wdrag

Did I miss an announcement? I like the updated look of American Weather... unless I inadvertently hit a key? Definitely improved.

Just had about 2 tenths of an inch in a few minutes here in Wantage Nj with a rainfall rate approaching 1"/hr. So that's in the yellow. Going to be a wet one for parts of our area today.

The evolving pattern this coming week is continuing to model high CAPE (Heat Index NYC metro non-marine influenced near 100F) Tue-Wed and even Thursday afternoons with enough wind aloft and instability to permit one or 2 days of SEVERE storms in our area. Tuesday SVR appears relegated North of I80 (mainly NYS/CT). Wednesday to me looks like a potentially big day, especially I80 region northward with TT in the lower 50s, big CAPE. Thursday into Friday: Uncertainty on evolution but big CAPE and instability probably remain in the vicinity of our subforum. It too could be a severe day, however of interest is the eventual position of the frontal boundary. IF, it drifts down into our subforum with light north-northeast flow north of it, then it seems to me the projected path of decayed ELSA wind fields and moisture plume - convergence (925-850MB southerly flow overrunning a cool frontal boundary, ranging up to the 200MB RRQ of jet located in se Canada) would promote the potential for a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) as documented in research by NYS associated well known mets. Have added a couple of their composites. These 4+" events occur 24-36 hours in advance of the TC, located hundreds of miles north or northeast of the TC even though the TC itself can miss to the south. If it doesn't and tracks over the PRE then that magnifies the potential sub-basin (mesoscale) trouble. As we are aware, we're starting to pile up the water across our subform so this potential result-NOT guaranteed, should be monitored and we'll see if it can occur, fritter, or displace north of our subforum. I'm doubtful if the potential displaces south of us. My guess is we'll know by Tuesday or Wednesday. In the meantime, I think we can expect severe storm wind/hail in parts of our area during midweek, along with possible storm cluster FF in PW air of 1.6", and probably should monitor the evolution of ELSAs ensembled wind fields up this way. Composites are added, as well as 00z/3 EC PWAT for late Thu (showing the TC well south but PWAT axis up near here). This is imperfectly modeled, the speed and location of ELSA and associated wind fields will adjust and affect the results. Let's see how this may breakdown and whether or not we can pick up ISOLATED 4-6" new rainfall between Tue-Fri in parts of our area-ISOLATED. WPC went to press this morning with a general 1"+ for our area, which supports embedded isolated heavier. You probably recall around the 28th-29th they had our entire area 1.5" for the current ongoing event with general 2"+ central and S NJ. Appears they did quite well. 638PM Monday July 5- EDITED Title to include ELSA- Too much modeling is drifting its track within range of coastal NJ and LI for Tropical Storm considerations Thu night-Friday AM. While it's not certain to make a direct second landfall across LI/southeastern New England, think it best to open the door a little more, at the least for 4+" rains this week combined convective outbursts and whatever Elsa.

Let's add on: Some of these entire thread event #'s will be big in our subforum. Isolated max rainfall 1-1.5"today and again tomorrow, embedded within bands of showers, especially where some sun can break through and warm it up a bit. IF it's thunder, especially 2P-8P, could be some small hailers, and I think a better chance for small hailers tomorrow afternoon when it heats up a little AND gusty northwest winds to 40 kt possible ne PA/NJ/se NYS where we start getting on the back side of the trough. Added on PRELIM event rainfall via CoCoRAHS only.

Good morning! Lot's of action spread out over the next 7 days. Will comment on the weekend in the specific thread and and begin a SVR/PRE thread for Tue-Fri AM by 8A.

No Elsa thread for me, yet... will more carefully reevaluate tomorrow morning. 00z/3 EPS northward drift will prompt.

Here you go on 3.5"+ for today only..., near s Nyack. Weather Underground. Digital storm totals and Wx Underground support each other.

Wantage NJ had a real rate of almost 4"/hr around 830P. rainfall today 1.42, with 0.8" in less than 30 minutes this eve. Added SVR reports from this afternoon...D3 of SVR in our area... might have hailers this weekend? and looks to me like spotty 5-7" rainfall on digital storm totals past two days near NYC. Numbers should be impressive. Overall, seems to have been well modeled by the GFS operationally at thread issue time and prior. EC was a little slow to catch on, as it may be with Elsa? More tomorrow morning. Have a night and hopefully you're not flooding. Walt

No Elsa thread yet but checking again after 8p tonight. PRE and nearby Elsa now on GFS and GGEM overnight cycles but Storm missing on EC op???

No ELSA thread yet, if ever for me on our subforum, since EC op doesn't show anything significant. GFS/GGEM do, and a possible PRE as well. So for now, am reluctant to confidently comment on tropical occurrence here. If others are confident we'll get some sort of moisture contrib., go for it. Will rereview after 8P tonight.

