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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Prelim 7AM CoCoRAHS obs for the storm... and Power outage map as a base line. I have 5" in Wantage NJ as of 625A.
  2. wdrag
    I'm posting early CoCoRAHS...doesnt look like much e LI? How much there and also CP 7AM? 4"?
  3. wdrag
    My advice: Anyone expecting storm totals more than 10" should do your first big cleanup between now and 10AM, then sit back and enjoy. I'll do my second around 4PM (whereby I think I'll have 6-8" in 6 hours, and then an 8PM for another 6 in 4 hours" Then tomorrow morning...cant wake the neighbors. If anyone thinks they can snow blow 12" of 32-33F wet snow, they may be surprised at the difficulty. Certainly my blower cant handle more than 24" max dry snow and probably less than that. Don't tear the rotator cuff and those with heart conditions, be especially careful. Stay free of downed wires this afternoon-evening and if power goes out, watch that those generator fumes don't build up inside your home. Best to all!
  4. wdrag
    Showery event this morning.
  5. wdrag
    Good morning: straight cut and paste on the NOWcast for today only. Left the graphics on the topic thread. Dangerous storm today. Safety first. DPW's and first responders need priority. Recovery begins tomorrow. Difficult for me to understand why no bans on travel today (10A-10P)in NNJ/ne PA. Sleet up to Allentown early today and so when precip lighter this morning, sleet could mix in to LI/NYC but you should be good for several hours of 1/4S+BS and 1"/hour snowfall rates as the temps rise into the 30s...already above freezing parts of e LI. Not ideal lift in the dendrite zone for LI but good enough. No matter, take what you can get there. Tonight I see little way that is snows on LI as max lift has shifted nw of I95 and the deep ice nuclei seeding from CI is gone (dry slot) with the only hope that salt nuclei might be able to keep a little snow going there. Expecting per modeling 15-20 more inches between 6A and 10PM NNJ (especially Sussex/Passiac/Morris counties), ne PA near KMPO and interior se NYS with another half foot 10P tonight-sunrise Wednesday. Drifts to at least 4 feet ridges. Damaging wind and I think big power outages this afternoon-evening from combined wet snow load of 6"snow on trees/wires and gusts probably 55-70 MPH on LI (even NYC though I think the 70MPH is reserved for ISP east.) and 40-55 MPH elsewhere in our forum just n and w of NYC. Coastal flooding: looks like 3-4 successive high tide cycles beginning late this morning-midday with the first minor or moderate, the midnightish tonight high tide moderate to major ; and then followed by two minors tomorrows high tide cycles.
  6. wdrag
    Good morning American Weather! Welcome to February! Dangerous storm today. Safety first. DPW's and first responders need priority. Recovery begins tomorrow. Difficult for me to understand why no bans on travel today (10A-10P)in NNJ/ne PA. Sleet up to Allentown early today and so when precip lighter this morning, sleet could mix in to LI/NYC but you should be good for several hours of 1/4S+BS and 1"/hour snowfall rates as the temps rise into the 30s...already above freezing parts of e LI. Not ideal lift in the dendrite zone for LI but good enough. No matter, take what you can get there. Tonight I see little way that is snows on LI as max lift has shifted nw of I95 and the deep ice nuclei seeding from CI is gone (dry slot) with the only hope that salt nuclei might be able to keep a little snow going there. I won't predict NYC since you started with 2" at midnight and have no idea what's on the ground there now. My guess at 5am might be near 5"? Total 12", maybe 18? I dunno. I've attached the WPC probs for 8+ and 18+ after 12z today. It's guidance and may be subject to error but I think it's correct on the bullseyes of what I think will end up pockets of 30" snow nw NJ/nse PA/se NYS. I expect 15-20 more inches between 6A and 10PM NNJ (especially Sussex/Passiac/Morris counties), ne PA near KMPO and interior se NYS with another half foot 10P tonight-sunrise Wednesday. Drifts to at least 4 feet ridges. Totals: near 30" expected in parts of NNJ/ne PA and se NYS by sunrise Wednesday. Damaging wind and I think big power outages this afternoon-evening from combined wet snow load of 6"snow on trees/wires and gusts probably 55-70 MPH on LI (even NYC though I think the 70MPH is reserved for ISP east.) and 40-55 MPH elsewhere in our forum just n and w of NYC. Coastal flooding: looks like 3-4 successive high tide cycles beginning late this morning-midday with the first minor or moderate, the midnightish tonight high tide moderate to major ; and then followed by two minors tomorrows high tide cycles. Graphics: 1) NWS 09z/1 ensemble prob 8+ after 7A 2) NWS 09z/1 ensemble prob 18+ after 7A 3) NWS 09z/1 collaborated STORM total snowfall which goes into their products. 4) NWS 09z/1 Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) which does not account for coastal flooding contribution.
