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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Yes...calender day. Wantage NJ, this part now going up over an inch/hr with real rate 2.5"/hr and no thunder. 2.96 for the day so far.
  2. wdrag
    Folks: Here's some daily rainfall as of 515PM for today only.... nothing from yesterday. Many 3-4.5". I am thinking the 3-7" iso 10" nw NJ ne PA/se NYS may be too conservative. I think we have a dire situation for those with basement flood problems, & that there will be road and bridge washouts, somewhere between I-80 and I84. Doesn't mean it will happen but I do not like what is going on, to escape problems. Follow NWS warnings including river stage forecasts. The Ensembles were woefully underdone and that's why I think some of the large stream forecasts appear too me to be too conservative.
  3. wdrag
    Might this be an interesting first half of September for late season heat and mid season Tropical cyclones into the NYC area??? Have even less clue about the latter half of September. Modeling does imply a warm first week of September, with a weakness in the Gulf States. That weakness is possibly related to tropical cyclones trying to run northward into or toward the the Gulf Coast states, and then find the weakness in the broad coast-coast southern USA 500MB ridge, tending to head northeast along or the interior of the East Coast. How far north might they travel, if this implied pattern is generally correct? Applied the NOAA.GOV CPC week 1-4 forecasts issued the 20th-22nd, and the September update from 8/15, as well as the 12z/22 GEFS 500 mb members, and 12z/22 NAEFS mean sfc temperature departure from normal for the period Aug 30-Sept 6. This does not mean NYC is heading for possibly another 10" month, but does suggest we're in a pattern that favors normal or above normal both for precip/temp this September in our NYC subforum. Long ranging beyond a week or two is not easy, and so this topic starter is just that... a tease of implied potential that can become wrong. MJO forecasts were not attempted to be applied.
  4. wdrag
    12z/22 HPC HREF I80 north and to the Ct River. Been in the model for 3 consecutive runs. LONG ways to go on this rain event.,
  5. wdrag
    Last comments til possibly tomorrow morning, Henri passage e of MTK made it easier to either the storm. Winds may be a little less than advertised near the center but it isn't done quite yet (backside southwester this afternoon?) . Power outage map reflects recent upticks RI/CT, but good that our subforum doesn't have to deal. There will always be critics. They don't get paid to protect. It seems that the GFS/HWRF etc were best on tracking Henri, but horrendous on qpf. Rainfall next 18-30 hours hopefully works out less. Seems to be a slight northward shift in modeled max axis...but still focuses in se NYS NJ/PA border.
  6. wdrag
    IMO, Henri passed WEST of BID, by not too far, maybe a couple miles? Max wind at BID was about 48KTS (~55 MPH), but I saw 68 MPH (59kts) on the BID wx underground sensor.
  7. wdrag
    Stretching FGEN rain now evident wow from LI through I78-I80 region into ne PA. When this system stalls for 6-12 hours, efficient 1.8" PW should yield quite a bit. Not checking amounts too much til 5P. I'm not studying this enough to pinpoint but the radar tells the story as moisture - rain rolls west from CT/LI into the qstry stretch zone of NNJ.
  8. wdrag
    BID... pressure bottoming out and wind turning more easterly. Also s part of BID winds have decreased below 20 kt.
  9. wdrag
    fwiw..just click the map of interest for greater clarity of detail..that said for us older eyes.
  10. wdrag
    Here's some CoCoRahs data for the past 24 hours. Also 68 MPH at about 945A at BID WXUNDERGROUND.
  11. wdrag
    at least 63 MPH recently. coming up.
  12. wdrag
    Operational since about 850AM. Wind gusts close to the wx underground.
  13. wdrag
    Max gusts BID now 55-61MPH
  14. wdrag
    WXunderground. 52-56 MPH on BID. will add graphic soon. Also 44017 s of MTK gusts 43 kt and increasing. Mesonet gusts e LI are getting into the mid 30s now.
  15. wdrag
    So we will by 2PM know how we stand on wind and power outages, initially. Then dealing with pockets of 30-40 kt gusts during the night, high terrain NNJ/se NYS with weakened root systems could add to the total power outages. My concern, as many, is the additional 2 to possibly 12" of rain in our subforum by late Monday night. My focus continues NNJ/ne PA/Catskill region where I think we pound tonight and Monday morning with widespread 3-7" isolated 10". If this occurs as I anticipate, has to result to in moderate or greater stream flooding, some small fast responding streams with bridge washouts/road closures ne PA, NNJ, se NYS. I've added previous week rain departure which to me focuses, most favorable flood area ne PA, nNJ. Also some FGEN guidance that I like which is verifying nicely. See 11z radar today and the expected shift north with interim guidance not shown. SPC HREF max amounts axis shown as well as the HRRRX max rainfall axis (single member).
  16. wdrag
    PRE:? I don't think there is much support for a pre. Instead the driver is the PW axis, convergence in the flow. To me this storm looks to be a major problem--especially since so much se flow aloft already. The combined power outages, and 2 to as much as 10" of rain by Tue in much of the forum (least should be extreme e LI?). Thinking areas with road closures due to flooding, trees down. Power outages very-very inconvenient, esp Tue-Fri where-ever they continue when the HI rises into the 90s. That's when I might bend the rules and issue heat advisories for lower than normal criteria, presuming 1/4 of the area is still without power mid and late week (the power outage coverage is somewhat uncertain). I wouldn't rule out power outages in se NYS and nw NJ, though the focus is CT/LI. Finally, if the 00z/21 HPCHREF continues the 10-12" 48 hour max near i78 extreme w NJ, ne PA, then that will become the focus area for max rainfall as it probably pounds in pockets of NNJ, ne PA Sunday night due to FGEN on w-sw side of the low level center.
