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wdrag

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  1. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    Unsure after Friday the 16th, waiting til tomorrow AM to start the topic (in the midst of ELSA). It does look like 90F heat will begin Tuesday- am thinking MOS is lagging but leftover ocean influence could preclude. Many models wait til Wed. There almost certainty will be spotty FF from big thunderstorms in 2"+ PW prior to the heat along the warmfront in NJ/PA. Question how far north? Also any weak TORS in non dynamic generated warm frontal TS related spin Sun-Tue, on the warm front,wherever it is. Then Wed-THU and probably FRI or even Sat: Pretty good chance of 1-3 days SVR in very high CAPE of 2500J/Heat Index near 100. Details TBD but I just checked 12z/8 EPS anoms... very impressive middle of next week and will they relax enough to permit a clean CFP late For Sat?, or does this wait til Sunday the 18th?
  2. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    Hi! I've checked the 12z/8 EPS for all 12z forecast 850T forecasts next week... all 17-18C daily from Tuesday on. It's going to heat up to 90F fast. 100, not in the EPS but I just want to make sure we're looking at actual model 850 T. Anomaly is larger in Canada due to cooler climo there. That is why I'm impressed with the 500anom max showing up at least one bullseye over the mid Atlantic which has a smoother warmer height and temp field than Canada. I haven't checked any op cycles...just noticed the comments and wanted to share my perspective on anomaly vs climo. That is often why I'm not impressed with departures from climo, since the environment can be shouting Winter or HOT summer, but be so called out of season. Later, Walt
  3. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    Leaving this to consider on what I think is coming next week... (not gospel but I think this is a pretty substantial signal)
  4. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    No time to be sure of a headline Sunday the 11th-Sunday the 218h but am pretty sure the will be a notable period for a couple of days SVR/FF and developing heat wave by next Tuesday. Will reevaluate when time but certainly not today for me. Corrected dates after walking my dog... what was I thinking? This Sunday-following Sunday. Let's add that 90-95 to me looks like for the Heat Wave Tue-Sun time frame 13th-18th and won't surprise at near 100F for 1 day, at least KEWR. Also, the heat may persist well beyond next Sunday the 18th. Not sure what guidance folks are looking at for no heat next week, but I see quite a warm anomaly in the GEFS and also EC OP. Maybe I'm too hasty? Will evaluate Friday but as it stands now, I'm in for a topic - just don't have the properly framed wording, including timing. 710A AT 714A added EPS and GEFS 500MB anomaly. Top down long-day heat evolution and I think the MOS is going to trail reality on daily warming.
  5. wdrag
    A quick wrap on the svr yesterday...basically further north than expected on my part... but there was some midnight svr in the interior of se NYS. See reports attach. Please follow all NWS-NHC statements next 24 hours on the previous (yesterday morning risks for today-fro) outlined SVR/FF this afternoon I95 west, and ELSA tonight May not be on line til tonight. Will reevaluate Sunday the 11th-Sunday the 18th Fri or Sat for a FF/SVR/Persistent heat headline but no time today. Thanks for all the input, keeping up with reports. Enjoy the grazer wind (LI) ELSA and torrents I95 east. Will try a COCoRAHS 2 day summary late today and then a 3 day late Fri or Sat morning. Corrected dates after walking my dog... what was I thinking? This Sunday-following Sunday. Let's add that 90-95 to me looks like for the Heat Wave Tue-Sun time frame 13th-18th and won't surprise at near 100F for 1 day, at least KEWR. Also, the heat may persist well beyond next Sunday. 708A
  6. wdrag
    My last for the night. SVR reports this Wednesday afternoon-evening N CT and PA closest to us, so far.
  7. wdrag
    Please don't give up on SVR I80 north between now and 3AM. Cu are developing near NNJ/NYS line and while the sewd moving line of svr did not materialize south of northern CT this afternoon, WAA SVR appears to be developing across northern PA into southeast NYS attm and possibly soon into extreme nw NJ. HRRR and FV3 are missing some of the ongoing heavy storms event but the HRRR is picking up on spotty 40-near 50 KT gusts next few hrs as convection appears to fire rapidly late this evening n of I80. It is stifling out there and that will not go without areas of drenching cooling rain near and N of I80 overnight. Gotta rest. Back at 5Am ish for the wrap and next events.
  8. wdrag
    Lastly. Per Bluewave and others on smoke... Unsure but dont think the smoke layer interfered with with yesterdays convection? Please correct me if I'm wrong. CoCoRAHS amounts from yesterday and Power Outages as of 10A this morning are residual summary impacts from yesterday.
  9. wdrag
    Am off line til at least 430P.. haven't studied anything since 4A, but the cards on the table for the next 3 days. How they're played by nature, still a little undecided but there will be pockets of significant short term impacts..., especially I80-LI northward Follow SPC, NHC, local NWS and our own participant evaluations as we move forward.