  7. wdrag
    NYC CP officially 2.0" yesterday. Jan 2.1 Presume that's not near the record low snow for Jan.
  8. wdrag
    My first report since last eve... to Mt Holly and AMWX... Good morning Mt Holly! Splendid here in Wantage NJ 4sw. 3.8 total since SB 135P Sunday 1/31. Drifting is going to make measures a little more difficult...more samples. 17.2/15.8 right now with light but pretty big flake snow estimated 3/4mi vsby.
  9. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 830P, first snow board clearance.. 0.8" Next measurement ~ 4a. 16F
  10. wdrag
    Hi! Been off line most of the day and back in full early tomorrow. Not much for me to argue... I've no changes to my earlier thinking. In the end it will do what it wants and hopefully I learn from this. I add two NWS ensemble probability graphics from late today which i think are telling. Note the gradient near NYC on prob >8" so Yes, an easy foot expected in my eyes, but ensembles say don't go all in... since it's on the gradient...30 miles may make a difference between 8 and 20"? Still the jackpot of 25-30" if it occurs, which i think it will, probably somewhere n of I78 in ne PA, northern NJ and se NYS-Catskills region. No changes on my concerns about wet snow damage near I95, and coastal flooding, wind gusts 45-55 MPH tomorrow afternoon-eve I95 corridor to the coasts. Have a good night.
  11. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point.. 0.3" 16F since the flurries began at 135P and intensified a bit around 4.
  12. wdrag
    Not starting a thread yet for Feb 5-8, but it looks sort of interesting to me with a short spurt of very cold air arriving from the west atop a deep snow cover. Maybe we finally get below 14F NYC? Could be one or two short and light wintry events in our area, especially w-n of NYC. In the meantime, there was some talk about the NAM going away. NOT til at least 2023 when the NAM, HRRR, SREF get subsumed or replaced in other FV3 core upgrades. This from NCEP and a recent presentation.
  13. wdrag
    SB Wantage (this part) around 135P. just flurries right now. 18.3/5.2 t/td.
  14. wdrag
    se flow 850 mb lift - waa... helps. It's spurt. Looks nice.
  15. wdrag
    Don't tear your rotator cuff... hope you have a plowing service or snow blower (multi times to keep up with 3 hour half foot accumulation in some areas).
  16. wdrag
    This is a dangerous life threatening storm. See the purples in the WSSI posted earlier...also that does not take into account coastal flooding, especially the Monday evening high tide cycles when access may not be possible for 4-6 hours (2-3 either side of hi tide).
  17. wdrag
    Got to accumulations and change to snow, zr etc and watch your end time, Lots of flex in the menu. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb
  18. wdrag
    Yes...i can see 1 foot JFK/LGA CP...easily but somewhere I need to throw caution to the wind of 50-55 MPH there. how do we measure?
  19. wdrag
    I just have to go with probabilistic. IF the GFSV16 wins, I learn... but too many models now mixing to NYC. Rgem even has sleet into Middlesex county tomorrow morning for a time. My guess this storm is going to knock out power to at least 100, 000 customers. Some of our posters may suffer with this, either no comms, or home damage. This to me is a storm that administrators need to pause life for 12-18 hours tomorrow and then allow for late night cleanup and declare snow emergencies. Just my take. If the 12z models back off, then they can save the embarrassment but as I see it, this is a worthy consideration. FIRST responders are going to need access to places to save lives. Did I say dangerous? While wind probably stays under 70 MPH on LI, it's still quite a storm. IF temp at CP can stay under 33F Monday night, then we're good for much more than a foot NYC. I cannot confidently say to media and whomever, that that is the prevailing. You can give them that 18-20" option but broadcast probable. A foot will make many happy, i think. I
  20. wdrag
    Please go with what you think. 06z/31 EC still has it going to rain between 00z-03z/2 but by that time the damage done on LI/NYC. Will be close for NYC but the dry slot is not good for continuous snow at marginal ice nuclei temps aloft (need -7-8C in the > 70% RH column to allow for snow). This is for LI, so without cirrus seeding it looks difficult for me to see all snow NYC. This may change, but, as a forecaster, I need to take into account probabilistic forecasts... There's only an updated 60-70% chance of 8+ in NYC. I can see a foot in NYC by 7P Monday, maybe a touch more. Then whatever happens NYC after 7P, I've no answer tho I think mostly mixed or rain till it goes back to snow late Tuesday. Go with what you think is best. Hope that helps understand my considerations. Latest 06z/31 GGEM snowfall. Impressive! 06z/31 EC 10 to 1 snow ratio snowfall for NYC attached as well. Just enjoy whatever.
