wdrag

I think we're all going to see a little snow Wednesday, some places maybe a little more than an inch. Probably no big deal on TREATED pavements- especially NYC and much of LI, but jury out on snowfall rates. What follows is my opinion expressed to a FB group of friends on what seems to be coming. I'll let this idle, hopefully for 24 hours and reconsider tomorrow morning, not wanting to pitch and roll with every model nuance. Good Monday morning everyone, It's Dec 6 and what follows is nothing major, but a caution from Baltimore northward to I84. Will detail a little more tomorrow. Before what could be a rather mild period during mid-month, we've got to get there. Looks like several hours of snow Wednesday (the 8th), beginning during the morning drive time and ending by dark; Boston probably confined to between Noon-9PM. Amounts most areas generally an inch or less, but untreated surfaces will be slippery for a little while Wednesday morning. This mood snow should be a little more than what most of us have experienced this season and might require slowing down a bit. I added a graphic showing the chance of morethan 1" of snow...for now it's not a big chance (less than 30%). There could be a short period of ice or light snow for the I84 corridor Friday morning the 10th. Posted 607A/6

Excellent considerations and we should see what happens. I do find it very difficult to believe the 00z/4 EC nada p and therefore it's tame EPS. To me, the WAA pattern induced after the 00z/7 CFP for 12z/8 should do the trick for qpf. Learning time... I tend to favor the EC inside 6 days, though I'm aware it's far from perfect...just tending to be a little better than the GFS. I like the idea of regional scores and also scores at the surface or at least 850MB (wind, temp) ... that's where it counts but of course resources and capabilities may be too meager to attempt.

As noted above 00z/4 EC and UK are much weaker or nothing. For now, take that with a grain of salt. BUT, does tell us that uncertainty continues large and prepare for less than desired. I checked the 00z/4 NAEFS and it's still on board-the bigger concern I have is the marginal thickness. I can see sleet/freezing rain as more of a problem than snow. 03z/4 WPC probs for significant snow/.ice remain the same, but that is without the toned down EPS. I sure hope the EC/EPS comes back in the next few cycles, otherwise have to think wasted thread.

Have not threaded a wind event for Monday the 6th, but fwiw... ensembles have basically a 50 knot sw flow over us Monday. How strong the CAA in the evening is somewhat uncertain. Will rereview the next several days for a shorter fuse wind advisory thread if needed.

Many models have a little snow or ice for our area next Wednesday the 8th, possibly ending as rain? WPC Friday afternoons forecast has a half inch+ of qpf for our area next Wednesday and a 30-49% chance of 3+" of snow or 1/4 inch combined sleet/snow. Click the graphics. That's not too bad for a day5-6 forecast. I may have overreached on PROBABLE hazardous???? I do think there should be a little ice, at a minimum over the I84 high terrain. The rest of the area much more uncertain. We should be close to the right rear quad of an upper level jet core centered near Nova Scotia (130 knots 200-300MB) next Wednesday (see EPS 18z Wednesday 300MB), this behind the strong negative tilt short wave departure of Monday. A weakening 500MB short wave from the upper Midwest Wednesday morning crosses into northern New England by Thursday morning. The 850 Low is north of our area. Snow thicknesses are marginal especially south of I84, so that snow amounts this far in advance are VERY uncertain and likely to be less than 3" rather than more. Some sort of light to possibly moderate ice-snow event should occur in parts of our interior Wednesday Dec 8. One consideration is the qpf being less than currently advertised which would reduce amounts. This thread is posted to focus anyone's interest into the discussion. LI-coastal NJ--- primary modeling may eventually favor your area but for now, I think the primary ensemble considerations for a 6 to 18 hour period of hazardous wintry weather next Wednesday is to the northwest of I95. TAGS and Thread title may change this weekend or early next week. 717PM/3 Dec 2021 6AM Wednesday the 8th: converted this thread to OBS-Nowcast. No other change.

Nevertheless, it is of interest for a portion of our area which should get at least some ice or snow, especially nw of I95, particularly I84 corridor. Lots of options... working up a simple thread that posts by 715P. This is not a promise of snow acc but I am thinking a winter weather advisory event is possible for a portion of our area.... VERY early, especially thread the needle but too many models wants a little ice or snow.

No threads from me regarding a possible wind event Monday afternoon-evening. GFS strongest on this but no consensus for a widespread 40+ knot event. Ditto Wed snow ice I84 corridor: The 06z/3 GFS shows us how variable the solutions for the 8th. 00z/3 EPS-GEFS cyclically continue to favor some snow or ice I84 corridor but the snow may be biased high by the standard 10 to 1 ratio applied to mixed precip. Just too early to be confident of much snow (probably would be a quick change to ice or rain), so at this time, I'll wait til this evening to rereview for consensus on this wintry hazard. Others have mentioned the same. Attached the ~04z/3 WPC ensemble guidance for a 3"+ snow event or 1/4" mixed frozen on D6 (Wed the 8th). Their probs of under 29% for our area on a D6 forecast justifies, for me, no thread at this time. Just need to be patient, shop and get some more outdoor cleanup completed, and/or put the finishing touches on the holiday lighting-preparations.

38 MPH gust at 841PM in Wantage NJ. Awaiting on threads for the 6th and 8th for more consensus. Too close to being ordinary. Hope EC is right but little worried when consensus is lacking.

