wdrag

We can probably benefit from normalizing.in the historic database. Tor Emergency first used 1999. Reports_ Concerted effort by NWS offices to verify warnings using all sorts of data sources, with social media contributions in recent years likely adding to the recent counts. TOR eval techniques improved, including use of building construction, and Doppler data to the strength values. Perspective-normalized would help.

Warming cycle of recent years-- and then yesterday, I think SST positive anomaly may have added a little juice-energy. Attached this mornings analysis.

NO thread, as yet, on inside runner (e Great Lakes) strong wind event around Nov 22-23.

Part doppler related, part greater comfort issuing.

Part Three: tonight and Monday. A band of showers will cross the subforum. Amounts generally light altho show intensity in some areas will be briefly (a few minutes) moderate or heavy. This showers will change to briefly minor accumulating wet snow terrain above 1000 feet in ne PA, extreme nw NJ, se NYS, nw CT. The showers will probably intensify as they cross eastern LI early Monday. Slight chance Thunder there. Monday... rather deep short wave crosses the area with scattered showers or sprinkles, except flurries I84 corridor higher terrain. Of interest is modeling attempting to generate thunder E LI Twin Forks newd, during midday. Three-Four Day CoCoRAHS rainfall totals will post Wednesday. (12th-15th stretch).

Excellent posts yesterday. I won't reiterate the SVR, except to say this 'potential' was modeled at least 36-48 hours in advance. HRRR Cape, lightning, hail, supercell composite. I have attached Part ONE rainfall of the 3 embedded event of the large eastern USA trough. Click for greater clarity. I'll add part TWO later this morning and the two day totals.

Sting Jet: Usually with bombogenesis, especially extreme. Our satellite from midday yesterday on. Compare with sting jet satellite second link below. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=240&dim=1 https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/archives/26650 Wikipedia probably has a pretty good set of info and schematics-composites. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sting_jet#/media/File:European_Windstorm_Conceptual_Model.jpg Yesterday was considerable instability with southerly low level flow of moisture advection associated with the second of the strong short waves rotating newd through the ne USA grabbing some of the strong winds aloft. When we get a sting jet (100 MPH swath south side of a bombogenesis cyclone), a rare occurrence here, we won't like it. BIGGGG damage.

Should be very large hail just northwest Wananque NJ where DVIL over 40.

Post away as it keeps going. Storms producing multiple reports of hail up to 1/2” diameter. This via MPING

Pea hail from a DVIL storm of about 8. When DVIL increases, hail will be larger.

MPING pea sized hail w NJ now

Thunderstorms w NJ now.

No thread for Thanksgiving week (monday-Wednesday before)... too much variability but a storm is likely.

Agree w Bluewave above... I'll probably be off line 8A-5P-- hope you have action. I may chime in from Taylor PA near AVP if an when snow mixes or accums. Follow your own model guidance and that of the NWS-SPC. We're not done yet, Part Three Sunday eve-Monday, especially I84 snow showers and minor accums.

Going to be interesting, esp CT. Here is SPC D1 outlook (MARGINAL RISK SVR). No other changes to Part Two expectations. I do expect hailers especially C- eLI, maybe back to to NJ/se NYS, with minor snow acc Poconos, Catskills, Berkshires.

Edited thread topic 626PM for your possible use. Seasonably interesting showery weather coming, MUCH cooler Saturday night. Most of the interesting action should be I80 region northward.

Several more reports today, courtesy LSR and associated platforms.

I see Southold on e LI .. mesonet G52 MPH.

So far, ho hum. Damage and wind gusts as more or less modeled.

Wantage NJ... max g 27 MPH with the line on radar. Differences in precip.. Ambient .46. Tempest 0.55. Go with the more conservative. Running side by side tests.

Please follow NWS statements on the potential for SVR midday Friday. Otherwise, scattered showers develop near midnight becoming bands of briefly moderate to heavy showers during the daylight hours, ending from west to east by around nightfall Friday. Rainfall generally in the 0.4-1.5" range;. Iso 2.5" possible. Gusty surface winds to ~40 MPH BUT please follow NWS SPC on the marginal potential for an embedded SVR storm, even Tornado, due to the strong wind fields aloft and marginal instability for connecting to the surface. This latter SPC threat is the primary reason for beginning this OBS-NOWCAST thread. EDIT: 444PM/11: Guidance seems to be ramping up surface gusts I95 eastward midday Fri...gusts 50 MPH. The above is part ONE. (edit 626P/12 Will post CoCoRaHs data as best I can around 8A Saturday) Part TWO is Saturday--- a 6 hour period of colder notable showers. Edit 444PM: Modeling (some) is trying to focus energy (CAPE etc) for a thunderstorm vcnty NYC. If that happens, hail would also be possible. [EDIT 626P/12 Part Two is on for Saturday midday-afternoon. HRRR has a 'chance' of thunder north of NYC... but its modeled guidance suggest T might occur down to NYC. Slight snow acc Poconos midday Saturday.] Part Three is late Sunday-Monday with potential for general light precip with embedded moderate, and even some minor wet snow accumulations highest terrain northwest of I84. Let's focus on Part ONE when it arrives Friday, and we'll get to separate OBS threads, if needed, for parts Two and Three, if that is okay with everyone and if needed.

I see two events coming in an 84-96 hour period between the 12th-15th. First one is the larger rain event of 3/4-2.5" on Friday. The second for now as a CFP with a period of showery precip late Sunday or early Monday. The first high amplitude 500MB trough lifts northeastward and weakens across us, but plenty of jet, so it won't surprise with iso SVR Friday but for now, indicators are mediocre. The second short wave looks pretty strong for next Monday.

Not threading yet. High amplitude trough with several shortwaves behind the initial central USA portion on the 12th. IF we can get something to dig behind it and come out of the large scale trough - negative tilt - on the 14th, we'll be in business for a two part event, strong southerlies and associated heavy weather late 12-13, and possible ne USA coastal rain ending as snow or flurries 14 or 15. Just too early for me to commit on anything out of the ordinary, be it more than 3" of rain in parts of the NYC subforum, or first flakes (cor from auto speller) to NYC with accums as far down as just south of I84. Just too early for me to be sure but it's sort of been on the boards for a day or so of modeling.

No thread on 12-14. Too ordinary with varying speeds of fropa rainfall. While no thread, I still will watch for a slower evolution and more intense elements than currently ensembled/operationally modeled. Have a good night, Walt

Nov 12-14 (next weekend). One or two events, with a high amplitude trough central USA progressing through the eastern USA. No thread yet, since could still degrade to relatively routine 1-2". The pattern to me suggests a warm wet event with potential for either or both (in parts of the forum-especially I95 corridor eastward),damaging wind southerlies or a line of isolated-severe storms later 12th or 13th. SST warmer than normal. There seems to be a second shortwave that reenergizes this high amplitude trough as it crosses the east coast around the 14th. It's possible there will be a northeast USA coastal reflection that could bring a period of colder rain on or about the 14th. The two combined (if indeed they both occur) could deposit spotty 3+" of rain. Routine? Too early for me to discount something that will generate LSR's sometime between the 12th-14th. After that--- sure seems modeled decently for a trough somewhere in the central or eastern USA and a ridge in the west, the last two weeks of the month (ensembles) and CPC week 3-4 issued yesterday. Edit at 639AM: Just saw the 06z/6 GFS OP. If this continues in on the 12z/18z cycles and other model ensemble agreement, will begin a thread sometime this evening.