hazardous travel as temps fall from near freezing at 7PM to between 5 and 15 above by dawn Tuesday I84, and near 20 NYC, along with gusty northwest winds 35-45 MPH and wind chill down just below zero. Most areas only flurries, but a half inch of snow is possible a few locations ne PA, extreme nw NJ and especially se NYS, CT and maybe even e LI. A wind advisory is posted with NYC wind chill close to zero at sunrise Tuesday. ---- 650A Sunday/28: Ttile dropped snow from the snow to rain scenario. Significant 21 hour rainfall (1/2" I84 to 3/4-1.5" NJ/LI) this afternoon into Monday mid morning with snowmelt but not enough for a problem. Could see the need for something water related a part of urban ne NJ by Monday morning? Dense fog possible tonight with mild moist air over chilly ground. I think there will be spotty icing highest peaks of the Poconos/Catskills/Litchfield Hills this afternoon-tonight but no significant treated road problem. Small chance that rain ends as wet snow forenoon Monday I84 high terrain with little or no impact, if it does end as snow. Monday evening from roughly 8P -4A Tuesday, flurries likely to near NYC with a band or two of snow squalls CT/NYS/ne PA and possibly extreme nw NJ that could coat roads with a hazardous 1/2" accumulation in 30 minutes, along with gusty northwest winds to near 45 MPH, a few minutes of reduced visibility under 1/2mile and icy roads due to temps plummeting from near freezing at 8PM to the teens by dawn Tuesday (20-22F NYC?) and wind chill near zero CT/NYS/PA. We'll see if the models back off but from what i can tell, the early GFS op (V15) has been onto this from many days ago, much more so than any other model. NYC either no snow or a Trace of flurries. Some of the modeling suggests a band of squalls crosses from CT through e LI later Monday night. --- 655A Saturday/27: Coming to the end of this thread... that may end with a noticeable bang. Definitely a significant rainfall (1/2"or more) Sunday into Monday morning with snowmelt but not enough for a problem. Dense fog possible Sunday night with mild moist air over chilly ground. Chance that rain ends as wet snow forenoon Monday I84 high terrain with minuscule impact. However, Monday evening from roughly 8P -4A Tuesday, flurries likely to near NYC with a band or two of snow squalls CT/NYS/ne PA and possibly extreme nw NJ that could coat roads with a hazardous 1/2-1" accumulation in an hours time, along with gusty northwest winds to near 45 MPH, a few minutes of reduced visibility under 1/2mile and icy roads due to temps plummeting from near freezing at 8PM to the teens by dawn Tuesday (20-22F NYC?) and wind chill near zero CT/NYS/PA. We'll see if the models back off but from what i can tell, the early GFS op (V15) has been onto this from many days ago, much more so than any other model. Bluewave detailed elsewhere in the March thread. --- Good Friday morning everyone, Feb 26: Focus is mainly the I84 corridor. The Adirondacks are reserved for the last pgh. 1201AM-10AM Saturday (27th). A 1-4 hour period of showery wet snow-sleet will probably occur from the Baltimore area northward across the I-84 corridor early Saturday. There even could be spotty freezing rain? Minor-short duration impact, at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible in the Poconos. Elsewhere for the I84 corridor, inclusive of nw NJ, expect a Trace-3/4"; Baltimore-Phildelphia urban centers a Trace. A quick change to rain occurs shortly after onset, except that change to rain in the Poconos and northwest hills of CT may not occur til ~ 10AM Saturday. Melting all surfaces once the change to rain has occurred. