wdrag

The upper air closed low development has probably ended up further east than ensembled a few days ago, resulting in shifting 1+" qpf and snowfall further east. I think it gets a little convective late today-this evening as cooling aloft arrives. NWS probs for 1+inch of snow are low in the I84 corridor so it's possible this modeling is also far too generous for accums: especially the HRRX (top). The SPC HREF might be a little closer and tends to mirror some of the HRRR and EC/EPS while the GEFS has very little in our area. I84 corridor only. Wet snow CT/MA, and maybe a few flakes and slightest covering high terrain POCS, high Point NJ? The storm will develop a bit further east than anticipated a few days ago. Results in greatest potential for accumulative wet snow in northern CT and MA high terrain. Occasionally heavy rain there should change to wet snow overnight and accumulate maybe up to an inch in the valleys and possibly 4+ inches high terrain of northern CT; 'possibly' 6+ inches high terrain west and central MA. Boston may see some wet snow Fri afternoon and night with 'possible' accumulations, especially near route 128. Meanwhile the POCS and nw NJ should see bands of showers this afternoon and evening, then 'possible' spotty minor snow showers Friday with any minor possible accumulations reserved for elevations above 1500 feet. A couple of maps attached that show potential snowfall from this storm. These amounts are probably exaggerated by several inches but you can see the terrain related. I don't think I'll be updating at all today, prior to 9P, if then. Have a day.

553P/12: South of I80 and also all of LI: probably no snow except possibly a short period of wet snow, melting on contact Friday. For the interior suburbs, especially elevations nw to ne of NYC, this could become a problem wet snow impacting power, and for those with heart conditions - safe removal of the water loaded accumulations. Shovels and plows may be of value in the hilly areas Friday morning,. Banding is likely to occur Thursday night-Friday in the northwest sector of the upper low that will enhance precipitation rates in some areas. EPS 850MB easterly inflow as of the 12z/12 cycle was twice that of the GEFS, Therefore, the ensemble snowfall yield from the GEFS is minimal - under 1" while the attached EPS is considerably more. It's too early to be overly confident of 6+" of wet snow, in parts of the extreme nw part of the forum, but certainly possible. IF 6" were to occur at 33F, I'd be thinking of power outages by 9AM Friday. Snow water ratio's may be less than the 10 to 1 used by the ensembles. It should be noted that the WPC Monday outlook for 3+" of snow is only spotty 10% chance in the Catskills. I think this is largely based on the GEFS. Still marginal temps and a breakdown in the 850MB inflow to a weaker GEFS solution would nix the risk of heavier snow. The bulk of any snow should accumulate during Thursday night, lingering into Friday with possibly a second batch of trailer heavier snowfall in the wraparound band Friday evening, especially CT/MA high terrain. As the snowfall rates lessen during midday Friday and afternoon, it could change back to rain. It is an interesting situation and not unheard of. Even last May 9 we had accumulative snow in some of the suburbs, so I don't think of this as a new normal. In summary: Looks interesting for the hilly areas northwest to northeast of NYC. How much and is it worthy of a thread, we'll know in 5 days. I'll be following the NAM/GFS positive snow depth change... that to me becomes the minimum to look for, once it is consistently established from cycle to cycle. And of course, Kuchera and NWS products. Small chance gusty winds 40-45KT e LI Friday?. Meanwhile, LI/CT/se NYS, ne PA should pick up a general melted combined rain/snow of 1-2", iso 3"?

Wantage, NJ 1.05. so far.

I will get a thread started by 715pm. Need to check some guidance. Big amounts possible northwest quad of the closer low in the deformation zone. Banding of a moist unstable lapse rate. Am on the road and won’t have checked anything close til 7p. Want to see the N latch on and then use the positive snow depth change as base amount. If it indeed is 6+ 33F wet snow power outages would occur. Anyway, something to look at

Good Monday morning all, This part of Wantage NJ, 0.88 as of 450A. I see some of the heaviest appears NYC nwwd along the NYS/NJ border with 1+ so far, and plenty more to come with the inverted trough and slowly sewd departing low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast. That rain ending toward 12z Tuesday. Not threading the nor'easter potent elevation snow event for Thu-Fri, til at least this evening. Could yield a period of non accumulating snow all the way to the coast Friday morning but marginal BL temps could leave it all rain except above 1000 feet. GEFS still not responding to the GFS op, so while I like the EC idea, with banding well nw of the Low aloft, prefer to more carefully review after my work day is complete. This could also yield 45 kt wind gusts parts of LI, tho modeling is overall signaling 40 kt max. QPF should be a general 1-3" depending on duration with 3" max probably isolated. You'll know more much sooner than I. Fun to speculate. I like the track of ensembled 500 LOW, hopefully it goes another 30 MI south for our forum but it's not too shabby. Have a good day.

