wdrag

fwiw: a week ago originally anticipated weekend of 19-20 Tropical infusion, apparently delayed and may still miss to our south... but fwiw... here the EPS modeling from 00z/16. Doesn't mean this clustering will be correct. Worthy of monitoring. Otherwise if we miss this, we might be seeing it a little on the drier side the next couple of weeks??

Good Wednesday morning everyone, The Sunday-Tuesday totals were less than anticipated w NJ, and LI didn't do well. Radar seemed to have spotty higher AMT in NYS-CT but not seen in CoCoRAHS, with a max only 2.4" in NJ. Yesterdays anticipated cold core thunder-small hail did not materialize in our area, as far as I can tell.

Disappointing overnight most of forum ne PA, NW NJ, interior se NYS, bit it's lighting up bit now near NYC. I like the SVR outlook posted above from SPC and despite poor performance overnight in the WAA down our way, still believe widespread 1/4" iso 3+ b y 10P Tues with small hailers Tue afternoon in some spots. Have a day.

Wantage NJ (this part of extreme nw NJ) .01 of widespread 1/4 to as much as spotty 3.0" in the parts of the NYC forum by 10PM Tuesday. Batch one now in nw NJ, suspect 1-2 batches tonight, possibly 1 leftover batch Monday morning,?and probably 1 more band Monday evening-night and with the cold low aloft, more scattered showers/tstms in lower 1" PWAT with small hailers possible Tue afternoon and Wed afternoon. Good for parts of the area. Been sprinkling here at times since just before 9A this morning then it picked up around 11A. Probably ready to click .02 by 1145A. Edited 423P: SPC expanded Marginal risk into NYC in their D2 afternoon update. Looks to me like a few svr will occur e PA/NJ and possibly into NYC late Mon afternoon-evening.

Rainfall yesterday, and this week ending ~8A Sat June 12. Not good LI but the rest of the area, got some decent amounts, especially NJ, ne PA and even spotty in se NYS,sw CT

Review time: Despite only light amounts of showers expected in parts of our area between now and midday Saturday ( models were too far north a week ago on what will happen south of I78 today), we still did okay., Here's some amounts (3 day)---except e LI. Also the weekend of the 19th-20th seems to be favoring a dying tropical intrusion up this way. No details yet and no topic since it's so far all in a seemingly normal less than 3" range for an event.

No topics but fwiw... noted on what I call modest svr wx events of late May/early June. Heavy showers/thunderstorms seem in store for parts of NJ/se NYS maybe NYC 4-10P Monday (PW 1.5") , possibly something predawn Tue, then it should light up 1130A-130P Tuesday. PW up to 1.8" Tuesday. . Modeling after Tue suggests more Wed, and possibly FRI? This will probably further assist alleviating dryness in parts of our area, presuming 1-5" rain occurs in parts of the subforum by sunrise Saturday the 12th. Could be iso svr via wet microburst potential Tuesday but winds aloft are fairly weak with TT marginal ~47-48. I did note the tropical rains trying to involve the northeast around 280-340 hours (~19th), and a couple of cycles of this. We'll see if this can hold as we close in on D7 (144 hrs) - not worth losing sleep over.

After the rains of the 26th-30th, I think the Drought monitor will ease a bit toward normal, plus more rain coming Thu-Fri, it's all helping. So %'s of normal via HPRCC for the past week, month and 6 months are appended. Place not to be is near the Canadian border, if you want water. SVR Thu-Fri: I think the morning is just gully washers where it does rain, no svr; Late Thu-Thu eve...decent wind fields, TT near 50 NYS... and so SPC slight risk looks fine, but am not planning to highlight a topic... as per the recent event that stopped at the NJ coast and also traveled n of POU-DXR. Fri: Less wind aloft but seems pretty unstable and might be a small svr producer? As for heat: NAEFS suggests ridge aloft may minimize the cool downs (850 not as cool) slated for week 3?

