wdrag

528A update: OKX snow forecast remains the same this morning. Small chance NYC record 1/2" of snow...southern part of LI should have less snow than than the north. Otherwise forecast looks fairly close from yesterday. Not sure if nw NJ can exceed 3"? I think best chance spotty max 5-6" is I84 or northward, high terrain Catskills to northern CT high terrain. Take whatever we can get. Hope NYC can muster some measurable snow early this morning around sunrise or shortly after. Snow begins 2A-5A west of the Hudson River to the Poconos and Catskills; then thereafter across CT by 730AM. NYC snow at daybreak may accumulate 1/2-1" before quitting and/or changing to rain midday then may end briefly as snow toward sunset. The snow over nw NJ through se NYS and CT may accumulate as much as 6 inches in a few high terrain spots but most of the snow fall should be in the range of 3-5" there. South of I-78 in NJ, to I-I95 a period of snow tomorrow morning may change to freezing rain or rain before tapering off in the afternoon with Trace to 2" accumulations. Untreated roads along and south of I-80 and LI may be briefly slushy in the morning before melting begins. Hilly area untreated secondary roads to the nw to n and ne of NYC will be a bit slippery at times. Snow, especially during the morning commute could result in some accidents and travel delays, especially hill towns. There might be a few school districts in the hilly areas with in-person classes that may close at the last minute, especially se NYS and far nw NJ. Graphics are the OKX snow forecast and the chance of greater than 1" as issued at 330PM.

1155AM: CoCORAHS maps added for rough final analysis of the event: CT/MA only 1 day, but the NJ/PA/LI two day since some reports in NJ/PA occurred both days. CP 4.5". Also snow depth normal via NOHRSC. Shows a nice positive w-e axis along or n of 40N (I-80ish) Iowa east to NYS/NJ and the water equivalent that we want to check either the 15th or 18th. Good to have water storage in snow but let it go out slow in spring. Right now a solid 1-3" across the forum.

Agreed... especially with little melting. Once this is done, hopefully it goes out slow, not with 3" of rain in March/April. Will try to add SWE. NOHRSC seems to be inconsistently up on connectivity.

EXCELLLENT... better presentation than mine and comprehensive. Thanks.

Agreed. Overall multi model as I interpret: AO/NAO negative for the next 2 weeks at least I think and so the EPO going positive to me indicates bigger clashes of warm air trying to get into our area, eventually... not immediately upon the EPO change to +. That could be after the 18th but am not considering anything beyond the 18th till we get through this week.

Just need to take one at a time. Modeling has depressed a bit the past overnight cycle, and then the GFS op went warm and wet 16th-17th. This will iron out.

The purpose of the data was to look only at FEB ranking of snowfalls. There was probably a better way for me to focus on Feb, but that was simplest-fastest for me. This is valid for FEB only.

Tuesday the 9th: Hazardous snowfall of 2-5" for the entire I84 corridor. Mostly the daylight hours but starts ne PA/nw NJ 3A-6A; CT-MA 7A-9A. Will melt on treated roads but caution advised hills and secondarys. Heaviest NORTH of I84, especially northern CT where ~4" common. Expect 1-3" here in northern NJ possibly down to Easton PA as well. Could be a little ice I80 southward too. Plan for possible travel slowdowns. NYC-LI--- looks like snow to start but melts during the late morning afternoon and may change to rain? My take is 1/2" NYC but uncertain. I just worry about melting-like yesterday when probably more fell than the 4.5 recorded but melted-compacted due to urban heat. WPC probs issued early this morning for 1 and 4". Use-rely as you prefer. It's going to snow, even NYC but how much NYC-LI and central NJ??

