wdrag

Lot's of words follow, for the modeled proposed wintry mix solution early next week. So, the door continues open for a small wintry weather event, snow-ice to rain with very low confidence for any snow accumulation - NJ coast-NYC. Modeling continues vacillating but it appears to me it's gathering a bit of a trend for a well defined warm frontal wave e of Cape May/s of LI. (not so the 00z/9 GGEM,). It's a WAA situation over the remaining cold influx of this weekend. The weakening short wave out of the Midwest, is delayed a day so will remove (early) on the 16th from the title and drop the 14th. Whatever might have occurred the 14th might still occur, but more so late Saturday the 13th but that is a very low chance and negligible. Otherwise, ensembles are less than 2" on snow acc. Operationally the 00z/9 GFSv15-16 continue with minor ice/snow interior, while the 00z/9 EC... probably can't hold it's operational 00z/9 offering in subsequent cycles, but the EC just tells me, that that heavier single member option is still on table, as proposed a couple of days ago by multiple GFS cycles. In short: there is still a chance for snow-ice, but this is probably just your typical probably only minor event, destined mainly for the interior. This barring a reinvigoration and deepening eastward moving short wave out of the Midwest as the following short wave hurls the ridge northward behind it. Right now, 06z/9 WPC has spotty 10% chance of .25" frozen w.e. precip in the nw part of our subforum. Another way to look at this, it's a 90% chance of non-occurrence.

607A/8 Update: Closed low departure into midwest seems a little slower, so overall arrival may be delayed til late 15? Still looks favorable for a period of wintry qpf event anywhere in our subforum, with possibly something near the reinforcing CAA short wave Sunday, and then most likely the large scale event late Monday 15-early Tuesday 16. Think it's best to smooth out all the modeling lows and highs and see if this potential is still valid come this Wednesday morning (00/10 cycle). All ensembles (EPS/GEFS/GEPS) continue to give us some wintry qpf but just light nuisance amounts. Will revisit this on Tuesday.

Always subject to adjustment. So far, theme is okay, tho EC continues well south., and GGEM were north. Just need to ride it all out and see if the basic theme still holds water 3 days from now.

626A/16: Not much. 00z/16 EC op and 06z/gfs v16 (para) are best chance of a little snow this afternoon-night, mainly n of I80. Doubt if NYC/LI can do more than T of snow-sleet if those elements occur. nw NJ might see spotty freezing rain showers tonight. Thread now converted to OBS-NOWCAST if and as needed. --- 543A/15: Below is my mental mesh of modeling (lower than usual confidence) on what happens late Tuesday-early Wednesday. I78-I84 corridors-periods of light snow, sleet or freezing rain likely begin Tuesday afternoon or evening and ends as rain Wednesday morning. Modeling uncertain-so my confidence on how much ice/snow is less than usual. There is a pretty good chance of at least spotty icing in PA/NJ that may require treatments. If it's snow, just a slightest covering to maybe an inch or 2 but can't promise all snow except CT/MA. I can see the need for some caution traveling untreated surfaces Tuesday night-early Wednesday. One model group: The GFS v15/16 have been hitting the snow harder along w the GEFS, for se NYS/extreme nw NJ/extreme ne PA with potential for 4" high terrain, if no ice. One of my concerns is ice in ne PA/nw NJ. For NYC-LI: Even with snow snow or sleet in the air, NYC may not measure anything more than T if it's light. If it manages the 00z/15 GFS scenarios, then yes, minor amount there. Better chance spotty minor amounts LI (under 1"). Follow the models. I'd like to see models, other than the GFS, become more robust. For now, the GFS solutions are outlier heavier outcomes. I don't know what to believe but the uncertainty on qpf volume, as well as thermal profiles suggest conservative expectations. --- 707A/14: Looked back on the original post of the 7th... seems like we may be onto something, but considerable model uncertainty, which tells me nothing big and impact minor, as always intended, but at least, I think, targeting the NYC subforum with a wintry event. In checking back the snow snow shower threat for the 14th was introduced on the 9th. Wind driven dustings of flurries I84 corridor with maybe a spotty half inch or so? (far N CT & Pocs). Wind gusts midday-this afternoon similar to those of early Saturday, maybe a touch higher with isolated power outages---generally 40-50 MPH. (I missed forecasting the gusts of early Friday where we in Wantage had 43MPH-320A). No OBS thread anticipated since trees not leaved. Can post obs in March 2021, unless you wish an obs thread for the midday-afternoon wind. Just let me know. Tuesday evening-Noon Wednesday: I78 northward to I84 (Tuesday night-Wednesday morning). Looks like (not guaranteed) a period of snow and possibly ice. If