wdrag

No thread from me on the Sunday night-Monday morning event/non event. Have seen all that is spoken of above from the past 4 hours (3PM onward). EPS/GEFS give an inch or less to entire NYC subforum. WPC midday issuance has 10-29% 3+" far se NJ. This plus the 18z/EC operational is dry here Sunday night-Monday morning which all guides me to wait til tomorrow mornings model adjustments for a thread, if any. Could be a period of snow or flurries, esp LI/s of I80 in NJ but so far no sign of an 850 low with the second wave so, myself, I need to withhold the love for much, if anything. It's possible this scenario will adjust north on the 00z or 12z/31 related cycles? I am picking up on some SREF ZR- in southern NYS (BGM area) with the transition to colder Sunday. So Chicago picked up its first snow of around 2" Dec 28-29, and now with a 60% chance of more than 6" on NYD. It' going forecast is 3-5". Can that eventually happen here this winter? Hope so.

I cannot confidently start a snow thread on Jan 2-3 in our area, because of poor ensemble (EPS about zero) amounts in the I95 slot DCA-BOS, as well as no CMC operational support. Here is the 04z/30 WPC ensemble chance of ~ 3" of snow - also very-very low probs for D4. So for now, til CMC,EC,GFS sort of agree on an inch somewhere in our area, I will refrain and encourage further discussion of the risk in this current thread.

No thread on Jan 2-3, 8-10; at this time. Would like to see some consistency and other modeling join hands.

Mixed rain sleet here for a few minutes in Wantage 10-1020PM Tuesday.

So, some of the modeling has some sleet or even a snow-sleet mix for the I84 corridor tonight- don't think it will mean much except terrain above 1000 feet where a few slippery spots could develop during the night. Catskills and Litchfield Hills might be pick up an inch if snow. I've nothing more exciting than that through Jan 2. 534A/28

Iced in Wantage NJ last night. Still 31F. It may be partially clearing in a few spots so even if the thermometer reads 33-34F, we might want to be cautious underfoot on untreated surfaces (moisture refreeze due to slight radiational cooling last hour prior to sunrise). Most of the NYC climate sites had a Trace of flurries/ice pellets yesterday-garbage, but the most exciting wintry weather to talk about for NYC metro, at least through Jan 2...maybe much further beyond Jan 2? That's a reason this thread was offered. Snowfall forecast part of this thread was a bust I84 corridor- I am aware.

Still sleeting in spots s of I78 per mING 6-645P. just some spotty zrw- here in Wantage but I see Vernon reported ip. Walt 648P. Unsure how long I'll be reporting (Wantage NJ).

Disappointing about precip being negligible flurries/sw-/ipw- so far through 4P (mPing widespread, ASOS NOT), but letting this play out as posted except snowfall negligible south of I84. A bit of hazardous ice is coming, maybe a few minutes of ice pellets back to the northern parts of NYC this eve and certainly ice north of I80 excepting close to NY metro, with the late night clearing offering potential for moisture refreeze toward sunrise Tuesday. It's 30/23 here in this part of Wantage and doubt if it rises tonight. All temps probably wet bulbing down 2F by 11P from where they are/were at 4PM. Toward sunrise, it's the potential clearing sky that permits additional slight rad cooling in the suburbs for a refreeze of whatever qpf occurs.

Overall assessment as modeling monitored through 6AM Monday. Complex intermittent snow to sleet to freezing rain scenario with potential for 0.1"-0.5" measurable snow sleet NYC-LI while parts of the I84 corridor receive spotty 1 to possibly 2" snowfall. It should begin in NYC/NJ/ne PA/se NYS between 11A-2P and CT maybe between 2-5P. While treated surfaces in metro NYC should be mostly wet, caution is advised everywhere. The National Weather Service has advisories posted for the I84 corridor. I think this could be more of a problem further south in NJ. Also: the worst of this for some of our area could occur near sunrise Tuesday if it clears after midnight and everything refreezes into a frosty icy mess, especially driveways, sidewalks-steps. No thread expected (at least not yet) for late Tuesday-early Wednesday where w wintry hazardous mess is expected again-at least for the high terrain of I84 (strong mid level Frontogenesis). A few graphics to give an idea of what should occur. 631A/27

