wdrag

Featuring Severe storms this thread though with wet ground cannot rule out isolated FF where excesses have occurred recently, especially ne NJ...but PW max around 1.4" and a bit faster moving, especially Wednesday, limit the FF potential. Follow modeled (FV3, NAM3K, HRRR, SPC HREF), NWS-SPC outlooks/warnings/stmts and your own takes, obs. TT up into the lower 50s tonight and Wednesday early afternoon. Wind fields a little on the lighter side today so believe svr risk from a dying line of esewd moving sct heavy convection is NYS/CT, maybe with a remnant thunderstorm down to I80-NYC around or after midnight. Should have a refire Wednesday afternoon but where does it grow large enough to be SVR? Probably I95 corridor eastward. NJ coast may end up the most favored area on Wednesday. Check for any changes in the SPC day 1 and 2 outlooks which at 6am has marginal upstate NY today, and then our area Wed.

SVR thread for 8P-!A se NYS CT dying out I80 near or after midnight then another risk Wed afternoon, entire forum but probably mostly I95 corridor eastward. Will detail a little more around 730A.

Tuesday night or a bit more likely midday Wed: BAD timing keeps me low profile on this if somehow timing improves, I'd go for a SVR thread. Instab parameters, esp TT are increasing (lower 50's). Down here in our subforum I know it's pushing it for Wed, . but am thinking a bit more about NJ/LI as SVR risk Noon-4P..sort of early in the day & sfc cnv not the greatest look but Marginal risk may need to be added somewhere down in the southern part of the subforum in future projections for Wed. For now continue just monitoring for myself.

CoCoRahs 24 hr, thread and monthly totals for those stations that qualify. Will add the monthlies in 5 minutes. and HPRCC % normal for the month not including yesterday,

Good Sunday morning, As we clear the past week with only residual possible heavy convection north of I84 this afternoon (thread ongoing but probably dead for the most part [11-19])... as noted above, we're heading into a seasonable last two weeks of July..less risk of formidable threats-threads for us. My next consideration: BAD timing keeps me low profile on this but Tue night or Wed, if timing improves, I'd go for a SVR thread (faster moving cold front with better instability and wind parameters for a brief event), but for now no go-just monitoring for myself. Won't start August thread yet, but previously noted by someone, EC EPS seems to favor warmer than normal and wetter than normal in August, and most recent CPC week 3-4 outlook does the same for the beginning of August.

This thread may be about done. MAY keep adding if heavy convection develops north of I84 this afternoon, but otherwise will post some CoCoRAHS, 24 hour rainfall, and 11-17 totals, and finally a monthly, where the daily data exists. Am pretty sure CoCoRaHs will not add incomplete dailies which is a drag, when it comes to looking at what there is (at least from what I've seen in weekly monthly checks). For now, have no new threads planned...looking at SVR potential late Tue or Wed but will comment in July section keeping this thread free of that small chance event). Thanks for keeping up with all of this and LI---sorry about little rain even overnight. Your turn comes...sooner or later.

Could be related to drop size and efficiency... heavy showers embedded within an area of light rain am pretty sure are more efficient in yield. Also drop size in TC's tends to be smaller, yet adds up quicker. Note that high reflectivity in our typical storms indicates ice or LARGE drops but those drops don't necessarily translate into very heavy rain, if they are spaced a bit apart. Hope that helps. You might want to google rainfall efficiency (in tropical systems, and not?).

Glad you asked. So when you go into underground... and the stations come up. My Map (ignore dewpoint-kaput and haven't taken time to fix) https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNJSUSSE11 Then it probably shows temps on the map. You can have the settings change to overlay radar, or change the temp to the daily precip total by clicking upper right of the MAP (settings wheel). Then... you can zoom out and look where you think bigger qpf is via your radar data source. Then .... click View Wundermap (below the map). Now you map is clean (no weather data) and to the right is the featured data. Under featured data, click weather stations,. then scroll down to precipitation and voila...there it is. Refreshes every 5 or 10 seconds and you can move the map centroid around and zoom to show more data or less... just have to be a little patient on the refresh of the data. Let me know if that works.