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. Complex rain (spotty ice) possibly end as snow event. Any icy weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. Precipitation may end briefly as snow the rest of I84 corridor Monday morning March 1? So far, models say proceed with normal life with significant wintry weather unlikely. Monday night March 1 I-84 corridor---near midnight: A strong cold frontal passage may be accompanied by a dusting to 1/2" of snow. If this occurs, the sudden drop in temps with the snowfall would make it slippery. March 3-6: Uncertain modeling continues to suggest a wintry event that may include several inches of hazardous snow for the I84 corridor northward? Some models have no storm, so nothing to be sure of. Adirondacks: Please follow local forecasts: snow showers or flurries this morning. A period of snow Saturday changes to rain. A period of rain or ice is possible Sunday. Then, a refreshing of accumulative snow late Monday followed by a polar plunge Monday evening. March 3-6--- uncertain but seems like a period of snow in there somewhere. The second week of March, especially after the 7th... looks rather mild. 615A/26 Friday 517PM/26 update: 517PM Friday: seems to be getting slightly more interesting for ice and snow distant nw-ne suburbs. First: GFS v15 looks like, (barring a complete fade within 4 days) the winner regarding the intensity of this cold shot Monday night. Second: Unclear to me whether it warms much above freezing high terrain near I84 Sunday and I can see smidge of ice there. Third: Chance of dense snow eating fog late Sunday? Fourth: Modeling from both the GFS V15 and 16 has started showing more minor snow shower/flurry action Monday, on the backside of Sundays rain (and dense fog by night?). And 18z/26 GFS modeling is moving flurries down to near LI sound later Monday night with the strong polar cold front that looks like it may have gusts near 45 MPH drilling sharply colder temps into NYC. Will revisit Sunday morning. --- Friday 638AM update: Am still not convinced that this event will be insignificant but it's heading to a possibly wrongs-wasted thread. We do know it's going to rain and potentially pretty hard for a time on Sunday with precipitation lingering into Monday morning. Evolution has not yet permitted cold enough air to return, allowing for precip to change to snow Monday. Of concern to all who favor the GFSv16 implementation, is the still far different modeling between the V16 and the current operational V15. V15 in my opinion seems to have a pretty good chance of prevailing with it's polar cold frontal passage Monday night, flurries or snow showers possible down to NYC with plunging temps well down into the 20s in NYC (maybe ~22?). Meanwhile late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. Complex rain (spotty ice) possibly end as snow event. Any icy weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. Precipitation may end briefly as snow the rest of I84 corridor Monday morning March 1? So far, models say proceed with normal life with significant wintry weather unlikely. --- Thursday morning (25) 659AM update: Modeling and WPC is coming up on qpf for Sunday and there may be lingering Monday morning at the least. I have not crossed this thread off as a bust for the I84 corridor. No excuses. I still think it's on the boards and what I do think I know is that decent qpf is coming the 28th. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. A complex rain (spotty ice) possibly change to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1, but for now models say proceed with normal life. As you know, GFS modeling is drifting away from its excessive cold outbreak Monday night and leaves the door open for a little more than meets the eye (so far). I might be completely wrong for this period, regarding a wintry event occurrence but the door for me, is not yet closed. --- Wednesday morning 655 AM update: Title remains unchanged. May need to add a bit of ice for the interior in future reviews. Multiple model ensemble reviews of the 00z/24 cycle and 06z/24 GFS and V16 op reviews. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Still uncertain. A complex potential significant rain to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1 with significant hazardous high terrain accumulations of several inches I84 itself northward, while much less impact in the valleys below 700 feet elevation (Hartford, Poughkeepsie, Scranton). A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night (but not the GFS op ferocity which doesn't have much support). This for me is the 00z/24 consensus from NAEFS and 06/24 V16. Definitely not buying the GFS powerful cold shot preempting an event. I could be wrong but I see enough cold air seeping into the backside of whatever comes out of the Ohio Valley to make for a snow risk. It could even snow down to LI/I78 at the tail end (low chance for now, but a window that needs to remain open). It's complex and details remain tbd. It's possible I've read too much into this thread?? Considerations include WPC continues rather dry and very little wintry weather risk. --- 624A/23 - Tuesday: Incorporates modeling of ensembles through 00z/23, and op models through 06z/23. Maintain patience. A significant event is probably coming including some snow for I84 and possibly to NYC's immediate n/w suburbs. EPS/GEFS trending a fairly significant decline in AO/NAO first couple of days in March (think this an EPS concession to the GEFS, as i recall). GEFS has significant snow for the Virginias on the 2nd. That is a sign something is coming, with latitude axis of snowfall in doubt. I favor further north, per NAEFS. Also, the 06z/23 GFS op not given any weight in my thinking since its prediction for the NYC 1000-500MB thickness 06z/2 is 240 m less than the V16. (504 op vs V16 528 for NYC). Sensitivity between northern southern stream interactions is probably messing up solutions and so uncertainty. It either snows a bit late 28, or what i think is more likely is some snow late March 1-morning 2. EC wants to snow the 3rd. Therefore, no change in thread. --- 646A/22: May extend the title to 3P March 2 in the updated post tomorrow morning, otherwise, despite some dry modeling, I think we're on track for a significant event, some of it wintry, especially I84 corridor. Details TBD but it looks to me like a warmer wet prelim event late 28-early March 1, then some cooling and a change to snow from north to south late March 1 or early March 2. If its the standard CFP with low north of our forum, then no snow LI, but if it's two waves of low pressure, then the fun of the challenging forecast. I can definitely see 4" of snow in the northwest part of the forum for this complicated event. Not saying 4" will happen but definitely potential. --- 550A/21: No change to thread (for me). Model variability. By and large looks too warm for more than 1" of snow/sleet NYC-LI-s of I78, if any at all. Modeling does have an option for heavy qpf, snow/sleet/freezing rain to rain, end as snow especially I84 corridor. Not saying that will happen, but I think that option is realistic instead of the all warm-wet Great Lakes inside runner scenario. It's complicated and if necessary in a day or two may need to change the primary end date to March 2, as optioned in the initial thread. Also, for now no flood threat due to snowmelt/qpf, if that warm heavy qpf option comes to pass as the primary reality. That flood threat insert for me, has to wait 3 more days before throwing in the towel on my primary concern for wintry elements. Finally, that closed low option continues (06z/21 V15 ballistic, V16 not). Will monitor successive GEFS 6 hour member cycles as seen on http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html Any questions and I can guide us thru this. Just use your cursor to slide over the hours from L to R and not only monitor the mean, but the spaghetti, which for me is crucial to understanding future model options. ---- 330P/20: 12z/20 EPS GEFS diverge with the Canadian GEPS favoring too warm for snow I80 south but that can change in 9 days. What does seem apparent is that there will be strong WAA into the top of the ridge, which can allow snow at warmer than expected 1000-500MB thicknesses due to marginal column temp for phase change to rain. Also, there have been some GEFS members trying to close off a low over the forum (too little-too late & too far north?). While that type of deepening is not predominant now, it seems worthy of monitoring daily trends. One of my concerns is that LR modeling in the 6-10 day range has yielded colder results recently, than what we would have thought beyond D5. 12z/20 modeling also indicates a healthy qpf event of 1/2 to possibly 1". This event is focused on the 28th-1st, but not impossible to see it begin late 27 or end on Mar 2. . Only 1 graphic for a couple of days.

