wdrag

I just get a little concerned when our NWS (Federal Public) services, which i know are provided by dedicated intelligent science friendly people are compared to the private sector, especially when NWS-DOC is dedicated to sharing-expanding the weather industry. The comps can be done private to private, but I think for an estimated $8/year tax payer dollars... the Federal return is pretty good. The NWS will work together with all sectors, no matter the situation. Civil Servants. I could have ignored this, and had I been a NWS manager, would have. But in retiree mode just thought it might be good to voice.

Just a note from a retired NWS forecaster this is not NWS supported, especially since the NWS is part of the Department of Commerce, developing the weather industry. These are my own words and I know would never be supported by anyone in NWS management. So, the following probably is of no bother to anyone who was not in the NWS. I am slightly irritated by TV mets comparing their accuracy to the NWS. You can bet the NWS lays out the ground work for all media through it's extensive quality controlled data gathering, model productions-international availability, and forecast/watch-warning-advisory-statement production, 24x7 365. While it may be true at times that the private sector is superior, I do know the NWS is a group collaboration, forecasts constrained at times by differing opinions (forecaster biases) and attempts to produce a useful product via the ONE VOICE method, to the benefit of not only metro regions but the rural sectors (ALL of our USA). Their must be another way to display competitive superiority. This certainly differs from the private sector which often can offer a differing (probabilistic?) opinion using whatever resources, such as we do here on this forum. Overall, this is small potatoes but I thought it good to voice my small concern. ps...1/22 7A: noted an improvement in advertising this morning. Thank you.

Good Morning--- wasn't sure where to place this... I'd like a little immediate visibility for this written conversation with the ECMWF yesterday - January 20, 2021 - and then you take and run with it as you wish---just strongly recommend that we are are realistic about limitations of snowfall-snow depth on the EC model. This speaks only of the ECMWF and EPS. As some of us know there has been discussion about various vendor depictions of snowfall. My recommendation is to take the lower value of EC snowfall. Snow depth on the EC is a good lower end check and may in some ways if initing at zero depth, represents a total positive snow depth change as seen via tropical tidbits, which I like to use as a baseline for accumulations. However, I'm still unsure how sleet is treated in some of the vendor depictions but if it's 10 to 1...its wrong, probably ~70% inflated. Here is how the ECMWF group handles snow/rain/ice pellets (PL or sleet in the USA-) Note the UK calls a rain-snow mix as sleet, a different approach there. I'll place this in the Model Thread as well so it's there as a reference for the future. Ice pellets are not stored as such in the model but reach the ground as a mixture of rain and snow, and it is the proportions of those that are present, and the type of surface onto which the ice pellets are falling, that will determine how the accumulation on the ground works. Similarly if there is already snow on the surface, then it depends on how deep the snow there is modelled to be, what it's density is, and what the air and snow temperatures are. In short there is a lot of scope for forecast snow depth on the ground to go wrong, and this is particularly true if you have ice pellets or (UK style) sleet falling, or if there is already a lot of snow on the ground. And known (extraneous) systematic errors in the handling of snow depth on the ground, relating mainly to there being only 1 snow layer currently in the IFS, do not help at all. So unfortunately there really is no rule of thumb (like 10:1), and this evidently stems from many issues. Ordinarily ice pellets would, I think, change snow depth on the ground via a ratio that is rather less than 10:1, but that is about all I can say. The deterministic ECMWF model (HRES) and the ensemble (ENS) both behave as described above. So I doubt this is the answer you were hoping for, but anyway please feel free to read further on such topics in either the Forecast User Guide (e.g. here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/9.7+Precipitation+Types - second sub-section in particular), or in our listing of known model issues (here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Known+IFS+forecasting+issues)