0800 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE STANTON 40.55N 74.82W 07/17/2021 E4.55 INCH HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

I haven't checked in since 2P... Here's a few 5's in North central NJ today. Almost 4 at one official NJ climo site.

Think I saw that on mPing as well. 46 KT at EWR out off the north at 221P, 1/4 hail. .92 in about 35 minutes there.

You've seen early NWS products/modeling prior to 12z/17. Please follow all NWS statements/warnings this afternoon tonight. PRIMARY max rainfall bands in our subforum of W CT, se NYS, extreme ne PA, n 1/2NJ, LI; ne-sw orientation (I think) roughly ne PA/NNJ through e NYS, NW 1/3 CT. That too where wet microbursts SVR but marginal TT48 instability and max wind below 500MB of about 30 kt. CAPE plenty supportive of SVR as well HI near 100 in warm sectors which could include KEWR. Yes TOR possible but not so much dynamically driven (that would mean potentially less strong), more so as spin along a boundary. Local mesoscale analysis will help with pooling dew points above 70, CAPE, sfc wind convergence as ingredients/drivers of heavy convection (outflows considered too). Moisture, lift and instability! LI, probably not much till after midnight and then not so much. Sunday: lets see what remains... convection possible but much less PW, but still further amounts. Details TBD including whether KEWR nudges 90F? Am probably offline 230-1030P. Family gathering.

Power outages Sussex County NJ

Here's what happened here late today. I watched this cell-line develop from 4-515P. I think plenty more of this tomorrow..stronger winds aloft. It should come down to primary persistent convergent bullseye 5P-midnight Sat. Will reevaluate in the morning.

Expect NOT widespread 4-5", instead widespread 0.2-1.2" with a band or two of 4-5" probably somewhere near the 90F heat which will be in NJ (Probably D4 modest heatwave in most of NJ except coastal waters). This eve's 1-3" nw NJ in the digital storm total radar band previously shown. My Wantage (this southern part) total 1.12. Will try and reevaluate potential early tomorrow morning. 12z/16 SPC HREF under played the max by about 1" ending 8PM this evening. SPC HREF seems to favor, imo, ne NJ received ing the most by daybreak Sunday, starting this evening. As others have said, we shall see.

Wantage NJ (this part) 1.02 since 514P. in basically 1 hr. CoCoRahs monthly totals attached-these do not include today.

think it's a good idea to be ready for some short duration FF this eve in nw NJ and parts of our area Sat afternoon-eve. It should end by sunrise Sunday and this airmass should dry out per modeling. But by then the damage will be done. Already today near 3" near Wantage NJ... who gets it tomorrow... please read on

Since about 4PM Friday - this afternoon in far nw NJ se NYS .. sample 1-2" I've had 0.34 in 9 min. You can figure out the RF rate. MAX gust under 30. I think there is some small hail mixed in some of the tstms..per mPing and NWS algorithms.

No changes for me: Sunday-early Monday are in doubt due to model differences, the Canadian a little exuberant for our area while the GFS/EC say the potential big show is basically done by dawn Sunday. Therefore, focusing these next two days: SPC marginal risk both today-tomorrow in our subforum due to greatest instability. Stronger wind tomorrow so I suspect more widespread outbreak Saturday. However, can't rule out a damaging tstm I84 corridor to near- just north of NYC late today. Pattern suggests to me isolated 4 to 5" by daybreak Sunday. Where best chance? Cant comment further right now...may be back late today. Have a good day.