  10. wdrag
    The original intent of the thread was to highlight SVR, especially Wed (which occurred a day earlier- yesterday) and ELSA related PRE, which now is ELSA. Today-Wed-the 7th: While wind fields aloft are weaker than yesterday, they are westerly and combined with HIGH CAPE and decent PWAT, should still result in SVR's, though fewer than yesterday I78 northward. I think we're looking at more hailers today as compared to yesterday, due to TT probably 50-52, and also wet microbursts. Timing 4P-10P and even develop east onto western LI. SPC has marginal risk as of the predawn evaluation... I like their east-west depiction of the threat region. Spotty max 3" amounts possible. Thursday the 8th: Adding the potential for SVR. Looks like enough separation from ELSA and enough CAPE/Instability for southwest to northeast moving SVR (few) storms, probably developing sooner than todays. The primary threat region is eastern PA over to just nw of I95 in NJ and then across se NYS and nw CT. There is some supercell signal but for now, not emphasizing. Ensembles as of 06z/7 are still edging northwest on the track. Please follow NHC track. imo only, I think we'll need tropical headline considerations for coastal NJ/LI se New England. IF the consistent modeling of the op EC is to be believed, we're looking at 40-50 KT gusts for portions of e LI and certainly a swath of 2-4" 12 hour heavy rain somewhere near I95 Friday morning. This all TBD and so it is best to follow NWS guidance. Am off line most of the day after 9A.
  11. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    As we pile up positive departures of rainfall this July in our NYC subforum (anticipating spotty 4+ Wed-Fri this week in our area), I am interested in the period of Sunday the 11th-Friday the 16th for one to three severe weather or FF events. Details to be determined. The general setup is a strengthening Western Atlantic Ridge (WAR) resulting in a stalled surface frontal boundary roughly Appalachians to the northeast USA, PWAT building again fairly consistently to 1.8" AND decent wind aloft on the edge of the WAR. I could see this displacing west of us, but for now...the GFS/EC/GGEM op guidance has me thinking it's a bit easier to mesoscale flash flood in this pattern. Thank goodness there are no TC's (so far) to get caught up around the periphery of the Bermuda Ridge next week . Will not start this as a topic til at least Thu (8th) or Friday morning (9th), permitting further evaluation to confirm the above general impressions.
  12. wdrag
    Well that was a bigger day than I imagined but in a way not a great surprise given the NW flow case. Attached a few rainfall amounts, max wind gusts and LSR's. Wed afternoon: could be another pretty BIG day... my guess is axised more I78-I84 region including w LI. Instability large. Wind fields 5 kt less and slightly more west to east. Max point rainfall tomorrow may be close to 3". Today had at least a couple over 2" (pls see examples attached),. Thu afternoon: Could see newd moving SVR across NJ/NYS. Early Fri: ELSA impact, could be 2-54 RAIN w Wind gusts 40 kt E LI and s NJ. Figuring max point rainfall between today's rain and ELSA's ending midday Fri and the Wed-The SVR potential... iso 4.5-6", especially CT.
  13. wdrag
    Pretty big wind and rain here 534--545. 0.56" in Wantage. Power outages attached small section nw NJ.
  14. wdrag
    Am off line at times next 12 hours but you see what we have. ELSA in the picture as well as some SVR the next two afternoons. Thanks in advance for keeping up with this.
  15. wdrag
    Good Tuesday morning everyone, At 559AM, i see little change from previous. Today: SPC D1 outlook continues and modeling is favoring a new line forming to our north early this afternoon and driving south-southeast through NYC/I80 sometime between 5P-8P. Plenty of CAPE/KI/ and wind 35 kt near 680MB with TT49 should permit a few reports of SVR in our area. A second weaker line of showers may develop near I80-LI after dark but not be svr. Max point rainfall today probably close to 1.5 or 2". Many might only get a gusty shower? Wednesday: SPC D2 marginal risk. Less wind aloft but greater instability including TT near 52, to me permits SVR from I80 north late in the day. Of interest is whatever develops, may stall in its southward progression around sundown and then drift east-northeast as showery rain for a few hours. IF we get a band of heavy cells Wednesday, training and isolated point rainfall over 2" possible. ELSA: 00z/6 EC OP cycle continues northward drift of the track while the 00z/6 CMC stabilized or even slightly southeast from yesterday. 06z GFS se toward the NHC official, NAVGEM more threatening but no experience on this model.UNCERTAIN...follow NHC/Local NWS forecast offices on tracking, possible impacts. Am offline through 230P. Hopefully something of interest happens for our participants. My focus for heaviest total rainfall in our subforum the next 4 days is North of I80.