Good Morning--- wasn't sure where to place this... I'd like a little immediate visibility for this written conversation with the ECMWF yesterday and then you take and run with it as you wish---just strongly recommend that we are are realistic about limitations of snowfall-snow depth on the EC model. This speaks only of the ECMWF and EPS. As some of us know there has been discussion about various vendor depictions of snowfall. My recommendation is to take the lower value of EC snowfall. Snow depth on the EC is a good lower end check and may in some ways if initing at zero depth, represents a total positive snow depth change as seen via tropical tidbits, which I like to use as a baseline for accumulations. However, I'm still unsure how sleet is treated in some of the vendor depictions but if it's 10 to 1...its wrong, probably ~70% inflated. Here is how the ECMWF group handles snow/rain/ice pellets (PL or sleet in the USA-) Note the UK calls a rain-snow mix as sleet, a different approach there. I'll place this in the Model Thread as well so it's there as a reference for the future. Ice pellets are not stored as such in the model but reach the ground as a mixture of rain and snow, and it is the proportions of those that are present, and the type of surface onto which the ice pellets are falling, that will determine how the accumulation on the ground works. Similarly if there is already snow on the surface, then it depends on how deep the snow there is modelled to be, what it's density is, and what the air and snow temperatures are. In short there is a lot of scope for forecast snow depth on the ground to go wrong, and this is particularly true if you have ice pellets or (UK style) sleet falling, or if there is already a lot of snow on the ground. And known (extraneous) systematic errors in the handling of snow depth on the ground, relating mainly to there being only 1 snow layer currently in the IFS, do not help at all. So unfortunately there really is no rule of thumb (like 10:1), and this evidently stems from many issues. Ordinarily ice pellets would, I think, change snow depth on the ground via a ratio that is rather less than 10:1, but that is about all I can say. The deterministic ECMWF model (HRES) and the ensemble (ENS) both behave as described above. So I doubt this is the answer you were hoping for, but anyway please feel free to read further on such topics in either the Forecast User Guide (e.g. here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/9.7+Precipitation+Types - second sub-section in particular), or in our listing of known model issues (here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Known+IFS+forecasting+issues)

Hi! More action possible. Three storm opportunities 28-30, 31-Feb 1, Feb 4-5 -- this last may be more rain, then any snow as 500MB heights try to warm above normal along the east coast. May be good for one of our leaders to start a Feb thread pretty soon? I'm pretty sure members will be commenting on the potential as we always look to the next.

I'll do a wrap up snow amounts for the week either Friday or Saturday at 10AM as a second episode occurs midday today - Friday, just north of I84 where a few of our members live. Dustings to possibly as much 1" possible by Noon Friday, with the Litchfield Hills and Catskills most favored. (I'll toss in the prelim week summary CoCoRAHS graphic by Noon today).

The modeling variability continues. Topic update is as follows, subject to considerable debater I'm sure. Go for it. I'll check back at 4P. Fingers crossed. Topic reedits 630A/2: Added widespread to the topic title. Uncertainty continues, especially northern extent of 2+" with I84 somewhat in doubt because of the last 24 hours of GFS depressed cycles. However, the GGEM/GEPS, and especially the EC/EPS have come back north since the 00z/20 cycles. NAEFS is still south, and one can debate if the event lasts into Tuesday night but overall, the topic stands as is, with considerable debate on what happens. I've added the latest WPC probability of 1/4" melted w.e. frozen which you can see has trended higher and more expansive and i think that is correct. It does not match some of the WPC prior to 08z/21 qpf which looks slightly lighter but going with the WPC frozen prob, because of the GEPS and EPS. My take at 6A/21 Travelers into the northeast USA Monday-Tuesday the 25th-26th: Still considerable uncertainty on how this all transpires but we should be aware that an extensive hazardous wintry episode is expected for all untreated surfaces, especially the I84-I80-I95 corridors from Baltimore to I80, with less certainty I84. The front end Monday start time is uncertain. It could start for a couple of hours Monday morning then stop for 12 hours. The bulk of this event probably occurs Monday night into Tuesday the 26th. Odds favor a change to rain or ice along the I95 corridor Tuesday morning the 26th, but mostly snow northwest of I95, especially the I80 corridor northward. There is considerable uncertainty on where the primary snow or ice event will occur in the northeast so its good to be aware of the possibilities but no action recommended yet, unless you're headed to Baltimore-Philly where messy slippery wintry elements develop by Noon Monday. Have a day!

Hi! 12z/20 NAEFS still south with qpf everywhere but I think thats' due to the GEFS not being robust. Maybe tomorrow it will all mesh a little better. I'm not into any 10+" amounts at all for this event (just dont think that is a high probability) but i can see widespread advisory conditions I95 corridor northwest to I84, maybe an embedded swath of lower end warning amounts. Have to keep moving and will reevaluate Thursday morning and at that time include some info from the EC.