Good Monday morning everyone - Feb 8! Will you become snow weary pretty soon? Appears a fair amount of wintry elements are coming the next 10 days: Tuesday the 9th, Thu-Fri 11th-12th, Valentines Day (14th as a reminder) and sometime between the 16th-18th. I think minimum 2" NYC by 6PM Valentines evening. Safest driest travel days entire ne USA east of the Appalachians are today, Wednesday the 10th before 6PM, maybe the 13th? and probably Monday the 15th. The rest, be aware and plan safe travel with at least extra time allotted if the forecast for your travel day is confidently snowy. I will parse this overview out into the threads, but this holds til I get there. Focus below is the I84-I95 corridors. Tuesday the 9th: Hazardous snowfall of 2-5" for the entire I84 corridor. Mostly the daylight hours but starts ne PA/nw NJ 3A-6A; CT-MA 7A-9A. Will melt on treated roads but caution advised hills and secondarys. Heaviest NORTH of I84, especially northern CT-MA where ~4" common. Expect 1-3" here in northern NJ possibly down to Easton PA as well. Could be a little ice I80 southward too. Plan for possible travel slowdowns. NYC-LI--- looks like snow to start but melts during the late morning afternoon and may change to rain? My take is 1/2" NYC but uncertain. I just worry about melting-like yesterday when probably more fell than the 4a.5 recorded but melted-compacted due to urban heat. Thursday-Friday the 11th-12th: Periods of snow especially PA/NJ with less certainty northern CT. My initial expectation from Baltimore northward is anywhere from 2-10" total by 11PM the 12th. Best chance of large accumulations I80 southward but who gets what?? Does look like travel problems at times, especially if the first part develops near midnight Thursday morning (or late Wednesday evening the 10th). Snow accums may only be 2" Philly to Baltimore because of freezing rain/sleet? That would place best axis of accumulative snow somewhere down across central NJ. Lots of uncertainty on details. The 10" may be high but it was initial impression yesterday and I don't drop that unless it's clearly not happening. Ensembles suggest decent snowfall and modeling may yet trend back north? This should bring NYC 1-2" for starters. Think the NAM/RGEM will be helpful on trends. No GFSv16 available (to my knowledge). Valentines Day: looks like a snow event for the I84 corridor. For a start: 1-4" maybe even NYC. NAEFS is cold! Pretty cold the morning the 15th with either wind chill near 15 below I84 corridor or widespread temps down to zero or colder I84 corridor (not that cold urban centers). Tue-Thu 16th-18th: more snow and ice coming I80 region northward. Saw the warmer GFS op but other modeling including NAEFS look colder. Graphics added: the chance of 1" or more of snow Tuesday. Pretty high chance in the orange colors. Chance of 4" or more is much less on Tuesday but graphic gives the idea along and north of I84. Also the chance of 3"+ snow on Thursday the 11th. The axis of the greens and blues are the most important... shows best chance for adverse snowfall. 623A/8

Will update thoughts on the multiple threads by 8A, and post CoCoRAHS maps around 930A and start a new OBS topic for 3A-6P Tuesday (messy LI-i78 south). Nothing for me past the 18th. My initial thinking by the time Valentines Evening is done...minimum 2" new NYC and go up from there inside of I95. Uncertainty-Reasonings will follow in the threads with nothing bombastic coming but just annoying (for some) multiple additional snowfalls.

Duo has a pair. MKC has to limit penalties. This game could be different. Anyway, Brady and Gronk are pro's. We'll see what happens. An injury could be crucial.

Yes... will not be surprised at widespread 10-20" with isolated 35 BUT... we'll need all 4-5 events (9, 11, 14, 16-17) and ~80% snow. Do think we're on our way to at least a top 10 February for NYC snowfall. Already #16 as of 4PM.

This post only to show by color coding the axis of 6+ snowfall just inside of I95 PHL to BOS (yellow-orange). I'll be posting CoCoRaHS summary maps tomorrow.

Wantage NJ this part 1.6" YTD 47.4 Snow blowed it out to the sun can unfreeze the melt tomorrow. Monitor fire hydrants and roofs where more than foot accumulated. Back tomorrow. Tough to bet against Brady and Gronk but maybe youth and speed prevails?

Still snowing nicely here in Sussex County - Wantage NJ at 217P. Just 1.5" up to about 145P.

