wdrag

I laugh sometimes at all the humor...it's pretty good. I like this one above since I'm a bit of an old guy, music wise. The Righteous Brothers circa 1964. I always say, don't look too far ahead. We have the next two weeks for a 'bit' of hope LI, including late tonight e tip LI. Nasty wind driven sleet and snow storm in progress now far se MA and CC. Added the seasonal snowfall (half the winter so far) for our part of the world. You can check the NOHRSC broader view in the pic within pic upper right (inset). Here's a tiny challenge? Can we double what's occurred, the rest of the 22-23 cool season??? By the way, Major cities season to date snowfall through yesterday. BOS 1.4; NYC, PHL, DCA, AVL Trace and oh, wouldn't you know it...my wife always says we should move south for snow. Atlanta 0.1". Can you beat that?

Some notes here: It looks to me like the big weekend of storm oft predicted by long rangers more than a week in advance (via upper air pattern) is going to happen for parts of coastal New England. Moral victory. My guess is a few power outages are ahead for the wind whipped wet snow laden branches-wires in southeast Massachusetts and I haven't studied what might happen in Maine. This is a big storm, just a little far offshore. I can see eastern LI getting involved in some snow-sleet-freezing rain late today or Monday morning. GEFS is finally at 24 hours coming on board. FGEN will drive some of the snow-sleet west from the MA coast later today-tonight. Bottom line, an event for the Boston area to the Cape Cod Canal. Thursday-Friday Jan 19-20 I84 corridor-Old Forge NY: Continues to look like a significant light to moderate winter storm for me. For now a messy mix of ice and snow. Many models suggest mainly ice. Ice amounts on untreated surfaces in the hilly terrain of CT and Massachusetts as well as Old Forge NY may be 1 to 2 tenths of an inch. Potential for a period of slippery travel, especially Old Forge NY and high terrain of the I-84 corridor. A manageable travel event, if you plan on a little extra time. Leading the pack for many days (IF THIS OCCURS as wintry mix for more than 6 hours) is the Canadian and all it's modeling. No guarantee this occurs as 1/4-2" of snow and 1-2 tenths of an inch of ice for I84 northward but other modeling at least favors I84 itself northward. For those south of I84, you see it as nada and I can live with that southeast of Newton NJ in Sussex County NJ. As far as more seasonably cold wintry temps: I am expecting that chillier air (colder than what we're experiencing now) will arrive here after the storm of the 23rd-24th and generally linger til about the end of the month before the first week or two of February reverts back to above or much above normal temps. I'll check back tomorrow. Have a decent Sunday and go big blue.

Hi! Please go back to the 06z/RGEM northeast region and lock on to 10/15z. Then go back 10 prior cycles for this 10z/14 time. Impressive? Note also you can do the same with total snowfall though that incorporates the entire time from init. Hope this is useful. I agree about low level... temp initializing from about 0 to -7 in the layer at or below 700MB which is nearly saturated. Bottom line, problematic modeling by most models, for something that has caused icy spots in CT and apparently Poconos. We have a ways to go on modeling. Fact that HRRR caught on very-very late, I think is partly due to obs/radar?

0.2" so far parts of nw CT hills.

I see flurries in NYC this morning. RGEM the only model to hint this. if you look back on modeling for this morning... which model had a bit of snow for CT/MA/LI this morning????? The RGEM and I think it was the RGEM only. You're invited to check back and call me on it. Certainly not the over hyped EC nor the maligned GFS. This at least is a moral victory for all who predicted a big winter event here for the 14th. Flurries are hope. Slight accums nowcast expectation today for parts of CT/LI.

I see flurries in NYC this morning. Big ocean storm already has zr- ORH earlier today. Will bring accumulative snowfall to much of e MA/far e CT by midday Monday. RGEM the only model to hint this mornings flurries. Meanwhile 19-20 depends on a couple of things, I think. This is a GEPS-CMCE (Canadian model) storm, in large part because it does not close off an upper low on the ejecting shortwave into the Great Lakes Friday. If the GEFS/EPS are right, very little snow ice. So, caution to the expectation due to diverse model opinions. I still lean Canadian. In fact, if you look back on modeling for this morning... which model had a bit of snow for CT/MA/LI this morning????? The RGEM and I think it was the RGEM only. You're invited to check back and call me on it.

And the two day snowfall for yesterday which was in the 1A-1P range of the 12th. Previous days Poconos nw NJ snowfall was posted yesterday. One error in the CoCoRaHs date..I think the 15" should be 1.5".

Looking ahead: Aside from what eastern MA and far eastern CT receive from the grazing large ocean storm this Sunday into Monday... it still looks interesting to me for our NYC subforum of the I84 corridor. You saw the spotty 1" amounts yesterday in the Catskills and nw CT, with many reports 0.1-0.7". My perception of what may be ahead and temporarily worthy of monitoring until it does its northeast winter 22-23 M.O. fade to nothing. Thursday-Friday Jan 19-20 I84 corridor. Significant winter storm compared to what we've had since Christmas, with for now mostly ice to rain I84 corridor but could see some snow involved. Potential for slippery travel, especially high terrain I84. The Canadian Model (overall worlds second or third best model) has been persistent about this occurrence since January 8th. The following week of Sunday the 22nd-Friday 27th poses one or two wintry weather challenges for the northeast USA, particularly the I84 corridor northward. LOOOONNG ways off=uncertainty on precip type.

Most of this early this morning...CoCoRaHs snow sleet accums (Click for clarity). Not shown here most of the E MA coast 0.1-2.0"

Kuchera 24 hour snowfall from 06z/12 EC OP cycle as ocean storm backing onto coast possible?

