Jump to content

wdrag

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,077

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Winds now coming up... gusts to around 40 kt parts of LI. Power outages not... so far. HRRR may be overdone a bit? Expect the worst wind risk done by 9 or 10A. many gusts 60 MPH in se MA where over 200,000 meters out and RI is nearing 10000 meters out.
  2. wdrag
    MA now up to 10,000 meters without power. so Minor power outages responding to 40-44kt gusts Boston to parts of CC now. Am unsure how extensive power outs will be in CT/Li but staying with the forecast as presented earlier.
  3. wdrag
    What I just wrote a special group of friends I84 corridor PA-BOS. Doesn't mean it's right but for anyone in there unaware, I think it's a useful heads up. Probably offline til 5P: then driving an ambulance overnight so may not be able to post overnight, if am on a call. Good Tuesday morning (Oct 26, 2021) everyone in CT-BOS. Some are aware that there will are no power tomorrow morning as wind gusts 50-70 MPH lash that region overnight tonight, for a 2-6 hour period, particularly 11PM-7AM. Be prepared. The heaviest rain of 3.5-6" is down here in NNJ/se NYS and far ne PA. Winds there should gust 45 mph at times, taking out branches and uprooting a few ground sodden trees w scattered power outages likely. The worst CT/e MA/LI later tonight. Also, be alert for possible flooding of vulnerable small streams/basements the next day or so entire I84 corridor and also late Friday when another significant event arrives, tho less potent than todays. However, with saturated ground, the flood potential may be slightly elevated from todays.
  4. wdrag
    Updated title for damaging wind likely, strongest near sunrise Wed. This is a big one. Already 4-5" in parts of NJ and another 0.5-1.5" coming north of I78 in NJ thru sunrise Wed. Holding out for lower wind I do not think is prudent in the face of some of the short range guidance repeatedly stating 45-70 MPH gusts (HRRR/HRRRX and 3K NAM). I could be wrong---not privy to all NWS guidance-analysis but rather not err on the low side. If everyone wakes up with power tomorrow...that's a plus.
  5. wdrag
    I agree, maybe few G45 MPH around 5A... b ut also at 11A when a quick 70KT speed max at 850MB rolls westward. BDR now gusting 38 kt.
  6. wdrag
    I think the 12z 3K NAM and 12z HRRR/HRRRX will ice it for whether damaging wind occurs as now outlooked by HRRR/HRRRX, 3K NAM for CT/e LI.
  7. wdrag
    storm centered near JFK at this time. NLY wind gusts 30KT up in Kingston.
  8. wdrag
    Here are some 4+" amounts...remember, some of these reported at 6A, others at 830A...makes a big difference. All smooths out tomorrow morning when we do the two day. No SVR occurred last night in our area. However, NWS PHI now has two rivers in NJ forecast to moderate FS and many reports of rescues, and further reports 4+".
  9. wdrag
    Looking for 4 consec months. We are now, 10+ 3 consec months in NYC. NYC now as of 8AM 2.92" monthly seemingly heading for 5 by the time this is done (i think-maybe am too high?). 1.8" past 6 hrs. Wantage now at 3.57" for the storm. STP's from DIX especially too low per earlier CoCoRaHs match. So my rainfall might be a tad high but wxunderground has lots of support here in nw NJ.
  10. wdrag
    NYC heading for a 7" month of October with over 1.95" for this storm as of 7A. Seldom if ever see 4 onset months of 7+... not there yet but I think NYC heading for near 5 on this one. Added some rainfall totals... so far via CoCoRaHs and NYS mesonet. Also gusts 35-35 KT now north shore of LI as sfc low near Sandy Hook.
  11. wdrag
    I'm leaving the thread title as is.... however, I think our forum will receive a general 1-3" rain later Friday-Saturday. Models have quite a southern sweep of the trough and while it weakens northeastward through us during the weekend, too late. Inflow of PW near 1.75" has occurred and I see a 6-12 hour rain of 1-3" with leftover weekend showers topping a few spots off with possible 4" totals. Depending on what we have by sunrise Wednesday, I may include isolated weekly max total of around 11-12" Still a little early. Winds not as strong but soft ground still remains. This one looks to me to be a potential flood potential enhancer (or delayed recessions etc) for NJ/se NYS. 637A/26.
  12. wdrag
    Weatherflow Tempest is doing just fine... #'s comparable to surrounding weather underground and will review with CoCoRaHs later this morning. On-line till about 11 and then done til 5P or later. Wantage NJ so far as of 610AM 2.51". When you're in the heart of it, sometimes you like to raise amounts. Holding firm. I think much of NNJ NYC Metro and se NYS, ne PA will be around 5-6" with the bulk done by 2PM (less e LI CT). Isolated 8" by the time this is done daybreak Wednesday, somewhere with 40 miles of the NJ/NYS border into extreme ne PA border with NYS. I just need to think of the entire forum. Will rereview title in a few minutes. The wind is another story. I could see a pulse of 35-40kt gusts 10A-2P, but the real deal back breaker is the well defined southwest moving 70-85kt 850 MB jet core rotating back toward us with the storm center. Wind gusts for a 2-4 hour period of 50+ MPH gusts for LI, CT s of I84 tonight, mainly 10P-7A and that will probably result in quite a few power outages with potential for 70 MPH gusts e LI. I relied on the HRRR, HRRRX, and the Richardson # with the 3KNAM--- i t looks very rough s CT e LI. The only hold back by mets may the somewhat less than ideal sounding (not adiabatic), but turbulent turnover may win out. Be prepared for the power outages late tonight which if occur will mean power out for quite a while, and if they don't occur, it's an area for modeling improvement (or my faulty terpretation). Will update the overall thread for Friday-Saturday by 7AM. Added the HRRRX for axis of best rainfall.
  13. wdrag
    0ver 3/4" in less than 1 hr Wantage. My rain data is very close to digital output. i see over 2" in parts of ne NJ now. This is going to be bad news for parts of NNJ/se NYS/NYC/maybe ne PA too. After all the rain next 18 hours we send a bunch of wind southwest thru CT/LI to add power outages.