0.63 so far in this part of Wantage NJ. Made the correction to my intended 330PM message (suburban). now checking further...fwiw.. all very minor, but WPC has spotty 10% chance of 3+" of snow in the Catskills by 12z Friday.

What am seeing is increasing EC op wintry look, tho EPS I thought was a little ahead of GEFS on snow acc. If it’s still on the models tomorrow with 4 inches suburban elevations, would thread. Nothing today from myself on this. For auburn to suburban at 452, after returning to better vision at home. aging... glad I got here. don't rush it.

Good morning nw-ne suburbs... this Sunday April 11. At the risk of being embarrassed for a non-occurrence, think it good to post my impression of multiple models heading into elevated wet snows the next two weeks. Where and when? I do think some of our friends at 1000 feet or more will get a chance to witness snow, maybe even accums. Here's what I posted to a small FB gourd of friends this morning after implying a week ago Saturday that there could be some snow in the elevations this weekend. Let's see if anything happens: Good Sunday morning I84! Wheres the elevation snow you ask? Coming. First chance in the Poconos Monday night. Miniscule amounts if any snow occurs at the tail end of what will be 1-2" rain between now and Monday night in ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS. Less rainfall CT/MA for this one. But there's more: Thursday night-Saturday (15-17): Looks like a pretty good chance of a nor'easter that could see rain change to wet snow in the elevations, with accumulations of several inches above 1500 feet (for starters), High Point NJ, Mt Cobb in the Poconos and potentially the same in the hieest elevations above 1000 feet in CT/MA. Is there more? It may not be over after Saturday the 17th. Could be another opportunity later the following week (toward the 24th? Bottom line: It's April in the northeast USA and the seeing late season snow events in the elevations is fairly common. I remember gazing out the lunch room window I think in May 1967, at a mix of wet snow while taking my SAT's (or was it ACT's) in Newton NJ (elevation below 600 feet). Our Monson MA member and I remember a big May snow storm in the interior of southern New England on Mothers Day May 8, 1977. Branches snapping from heavy wet snow and sounding like gunfire in the middle of the night. So, let's not call it the new normal but be aware snow could happen in parts of our elevated areas as outlined above, sometime the next two weeks.

Edit: 348P edit to the morning post. Didn't check ens trends but will in a couple of days but 12z/7 EC OP doing it again in this EXTENDED period next weekend (17-18ish) elevated snow acc. We'll see if it sticks around long enough (5 more days) for a thread, or disappears like that of this coming weekend. Have a night. Back tomorrow or Fri.

So, it definitely gets pretty wet here this weekend (especially later Sat-early Mon) and as WPC now has, general 1", and can see more in spots. No snow. Wind gusts 40kt not completely out for Sunday-Monday morning LI, but probably just a typical wet April event. Elevation snow: no go. Fri 16th-Tue 20th: Still a Canadian block and now a +PNA... could get more interesting. Ensembles, as usual, but climatologically less favorable, have minor elevation snowfall nw edge of the forum. Can see another decent qpf event, depends if we get a low just to our south, which is possible in this developing pattern, or maybe it will be just be a wet cold front with primary vort-low across upper NYS? To be determined (TBD). Back in a couple of days. Edit: 348P. Didn't check ens trends but will in a couple of days but 12z/7 EC OP doing it again in this EXTENDED period next weekend. elevated snow acc. We'll see if it sticks around long enough (5 more days) for a thread, or disappears like that of this coming weekend. Have a night. Back tomorrow or Fri.

Continued no thread on my part. I haven't examined closely enough, tho it appears the snow threat for higher elevations this weekend has diminished? However, not giving it up yet. It does appears NJ westward is in line for 1"+ qpf by 2A Monday. Will have to monitor for wind increase but right now, nor'easter wind not a problem for this weekend. ICON/NAVGEM not supportive for bountiful qpf, so that's a consideration. I like EPS/GEFS trends since posting on Sunday for QPF. WPC has been up and down and still looks down to me but a little better. The mid April elevation snow chance is still in the ensembles but almost negligible so I guess we're in for cooler wetter weather periods from the 9th-20th. In a way, I like it.. more typical April stuff and I don't want to be begging for rain come June. Just good to ante up the water tables a bit. Back in a day or 2.