snow, generally an inch or less (spotty 2" possible high terrain?). iI ice, it would be minor but hazardous for untreated surfaces during the Tuesday night hours. For NYC-LI: same old uncertainty. EC for at least 3 cycles continues to insist on light snow with potential for a few tenths? I don't know. I am aware the the EC overall was always driest well in advance and also much slower to arrive (apparently handling the Rockies closed low much better than the GEFS/GEPS). Now am seeing some "possible" minor intensification of the short wave crossing our area early Wednesday. Anyway, road impacts should be negeligible except high terrain untreated's at night. ---- 554A/13: Maybe WY/CO utilized too much of the energy, so despite the short wave crossing our forum directly ~ Tuesday night, this thread will probably have been a waste of time. Modeling has dried up. Multiple 00z/13 ens and few models give us spotty light snow (or ice) Tuesday or Tuesday night but can't see this being a hazard now. In case it does the long odds minor snow measure in NYC, this might be the last decent chance of measurable snow in the city, associated with a -NAO? So, while the door seems to have closed, still worth a look once a while. In the meantime, a few flurries (unstable lapse rates as cold dry aloft sweeps south through New England) seem possible in much of the forum Sunday (14th), with scattered dustings in ne PA, CT, se NYS. --- 648A/12: Whittled down the days from 14-16 to just 16th. Lots of words and uncertainty for a potential modest wintry event. This should be a bit simpler by now. 00z-06z/12 GFS series is the only primary operational model holding onto a wintry event while most other operational models have dried up. That modeling disparity is not a good sign for an event as we draw closer to whatever transpires. I do have some doubts about how this works out. By 430PM (2130z/12) this afternoon, you'll have a pretty good idea via the 84 hour NAM whether the GFS is out to lunch by checking the leading edge of whatever the NAM has against the predictions of the GFS. For now, I think the 12z/12 84 hr NAM has to have leading edge close to CLE-PIT, and the 18z cycle something to BWI-AOO at 84 hours, and the RGEM has to pick it up as well. If not, then prospects for the GFS solutions are probably evaporating and this c(w)ould be a wasted thread-busted expectation. Of course the 12z/12 volatile EC will be available. It's possible the dry air associated with cold surge Sunday-Monday will evaporate the oncoming warm front- vort max associated wintry precip, as the decaying Midwest short wave shoots into the confluence zone here in the northeast. GEFS and even the EPS have a nice RRQ of the upper level jet pulling for us, with weak 850 WAA but lack a little punch on the LFQ of the upper level jet near 35N latitude. 00z/12 GEPS and 00z-06z GEFS continue with modest qpf and relatively cold, so that 2-8 hours of snow-sleet is modeled coming for most of the NYC subforum Tuesday, including NYC-LI with a base snowfall near 1" (potential 4-5" highest elevations of I84 but that is completely qpf dependent). It should begin ~6A western NJ/se NYS, maybe 8A-Noon NYC/CT. It would then end as rain LI-NJ Tuesday night-early Wednesday along and s of I80 but possibly as freezing rain I84 corridor. Again, my assessment is predicated on ensembles of GEFS/GEPS. It's not big but it appears to me to be the best wintry option for NYC the next week or so. The back-back (18-19 second event) is even more uncertain with respect to wintery elements and if there are back-back snow-ice events, I think best chance I84 corridor, which does not guide me to a thread, since 18-19 currently doesn't have big snow prospects for NYC metro. 604A/11: will post additional impressions around 745A. Running a little late. As I see it... game on... if these models can finally hold serve as intended when the thread started. Even NYC might see a bit of snow. IF, in the future, all this fritters to minuscule under 1" amounts of snow and only n and w of NYC, then this thread will hold for OBS/NOWCAST. That's me thinking downside. As of now, 00z/11 UK/EC ops trying for a hazardous snow event n of I80 (hills best for road acc at this mid March sun angle). I just haven't caught up yet with ensembles etc. At least now, the models are agreeing on an event of sorts directly NYC subforum, with a period of extensive ice/snow potential interior NC- New England, mainly nw of I95. 