It's 6 days off... we know intermittent action late Wed-Fri. After that? Modeling still has some troubles D5 and beyond on timing. Terrible miss for this past Sunday as late as Tuesday 's modeling, tho we probably all knew Sunday might not be a decent day due to trough aloft. Took a while for modeling to coalesce on the Sunday event. It was ~ 12z/26 when modeling drifted toward the second event, originally heralded by the GGEM Not sure if anyone checks the GGEM... need that on board with the EC/GFS to be personally assured of an event. Drought monitor will probably adjust next issuance. HPRCC may have some updated #s this afternoon or Tuesday. What happened this weekend was overall for the betterment of our lives, as dismal as it was. Am confident next weekend won't repeat that cold.Later, Walt

Not pretending to know the influences, but per NAEFS, and general pattern... looks like potential for more than the normal 90+ for the NYC metro area in June, beginning after June 5. June CP norms 90 or greater from what I see, (3) and max 90 or greater (11). So I could easily be wrong and seeing too warm. Also if needed correct me on CP stats, thanks! Plenty more rain for parts of the subforum Wed-weekend, then turn on the bigger warmth.

CoCoRAHS Sunday amounts, entire event amounts (late Fri-Sun -iso max around 4.5", and late Wed -Sunday dual event totals (ISO Max a little over 6" Ocean County NJ and around 4.5" CT/LI). Please see maps for your area of interest.

2.55 Wantage NJ. Will post CoCo RAHS event totals and totals since late Wed, sometime between 10A-3P. Max event so far 4.41 Ocean County and max since late Wed 5.96 Ocean County. Early in the Monday morning reporting cycle.

6.6nw Chapman PA

Some numbers: the top 2 are the current ongoing event (coCoRaHs) that began late Friday May 28, and the bottom are the CoCoRahs totals since late Wednesday the 26th. Seems like spotty 6-7" totals likely coastal NJ by Noon Monday, and I think still a chance of spotty 6" LI. This part of Wantage only 2.10 this two day event and and 2.24 since late Wed, small by comparison elsewhere.

I didn’t check. Few near 49 MPH NJ coast and 40-45 LI. Looking impressive to me fir large scale bands of heavy rain eastern USA next Two weeks. Focus of course near stalled boundaries. Maybe New England and upper NYS miss out after Monday morning but otherwise lots of pwat and persistent Bermuda high seems to me to be setting up. Summer

Where rainfall was documented only via CoCoRahs since late Wed the26th through daybreak Sat the 29th.

1.87 this part of Wantage NJ. Seeing new 12z 3K NAM, checking EC and HRRR PW and probable nwd moving low to w LI Sunday, won't surprise at iso 5-6" by Monday morning LI/CT. PWAT increases tomorrow in a developing southerly 850 jet, and TT increase to 50. Some of the guidance has small hail ALY CWA. So Sunday will see, I think, bigger totals in some spots of LI/CT than the amts recorded already. We definitely need the water. Have attached amounts that begin with the showers/storms late Wednesday the 26th through around 8AM today... several 4+ coastal Nj and I think anywhere 2.5 of greater has a chance to ~6" by Monday morning. Unless someone wants the topic, I'll leave it be... but LI/CT/coastal NJ... looking very good for at least isolated 2-3.5" additional Noon today-6A Monday, most of it Sunday, raising isolated totals to ~6". Later, Walt cant upload attachments for some reason: 1141A/wd

Good Saturday morning everyone, Judging from the mesonet reports etc, I suspect a few spots in our NYC forum will reach~ 4" by Monday morning. Cold and nasty but needed. For the record books here and there but main impact no picnics/beaches/causal walks. Also was aware of the severe wx threat a few days ago but somehow just wasn't too alarmed. Saw the reports in NJ/se NYS/n CT. Saving the topic posts for big flooding, more widespread SVR wind where concentrated BIUG damage or most involved. Seems like the forum is going well as is. Looking forward to the transition to 90+ heat and 70+ dew points sometime after June 6 through at least part of the second week of June. I see CPC likes it pretty warm week 3-4 and NAEFS has been bullish on the heat coming in June. This rain is making more surface moisture available for the Bermuda High to work with come June 6 onward.

Wantage 0.32 since 6A... (.01 6A-7A), then the bulk from ~930A onward. EC was steady on this and some of the NAM/ SPC HREF/GGEM had it too but not much after 2P and variable inconsistency, so much so that I was getting depressed about not having significant rain today after seeing some of the 12z and 18z/7 guidance. Turns out that guidance available leading up to 20z/Wed May 5 and resultant cancel decisionfor an important outdoor project today, worked out. Was sweating it last night. mPing showing many hail reports NNJ-PA/MD after 230PM.