Early but encouraged that the 12z/20 GGEM has come back... whether that's correct I don't know, but I think it's correct. As noted earlier in the thread... the 12z/20 UK is on board big time, but for the UK, thats past 96 hours...not so reliable and just previous-now, the 12z/20 EC is back where it was and so... waiting it out. Will comment around 4P but I'm encouraged we continue on track for a widespread wintry event. Thank you to the 12z/20 GGEM, EC and UK op's. Unsure what is going on with the GFS the past two cycles and no para to check. Have to move on with the NAEFS and EPS as best we can. Won't tidy up the topic til tomorrow morning but everything originated looks good to me. Also, later today, or tomorrow morning I will present information on the EC and how it handles snow accumulation. Not so cut and dried. Later, Walt

Added CoCORAHS final for today's obs, generally prior to 8AM... but a few may have incorporated data after 8A. Planning a two day graphic summary wrap tomorrow.

The band coming NNJ and NW CT at 1035AM is pretty good snowfall for a few minutes. PHI: Wantage NJ - this part: another 0.1" in our 10AM 1/4SM SW+. Gust was only 28MPH at 1004AM The first tenth had melted by 930A. pavements just wet with the 10AM squall.

Good thing we can enjoy some of the snow this morning: 06z/20 GEFS is a disaster... relatively dry through much of Jan. Have my doubts but it's just another set of options and imo, needs to be treated with consideration but not gospel. Once I see the GEPS dump this threaded event, then I'm convinced. Think it's all based on the backing wind at 500MB (short wave strength) coming through NyS-PA-LI 15-26th. If predominantly 270 or 280... not good. All I can do is monitor and accept the future trends.

CP OBS since 707A. KNYC 201251Z AUTO VRB03KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN009 OVC080 01/M01 A2990 RMK AO2 SNB01 SLP116 P0002 T00061011 $ KNYC 201249Z AUTO 00000KT 2SM -SN BR BKN009 OVC080 01/M01 A2990 RMK AO2 SNB01 P0002 $ KNYC 201247Z AUTO 23004KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR SCT007 BKN011 OVC080 01/M02 A2990 RMK AO2 SNB01 P0002 $ KNYC 201234Z AUTO 00000KT 3/4SM -SN BR FEW007 OVC013 01/M02 A2990 RMK AO2 SNB01 P0001 T00061017 $ KNYC 201227Z AUTO 00000KT 3/4SM -SN VV014 01/M02 A2990 RMK AO2 SNB01 P0001 T00061022 $ KNYC 201215Z AUTO VRB03KT 1SM -SN OVC021 01/M03 A2991 RMK AO2 SNB01 P0000 T00111033 $ KNYC 201207Z AUTO 26007KT 2 1/2SM -SN OVC029 02/M04 A2991 RMK AO2 SNB01 P0000 T00171039 $

CoCoRAHS early reports of accums as of about 745A. Will update at 10A.

Wantage NJ 4 św 445A-645A 0.1" roads salted to Branchville. was a slippery exit out of the driveway at 620A. 29t this writing. Exit 8 Mt Cobb PA just east of Scranton at least 1/2" early this morning. Band of snow showers ne PA/se NYS approaching Scranton at 755A should cross at least the N and W suburbs of NYC between 845A-1045A. That probably is into NYC around 10A and their last good chance for measurable at CP today.

fwiw and definitely not a focus for me in this conversation. I think we need to get through this morning, and 25th-26th... but fwiw... a clipper event or another w-e east event is modeled by some of the ENS sometime between the 28th-30th. Not big but just another chance. How much is realized these next 10 days??

No change for me on this mornings event.. now in progress. S-/S-- in Wantage..tinge of white on the ground since sometime just before 5A. mPING has flurries to just outside NYC at 545A. IF NYC is to measure, my guess is primary time as listed above in previous post... could melt on the CP snowboard, esp if no check between 7A-1P. NAM3K centers NYC max chance on the front end around 8A. That's the general snow band. Snow showers possible til 2PM NYC but chances are NYC won't measure on the snow showers, while the suburbs do. Enjoy whatever you get. Trace here in this part of Wantage NJ 545A.