Arghhhh And it's not over. Melting and rain e LI helped lower there. I go by NWS prediction which the past two 4AM mornings have 8 out there and of course modeling interp. Could still get 6-8" out there but probably not more than just inside I95.

NYC looks like 19th snowiest Feb on record so far, climbing. Two months tied so my interp of the ranking (at 18.4") thru 1P.

Snapshot so far of snowfall reports to the NWS that are published, as of about 1255P. Looks like a band of 5-9" just nw of I95 and 3-4 in NYC so far.

We're going to miss that bigger stuff as modeled tho NAM a little robust out here... but snow intensifying now in Wantage. Back down to 3/4 or 1 mi. I know, dont whine Walt... am not. It's pretty no matter where you are. Very much so.

859AM/14: The GGEM/RGEM are going to win this Monday battle of no precip vs freezing precip occurring. The 06z EC and lesser so GFS, are capitulating to a two part event beginning Monday morning. The 06Z EC gets this going pretty fast before dawn Monday. I'll get the OBS thread going around 9PM tonight... and to keep it simple, will combine both the front end Monday morning with the primary Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning event. Problems for us will be developing. Added NWS 09z/14 ensembles for .10 glaze and .25" glaze (threshold to begin power outages, the grow much larger when 0.50 glaze ) and added the 5AM view of NWS snowfall expected by Tuesday evening. 513 AM/14 placeholder- will fully update by 915A today. It's Valentines Day. Hope all is going well. Rain LI for this event- some of it heavy. Topic headline changed a bit to further add some detail. Otherwise, Certainly an Advisory event coming inside of I-95 Monday-Tuesday morning. There is a low probability of Watch-Warning verification ne PA/nwNJ/se NYS and N CT part of the forum for ice but questionalbe we can get to 1/2" damaging ice qualifying for a warning. I suspect there will be some damage and power outages if the furnace (borrowed from others on the forum) RGEM continues this cold but possibly below warning criteria. The GFS is warm tho its 06z version looks slightly colder. The GFSV16 is colder than it's soon outgoing GFS op and it holds to the 0.2-0.4" FRAM ice accretion for the event, which begins sometime Monday and ends midday Tuesday. I still don't have a good feel for Monday but modeling is trending to agree with prior versions(from at least back to 00z/13) of the GGEM/RGEM that our untreated surfaces problems begin Monday during the day, especially afternoon. Need more time to assess. My feeling is the leftover advisory from this morning complicated multiple confusing headlines for the NWS and the idea, take one event at a time. More later with graphics. -- 745AM Saturday the 13th update: Good Saturday morning everyone - Feb 13. Adjusted topic headline slightly to include potential for an ice storm across the high terrain, and timing, tho w uncertainty. This will more easily allow an eventual OBS thread bridge back to Monday afternoon, if needed that early. The GGEM/RGEM for Monday: I dont have an answer. Some modeling yes, others NO. Something to watch. Right now am advising friends its okay to travel midday Monday along I84 due to milder temps near freezing but this 00z-06z/13 GGEM/RGEM is a concern. Late Monday the 15th-Tue the 16th: a significant advisable-warnable extensive ice event coming to the I84 corridor where it may transition to snow. This is mostly ice and I foresee-expect extensive delays Tuesday morning, and some cancels. Unsure whether this is mostly sleet or combined sleet-freezing rain. Might even have a bit of snow with this, just north of I84 where I could see several inches in this mix. Just too much uncertainty for me to know. For NYC-I95 so problematic am not going to attempt to detail... it varies by the modeling and cycle but looks like a transition to rain LI and NJ coast for sure on the 16th. BUT... stay tuned if wind stays mostly NNE. What I think I'm seeing is the GGEM-G=RGEM drift colder early this coming week. All yours... will be back around 5P to this thread. Added one NWS 09z/13 NWS ensemble graphic: the risk of icing Monday, especially at night. This tells me a problem is coming. ---- 854AM Friday the 12th: Have no changes to the Thursday 11th updated post. Added the WPC overnight prob for 3"+ of snow which favors north of Li and lots of zr/ip/r for LI and the NJ coast. 