Appears to me a possible tstm RI very late this afternoon-eve; better chance sometime later Sat night, and to me, best chance for heavy storms is Sunday up there in RI. Let me know how it goes. Thanks. Walt

No changes in outlook. Sun-Mon remain up in the air. CF and weak low pressure posit combined with PWAT bullseye will determine deluge areas of concern. NAVGEM suddenly on board with EC for Sun-Mon. I think its good to remember all the modeling has been off on for Sunday so all i'm pretty sure of is an active Sat afternoon-night I80 north. BTW 3rd 90F day of the week at KEWR and other locations NNJ, 2 in a row there and many other spots NJ except NW NJ high terrain and some of the coasts. HI Near 100F HI tomorrow and then Sat has all to do with posit of the CF...going to be close for a 90F day in NNJ. s NJ looks like HI near 100... boundary somewhere between I84-I80? SPC moved the Marg risk tomorrow closer into the nw part of the subforum. I think a good move. Have a good night. Walt

Cannot quote me: Decision time for you is when? tonights 00z HPC HREF is a start into what and where Sat. I think we're looking good here for big QPF. my guess is RI is targeted Sunday but i could completely wrong. Still uncertainty... Let me know decision time. Thanks,

545A Thursday: Extended the original 9th post headline to Monday July 19. Modest heatwave at least for portions of NJ through Sat continues. Peak of the Heat Index values 95-100F either Fri or Sat? The main reason to extend the duration is for QPF purposes. Appears to me that a short wave (weak closed LOW aloft) will separate and drift east across the mid Atlantic states Sunday-Monday, hanging up the front a bit with HIGH PW (nr 2") airmass near and south of the front Sunday and possibly into Monday in our NYC subforum. IF that occurs, heavy qpf would occur along and south of the boundary, certainly into Sunday and possibly Monday. Where all this qpf will occur?? Guessing Sat I80 northward, Sunday I80 southward, but that is just an idea. Yes, there is still a chance the front will drift south of us faster, limiting the risk to Sat only, but there just seems to be too much information indicating caution on the previously faster progression. In the meantime: Today- could be a late shower or Tstm in high PW air coastal NJ? FrI: No SPC marginal risk for SVR, and wind fields are not favoring but with the approaching CF, I think the I90 to I84 corridor is at risk for isolated embedded SVR late Fri-Fri eve. Sat: Think it likely for FF and wetmicrobust wind damage thunderstorms, especially I80 north later in the day eve. No SPC outlook but there is from WPC, please see attached. It's a broad outlook but well stated. Sun-Mon: TBD per pgh's above. alid 12Z Sat Jul 17 2021 - 12Z Sun Jul 18 2021 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...Tennessee River Valley to southern New England... A very slow moving cold front with multiple waves of low pressure along it is forecast to be in place from the Ohio Valley to New England on Saturday morning, and a strong upper ridge/Bermuda high will limit the eastward progression of this front through early Sunday. Much of the interior Northeast will be under the right entrance region of the upper level jet, along with an incoming 500 mb shortwave trough. At the surface, PWs are expected to surge near or slightly above 2 inches from the eastern Mid-Atlantic to southern England, which is well above the 90th percentile for this region. A corridor of enhanced PWs should along exist farther southwest ahead of the front from Tennessee to the central Appalachians, along with plenty of instability with surface based CAPE near 2000 J/kg. These factors will be enough to produce widespread moderate to intense convection with high rainfall rates, with the model consensus suggesting the potential for widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals from central Pennsylvania to the Massachusetts close where the Slight Risk area resides. It is also important to note that portions of this region have significantly reduced flash flood guidance owing to 300-500% of normal 7-day rainfall over the past week, and those areas will be more vulnerable to flash flooding from slow moving storms.

Yep, I did not expect this in Monmouth this eve (from morning post)... it seems to be mostly FF, with spotty microburst damage. At least something happened near NYC. Good WXunderground post by DONCAT. Thanks! The remainder of the eve...N CT primary but keep monitoring other cells still warned. Added the first 13 days of July from CoCoRAHS only. AND the lightning that occurred late yesterday into predawn today, Presuming this weekend's heavy showers occur, we may start a month long normal or below normal rainfall trend sometime next week...into mid August, per CPC only. Click on the maps and they show more clearly.

I see a report of wires down in Summit that the NWS posted- 4P.