wdrag

Ditto Wantage NJ at 757A 31.5 1/4Mi vsby.

Good Friday morning everyone, Jan 15. I cannot topic anything right now before the 25th, and possibly nothing til the 29th or after. Blocking suppression seems to be dominant though 00z/15 GEPS and EPS give us some hope for the 21st-22nd. Am not convinced yet- 00z-06z/15 GFS V15-16, NAEFS not enthused. Am hoping that maybe an inverted trough back from the Atlantic will help us sometime between the 20th-21st, if we cant get a wave of low pressure to run as far north as the Delmarva on the 21st-early 22. Tonight-Sunday morning I84 high terrain above 1000 feet which leaves out nw NJ except Vernon, northern Wantage and the High Point area, also probably leaving out CT east of Burlington-Hartford: Rain tonight will mix with or change to wet snow or even freezing rain at times in some of the Poconos and northern Litchfield County CT, then just become snow showers at times Saturday into Sunday. Probably only an inch or less, but possibly a little higher amounts. Monday: I84 corridor, maybe a period of flurries? Tuesday night or Wednesday: I84 corridor..possibly a period or two of small accumulative snow? Hopefully others are more enthused about the modeling or maybe it will all come together for us soon. Regards.

No topics yet: Per prior discussion and 12z/14 modeling... it is worthy to note that even though the op GGEM is decent on qpf, it's ensembles are not. The result... NAEFS can't muster much qpf here... probably 0.2 or less... and note that 1000-500 thickness and BL temps are marginal I80-LI south. IF the NAEFS can crank this up on qpf a bit more and the EPS holds it's own, then I can gain confidence on a light to mdt wintry event along or just n of I80 up to I84. Was quite surprised to see how low the 12z/14 NAEFS qpf was and so that's my only hold up. I do know it's something to track and am pretty sure we'll see wintry weather in part of the forum but suppression or a warmer BL scenario can occur that could limit the extent of snow/ice in our forum. Myself, waiting til I recheck tomorrow morning. FWIW: NAEFS looks a bit better for the 25th.colder and somewhat more extensive 0.2" (5mm) into our area at least 5MM more qpf than the 21st-22nd... that's also not that much and can change. At least there is some slowly increasing support for something around the 21st-22nd. https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html That's the NAEFS link. Change the forecast cycle to 12z and leaf through the various available 24 hour parameters that verify at 00z.

Good Thursday morning everyone, Jan 14. On topics The Fri night-Sat wet snow should be just a few obs extreme northwest part of the forum. I think LI/CT can handle the 1-3" rain and gusty wind to 40 MPH early Sat. Jan 21-23 as others note... relatively small with uncertainty, but I guess any snow would be noteworthy. For now holding off on a topic... at least GGEM/EC and now the planned soon to be implemented GFSv16 are on board, but for how long, and is it mostly snow or does LI have mostly rain. West-east pulses of jet stream energy can toss out nice snows but would like to see better lower level inflow. -- Day by day starting with Today: Mainly on or north of I84. A period of inconsequential light snow possible high terrain between now-1P. Late Friday-Saturday night: Poconos (especially MT Cobb exit 8) should see 1" to worst case possibly 4" of snow and a period of untreated hazardous conditions, especially Friday night and late Saturday. Meanwhile east of PA along and north of the I84 high terrain above 700 feet, periods of rain may change to wet snow at times. Amounts of an inch or so possible highest terrain west of the Ct River (Litchfield County) but nil elsewhere. Monday the 18th: Northeast USA from Baltimore northward to I84. A period of light snow or flurries possible. No hazard and this based on strong short wave passage. Modeling tends to be dry. Late Thursday 21-late Friday 22nd: Philly to maybe as far north as I84. VERY early with uncertainty of northward extent and rain/ice line but this does appear to me to be a fairly widespread light hazardous wintry weather event of a small plowable snow and/or ice combo (except LI mainly rain?) Around Monday the 25th: Probably another widespread light wintry event from the nations midsection into the lower Great Lakes and a portion of the northeast USA. Again uncertainty. 602A/14

No significant changes to expectations from early this morning. The ensembles just don't get very excited for qpf up here after the 16th but fwiw... the 6-10day and 8-14D FM CPC updated a few minutes ago are normal precip here with a definite cool down after the 23rd. For me: No topic yet on 21st-22nd... NAEFS shows this suppressed a bit while some of the op models attempt too intense low pressure too far north. I like the idea of a secondary wave s of LI. No matter, just have to wait that out. It's not blockbuster but it looks wintry to me along and n of I80 (except maybe LI) I've added several NAEFS graphics from the 11th,12th,13th 00z cycles to show the steadiness of a qpf event Hud Valley east in the 24 hours ending 00z/17. The NAEFS seems to have been leading on this which would be the GEPS contribution. The reason i show this... NAEFS can be helpful in gauging confidence and how far off the deep end should we dive into an event. These NAEFS graphics show the mean at 5,10, 20MM (0.2", 0.4" 0.8") withe variability color coded within.