830AM Thursday the 11th: Have not added ice storm for the 18th and extended the thread into the 19th, but will probably do that tomorrow morning the 12th after 1 more day of cycles. I think ice storm warning is a possibility for the 18th-19th in parts of the higher terrain I84 corridor but far too early to highlight, since it's also possible that the modeling is too warm-allowing for more sleet/snow - future modeling to determine. Right now it's complex with predominant ice (ice to rain LI) but may end as snow everywhere? So far no sign of a closed low slowing things any further so have to go with what we see. NAEFS turns interestingly cold in the 1000-500MBthickness to wrap this event up on the 19th. Late 15-early 17... i like a colder solution than generally modeled tho not necessarily buying into the 06z GFS op. I think NYC will see some snow acc but ice could eventually get involved NJ/LI. Modeling is pretty cold at the surface. This will be a moderate event. Advisory event or possibly even a warning event for some of the subforum. Added NWS overnight prob of 3+" of snow Tuesday the 16th..favoring I84. Also the 06z/11 GEFS with the blue line the op run and the black the mean. You see ther spread in membership. Includes qpf, 850T, 2meter T and snowfall. I'd play the snowfall low key right now, so much spread mainly due to ptype. Definitely warmer on the 18th-19th. ---- 255 PM Wednesday (10th update): No overall change. Think the 14th is probably all snow or just a touch of rain extreme southeast? By 6PM Valentines night, I think the Feb totals in NYC will have increased 1.5-4" from this mornings 19.9 value...to place the Feb NYC ranking near #11. No guarantees but I think the Valentines (late 13th-14th) event is mostly snow and generally light. I still like 1-4" as a basic starting point. Did see the GFS trying to split NYC with nothing, but relying a little more on the GGEM and ensembles for this assessment. Tuesday the 16th: I know there is potential for ice all the way up to I84... but the front end thump of snow should be decent and I could see this event remaining all snow far nw NJ to nw CT and 6+ continues to be what I'm thinking, at least along and north of I84. Axis of heaviest snow ice is debatable as is northward ice encroachment but overall this looks to be a fairly cold event. Thursday the 18th into early 19th: Challenging... at first glance looks warm, but if you look at the GEFS and some previous operational runs, one can envision a closed 500MB low developing in TN/MO/ARK and then from there??? slower, so that we have a somewhat colder subdued event the 18th and may have to wait for a big qpf event til late 19th or 20th (outside this thread), instead of as progressive as now generally modeled. One question i would have... would that closed low be able to translate newd the eastern Great Lakes or... across the Mid Atlantic? Lots of speculation on my part, and maybe it just comes out bodily as now implied (18-19)? Just bringing up the complexities I can see. No matter, more ice/snow/rain...take your pick and for now I would have to favor rain LI/coastal NJ or brief snow-ice to rain there while, interior?? maybe lots of ice? ------- 808A Wednesday (10th) update: No overall change. This is the thread that dove tails with the 11th-13th thread. The 13th event, however it evolves will probably end up with a decent amount of snow on the morning of the 14th and so am continuing the widespread 1-4" idea (even LI-NAEFS rather cold there). Modeling has trended a little colder (blocking) but not necessarily a big coastal, but some WAA snow. 16th: looking more significant than the 14th. I think it's still cold enough for a front end thump of snow. Ice/rain may eventually get involved NJ/LI but where all snow, seems like a decent chance of 6+, probably I84 corridor, but even LI has a chance of at least a light snowfall prior to a phase change. 