Hi! Have seen the 18z EC... still not beefy enough for me to thread, so out of respect for the group varying views, I'll refrain from a thread this eve. IF modeling from 00z/27 NAM, RGEM, GFS continues as per 18z/26 and we see a bit beefier 00z EC for nearby ice, will go with it for Mon afternoon-night and wait on the Tuesday thread segment til Tue morning (if at all) since it should be more I84. However, this attached 3PM 18z/26 EC image tells me that a bit of snow is coming to NYC but it will probably melt on contact, but it's not 100% that there won't be 0.1-0.5" in parts of NYC/LI Mon afternoon. Not sure if anyone was aware that the past two events here since the 24th have had some decent bands of qpf and so I am not dismissing the heavier modeled NAM QPF. Meanwhile we snow up here for several hours in nw NJ/ne PA before it changes to sleet-freezing rain Monday evening,. Finally: EC/RGEM is growing the FGEN wet snow band late Tue. That one slightly warmer but I'm cautious about reaching the modeled temps. Interesting minor stuff that may interfere a bit with outdoor travel Mon and late Tue or for some who want the big snows... much ado about nothing. The problem: no guarantees that we'll see big snow this winter... Jan 2-3 is still so much up in the air about scenarios. Am going to make the most of the little stuff.

I respectfully disagree... GFS is coming around on both episodes as is the RGEM. No time right now for thread. Will look at more data and probably start it at 9P tonight. I think NYC will see a little sleet Monday evening while freezing rain is within 15 miles of the city. The ice probably won't be a hazard except untreated surfaces, which is where stepping outside unaware becomes a problem. Tuesday evening is looking a bit more potent along the NYS/PA border to portions of the I84 corridor and I think that FGEN has a good chance of working some surprises.

12z/26 EC doesn't show the eastward progression that I expect. It could be too conservative. Am waiting out a thread.

EC will be my tipping point to begin a thread for mixed wintry precip episode #1 Mon afternoon-early night. IF the soon to arrive EC is more bullish, will begin the thread. I have a number of graphics ready to go. As for late Tuesday-early Tuesday night: Indeed significant mid level FGEN. IFFFF this NAM portrayal (see two attached screen shots for 10PM Tuesday) is anywhere close, it's going to be an interesting 3-6 hr period of snow that could fall at an inch an hour rate for a short time across the I84 corridor. See FGEN as modeled by the colder than most all other models NAM. Something to keep in mind as the NAM has been locked onto this idea for several cycles. I can see the Global models being too far north. Still 44/29 here in Wantage at 1PM Sunday so am still a little worried model BL is forecast too cold on Monday but will monitor trends.

NAM has been trying this for a few cycles... a second batch of precip mostly snow-sleet later Tue. 12z cycle does interest me... presuming it's mid level FGEN Tuesday. Monday WAA looks period of snow or sleet to ice (widespread) to me from Allentown northeastward to NYC-LI Monday afternoon-eve with probably no glaze NYC-LI. Of interest to me is cooling BL temps on the 12z//26 NAM through most of the cycle. Where it is trying to warm NYC...a south BL wind in precip of 10 knots or less is not going to yield the forecast temp during the precip (it will end up cooler).

Just a couple of images from the 06z EC. IGNORE the ICE northern MA as that has already occurred. By the way, 12z HRRR has a period of sleet for NYC/LI Monday evening and its 2m temps tend to be constantly too warm in my estimation. So i very much like what was placed on the nw-ne suburbs thread at 730A. What i may do is start an OBS -NOWCAST thread for our area Monday morning if it still looks promising that sleet occurs for a few minutes NYC-LI. Note the 18z Monday picture of snow crabbing into out interior (06z/26 EC), and the total freezing rain expectation of the 06z/26 EC op model by daybreak Tuesday. Images courtesy Weather Models.com and the EC Centre.

Nothing a lock and I'm no long range expert-- but the NAEFS is spreading colder air east-southeastward across the northern part of the country in early January. Cold enough for wintry mixes. Jan 2-3 as previously noted is of interest for a potentially complex sizable multi wintry element event. I did not say major snowstorm but it seems like 1/2"+ of melted wintry qpf is possible for a part of our area. NO thread yet from myself, but will rereview modeling trends late today. Have a good day!