Thank you very much! Still trying to learn, remain relevant, push the envelope but maybe with a little less urgency than when at work. I don't miss the routine...just sooo many grids and trying to make the interoffice collaborative process work with unexpected differing gridded word outcomes, and of course meshing (ruffling feathers sometimes and not always correctly) differing forecaster approaches to various situations including HWO, WWA announcements. I do miss the people, the learning, challenges. Soon back to a pt retired county job... and then much less forum, and eventually in a few years possibly little forecaster forum when the models become even better, leaving less room for event outcome discussion. The forum has been a good addition to my daily life in this quieter necessarily restricted living of the past year. Thank you American Weather! Walt

Thanks for the plug. Trauma processed, but I can't even remember that bust. Sorry. I just had to move on and try to improve. I think the chances of those busts have lessened quite bit with our past 20 years of improved forecast tools-processes (ensembles, positive snow depth changes, BUFKIT-Tsection analysis, snow ratio's, snow physics understandings, collaboration with the parent center=WPC). I hope you agree. Regards, Walt

Quick idea of what I'm expecting in our NYC forum coverage area. Wintry hazardous weather opportunities, long heralded for January, but so far, suppressed to our south, should gradually become known to everyone here in the northeast USA by the end of next week (21st-22nd, for which am considering a topic but want to wait til late today before committing) My take below from a review of many 00z/13 ops and ensembles. Day by day starting with Thursday: I84 corridor to Boston. Mostly north of I84 but a period of light snow or flurries should occur between 5AM and 2PM Thursday. Probably inconsequential. Late Friday-Saturday night: Poconos should see 1 to possibly 4" of snow and a period of untreated hazardous conditions, especially Saturday afternoon-evening. Meanwhile east of PA along the the I84 high terrain above 700 feet, periods of rain change to wet snow at times, with most of the snow later Saturday. Amounts of an inch or so highest terrain but negligible in the valleys. Monday the 18th: A period of snow or flurries possible. Small amounts possible but for now, not much of a hazard, if any at all. Thursday-Friday the 21st-22nd: Entire northeast USA from Ohio eastward along and north of I80. VERY early but this does appear to be a fairly widespread hazardous wintry weather event of plowable snow and/or ice. Rain could get involved south of I84?? Just too early for me to be sure of suppression that allows significant snow into NYC. Around Monday the 25th: Probably another widespread wintry event from the nations midsection into the lower Great Lakes and a portion of the northeast USA. If it's not the 25th, then maybe the 27th but for now am concentrating on the 25th. For both the 21st-22nd and ~ the 25th: Potentially a period of travel problems for many in the heart of winter. The usual amount of uncertainties prevail, inclusive of how strong the Canadian high pressure and it's suppressive southward dominance in the northern USA. Added a couple of GEFS probs from the 00z/13 GEFS (chance of Greater than 2" of snow, and chance of >1/4" qpf). Serves as a starter to compare future ensemble probs. Have a good day.

Good Wednesday morning to all, Jan 13. Weather.US models rts ~550A EST. I think our long rangers are going to be relatively happy... flurries into NYC Sat night or Sunday Morning, maybe a period of wet light melting snow Monday in NYC, and then potential for several events late 21st through the end of the month. I'm thinking a model topic for 1/21-22. Even if mostly wet NYC, I think a significant wintry event for part of our area, between I80 and I90 (Ohio eastward), is coming in that two day time frame per GFS 15 and 16, GGEM, NAEFS and EPS ensemble.

Sighhhh, no insight. I see the stats written herein on little or no snow NYC in this pattern that seems to be changing from ne -sw to w-e systems later in the month. 12z/12 NAEFS is basically dry (less than 5MM North of 35N eastern USA) after whatever occurs the 16th, til at least the 24th. I see the12z/12 EPS has something for the Carolinas to NYC around late 20 or 21 and that could happen but? So far, its not in the GEFS/NAEFS. Have my fingers crossed for the NAEFS to start showing something legit soon (10 mm in 24 hours), even if it trails the EPS/GEFS by a day or so. The one bit of good news from my perspective: IFFF????? we get something later in the month, the thicknesses and BL temps might be cold enough for snow ratios 12 to 1 or higher??? IFFFFF we can hold the projected cooler thicknesses and BL temps later in the month. I too like the pattern as many discuss here...just have to respect climo and blocking suppression and getting everything to mesh right. Right now: watching what may happen the 16th for a few hours high terrain of I84. Boundary layer warmth is the problem there. Til tomorrow.