Friday 525PM: Made this a combined obs-nowcast minor event thread. 509PM: Possibly my last update for the evening. Other than the low levels being a little too warm, it's conceivable that snow will be seen to within about 10 miles of the NJT late tonight with minor (trace to 2") accumulations as previously discussed ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS and I84 northward in CT. No new obs thread for this for many reasons, including minor 1-4 hour wintry event, occurring during the night when many will be sleeping and many areas melting as it hits the ground. --- Friday morning 625 AM update: 1201AM-10AM Saturday (27th). Not anticipating an obs thread since the percentage of members involved (seeing snow/sleet) looks to be rather small. Just tag it on here, whatever might occur. A 1-4 hour period of showery wet snow-sleet will probably occur across the I-84 corridor early Saturday inclusive of nw NJ, ne PA northeastward. There even could be spotty freezing rain? Minor-short duration impact, at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible in the Poconos. Elsewhere for the I84 corridor, inclusive of nw NJ, expect a Trace-3/4"; A quick change to rain occurs shortly after onset, except that change to rain in the Poconos and northwest hills of CT may not occur til ~ 10AM Saturday. Melting all surfaces once the change to rain has occurred. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping. ---- 730A/Thursday the 25th: As a friend said yesterday, winter's back is broken. 3AM - 10AM Saturday (27th), a 1-4 hour period of wet snow will probably occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain around or after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping. No obs thread, unless modeling shifts a little closer to NYC (within 10 miles). --- Wednesday morning Feb 24 640A update: Updated title to only Saturday morning the 27th, and mainly interior only. Have posted nw suburbs thread since this nuisance negligible event appears focused for only high terrain of an inch or so Saturday morning before a change to rain/melting. Might provide a bit of a minor slippery slushy hazard untreated surfaces before sunrise Saturday nw of I287, i.e. nw NJ hills/ne PA Poconos and interior se NYS toward the Catskills, and possibly Litchfield County, northern Fairfield County CT. Small possibility of an obs thread if snow occurs as some modeling tries to do to within 10 miles of NYC, but for now... not counting on that thread. This one would suffice, if this does minor snow occurs. Probably good to monitor NAM/RGEM cycles for consistent trends-if any. And the GFSv16 too, if you have access thru Pivatol Weather. V16 may be available elsewhere? If so, please share. COD? ---- 543A/23 -Tuesday. Incorporated 00z/23 ensembles and modeling through 06z/23... suggests maintaining some vigilance for a period of Saturday morning snow, probably Trace- as much 4" for the I84 corridor Saturday morning. Multiple modeling has that option. LI/NYC probably rain but may briefly start as wet snow? WPC is trying to keep us dry but i don't think that will work. My concern for a minor snow event are how close to NYC (mainly w of 287?) or possibly a little closer. There will have been a freshening of the cold prior to this pulse of WAA which will be reflected with a small mid Atlantic coastal low. Want to wait this out til the morning of the 24th to be more definitive. Modeling is all over the place and thermal profiles marginal, as so many. No ensemble prob graphic since WPC has little or no qpf (less than 0.10"). --- 628A/22: Despite some dry forecasts, my confidence in another snow event is categorical interior and likely coasts inclusive of LI. Have changed the title to Noon Friday (and extended from 6A Sat to Noon Saturday) and simplified the wording. Most of this should be Friday night-Saturday morning. I expect this to be a hazardous event on all untreated surfaces by sunrise Saturday (interior). Am even a little uneasy on the previous low chance >.25" in the title. For now , I see a 1 to possibly 6" snow event for the forum with highest totals, whatever they are, in the interior high terrain-probably ne PA/extreme nw NJ/se NYS Orange County northward. 00z/22 EC changes to rain everywhere, whereas the GFSV16 is further south and ends briefly as rain midday Saturday. Nice competition between the EC/V6 op runs. GGEM sides with the EC though seems slightly colder than the EC. My initial 20th post concerns for Thursday the 25th, seems to have evaporated due to dominance of high pressure arriving behind the southward proceeding cold front. One other note i should add: NAEFS says EC probably has a better handle than the colder model solutions. I'm not buying the NAEFS warmth for the interior, at least not at this time. This will be a big test of the GFSv16, soon to be implemented as a replacement for the GFS op (V15). --- 627A/21: WPC continues dry but as you probably saw, the 06z/21 GFS V15-16 have turned northeast. This is a complicated situation with other snow/ice options. First, it's not clear to me that something cant happen here late Thursday-Friday (25-26). The Saturday morning (27 option) may force me to adjust the window of opportunity into the 27th. That part is associated with a subtle trailing shortwave moving ENE from the Ohio Valley (WAA) behind the initial primary short wave passage of the 26th. That subtle short wave induces low pressure newd to the Mid Atlantic coast with a possible inverted trough back to the Catskills. What's it mean for NYC? Possibly a period of snow or sleet? with a better chance of snow or sleet inside of I95. Does it change to rain in the interior if it does come north- too early to know. First, I think we need this option to stick, so to speak, and then can venture to discuss this minor or moderate event? Lets give this 24 hour more of cycles and then try to isolate the wintry problem, if it still exists Monday morning, --- 301P/20: While 12z/20 GEFS guidance was delayed for full review (and therefore NAEFS), there is potential for a light or even moderate fast moving (east or east northeast) precip event. Depends in part whether the primary low crosses the St Lawrence Valley, or whether the front sags south of the forum with a wave of low pressure scooting eastward on it, as a fairly strong wave heads east from the Great Lakes. Ensembles at this writing are not favorable for much of an event but individual models for the past 2 days have proposed an advisory snow either in our forum, or south of us, across the Virginias/Delmarva. The latest 18z/20 WPC guidance basically has no qpf in our forum for this event, so it could easily be a bust. I think some wintry precip will happen here, but could be 100% wrong. Let's leave the door open for a couple of days and see if this can target a portion of our area with an inch or more of snow. If snow does occur but only I84 corridor, then there won't be an obs thread (fewer members). TBD. .