No thread yet for the coastal Friday but GEFS seems to be leading the way as the EPS is trending south. No agreement yet between various ops and so holding for another day or two but this apparently is going to be a somewhat interesting first 15 days of May. Had a pollen-backdoor cool front go through here in the past 90 minutes. Waves of pollen in the northeast flow here recently. Backdoor is/was on the EWR TDWR.

Adding PHI max gusts now... just updated. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1105 AM EDT Sat May 1 2021 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... ...Kent County... Dover 46 MPH 0601 PM 04/30 AWOS ...New Castle County... Wilmington 52 MPH 1108 PM 04/30 ASOS ...Sussex County... Lewes NOS 59 MPH 1054 PM 04/30 NOS-NWLON 1 WNW Lewes 57 MPH 0618 PM 04/30 Mesonet Dewey Beach 55 MPH 0632 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Georgetown 46 MPH 0750 PM 04/30 ASOS Delmar, DE-Gumboro 46 MPH 0800 PM 04/30 DEOS2 ...Maryland... ...Queen Anne`s County... Grasonville 47 MPH 0525 PM 04/30 CWOP ...Talbot County... Easton Newnam 46 MPH 1055 PM 04/30 AWOS ...New Jersey... ...Atlantic County... Atlantic City International 64 MPH 0519 PM 04/30 ASOS Pleasantville Point 51 MPH 0629 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Atlantic City 49 MPH 1145 AM 04/30 NJWXNET Mullica Twp. 47 MPH 0510 PM 04/30 NJWXNET ...Burlington County... Moorestown 55 MPH 0145 PM 04/30 NJWXNET 2 SW Rancocas 55 MPH 0145 PM 04/30 Mesonet McGuire AFB 54 MPH 0159 PM 04/30 AWOS ...Camden County... Pennsauken 52 MPH 0135 PM 04/30 NJWXNET ...Cape May County... Cape May 56 MPH 1017 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Cape May 49 MPH 0630 PM 04/30 AWOS Dennis Twp. 47 MPH 0525 PM 04/30 NJWXNET Sea Isle City 45 MPH 0531 PM 04/30 CWOP Woodbine 45 MPH 0615 PM 04/30 NJWXNET Woodbine Muni 45 MPH 0623 PM 04/30 AWOS ...Cumberland County... Fortesque 56 MPH 1000 PM 04/30 NJWXNET Millville 47 MPH 0555 PM 04/30 ASOS ...Hunterdon County... Pittstown 50 MPH 0345 PM 04/30 NJWXNET Readington 45 MPH 0459 PM 04/30 AWOS ...Mercer County... Trenton 49 MPH 0143 PM 04/30 ASOS ...Middlesex County... Perth Amboy 51 MPH 0505 PM 04/30 WXFLOW ...Monmouth County... Port Monmouth 53 MPH 0500 PM 04/30 CWOP Belmar Farmdale 52 MPH 0510 PM 04/30 AWOS Keyport 48 MPH 0430 PM 04/30 CWOP Monmouth 48 MPH 0213 AM 05/01 WXFLOW Sea Girt 47 MPH 0540 PM 04/30 NJWXNET ...Ocean County... 2 SSW Barnegat Light 67 MPH 0529 PM 04/30 Mesonet Beach Haven 59 MPH 0601 PM 04/30 CWOP Rutgers 59 MPH 0602 PM 04/30 WXFLOW 3 NNW Barnegat Light 58 MPH 0234 PM 04/30 Mesonet 4 ESE Lanoka Harbor 58 MPH 0234 PM 04/30 Mesonet 4 SE Mystic Island 58 MPH 0559 PM 04/30 Mesonet Tuckerton 58 MPH 0559 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Trixies 54 MPH 0236 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Mantoloking 54 MPH 0404 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Harvey Cedars 53 MPH 0505 PM 04/30 NJWXNET Lakehurst NAS 51 MPH 0247 PM 04/30 AWOS Seaside Heights 50 MPH 0340 PM 04/30 NJWXNET Toms River 49 MPH 0249 PM 04/30 AWOS North Beach Haven 48 MPH 0600 PM 04/30 CWOP Surf City 48 MPH 0246 AM 05/01 CWOP North Beach Haven 47 MPH 0100 PM 04/30 CWOP Island Heights 46 MPH 0425 PM 04/30 CWOP Point Pleasant 45 MPH 0120 PM 04/30 NJWXNET ...Somerset County... Somerville 46 MPH 0127 AM 05/01 ASOS ...Sussex County... Wallkill River Nwr 50 MPH 0556 PM 04/30 RAWS ...Warren County... Stewartsville 45 MPH 0500 PM 04/30 NJWXNET ...Pennsylvania... ...Berks County... Fleetwood 62 MPH 1245 PM 04/30 CWOP Reading Regional Airport 54 MPH 1226 PM 04/30 ASOS Lenhartsville 48 MPH 0303 PM 04/30 CWOP ...Bucks County... Nockamixon 51 MPH 0435 PM 04/30 WXFLOW Doylestown 47 MPH 0441 PM 04/30 ASOS Newbold NOS 46 MPH 0348 PM 04/30 NOS-PORTS Newtown 45 MPH 0135 PM 04/30 CWOP ...Chester County... White Clay Creek West Grove- 52 MPH 0505 PM 04/30 DEOS2 Atglen 46 MPH 0459 PM 04/30 CWOP West Chester 45 MPH 0302 PM 04/30 AWOS ...Delaware County... Thornton 48 MPH 0557 PM 04/30 CWOP ...Lehigh County... Whitehall Twp 51 MPH 0505 PM 04/30 Trained Spotter Lehigh Valley Intl Airport 49 MPH 0423 PM 04/30 ASOS Macungie 45 MPH 0300 PM 04/30 CWOP ...Monroe County... Mt. Pocono 55 MPH 0253 AM 05/01 ASOS ...Montgomery County... King of Prussia 55 MPH 0140 PM 04/30 Trained Spotter ...Northampton County... Forks Twp 61 MPH 0445 PM 04/30 Trained Spotter North Catasauqua 54 MPH 0500 PM 04/30 Trained Spotter