Good Tuesday morning everyone, Jan 12. I don't think any significant widespread hazardous wintry weather events are showing up for most of NYC forum prior to the 25th, nor any sustained below normal cold that lasts more than 3 days. We may eventually be able to topic an OBS thread for the I84 corridor late 15-16 high terrain, and there will be a few dustings I84 corridor, possibly starting as early as this Thursday the 14th, and on into the middle of next week. I just don't see anything big down here, at least not yet. Specifically the Poconos: A hazardous wintry snow event is likely late Friday and Saturday morning (15-16) when 1 to possibly as much as 4" may accumulate, with small additional accumulations of snow showers thereafter into Sunday. I84 east of PA: a low chance of a slight accumulation of snow higher terrain Saturday the 16th (rain ends as snow?), some flurry dustings Sunday? Then the 18th-20th--chance for a period of light snow. Around Monday the 25th: By this date, a pattern change will probably allow the development of a widespread wintry event from the nations midsection into the lower Great Lakes and a portion of the northeast USA. Not necessarily major but potentially a travel problem for many. The usual amount of uncertainties prevail, inclusive of how strong the Canadian high pressure and it's suppressive southward dominance in the northern USA, as well as the strength and progressiveness of a strong short wave(s) heading east from the western USA. I see the 06z/12 para has the 25th weak and a second stronger ~ the 27TH. I do not know what will happen but I like a pattern with cold high pressure already stretched to our north along the Canadian-US border, in advance of any WAA.

12z GFS now starting to post on Pivatol where they had the headline for a delay.

Thanks much.

Think NCEP having or was having a comms problem with the 12z/11 cycle but GGEM rolling and continues minor hopes for all amounts I84 west part 16th.

Looks that way but the GGEM is coming in pretty fast. Continues to have a little hopeful small amounts I84, western part for the 16th.

Good Monday morning everyone, Jan 11. In my review of 00z/11 multiple ensembles, 00z-06z/11 operational models, the preponderance of model signals do not indicate (to me) significant widespread hazardous wintry weather events for most of the NYC forum prior to the 25th, nor any sustained below normal cold. Eventually something has to change for the I84-195 corridors (long shots 16th, or 18th-20th, 25th). Poconos: There may be a hazardous wintry snow event late Friday or Saturday morning (15-16), with dustings of flurries possible thereafter into Sunday. GFSV16. Large scale neg tilt trough moving ene from the Ohio Valley which also applies to the I84 below on Saturday. I84 east of PA: very low chance (Boundary Layer seems too warm) of a slight accumulation of snow Saturday the 16th (rain ends as snow? GFS V16, GGEM, EPS), some flurry dustings Sunday? Then the 18th-20th--low chance of some snow which that too could be suppressed southeast out to sea. Monitor but from my perspective, don't yet count on much. ~Monday the 25th: I may regret this part because verifying a widespread event 14 days in advance is about a coin flip or less, and so this is said with very very low confidence, It appears to me that an extensive area of precipitation may develop from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and northeast USA. The only thing I can say about this date (~25th) is that this seems to be the first extensive potential overrunning - storm system we have here in the northeast USA for the next two weeks (non rapidly moving vortex related CFP's). The baroclinic zone will shift from ne-sw over the se third of the USA to e-w somewhere in the Ohio Valley as two troughs evolve (Maritimes and w Coast). I know that we like a ridge in the w USA for big east coast troughs, but something is modeled in the multiple ensembles to begin growing in the Ohio Valley. Amounts are small right now, and so this could be a bust, but I do see a build up of at least normally cold or even colder than normal air trying to bank up from the Plains northwestward. So unless we do a 50-50 low at that time, we probably would have a cutter (inside runner) and mostly rain here along I95, maybe wintry further northwest. Still, this is about the coldest time of the year. Just going to let this sit for a week, and try to clear out the earlier threats of the 16th, 18th-20th and whatever suddenly shows up; and then see if the Ohio Valley storm system actually occurs.