So far as of 655AM, 0.1" snow sleet and slippery all untreated surface. Temp was 32.5 prior to the start, then fell to 32.0 now. I think the NAM3K temps will be helpful today...VERY slow rise. Also I am paying attention to Tue 1/17 and especially Thu-Fri 1/19-20 as possible ice related event.

Yes, I'm still having fun on the edge of the I84 corridor! Next hope to see something a little white for the I84 corridor is midnight tonight to about midday Thursday with amounts mainly hills (1/2" or less) and maybe top it off with an hour or 2 of ice Thursday before the change to 33F rain-drizzle. All ensembles have this very minor snowfall but conservative is the way I have to look at this. 19th is of interest til modeling makes it too warm for snow or ice.

Probably won't happen, but a snow or ice involved event is possible I84 corridor though for now, would say the 19th is reserved for north of the MA Pike but a precip event seems possible. Track uncertain. GEPS-CMCE has it for now as I reviewed 00z/11 ensembles. All 24 hour positive snow depth change ensembles look slightly better beyond that (21st-26th), but that could be climo and so can't put much weight on anything beyond the 20th. If everything goes zilch, the ensemble minor 24 hour positive snow depth change I84 corridor should disappear within several days.

Unfortunately 18z/10 GEFS has NIL NYC and 1" or less remainder NYC subforum, but we have to start somewhere?

Wantage NJ 740'MSL 7" to date. Normal SEASONAL winter about 40" give or take an inch. I'll accept an inch between Thursday-Sunday here on the edge of I84 corridor, if we can be so fortunate. Check back tomorrow. Still some hope for Sat-early Sunday, but not much. It's just 96 hours from possibly sharpening a little more than modeled?

Added CoCoRaHs reports of snowfall overnight: A band into Morris County and a second area measurable e CT eastward. I'll keep checking models, especially for the unlikely event to emerge but for now... snow drought continues.

A disappointing overnight of rain instead of snow I78 with any snow on the northern most fringe interior NJ to maybe just n of I80. Nothing here in northern Sussex County NJ so far, except possibly a flurry. We stand at 7" for the season and while one 00z/9 op run of the EC suggests snow Saturday, all 00z/9 ensembles are basically less than 1" snow even I84, through the complex weekend storm. Still not a shutout on possibilities but unlikely in our area for much if any snow. Just pathetic. Can't even look beyond 1/15 for awhile til we get a broad cold 1030MB high spread across the far n part of NYS-New England.

Something I worry about: socially false record's or deep snow alarming based on models beyond 240 hours could shutter availability. Probably can't now but really need to reign it in on all boards...show more care. Eventually the models will be good enough but I think for now it's a little soon...at least until we get some cyclic consistency and other model support. So that +PNA (relaxing e Pac Jet) and trend to colder that has been discussed in broad terms for days now.... evidenced in the 12z/8 384 hr... a 1050MB high for 12z/23 attempting entry into the northern Plains. That would be a surface idea of +PNA response. It won't be perfect but 'suggests' some legit subnormal or normal cold air may eventually arrive in the northern USA. Leave it as possible response and lets see if D16-23 can in reality flush out the Pac air for a while?

I think the models are getting there but too late... warmth has arrived before this picture so its just rain except maybe an inch or 2 of snow I84 corridor Thursday and maybe a little back side. A receding high is not good news. Let's just enjoy what comes down tomorrow morning at 4,5,6,7 I84, I80 and I78 corridors.

I agree with Don 100%. This stuff fuels speculation beyond 8 days and I'm pretty sure the NWS doesn't appreciate answering phone calls from us the public, based on a model or two speculating-going bonkers for two cycles. I know I didn't when I was in Mt Holly. A couple of towns were notorious at least until my 2018 departure. This wastes forecaster time better spent on forecast model evaluatio, IDSS (decision support for EM's etc), and or focal point duties. Any chance we can self discipline and witness 3 consecutive GFS cycles of + SnowD change in the same corridor Ii84, I95, I78 whatever) with maybe at least some similar EC and GGEM support. Just needs to happen. Boards are going too heavy too far out. Again and again... please take the little ones and enjoy them. Look out the window tomorrow morning at 4,5,6A and enjoy the falling snow, whatever you see in the I78-I80-I84 slot. It's better than getting shutout D10 and your kids may like seeing a little cover on the grass. Finally: GGEM I think needs to agree about snow with other modeling before locking in. The Canadian can run a little warm but if it cyclically has snow or ice within 5 days, I think that will help decide potential reality. Thank you, Walt

Aside from tonight per the attached NWS 5AM map (northern edge might be too far north?) Next general wintry mix risk I-84 corridor is Thursday-Friday. This storm has become more complicated so confidence is low on expectations and changes will probably occur in future modeling. A little snow is possible Thursday, and then ice or snow early Friday, changing to rain everywhere. This may provide some travel slow down complications. Meanwhile for nw NJ this seems to be mostly rain. Eventually when this storm moves away later in the weekend, it may end as period of snow but any accumulations would be generally reserved for the Poconos.

Besides turning colder in the eastern USA after 1/23... for how long? I see our Long Rangers have us in a warmer than normal Feb. So I guess its just normally colder for a few days the last week of January. In the meantime measurable snow risk: Philly-NYC early Monday... a snow sleet rain mix. If any snow comes down hard enough, there might be a first measurable of the season but right now, that is uncertain and because of modeled surface temps, not likely. Wet roads.

Not correct as far as I can tell. Boston 0.2. MPO 0.1 today. Another Poconos location found on CoCoRaHs had 0.6 yesterday.

spotty 1/2 yesterday.