No thread on my part but three more opportunities for snow lurk in our subforum. later tonight ne PA/nw NJ, probably no big deal tho 1/2" possible higher terrain ne PA. Then the 9th-11th (next Fri-Sun), Potential for a pretty big long duration periodic rain event (1"+) with wind (40kt) for a part of the sub forum coast with high terrain wet snow possible. Ensembles don't favor snow, certainly nothing like the 00z/3 EC snow depth forecast (just nw NYC). There's even something during mid month? Keeping an eye on it. Figure future modeling will shrink the snow, not sure the sizable storm will disappear in what appears to me to be a favorable blocking pattern for a slow mover somewhere along the Mid Atlantic Coast.

Just added some svr/wind graphics for yesterday-today.

Thanks for all! Added the LSR's for SVR- see axis Mid-Atlantic to w LI, and the wind advisory LSR reports vicinity I90 northward (NYS-MA) and then the OKX graphic of max wind gusts today. That should be the wrap on this short fused topic. Not doing anything on snow for 4/1-2, unless there is a marked change eastward toward NYC (beyond the NAM). Probably good to continue snow conversation in the April topic.

Max gust so far, 45MPH at this Wantage location at 118AM. Total rainfall yesterday=Sunday the 28th 1.00".

Very little lightning but convective for sure. At times, am in awe of the modeling. Sig Tor Parm and Supercell Composite predictors this morning from there HRRR/NAM 3k and still this afternoon, kept focusing a pocket of notable values up I95 from BWI toward Monmouth. Looks to me like widespread 30-35kt N of I78 in NJ and 40-45 kt s of I78, with the iso 50-60kt as others have added + LSR's. Offline... have a night.

Well at least warnings up to about NYC and the NJ coast. We'll see what kind of damage occurs, probably spotty,. Have to like like looking at those predictors mentioned this morning. Imperfect but helpful.

Multiple reports PHL airports 42-43kt. TTN only 35 so far.

52 KT KILG...biggest 60 MPH winds may be n MD across s NJ but was may allow damage further N per warnings into the I78 region? Thanks for keeping up with this. May be offline shortly.

Noting wind G 40kt near or just after of the sql now se PA southward. NAM BL wind supposed to be near 33kt PHL around 00z. Think it's lookingn up for a few wind gusts 40-45kt southern part of the forum in NJ near and just after the line passage.

Watch posted for the southernmost part of the forum. Minor wind damage so far e PA in sql vcnty CXY.

HRRR and 3KNAM offer a squall line of sorts in the warm sector 6P-10P, accentuating NJ s of I78 where the Significant Tornado parameter and Supercell composite indices are notably large. This is on the tail end of of 75kt 850 sw jet over LI, just ahead of a cold front with marginal CAPE. (That 850 jet initially causes the midday deluge's in parts of our area with possible flood advisory for poor drainage flooded roads). Should not be much hail, if any. Max Updraft helicity 2-5KM has some swaths across much of the region. Not saying it will happen but should at least have gusts near 40 kt with the line as per HRRR/EC gust algorithms. HRRR prior to 09z/28 has isolated G50-60KT. R# looks more permissive than for this past Fridays wind advisory event . I think most of any severe should be NJ shore but could extend east. Even a small chance of G40-45KT in the strong southerlies for LI, well ahead of the squall line., NWS OKX has a wind advisory posted for the OKX forecast area later this evening-Monday. That should verify with scattered G40kt, especially 3AM-Noon Monday, associated with the cold core arriving (CAA) and pressure rises.

NYC airport, JFK, LGA, EWR all in the range of 45-51kt the past 90 minutes. Added this from 257PM. Strongest winds were west of Apps but imo, the NAM HRRR sounding was maybe grabbing 5 kt too much. Multiple other models were more conservative including applying the Richardson # to the 3KNAM which hesitated to get more than 900MB. Not an A thread for sure, but its'still cranking til maybe 9 or 10P.

EC tucked in west fringe of our area, GFS so far, further east but inconsistent. GGEM mostly won our area. EPS is heavier into the subforum but that could be because of the aberrant 12z/26 EC which has 2ft+ up in the Adirondacks. We are going into a strong-NAO. Late season. Can it develop far enough south to be a factor in the NYC subforum?

Figured we better start April, the way the GFS/GEFS is barking an April Fools snow joke on parts of the interior northeast. Will it happen? Can change the tags to more appropriate prompts if you wish.