Good Sunday morning everyone, Dec 10. No significant widespread hazardous wintry weather events are showing up in the preponderance of modeling for the next two weeks, nor any sustained below normal cold. Eventually something has to change. I will probably will wait 2 or 3 successive consistent op and ensemble cycles before any potential topic. Just too much suppression. 15-16th 500MB digging into the northeast USA still looks impressive but probably too late for any wave on the front. GFS is just charging offshore with the cfront while one 00z/10 GGEM cycle holds back and offers minimal hope for the 16th. NAEFS is not impressed with anything around here through the 25th. Make it a good one.

You'll like the Para for Fri-Sat... it's something that a trough like this could induce... minor for I84 but something. GFS for the 18th????? who knows but impressive out of the mid part of continent. I know some on here have been interested for the 18th. Good to just maintain and hope that one of these turns into something you'll enjoy.

Just did this for New England forum... yes... pattern isn't bad... better than record setting USA 5s00MB ridge in the southeast USA. We have chances...they might not emerge til 2-3 days out?? But admittedly--- no clear cut favored snow event, yet. 06z/9 GEFS cycle slightly better. I've added 3 graphics. GEFS lows for 00z/16 as a sample, which is an event not completely north of us... but also prospects not that great here, despite what i think is quite a pair of shortwaves digging a big somewhat neg tilt through down the GLakes into the northeast. Then, added the 06z/ GEFs spaghetti 500MB for the 18th--- i think you all were referring to the cutter and I like this look too, for POTENTIAL, but I'd like more digging etc. The following GEFS qpf has minor bulge in the northeast as graphic added. Not a big deal but us snow lovers, we want to renew, so we'll look, but not jump.

Funny comments... thanks for the repost. 06z/9 cycle slightly better. I've added 4 graphics. GEFS lows for 00z/16 as a sample, which is an event not completely north of us... but also prospects not that great here, despite what i think is quite a pair of shortwaves digging a big somewhat neg tilt through down the GLakes into the northeast. Then, added the 06z/ GEFs spaghetti 500MB for the 18th--- i think you all were referring to the cutter and I like this look too, for POTENTIAL, but I'd like more digging etc. The following GEFS qpf has minor bulge in the northeast as graphic added. Not a big deal but us snow lovers, we want to renew, so we'll look, but not jump. Finally, you all probably saw this?? I've added a graph provided to us in the NYC forum (Bluewave post), about winters warming since 1970... not sure how the science was done but I think this pretty accurate... Some us who are 65 or 70+ years of age remember the winters that a few inches would fall, then would be followed by enough blustery cold that ridges would need plowing 24 hours after the storm... those were the more extended fun sledding and pond skating days, for me.

like the zzzzzzz that's what it seems to be for awhile. I did run our family cars (lucky to have two) through the car wash the past two days, in anticipation of little or no qpf for about a week or so. Good to get other stuff done now.

Good Saturday morning everyone-Jan 9. Quiet time. Nothing for me to latch onto. No major long lasting below normal outbreak foreseen here prior to Saturday January 23, and until something suddenly emerges, no significant snows around here prior to the 18th. I was hoping the big 500MB trough digging and going negative for a time through the northeast USA Fri-Sat 15th-16th would give us a chance but so far, nothing doing. 00z/9 GEFS and EPS have us with less than 1" qpf next 16 days. So something will have to change the pattern. Unsure when the stratwarm snowier impacts will show up here, if at all. Maybe someone else can be more optimistic.

fwiw: No topic yet, for a possible minor grazer around the 12th. Marginal snow temps and unknown northward extent. 00z/8 NAEFS/GEFS/EPS are northward from yesterdays cycles. Will reevaluate late today but i cant see going for a topic with less than 1" snow... other than an OBS topic for the date. Just need to wait it out and get other stuff done. Friday the 15th: Models have a notable cold front and it's possible there will be a period of small accumulative hazardous snow in the I84 corridor? Probably no big deal but it is a vigorous system and a week away so the forecast could change a bit. Skating ice nw NJ: I wouldn't try skating on any pond/lake around nw NJ til after January 25th, if at all this winter. I finally see some below normal 850 temps in the ensembles after the 22nd in w Canada... that is a change. However NAEFS through the 22nd h'as no below normal cold in the USA/Canada. Just have to wait and see if we ever really get the stratwarm event - colder than normal impact down here. Stratwarm events are not my strong suit. Have a day!

Excellent! Thank you very much.... Walt

I thought i saw a post on on temps past 50 years averaging near 4F warmer in winter than prior to 1970. Can someone just reference the post for me and show me the documentation. I like it... Thank you. Walt