SVR ydy primarily I78 south, not as far north as modeled-expected when the thread started. Pathetic rainfall so far few spots far nw NJ (under 0.2" so far) but elsewhere, amounts will continue to add up through the 4th. Will review totals this weekend. No time to follow up today. Thanks for your posts. Suspect some impressive #s still possible in the forum by Sunday night.

Can’t post much prior to 7p. Interesting 48 hours ahead. Severe watch should be out soon

Summary of reports to 5AM this morning. Not quite as extensive se NYS as anticipated but something and I see 1 report on W LI looked pretty serious. Rainfall not as extensive. Will add the rainfall numbers on rainfall for the multi day event on Sat morning after a lot of this ss complete. Also appended the SPC epredawn SVR threat area, mostly NJ/LI. Overall: we have the current band northern PA extending into MA. The real deal, of whatever is to happen should be 4PM-9PM for NJ/LI..progressive. After that, evolution uncertain for Fri-Sat and maybe even Sun?? Probably not enough to meet general modeled (widespread 1.5"+) expectations from several days ago. Personally cannot add much if anything prior to 430P... hopefully you'll have something of interest by then.

Watch northern PTN of NYC subforum

My 93.4 at 740'MSL in Wantage NJ is the hottest recorded here since July 2, 2018 (94.1).

Doesn't mean lots of BIG storms but does indicate some have weather ahead.

Might be an interesting next 6 hours (gthru 8p?) as in my mind, the apparent remnants of Danny circulation act upon a narrow band of downstream convection vcnty PIT- possibly Scranton. FFW's upstream. Hilly terrain out there. Otherwise, please follow SPC expanding area of Watches and NWS warnings-LSR verifications.

So, impacting post event analysis... a couple of demo's this morning and why i think there is room for improvement, adding WXUnderground data for some sort of filtered ingest into radar and sensor evaluations. Pea sized hail occurred in Pike County as I recall so some of the radar data there may be a little high. Ground truth... still primary and the multiplatform mix needs further improvement. Examples follow for Pike County PA and the Indianapolis metro area this morning. Pike County PA: I saw several reports of 1/2" qpf yesterday in Pike County PA, but CoCoRahs has no reported OBS. Indianapolis: Radar eval looks a little low this morning per the reported CoCORAHS data.

Invest modeled to turn northward for a possible USA landfall in early July and is it far enough west to contribute to PWAT up here the second week of July?

I've a question to tropics group... no answer as of yet but as I'm seeing it.... remains of Danny vort lowest 300 MB (700, 850, 925) is somewhere in W TN/w KY this morning, ready to be absorbed ahead of the approaching front. Wondering if it's enhanced wind convergence is driving the band of heavy showers along I70 of southern IND into w central OH. Could be a forgotten player in heavy rains NJ-Delmarva tomorrow? Doesn't seem to have much high dew point pooling but the wind field does look like it might be a contribution well in advance of the front. Early morning qpf out there nearly 2".

Anyone still tracking Danny remains? Sees like somewhere down in TN/nw AL this morning???? Is that correct?? Thanks, Walt

Have added the 833AM SPC outlook as mentioned by Crossbow above. My gut is telling me a big day is ahead for southern NYS/CT breaking down along I80 this evening. Time frame 3P-9P, with NYC last around 7-9P. Big CAPE to our north is my flag, but the HI down here and yesterdays lead severe which I think everyone will admit was further south than predicted are my concerns for bigger this far south. Slightly stronger wind fields than yesterday as well. Also, fwiw, se NYS and ne PA picked up some 1" clusters of storms yesterday as we'll soon see via CoCoRAHS and already in the mesonet data (1.3" max so far). This post worked as normal-thank you.

Good Wednesday morning everyone, No significant changes to the WPC rainfall/severe weather threats as posted yesterday. We shall see what happens. I'll tend to be around today-this evening to comment, not so Thurs-Fri DAYS. There was 1 minor damage in the Bristol CT area yesterday (our official forum coverage area). I'll post the CoCoRAHS rainfall for the past 24 hours, around 10A with brief heavy showers nw NJ yesterday afternoon, and then last night across interior se NYS into sw CT after midnight.

Not easy to post w an image for me. Have to do some redo's. Warnings extreme ne PA and ne CT but no svr our forum. Spotty heavy showers extreme nw NJ with up to ~3/4" seen in the data between 2-445P. Saw pea size hail in an mPing report sw of Port Jervis. Wantage heat today of 92.5 at 740'MSL is hoter than anytime last summer.

Anyone having problems posting words with their graphics? Unsure what I'm doing wrong. Has something changed?