More data to show timing, max G, in our forum. Timing was decent as the modeled outcome, maybe a little robust NYC than I would have expected, which means other forecast gust sources were a little shy for NYC including HRRR, SPC HREF and the previously mentioned RGEM/GGEM, even the EC. 000 NOUS41 KOKX 011134 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-012334- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 734 AM EDT SAT MAY 1 2021 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... LOCATION SPEED TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...CONNECTICUT... ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... GREENWICH 60 MPH 0300 PM 04/30 CWOP BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 48 MPH 0506 PM 04/30 ASOS NORWALK 45 MPH 1029 AM 04/30 CWOP ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... NEW HAVEN 55 MPH 1235 PM 04/30 CWOP LIGHTHOUSE POINT 52 MPH 0357 PM 04/30 WXFLOW HAMMONASSET 46 MPH 0628 PM 04/30 WXFLOW WATERBURY AIRPORT 45 MPH 0612 PM 04/30 AWOS ...NEW JERSEY... ...BERGEN COUNTY... TETERBORO AIRPORT 49 MPH 0400 PM 04/30 ASOS ...ESSEX COUNTY... CALDWELL 46 MPH 1039 PM 04/30 ASOS ...HUDSON COUNTY... BAYONNE 50 MPH 0108 AM 05/01 WXFLOW HARRISON 45 MPH 0540 PM 04/30 AWS ...UNION COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 53 MPH 1208 PM 04/30 ASOS ...NEW YORK... ...BRONX COUNTY... FORDHAM 45 MPH 1250 AM 05/01 NYSM ...KINGS COUNTY... BROOKLYN COLLEGE 49 MPH 1235 PM 04/30 NYSM ...NASSAU COUNTY... BAYVILLE 53 MPH 0743 PM 04/30 WXFLOW WANTAGH 47 MPH 0245 PM 04/30 NYSM MERRICK 46 MPH 0445 PM 04/30 CWOP 0.8 NW UNIONDALE 45 MPH 1220 AM 05/01 MESOWEST ...NEW YORK COUNTY... MIDTOWN MANHATTAN 60 MPH 0220 PM 04/30 NYSM ...ORANGE COUNTY... STEWART AIRPORT 46 MPH 0645 PM 04/30 AWOS MONTGOMERY AIRPORT 45 MPH 0257 PM 04/30 AWOS ...PUTNAM COUNTY... BREWSTER 45 MPH 0510 PM 04/30 NYSM ...QUEENS COUNTY... NYC/LA GUARDIA 61 MPH 0412 PM 04/30 ASOS KEW GARDEN HILLS 57 MPH 0225 PM 04/30 NYSM NYC/JFK AIRPORT 51 MPH 0607 PM 04/30 ASOS JACKSON HEIGHTS 51 MPH 1228 AM 05/01 CWOP ...RICHMOND COUNTY... 2 SE ELIZABETH 56 MPH 1230 AM 05/01 NDBC COLLEGE OF STATEN ISLAND 49 MPH 0540 PM 04/30 NYSM ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... SUFFERN 46 MPH 1155 PM 04/30 NYSM ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... EATONS NECK 66 MPH 1057 PM 04/30 WXFLOW STONY BROOK 65 MPH 0342 PM 04/30 CWOP BAITING HOLLOW 52 MPH 1030 PM 04/30 CWOP GREAT GULL ISLAND 50 MPH 0131 AM 05/01 WXFLOW WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT 48 MPH 1102 AM 04/30 ASOS SHIRLEY AIRPORT 47 MPH 0350 PM 04/30 ASOS FIRE ISLAND CG 46 MPH 0258 PM 04/30 WXFLOW ISLIP AIRPORT 45 MPH 0820 PM 04/30 ASOS ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... TAPPAN ZEE LIGHT 14 54 MPH 0858 PM 04/30 WXFLOW WHITE PLAINS AIRPORT 49 MPH 0934 PM 04/30 ASOS CROTON 45 MPH 0347 PM 04/30 WXFLOW ...MARITIME STATIONS... ...CONNECTICUT... 2 SSE NEW HAVEN 52 MPH 0524 PM 04/30 NOS-PORTS STONGINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER 52 MPH 0243 PM 04/30 WXFLOW 1 ESE NORWALK 48 MPH 0755 PM 04/30 WXFLOW 2 S GROTON 48 MPH 0640 PM 04/30 NDBC ...NEW JERSEY... JERSEY CITY 65 MPH 0553 PM 04/30 CWOP ...NEW YORK... ROBBINS REEF, NJ 62 MPH 1112 PM 04/30 NOS-PORTS POINT O WOODS YC 55 MPH 0302 PM 04/30 WXFLOW SHINNECOCK 53 MPH 0414 PM 04/30 WXFLOW 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH 49 MPH 0110 AM 05/01 NDBC MANHATTAN DWNTWN 49 MPH 0958 AM 04/30 AWOS 26 SSE ROBERT MOSES STATE PA 49 MPH 0230 AM 05/01 NDBC LARCHMONT HARBOR 46 MPH 0845 PM 04/30 WXFLOW KINGS POINT 45 MPH 1124 PM 04/30 NOS-NWLON 19 SSE EAST HAMPTON 45 MPH 0100 AM 05/01 NDBC && My max gust occurred in Wantage at 340AM, 40 MPH. Tree split next door.