Good morning- It's Wednesday Jan 20 - 25th-26th: 00z/20 ENS a bit further south, but main change in my view...I90 north is definitely drying. I see the 06z/20 GFS op gave up on everything 25th on MD northward... yikes-i don't think that is going to be correct? Meanwhile: NAEFS continues pretty fast on the 25th onset and 0.4 up to I84 with variability. Let's say this is a bit too high... I still think we're looking at .1 to .2 to I84 and .2 to .4 along and s of I80 in our forum with ice involved along I95 and potentially a period of rain parts of LI, NJ coast. All dependent on whether the flow turns wsw at 500 per the GEFS over LI or never backs to more than 280 (EC op). Since we're still at D5-6..I'm leaning NAEFS with contributions from the EPS/GEFS and 2" up to I84 and potentially a swath of 3-4" near ice change zone in NJ. I'm staying with the original topic til I'm sure it's south. NAEFS (GEPS) will have to back off. Right now, I've no certainty of that. Will check back late afternoon. Have a day.

I thought EC @ EPS included sleet as snow?? Thanks for the note. Walt

Hi... Why does my EPS mean snowfall data differ? Is it the res? Os my our error? EPS I'm looking at is several inches less. I just need to know where to access the correct model guidance. Thanks, Walt

Tomorrow morning should be a bit of fun around here... am hoping NYC can measure by 7A. If it's after 7A, then the 1P may not catch the possible 0.1" dusting of snow. Unsure how this turns out but should be bit active with dustings of snow up to 3/4" in our forum (even in some of the boroughs and LI) between 3AM and Noon with a couple straggler snow showers in the afternoon. This after two successive days of afternoon flurries in the forum per mPing.

ALL: no question a bit southward trend past 12 hours... kind of early throwing in the towel. NAEFS and WPC still has qpf and so am staying with the topic as posted and not saying anything different til I know for sure this is south with primary advisory threat south of I80. fwiw... and I won't post 16z ish/19 graphics here, because basically they repeat the posted topic graphics from earlier today... WPC is unwavering on 1/4" qpf just n of I80 and 1/4" frozen probs...actually has 30+% immediate w NYC suburbs now. Today is 1/19 the event is still 6-7 days away. I am riding this out...there will still be differences. Main difference I see that needs resolution...how much westerly flow at 500 MB across LI, vs the WNW flow of the EPS. Hang in there.

Agreed... nice lapse rate post to demo the potential. I do not think we can say no problem. IF this occurs as anticipated. roads will not be treated during the heavier of whatever Inauguration morning commute, but I'm pretty sure slippery spots will develop, un beknownst to some of our faster drivers from PA to NYC. Definitely a potential SPS event.

Dustings occurred into Sussex County NJ of nw NJ last night with a nice cover in ne PA. Wantage, T but nothing visible. But Newton-Andover Township a slightest cover on grass/roofs. Past 24 hours attached. Accept what we can get.