  14. wdrag
    At this point, I see a sizable event, slower than currently modeled but my interest is what is going on now. Just pounded 3/4" in less than hr here and i see 2+ inches to my east where a flood warning in effect. I think we've got a big problem ahead for parts of our forum. Wind rain-power. It's been underplayed too much.
  15. wdrag
    Wont change title numb ens despite being close to that for just the first storm. I think I want to see what we have on the ground by 8P Tue before I 2" to the weekly total. I think we have our hands pretty full with Tuesday-Tuesday night.
  16. wdrag
    Rainfall with the warm front was generally 1/2" extreme north to nil extreme south. Have adjusted title rainfall up a touch to 2-5", iso 8" but that's it for me at this time. Wind I expect as previously noted. Best chance for damaging wind Tue night when the storm center and associated 70kt EPS ensembled jet sweep southwest for a while. 60 kt G seems reasonable for extreme e LI Tue night...the strongest out there.
  17. wdrag
    Davis is the standard... you have one of the best. I just didn't want to take that extra cash away from family. Also, I don 't like paying yearly subscription to share data. However, Davis is I think one of the best.
  18. wdrag
    I'll trust the rain and compare to nearby stations and cocorahs. Think I'll know more at 6A. Linquenda Dr. Beautiful up here - very very very fortunate. I do not want to be disappointed but facts are facts so, should know more by Sat night.
  19. wdrag
    Hi... will update OBS thread TITLE amounts, maybe around 8P as we get going. One thing am pretty sure of... we get big wind and power outages CT/LI and am staying with the near 70MPH gusts. More when I get a new handle on everything after a day of work, and installing (w Nick Stefano and excellent support from Weatherflow help desk) new weather station. Hopefully it does well.
  20. wdrag
    Completing the circle and closing (hopefully) my weather station change. Nick Stefano and Tempest Weather just gave me be their time and necessary guidance-assistance in setting up my new tempest weather station. I feel whole again after being without rain data for 3 weeks. I hope to produce some nice graphics for our group, once we get some data an'd it looks accurate. Tuesday should be a nice test. So I went with WeatherFlow because they are a very good company, they work with the NWS with instrumentation, which is used by the local offices and NHC. So I hope this works out well.
  21. wdrag
    520AM updated the dual storm thread with my interp of multiple guidance, seen through 5AM/25.
  22. wdrag
    Loaded is probably one of the best set of short term guidance we have. Note the 24 hour amounts ending 8PM Tue (general 2+) from the SPC HREF, and the MAX potential of 7-9". WPC risks of flooding seem a little low and conservatively too far east Tuesday. Marginal risk early Tue AM and then slight risk during the day. There should be some flood problems. Am pretty sure we'll see 40-50MPH gusts ridges of nw NJ/se NYS while the coast should see gusts 50 MPH except near 70 MPH e LI...most of this during the day Tuesday, possibly ly lingering into Tue eve. Looks like a little less wind when you get down to the s of I78 but stay tuned for updates. Difficult to believe we'll escape power outages, with most widespread seeming to focus southern C... LI. Isolated or scattered embedded thunder appears likely tonight and Tuesday. Result is a high impact event , at times, for travel Tuesday in the NYC subforum.
  23. wdrag
    Topic title amounts increased (conservatively I hope) this Sunday evening and have split out the OBS thread for the first storm (tonight-8A Wed). Lots of good modeling documentation-imagery has been added previously to this thread. Keep it going. I can't add much more with any confidence til 6A Monday. I'm still not sure where the worst of this will be, but if it were winter, this storm would be getting much more press with a massive snow storm axised 90 or more miles north of the 850 Low.
  24. wdrag
    This first event is slated mainly for Monday night-early Tuesday night but with a pulse of showers, some heavy occurring overnight Sunday night and potential for bands of high wind and or heavy rain remaining in the NYC subforum into early Wednesday, depending on the departure of the eventual nor'easter. Max gust for e LI may get close to 70 MPH with wind damage 'potential' of 50 MPH gusts s of I84 in CT into far se NYS through ne NJ. Fully leaved tree branches with potential for sodden ground uproots Tuesday due to heavy rainfall and the gusts should result in pockets of power outages from simply broken branches. If it looks extensive, we will update the topic title. Max rainfall seems to be targeting CT/se NYS/NYC metro-ne NJ but proximity of max inflow-moisture transport still showing modeling variability for the primary target. In any case... it appears likely that along and north of I78 there will be periodic showers overnight with new rainfall by sunrise ranging from a few hundredths to possibly 1". After a break Monday, bands of heavy showers should be developing north and northwest into the area Monday evening and slow their northwest to west progress Tuesday before turning southward later Tuesday night. By 8AM Wed, isolated 6" rains may have occurred with a general 1.5-3" in the subforum. FF potential while initially limited by recent dryness, the rainfall rates and amounts in banding will eventually determine where any FF potential will be realized-it's just too early to determine, as of this 720PM Sunday writing. Please follow all future NWS warnings/statements. Let's see what the OBS herein tell us about the modeling by Tuesday night. Edited title rainfall up from 1.5-4 iso 6, to 2-5, iso 8. Edited title at 1025A/26 to like 40-60KT gust focused on CT-LI.
  25. wdrag
    By Saturday yes, and probably parts of CT, e Li on various elements. Will start an OBS thread for the first one with more defined expectations, probably at 6PM today.
×
×
  • Create New...