  16. wdrag
    638PM Monday July 5- EDITED Topic Title to include ELSA- Too much modeling is drifting its track within range of coastal NJ and LI for Tropical Storm considerations Thu night-Friday AM. While it's not certain to make a direct second landfall across LI/southeastern New England, think it best to open the door a little more, at the least for 4+" rains this week combined convective outbursts and whatever Elsa.
  17. wdrag
    Thanks.. cant count the chickens, so to speak - but so far, opportunity has not waned. New 12z OP is slightly closer. My thinking I-84 corridor is best chance isolated 4+ by 18z Friday, even if ELSA is a narrow miss to vcnty KACK. Probably won't comment much more til around 6A Tuesday, then off line through 230PM Tue.
  18. wdrag
    Also, in addition to the D2 upgrade... 12z CMC coming up the coast with its weaker ELSA. Whether it does? Have a day!
  19. wdrag
    Pay attention to the modeling as I think we're good on the entire thread. Already ACCAS (AC castellanas 11A here in Wantage, now buildups). Some of the modeling picking up on a big cell NYS/NJ border mid afternoon (hill driven?). Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look good for the potency and at least scattered heavy convection. Thursday: 12z GFS outlier or continuing a northwest trend??? Don't know but IFFFF NWS buys into it, then I suspect a TSWatch would eventually be needed for NJ/LI coasts for marginal TS wind.
  20. wdrag
    Unsure if anyone saw the 50 Mph gust last eve (4th) in southern Ocean Cty NJ. multi reports and about 0.4" rainfall. Attached the HPRCC beneficial % of normal rain past 7 days ending the 3rd.
  21. wdrag
    SPC Marginal added to our area Tue and Wed (please see simple attachment)... think both days warrant consideration due to pretty high HI, CAPE, KI and TT 48-51. Wind fields a little on the light-marginal side, but the soundings show a concentration of modeled near 35 KT winds near 680MB. NW flow SVR generally in my mind needs to be considered faster moving and potent (Tue afternoon) and in this case as modeled, develops somewhere north of I80 and rolls all the way south through the subforum. One scattered-broken line? Wed I think has improved divergence aloft-RRQ upper level se Canada jet and should have some SVR, especially I80 north. Thu: cirrus outflow from ELSA could minimize convective threat? otherwise IF there is to be a PRE, it's probably Northern New England or Quebec? Meanwhile, follow NHC on track. Am noting slight northward shifts the past 12 hours in EPS/EC op but that could again shift south. Not yet a guaranteed no direct rainfall impact, though for now at least, probably not much contribution here - still worthy to monitor.
  22. wdrag
    Despite the likelihood of scattered afternoon showers/iso thunderstorms (hailer g40KT NJ?) final CoCoRAHS reports for the Tue afternoon - Saturday evening totals. Wantage NJ (this part) 1.74. Have a day!
  23. wdrag
    Will add a CoCoRahs wrap-up map around 10A for Tue-Sat totals.
  24. wdrag
    Happy 4th of July to all! The overall pattern remains favorable for at least 1 day of SVR, in a portion of our subforum between Tue and Thu of this coming week. The PRE and/or direct Elsa remains for Thursday-early Fri is up in the air, in part due to strength of whatever is ELSA as it passes by, and the position of the cool front. WPC-SPC have no indicators of significant SVR-FF threats to our region this week, so taking that into account along with your views of the modeling, this thread may be of little value. On the other hand, while wind fields aloft are marginal for SVR these upcoming 3 days, the CAPE/KI and some model yields suggest potential for SVR. Thereafter, modeled PW for Thu night in the tropically benign EC reduces the risk for isolated 4"+ rainfall, but there is time for models to adjust including a better looking ELSA in the EC. For now, one might consider the GGEM an outlier ELSA solution. All I do know from the modeling, despite PW down a bit... TT remains in the lower 50s for these 3 days. That combined with NYC metro non-marine influenced HI 95-100, a nearby front and potential for divergence aloft with the upper level westerly jet across Northern New England, opens the door for an active period... especially NORTH of I80 from ne PA through se NYS-CT. I may not add anything more til Monday the 5th.
  25. wdrag
    Rainfall numbers beginning with Wed afternoon-eve (29th but posted the morning of the 30th) up in NYS-CT through the CoCoRaHs received obs this morning. Will add the updated Saturday #'s tomorrow. Decent rainfall and I thought a good forecast from WPC - attached example and the conservative multi sensor analysis through 12z/3 (1" short in parts of CT se NYS). The GFS op tends to be seemingly prolific, yet--- GFS implications are spotty max amounts as indicated and pretty good! fwiw: have seen 5.5" near Nyack NY on wx underground. Probably a few more 5+ around.
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