For those who like to review, as I; 12th starter thread was too warm (ice-rain) but had the option that occurred for the 18th-19th, and finally gravitated to the more wintry solution on the 15th. By the way, I am hearing now of roof leaks due to gutter jams in ne PA. Here's the event data for the 18th-19th.

Event total snow via the CoCoRaHs data and the water equiv. plus a snowpack water equiv. Looks like base snowfall 3" and max 10", Water equiv 1/4-1/2" north ranging up to 1" southern edge.

Delayed new thread til 4P. Just want another look at the very uncertain ensemble info. 27th is out of that 26-March 1 period. Rest okay.

Delayed til 4P. Want one more look. 27th out. remainder okay. Just need some useful graphics. VEERY uncertain 500MB height fields this period in the ne USA.

All of this said this morning: I don't see an end to the snow thread(t)s yet. Just not getting a persistent big ridge in the se USA and all the warming seems to be shunted south as we draw closer to the proposed warmed events. Note the southward displacements of the max snow axis in recent long range modeled further north events. The 06z/20 GEFS actually has 2-3 members of a closed low here about March 1. LOTS of spread and so, with climo, you'd think NYC so far, no advy-warnable even,t but I do think one or the other for I84 in this 26 Feb-March 1 time frame. What it is? Gotta run... i dont want to get LI/NYC coast wise of I95 disappointed and so think mostly rain there, but lots tbd. All i know, is something significant (small ensemble signal) is probably coming to our forum the end of the month and I think also in that 3/4-6 time frame. Noting the first 18 days of the month (HPRCC), above normal precipitation in our forum. Most of it snow or ice. NWS updates it flood potential outlooks March 4th, when I think we'll have a better idea of how this is all going out. For now, the CPC week 3-4 update beginning March 6 is below normal pcpn, is below normal qpf w above normal temps. That's good, lessening flood potential.

Will attempt a decently worded thread of Feb 26-March 1 at 11A. Definitely interesting potential. March 4-6 has interest but nothing on this for a few days (NAEFS). Both above may be only interior nw of I95 but winter is not done. Wetter snows (rain coasts?) with seasonable temps Monday the 22nd through the first week of March with a somewhat unstable 500 mb pattern developing.

718A/20: Dropped the 24th as the window of opportunity focuses on the 22nd, but with the second short wave possibly depositng a minor amount of nuisance snow showers on Tuesday. Timing has delayed slightly in the modeling to essentially a 10A-4P time from on Monday, with melting in NYC/LI compromising measurable chances but to I95, there is a small chance of 1" accums in a somewhat convective band of snow.

Will post a summary 3 day CoCoRaHS amounts, water equiv around 11A.

I don't know if CP can rise from #8 snowiest FEB on record, but we may give it a good try to go at least #5. Am not yet quite ready to start a new thread, but thinking on two, one 26-28; which has CFS-V16 support. Beyond Feb, March 4-6 has some nterest. (NAEFS) Both above may be only interior nw of I95 but winter is not done. Wetter snows with near or somewhat above normal temps to start the first week of March from what I can gather.

Wantage NJ (this part) 4.2" final 5PM.

Long ranging has limitations. Don’t think most of us thought this is how DJF would be. I think someone liked a snowy Feb. I like that everyone is working on this. There will be important leaps within a few years I think. That’s the science. Perhaps some as yet undiscovered relations between precursor signals

I see no change in Feb rankings. Maybe CP can pull off 0.3" more between now and the evening of the 26th? Go CP!