Not threading the Monday afternoon-Monday night ice since it looks mostly I84 corridor, and modeling might be a bit too cold, given this morning's warmer than modeled start (RGEM/NAM). Will re-review this evening.

Good Sunday morning everyone in our I84 corridor. It is Dec 26-the day after hopefully everyone appreciating that we started with a bit of a white Christmas before the afternoon-nighttime melting. The next overall MINOR event is slated for Monday (27th) afternoon-night, especially the Poconos, northwest NJ as mainly some ice. It may begin as a snow-sleet mix sometime midday Monday or afternoon, and degrade to icing at night. Untreated surfaces should become icy along and north of I-80-especially at night, though I'm a little worried that the models could be overdoing the cold air with resultant marginal temps for icing. It's still quite mild as of this writing. The mixed wintry precip should arrive in CT/MA late Monday or more likely Monday night but with timing uncertainty. I added a graphic that shows the ensemble chances of icing - favoring PA/nw NJ/se NYS. The blues are chances above 50%--please check the legend for the chance near your area of interest. Beyond next week--- modeling is repeatedly saying something sizable is coming to our I84 corridor Jan 2-3 and it may be wintry for a time, even down to Philly and Baltimore. May be a bit too early for a thread on Jan 2-3.

No thread from me on Mon-possibly Wed for wintry wx, til Sunday morning at the earliest.. Enjoy the Christmas Story. I like Ralphie. Walt

I hope I set the bar low enough for NYC Jan snow -= 1/2 of the normal. I think many on here would be thrilled.

And the final TWO day snow totals via CoCoRaHs obs. One graphic and one click for clarity. A white Christmas it was/is for most of the I84 corridor including extreme nw NJ elevations with 1/2" or greater amounts still on the ground this morning.

Does the December 2021 La Nina pattern edge to increasingly wintry scenarios here, with the - or neutral NAO largely persisting through January? The results of the LaNina pattern here: The first 24 days of December showed basically less than half of normal precipitation with temps 2-4F above normal and less than half of normal seasonal snow. Persistence (little change) would be good for heating bills and general travel - free of hazardous road conditions. Not so good for winter weather enthusiasts including skiing-skating-shoveling-plowing. Monthly normal snowfall is 8.8" in CP. Added some CPC graphics at 11A. the 1 month outlook made Dec 16, and the 1 and 2-3 week outlooks made 12/24.

Pattern looks like it's evolving a little more favorably for wintry mixes all of our area I78 northward. Not threading Monday-Tuesday (yet), but it's looking messy to me. Meanwhile, the NAEFS is showing signs of much below normal cold intruding through the northern Plains into the upper midwest by early January and ensemble snow depth is modeled to increase there. That allows colder boundary layer temps to be less distant. Already many models are/were MUCH too warm at the surface for yesterdays first measurable snow in NYC and for this mornings ice event north of I80. I think the same is ahead this coming week. Suggest following the colder surface temps of GGEM/RGEM and EC through Wednesday. My expectations below for early this coming week. I think we're looking at a period of snow Monday changing to periods of sleet or freezing rain Tuesday that may linger as mixed wintry precipitation into Wednesday. It's complex but I have little doubt that more hazardous wintry weather is coming early this coming week to at least portions of the I84 corridor and even down to Easton-Phillipsburg-Chester near I78 (PA/NJ). Long Island probably escapes the icy stuff (maybe not the period of snow Monday).

ICY in far nw NJ . 31F in Wantage.

Not threading the patchy icing that will occur in NNJ by sunrise and extensively further north in CT/se NYS. Trends regarding the modeling seem to be colder as we draw closer to these events. I am not closing to the door on developments the next 4 weeks. It seems like some changes are coming... and that blocking across the pole into northern Canada is going to become broad and fairly strong. Implications keep seasonable cold here for at least two weeks, if not longer and those seasonable temps can be cold enough for snow-timing-timing-timing. 29/25 as of this 928PM writing here in Wantage NJ... going to be difficult to avoid icing here early Christmas day.