  21. wdrag
    Snow begins in spurts this afternoon-evening NJ and ne PA and reaches NY and se NYS LI 9PM -3AM and CT 4A-8A Monday. Heaviest continuous snowfall Monday LI/NJ/nePA, but the heaviest delays til Monday afternoon-night in CT. Power outages should become numerous Monday afternoon-evening ne NJ/se NYS/southern CT and all of LI. Coastal flooding for 3 successive high tide cycles beginning late morning-midday Monday with the worst moderate to major flooding possible with the late Monday night high tide cycle. Starter graphic is the snow depth as of Sunday morning 7AM.
  22. wdrag
    Good Sunday morning everyone, Jan 31. Major near blizzard Nor'easter coming. I would not plan on driving anywhere on Monday in northern NJ, ne PA, se NYS and ditto CT Monday afternoon-night, MA Monday night. NYC my guess is a foot, possibly more before mixed Monday night. Otherwise, amounts between 1-2 feet from I78 northward with lesser 8-18 inches CT and MA where rain/sleet invades later Monday night. Isolated 30" possible nw NJ, or ne PA into the Catskills by the time this storm ends early Wednesday.. Drifts 3-4 feet. Power outages possible Monday afternoon and night from northern NJ northeastward to CT and Boston from a combination of heavy wetter (heart attack for the hear tcondition vulnerable) snow and northeast wind gusts of 40-55 MPH. Snow starts central NJ around 3 PM, northern NJ-ne PA 6-10P, CT around dawn Monday. Worst of the storm NJ/PA sunrise Monday-midnight Monday night, CT Monday afternoon-night. Coastal flooding may be major near the midnight Monday high tide cycle? Follow NWS. 1) SPC HREF snowfall ensemble 24 hours ending 7P Monday, may be conservative. 2) Winter Storm Severity Index issued 4am 3) NWS forecast snowfall not updated yet beyond 3AM. I will replace the snow graphic by 7AM with their 5AM updated version. 6A/31. NWS Ensemble prob for 8+ and 18+ issued at 430AM
  23. wdrag
    Haven't delved into the ratios. You're probably right. I saw there nam banding signal and I like the persistence for se NYS/ne PA/nw NJ Subtle but good.
  24. wdrag
    Stats: I think they run much better algorithms including snow ratios and thermal processes. Thats why the prob >8" NYC is only about 70% . Not surprised. This is not the best set up. The best setup is a more circular upper low and parked s of LI...not drifting north across New England. A very good snowfall and nothing to complain about unless you want 20" for LI. Could happen but i don't think so... which means I'm going against the soon to be implemented heavier GFSv16, for which i've no experience. Someone will probably remind me of this statement if on Wednesday LI had 20", after which I'll be a champion of the V16. I could be wrong but when the max qpf axis is 1.5" or greater, it usually isn't all snow unless you can guarantee the cold THROUGHOUT. Not easy. We'll have a better snowstorm situation for LI within the next few years, I would think.
  25. wdrag
    Check this: Probably some on here look at all the parts that make up this forecast but the SREF has allays been forecasting max near and n of I80. We shall see. This is just another way to look at potential and it's far from perfect and seems to slowly 12 hour acscums. But from what I've seen, 3 successive cycles its not too keen on >6" I95 sewd. I like the idea of 6 inch NYC CP, possibly a foot but am conservative because of dry slot and the shape of the 500 low... and NWS probs for 8" -- very good but not a lock statistically. Still, enjoy every bit of snow we get.
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