18th: may be the biggest qpf event of all 3 with a more southerly track of the trough and a GMEX scoop of RH (18th-early 19th?)BUT, that one seems somewhat warmer... so more problematic for maintaining entire wintry elements, but possible. The good news: IFFFFF this one is pretty big and more of a southern streamer, there is a "chance" it will re-energize the block near 50-50 for subsequent events after the 21st. ?????? Cross that bridge after the joy of tracking too many small-moderate events that offer snow/ice to the forum. A lot to track and maintain an unwavering perspective of what may happen (minimizing big changes to thinking as the models sort it all out). Added the WPC ensemble chance of 3"+ of snow for the 16th. Small chance we'll be #10 ranked Feb snowfall in NYC CP by the end of the 16th. Depends on amounts 11th, 14 leading up the 16th. 547A Tuesday the 9th: Complex and seems to be trending a little warmer so that LI and s of I78 are problematic on much snowfall, with snow/ice mostly nw of I95. Could even have events change briefly to rain over the interior of the subforum. How they evolve...uncertainty. I still think something on Valentines Day and then 1 or two events 16th-18th. Ensembles favor mostly the 16th-18th and give the subforum snowfall especially nw NJ but the trend on amounts is somewhat less. Am cautious since some of the blocking may be relaxing. CFS is comparatively warm and wet and that's bothersome but am unsure how accurate CFS is. For now considering it another member and have to mention this option. All could turn out a little snowier close to NYC but for now, that is not a lock. 815A Monday the 8th: I think we're going to have to see some snow here on Valentines Day I see the warm GFS but for now think its too warm). Amounts uncertain but its pretty clear to me that WAA and short wave coming into the area, then shoots off to the northeast own the 15th, but leaves behind maybe?? the coldest of the season here on Monday morning the 15th. Either wind chill near 15 below I84 corridor or widespread temps down to zero or colder I84 corridor (not that cold urban centers). Tue-Thu 16th-18th: more snow and ice coming I80 region northward. Model uncertainty is large. I'm thinking colder with the precarious balancing of southeastern USA warmth trying to heave northward at times against the generally blocked colder pattern across the northern USA. Rain could be invoked with this. --- Initial post from 2/7 midday. Have included rain in the tags, because we're close to having rain ,at times, within the overall cold enough pattern for snow and Ice, mainly along and northwest of I95. QPF this 5 day period should be in the range of a general 0.5" minimum, to possibly a maximum ~1.5". How much falls as snow, ice, rain is unknown and debatable. Multiple ensembles offer plenty of snow in and to the west and north of our subforum. Favorable blocking for northeast snowfall appears to remain through this period, and well beyond. Am witnessing via modeling and reality, a balancing of the cold core from southwest Canada to the northern Plains and Great Lakes shooting off pieces into the northeast USA, then on into the north Atlantic. These reestablish-reinforce the blocking -NAO from northern Canada to Greenland, and, following each pulse of CAA that moves through our subforum, there is WAA ahead of the next short wave. So far, the cold core has not broken off in total, to change the pattern and so, the snow opportunities continue on and on. February is already off to a special start and we may be heading for a top 10 snowiest February (see attached February Central Park ranking and year). Will narrow the goal posts on these possibilities for this 5 day period as we draw closer. My most confident period of something significant-substantial is the 16th-17th, but I have to consider some of the modeling that likes Valentines Day for an event and also the 16th-17th, delayed a day til the 18th.

Wantage NJ SB 811A, in earnest 845A and 0.3" 10A. Treated roads wet becoming slushy on sides. 24.8/19.8

Climate experts - Don, Bluewave et al, How to handle this? Could be moot by the 17th? Who knows the final amounts in CP today... let me speculate on NYC forecast 6" per their 4AM forecast. 6" would bring the 7 day total to 21.4 That would be 34th in this list.... However, I think this misses the monthly events truth... I'd rank 13th? How would you handle... ? Thanks, Walt Dec 1947 29.2 Jan 2016 27.9 Feb 2006 26.9 Jan 1948 26.8 Jan 2011 24.2 Jan 1996 22.9 Feb 1899 22.5 Feb 1994 21.8 Jan 1935 21.7 Jan 1873 21.5 Dec 1872 21.5 Feb 1983 21.5 GUESS today 21.4

Wantage SB 811, in earnest 845... Tracę now and 26/16. treated roads wet.

Flurries began in Wantage at 811A. 26/10

Threads continue through the 13th, and probably adding something for the 16th-17th centered later today. This seems a bit unusual to have so many wintry events in a 2-3 week period but am enjoying. Snow pack should continue here through at least the 17th.