So, as noted in a 'please verify' post earlier this page, 00z-06z/1 ensemble modeling is trending toward a sharpening digging trough here that may yield a sizable winterlike storm Friday the 7th, with 40-50kt wind gusts (coasts), heavy rain (coasts) and maybe a little wet snow elevations. Still plenty of room to miss us to the east, or be weaker than a 985MB sfc low but worthy of monitoring. Possibly threading this, Sunday or Monday? Need NAVGEM and GGEM to shift back to the west, the EC op to accept the occasional GFS cycle operational big storm concept for our NYC metro. Again, not threaded yet due too much chance of this storm slipping too far to our east-northeast.

Good Saturday morning. I'm awaiting some final reports. Max wind gusts appeared for the most part prior to 8PM tho there was a second surge during the night with MPO, and our home in Wantage (among possibly others) maxing out between midnight and 4A today. I didn't check ACARS soundings from yesterday, so am unsure why it seemed to me the wind overpreformed a bit during Friday afternoon but have seen this before, where the sounding lapse rate transfer finds more wind that wasn't obviously modeled. Probably some unknowns (to me) going on with transfer. In any case, NAM/GFS/EC modeling I think had a good handle on general areas of concern NYC west. I was disappointed in the RGEM/GGEM runup to this event. Next up: see May thread.

I may not keep up w all the reports, but I'm sure summary reports will be added Saturday morning. Power outages going up pretty fast. Not much yet in New England as max wind axis and cold core is NYS-PA.