Fifth topic edit Monday 635AM Jan 25, since the topic started Tuesday Jan 19: 35 AM Monday Jan 25: Added two graphics for the coming extensive minor snow-ice-snow event with main impacts LI-NYC-I95 corridor northwestward to the Adirondacks and New England Could be sneaky icy along the coast. mPING will be helpful. NWS snowfall forecast map added from 5AM this morning (NYC-LI generally less than 1") and also the probabilistic chance of .01 freezing rain. Mostly a Tuesday-Tuesday night snow-sleet event changing to freezing/rain-rain during the afternoon I80 southward possibly going back to snow or flurries Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Advisories already out near DC. Expect it will be briefly slippery everywhere in our forum for a time Tuesday, and probably Tuesday night-Wednesday morning LI-NYC-I80 northward, especially interior. Expect plowing small amount amounts of snow entire I84 corridor with road treatments necessary most of the remaining portion of our forum except possibly just southeast of the I95 corridor. Weak boundary layer winds with a north-northeast drift will probably assist on keeping temps on the colder side of the available guidance. Storm impact of all snow will be larger I84 northward and inclusive of I90 to Boston with decent amounts. This keeps this brief and we'll all be monitoring the models. Hopefully there are no slips/falls/accidents Tuesday-Tuesday night on all untreated surfaces. Fourth topic edit Sunday morning 550AM: This is mostly a Tuesday-Tuesday night event. Periods of mostly light snow, at times changing to sleet, freezing rain (rain where above 32F along the coasts) or freezing drizzle up to I80, NYC, LI. Snow amounts trimmed a bit and I sure hope NYC can muster 1/2-3" depending on precip type and intensity for this event. I pushed the start time back to 7P Monday but it could be delayed NYC-LI-CT til as late as 9AM Tuesday. Also took MODERATE event out of the headline. Banding signature suggests snow should break out across PA/NJ between 7P and midnight Monday. The primary event is the 26th, ending sometime Wednesday morning. While amounts are light, suspect there will could be a period or two of 3/4mi light snow - bordering 1/2S for an hour or two, from northern NJ into ne PA/se NYS and western CT. 06z/24 NAM banding signature and also seen in the 06z/24 GFSv16 qpf, that the heaviest snow may occur early Wednesday near NYC. This may be associated with a trowel/inverted trough departing shortwave and weak seaward moving low pressure. Something to monitor but not get hopes overly high. So, manageable delays sometime during this event due to plowable snow northwest of I95, except snow-ice I80 southward in NJ to Baltimore and snow/ice/rain NYC-LI southward along the NJ coast southeast of I95. Amount expectations lowered to range from an uncertain 1-4" CT with the least in eastern Connecticut and a less than certain forecast there, to between 3-5" se NYS, ne PA and 2-4" nw NJ north of I80. Temps will generally be subfreezing throughout the event except NYC/LI/NJ coast which are in the margins of ice-snow at the start, changing to periods of rain then ending as snow, so amounts of each element will depend on duration but it will probable get slippery there on untreated surfaces for a time as well-especially if and when precipitation occurs during the nighttime hours. Check others herein and other resources for other opinions. --- Third topic edits 626A/23: Delayed the start in the forum 3 more hours and that may not be enough due to the dry air in place, but sometimes the snow-sleet breaks out faster than modeled. I've had to admit a slower departure, especially because of the GFSv16 and EC. The following may be too high on amounts but it's just my opinion of the boiled down (in my mind) consensus of the 00z-06z/23 model suite. A colder week is now here with hazardous winter weather potential late Monday-late Thursday Late Monday the 25th-early Wed the 27th: Manageable. Still uncertainty on evolution. There is general model consenses for slower arrival and later departure, and less precip amounts. I am guarded about decreasing the wintry element amounts (low level pressure pattern, 500MB vort max track, GFSv16) but this update below may be an inch or 2 on the high side? Manageable delays sometime in this event due to plowable snow northwest of I95, except snow-ice I78 southward in NJ to Baltimore and snow/ice/rain NYC-LI southward along the NJ coast southeast of I95). The main event for I84 should Tuesday-Tuesday night. Expecting amounts to range from an uncertain 1-5" CT with the least in eastern Connecticut and a less than certain forecast there, to between 4- isolated 7" se NYS, ne PA and nw NJ. LI/NYC/NJ coast 1" to possibly as much as 4" by the time all is said and done with the best chance for a POSSIBLE 4" NYC (possible, not probable). I expect plowing will be needed sometime for most of our area northwest of I95, except maybe east of the CT River. Temps will generally be subfreezing throughout the event except NYC/LI/NJ coast which are in the margins of ice-snow at the start, changing to periods of rain then ending as snow, so amounts of each element will depend on duration but it will probable get slippery there on untreated surfaces for a time as well-especially if and when precipitation occurs during the nighttime hours. Check others herein and other resources for other opinions. Second topic edits 645A/22: Made it definite put in a time structure of Noon Mon-6P Tuesday and withdrew possibly from the description. Good morning this Friday Jan 22: Think consensus is developing that most here