Posted the snow amounts for that event in NOV thread. Ditto over 1000ft nw NJ for board accum.

No thread from myself yet for the 8th, but heading in right direction--especially just nw of I95. Graphics are: WPC 10% chance of 3"+, EPS snow depth increase in about 24 hours on the 8th, and GEFS as well. Just leery of further north, and would like GFS OP back on board, and keep the EC and GGEM on board. PTYPE might be a question as well. IF so, possible thread this eve or tomorrow morning but I'd like a little more consistency for a day 6-7 model forecast (06z/2 being the baseline here). Click graphics for greater clarity.

Added CPC's monthly outlook for Dec: available for end of month comparison just to show how difficult it is to outlook beyond 2 weeks. I don't recall CPC's October outlook for our area???? Maybe someone has the graphic. Was it below normal Nov temps and below normal qpf?

Yesterdays (Nov 30) elevated snow accumulations... most of it melted as it fell below 1000 feet. (Click for the detail) Nov ended up a little light on activity but the Nov 13 severe weather event (hail/tors) stood out. Temps skidded...from the +4.1 departure of October to the -1.8 at CP for Nov. Precip was well below normal for Nov. At 620 PM: Added November departure from normal precip, percent of normal precip, departure from normal temp and total November snowfall at a few CoCoRaHs stations.

I think a good TV met In Westchester County developed that metric 30 years ago. Of course once DEC is gone, so is at least 25% of winter. Still, there is value added.

Hopefully this will be acceptable to the our NYC subforum as the first snow. If not, then I'll need to be informed. Otherwise, we'll go for the first widespread inch next time...whenever that is???? That's what occurred with a -NAO. Slightly disconcerting.

Cool... we'll take anything we can get.

Really? Not what I saw in the link but maybe I misread?? Thanks.

The result of this thread: Overall a BUST utilizing 500MB ensemble pattern forecasts and an associated -NAO. Both troughs did not yield as desired - expected, with modeling well in advance far too threatening, eventually caving in to modest - rather paltry for the November impacts and essentially a drier than normal pattern for our NYC subforum.

Looks like only Newark through 7AM. Thanks for this link.

I think traces for sure, whether measurable- doubts

24 hour reports snow and water equiv through 920AM/28. Note 11/27 NAM was a little too heavy but the NAM/EC combo did best on sprinting a little snow eastward across the region this morning. The value of the GFS/GGEM being essentially drier in yesterdays (11/27) cycles was to not go overboard and realize that NAM/Combo might have been a little too robust. Still, from what I can tell from these reports and mPING, you can call this the first widespread light snow event of the 21-22 season. Exceedingly minor but as some other have termed...MOOD-Decorative.

CP: unlikely to have to measured. BUT, first flakes of the season via ASOS. Looks like snow began there 309AM. KNYC 281104Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM SCT023 OVC050 01/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SNE00 P0000 T00061028 $ KNYC 281051Z AUTO 00000KT 3SM -SN BKN026 OVC060 01/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SNB31 SLP127 P0000 T00061028 $KNYC 281041Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN028 OVC050 01/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SNB31 P0000 T00111033 $KNYC 280951Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC050 01/M04 A2993 RMK AO2 SNE06 SLP128 P0000 T00061039 $KNYC 280851Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM -SN BKN055 OVC075 01/M04 A2993 RMK AO2 SNB09E25B41 SLP130 P0000 60000 T00061039 58007 $

Wantage NJ 6A report: small flake snow continues despite radar. 0.2"-first measurable of the season. Probably began around 1A. 27F.

A period or two of snow or flurries should move through our NYC subforum Sunday morning, with untreated slippery conditions in some areas, especially NJ/NYS. Precipitation will tend to melt on pavement over LI where it may change to rain showers toward forenoon. A large part of any snowfall should melt during the afternoon. The most likely area to receive spotty 1 inch amounts seems to be ne PA, w NJ and the se NYS hills. MPING may be helpful for those trying to know what is hitting the ground. Also the axis of heaviest (albeit a minor light snowfall) may not be determined until 3AM Sunday as the eastward streaking snow tends to show the most favored lift region. IF (and there is still doubt since some models including the 18z GFS, are dryer) this snowfall occurs, I'd consider it the first widespread very light snow of the season. Again IFFF. This excludes the flurries that occurred Friday into Saturday morning Nov 26-27 (measurable snow did occur over the northern fringe of the NYC subforum Friday). Best lift seems to be reserved for Monday morning when the sharper trough passes through, but the RH tends to be shallower and so there may not be much, if any, showery yield. Regarding todays (11/27 cycles) RGEM inverted trough mesoscale developments over CT/e LI Monday...unlikely but not out of the question. Does CP Measure more than a Trace:? Possibly, if whatever falls doesn't melt before the 7AM observation. More likely just brooms, than any shovel.

Been flurries here in Sussex County of extreme nw NJ for past two hours. No accumulations. will mPING again.

In the mean time??? Maybe I'm wrong, but another climate forecaster pointed out what appears to be a developing stratwarm in nw NAM the next couple of weeks (GEFS). Is it true? AND, the impact on USA weather? Presuming the same delays here as always at least 2-4 weeks after occurrence (late Dec?). I am curious. Need something to jar this pattern back to something eventually more favorable for winter (after this -NAO disappears next week).