  17. wdrag
    Thanks, glad you wrote wherever you are in se NYS. I now think I understand why NHC-WPC did what they did for the 5A advisory. SPC HREF (8 member ensemble-i didn't check the individual members) from the 00z/21 cycle. Have added MAX rainfall potential through 00z/23 ((Monday) and also the HRRRX guidance of 80M winds and max gust POTENTIAL near the proposed 16z landfall and also late Sunday wraparound. If the 12z models trend slightly east, my guess is NHC will follow suit via their consensus and statistical model applications. What I'm seeing is a good chance of 40-55kt gusts even into far nw NJ, and look at the wrap around for southern LI late Sunday afternoon. Now the questions to me are, not so much intensity but track. IF it shifts east, all this would be a little east. Probably my last post til about 230P. In the post below you see the spotty 10" in se PA. I accidentally reversed the 80M wind forecast (late day atop the ~16z landfall). Just use the legends and time.
  18. wdrag
    Quick look after getting up at 6A: My guess is future tracking of Henri will need to be slightly east of the 5A advisory... as said above somewhere east of ISP to near BID. HRRR has shifted east and the 06z GEFS is definitely east of it's 00z version. i have no changes in thoughts updated yesterday. Just don't know how far west the envelope of R+. 641A/21.
  19. wdrag
    Added the 18z/20 HRRR wind gusts for 10A Sunday and also the total QPF. HRRR, EC and GGEM will need to trend east to avoid 'pockets' of damaging wind and serious flooding.
  20. wdrag
    HRRR is my baseline for 12z Sunday... we'll seeif it ends up much further east over BID?, or somewhere between. These are the 48 hr gusts of the 12z op HRRR for 12z Sunday. LOTS of room for error. Follow NHC-NWS.
  21. wdrag
    Been playing catchup on the thread title, so as not to be hyping too soon but I think it's come time to adjust closer to the expected projected rarity for parts of our subforum. Details TBD. ' 333PM Friday about 33 hours after issuance. Changed title to Moderate - MAJOR impacts, tags changed from tropical weather to hurricane gusts, heavy rain changed to flooding rains, RC and CF remain as they were It is becoming more apparent via modeling through the 12z/20 cycle, tho follow NHC, that this storm wants to turn northwest and make landfall anywhere between Block Island to Sandy Hook. Where and intensity? IFFFF Henri still passes east of Montauk, that will be fortunate for LI/CT. Follow NHC, and updated collaborated models and experienced statistical output of Tropical verification. Strongest gusts and largest waves & storm surge should be east of the center on the Atlantic side of the the storm, but beware all the east and northeast facing inlets LI Sound. RC obviously dangerous, and possibly even for experienced surfers. SHOULD BE ZERO casualties due to RC and high Surf. There is enough info out there now that asks us be smart about living safely. Wind: potential from a combination of squall gusts 40 (to possibly ~ 65kt) and preceding heavy rains near and east of the center track, to uproot and snap fully leaved trees, with 'potential' for long duration power outages. Therefore east of the center track, charge your phones, have fuel ready for generators (outdoor exhaust only) and maybe rent a couple of movies since along and east of the center internet connectivity may be lost. TOR (s): maybe? mainly northeast quad of Henri Sunday morning. Rainfall: Looks like 3" near and west of the center of passage, but pockets of surprise amounts elsewhere in the interior? Max by Tuesday in the lingering weakened remnant state??? Maybe isolated 10" somewhere??? Coastal Flooding: dependent on timing with the high of the tide cycles this weekend. This will be a pretty big storm, with varying impacts. Worthy of monitoring updates and being cautious about outdoor activity late Saturday-Sunday.
  22. wdrag
    We are now almost to a point where you have to consider blended model arc winds and add 15% for the gusts. All the west intense modeling with fully leaves trees is big damage. Need to see models ratchet down and further east. Won’t be able to add much cogent comment for a few hours
  23. wdrag
    fwiw... we're only 60 hours out on this storm. Impacts loom large Sunday...you don't want the NAM/further west Hurricane solutions to verify in our subforum... would mean days-possibly weeks of power outages, no matter the flood results. So, root for east and less intense. I'm not a TC specialist but in my opinion trends need to shift weaker/further east to spare LI/CT. (also am not focusing outside our subforum).
  24. wdrag
    Am going to let this play out between NHC/NWS and ourselves. Adjusted the title at 503A today. Not going to hammer wind yet but 'potential' exists for hurricane force gusts Sunday LI/coastal CT and so this storm should be monitored. Model trends last 24 hours west, through the 06z/20 cycle. Have a day!
  25. wdrag
    You all have it covered. I'll toss out my own confidence tomorrow on various aspects. On the rain: I know there's probably aloft of doubt, but somewhere in the FAR nw sector of the entire upper low will probably see 3-5" of rain from FGEN/nose of the 850 moisture transport. Catskills have been targeted previously but could occur anywhere in NJ/NYS, separate from the TC envelope of R+, wherever that might be. Upslope-Low lvl convergence along a possible trough would be of assistance to thi kind of yield. This to me looks sort of like a winter storm moving North to e LI or se New England, stalling then drifting east. I like the inflow for big rain. I may have hit the coastal flooding a bit too hard for our area but need to wait out more details for a day or two. Have a night.
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