will enjoy a significant plowable snow event late Monday-Tuesday. My take below based on 00z/22 ops and EPS/GEFS/NAEFS, and 06z GFS op. Good Friday morning everyone, Jan 21. Focus shifts from the Adirondacks today to the region from I84 to NC next week, then back north to the I84 corridor northward the first week of February. This may be as good as it gets for our membership this winter who like snow. One event at a time follows. Travelers into the northeast USA Noon Monday- 6PM Tuesday the 25th-26th: While still some uncertainty, if you have travel plans into the I84-I80 corridors or I95 Baltimore to NYC-New Haven Monday Night-Tuesday morning, prepare for delays due to snow, except snow-ice I78 southward in NJ to Baltimore. Expecting amounts to range from ~1" or less I90 in Mass (could be zero if the storm stays south), to an uncertain 1-5" CT with the least in northeast Connecticut (Ashford) and a less than certain forecast there, to between 4-7" se NYS, and 5-9" ne PA, nw NJ. The high side 9" amount is no guarantee but it's in some of the modeling. Best chance of 9" in ne PA is along I80. LI/NYC my expectation this early is 1 to maybe as much as 6"??? with the best chance of 3"+ western LI/NYC. I expect plowing will be needed most of our area except maybe n CT/MA/and the region along or just southeast of I95 BWI-NYC. Temps will be subfreezing throughout the event except if it starts Monday afternoon when it will take an hour or two to drop below freezing. Baltimore-Philly is in the ice-snow zone so amounts of each element will depend on duration but it will get slippery there for a time, possibly as early as Noon Monday. Finally: the end of this event should be Tuesday afternoon, but it's possible that it could linger into the wee predawn hours of Wednesday? Attached a NWS graphic ensemble 30+% chance of 3+" of snow Monday into early Tuesday. Blue is 50+%. This gives an idea of the focus only through 7AM Tuesday and it will snow beyond 7AM Tuesday- so this is conservative. Also the NAEFS qpf for the 24 hr period ending 00z/27 with .4" = to the 10MM line, and also the sfc temp for near 00z./27 which shows 0C along I95. -- First Topic edits 630A/21: Added widespread to the topic title. Uncertainty continues, especially northern extent of 2+" with I84 somewhat in doubt because of the last 24 hours of GFS depressed cycles. However, the GGEM/GEPS, and especially the EC/EPS have come back north since the 00z/20 cycles. NAEFS is still south, and one can debate if the event lasts into Tuesday night but overall, the topic stands with considerable debate on what happens. I've added the latest WPC probability of 1/4" melted w.e. frozen which you can see has trended higher and more expansive and i think that is correct. It does not match some of the WPC prior to 08z/21 qpf which looks slightly lighter but going with the WPC prob, be cause of the GEPS and EPS. My take at 6A/21 Travelers into the northeast USA Monday-Tuesday the 25th-26th: Still considerable uncertainty on how this all transpires but we should be aware that an extensive hazardous wintry episode is expected for all untreated surfaces, especially the I84-I80-I95 corridors from Baltimore to I80, with less certainty I84. The front end Monday start time is uncertain. It could start for a couple of hours Monday morning then stop for 12 hours. The bulk of this event probably occurs Monday night into Tuesday the 26th. Odds favor a change to rain or ice along the I95 corridor Tuesday morning the 26th, but mostly snow northwest of I95, especially the I80 corridor northward. There is considerable uncertainty on where the primary snow or ice event will occur in the northeast so its good to be aware of the possibilities but no action recommended yet, unless you're headed to Baltimore-Philly where messy slippery wintry elements develop by Noon Monday. Below is the initial topic start from 940A/19. Since there has been a lot of 25th-26th discussion prior to this topic start, let's continue it here. Potential exists for an advisory event in the NYC forum, but with uncertainty on how much coverage and where. -NAO blocking and the strength track of the short wave breaking through the Appalachian ridge will ultimately determine the northern extent of wintry qpf, and amounts. Solutions vary greatly but 00z-06z/19 ensemble consensus permits on the order of 0.1 to 0.5" qpf in the forum. 00z/19 NAEFS thicknesses and sfc-bl temps suggest snow or ice probable for at least a portion of this event with the eventual change to sleet or rain probably LI westward to just s of I80. Timing: Appears the first wintry elements should begin the 25th (possibly as early as 10AM) and should pretty much end by 3PM Tuesday the 26th. Outliers: Have not placed much confidence on one or two operational warning event qpf's through the 06z/19 cycle, since ensembles appear to be predominantly less than warning. Maybe that will change but it's what I think is realistic at this point. This topic will be amended as we draw closer to the 25th with more consensus. A following short wave late 27th-28th appears to be steered south of the forum by the shortwave of the 26th redeveloping blocking northwest flow aloft over our NYC forum by the 27th. The attached graphics are from WPC derived prior to the arrival of the 00z/19 cycle ensembles, but an idea of their upcoming ensemble solutions. Darker green shows their 30+% chance of more 1/4" melted water equivalent (w.e) snow-sleet. As you can see, it's inland-higher terrain favored but that doesn't rule out a widespread 2+" snowfall elsewhere. This is a D7 forecast. There will be changes as the models change.