604A/11 Appended at 755A, with the GEFS ensemble maps later in the thread. Monday - Wednesday (15-early 17): Snow-ice probably ending as rain for a large chunk of the northeast USA. Snow develops sometime Tuesday and ends by sunrise Wednesday either as ice or rain. Too early to lock in snowfall but my guess: I84 anywhere from 1" minimum to a low chance of a much as 7" for a few high terrain locations. Models still uncertain on developments but something wintry is coming. EPS is the only ensemble less than 1/4" w.e. qpf now, and this was followed by WPC on the their overnight shift which has basically nothing for I84. So uncertainty continues but from my perspective snow to ice is an 80-90% chance of occurrence for the suburbs w-n NYC, in part by the -NAO. NYC, barring BL warming, I see a pretty good chance of snow or sleet to start on the 16th. Please see attached 06z/11 GEFS ensemble 500MB for 18z/Tue-16 and 06z/Wed-17 with confluence to our north and nice short wave heading into the mid Atlantic. I like this look and presuming it holds (still spaghetti uncertainty in the members- tho I don't think south bears the brunt of there snowfall anymore except VA's highest terrain). --- 659A/10 update added here at 746A. 00z-06z/10 modeling continues all over the place. In essence, I've no significant change to this thread. Something wintry is coming. EC looks too slow and both EPS/GEFS 500mb patterns shoot the decaying Midwest short wave across the area later on the 16th. I expect that snow-sleet will overspread from the west, much of the I95 corridor from Baltimore to New Brunswick, then on the 16th while changing to rain south of I78, overspreads the remainder of the forum by late in the day. How long the snow-sleet before a change to rain (except ice se NYS/CT/extreme nw NJ)? This should be the first of two or three foreseeable wintry events opportunities for the subforum though the last two should be mostly I84 corridor (18-19, 22-23). My guess, if NYC is to get some snow, it has to be with this first opportunity (Tuesday the 16th). 00z-06z/10 ensembles used to modify the op cycles which would say, forget it for the subforum on the 15th-16th. This could be my mistake. I tend to use ensemble patterns in the longer range and focus on the ops inside of 4 days. 659A/10 --- 251-3P/9: Graphics added on with the originating post at the end of this page. Multiple 12z/9 ensembles are producing snow and ice for the NYC subforum beginning with possible scattered southeast moving cold shot snow shower dustings late Saturday or Sunday, and then a widespread light-possibly moderate wintry event 15-16. This one may even try to bridge back to another oncoming wintry event late 18-19, though with a 24 hour break later 17-18. Staying with the 15th-16th: Whether this wintry system goes the route of the most depressed GEFS, or the closer to LI, EPS and GGEM/GEPS? Something wintry continues to keep coming and while the EC had its 1-4" north of I80 on the 00z/9 cycle it now had it south of I80. This will be the first widespread wintry event of the second half of March, and as Bluewave implied, quite possibly more... this too signaled by the CFS for a few days (multiple NYC subforum snow-rain events). Graphics are the 12z/9 EPS snow (10-1), GEFS snow, GEPS snow depth returning south of I80 with a 00z-3/15 view and a 06z 3/17 view of SD 251P/9 --- 655A/9: Lot's of words follow, for the modeled proposed wintry mix solution early next week. So, the door continues open for a small wintry weather event, snow-ice to rain with very low confidence for any snow accumulation - NJ coast-NYC. Modeling continues vacillating but it appears to me it's gathering a bit of a trend for a well defined warm frontal wave e of Cape May/s of LI. (not so the 00z/9 GGEM,). It's a WAA situation over the remaining cold influx of this weekend. The weakening short wave out of the Midwest, is delayed a day so will remove (early) on the 16th from the title and drop the 14th. Whatever might have occurred the 14th might still occur, but more so late Saturday the 13th but that is a very low chance and negligible. Otherwise, ensembles are less than 2" on snow acc. Operationally the 00z/9 GFSv15-16 continue with minor ice/snow interior, while the 00z/9 EC... probably can't hold it's operational 00z/9 offering in subsequent cycles, but the EC just tells me, that that heavier single member option is still on table, as proposed a couple of days ago by multiple GFS cycles. In short: there is still a chance for snow-ice, but this is probably just your typical probably only minor event, destined mainly for the interior. This barring a reinvigoration and deepening eastward moving short wave out of the Midwest as the following short wave hurls the ridge northward behind it. Right now, 06z/9 WPC has spotty 10% chance of .25" frozen w.e. precip in the nw part of our subforum. Another way to look at this, it's a 90% chance of non-occurrence. --- 607A/8 Update: Closed low departure into midwest seems a little slower, so overall arrival may be delayed til late 15? Still looks favorable for a period of wintry qpf event anywhere in our subforum, with possibly something near the reinforcing CAA short wave Sunday, and then most likely the large scale event late Monday 15-early Tuesday 16. Think it's best to smooth out all the modeling lows and highs and see if this potential is still valid come this Wednesday morning (00/10 cycle). All ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) continue to give us some wintry qpf but just light nuisance amounts. Will revisit this on Tuesday. --- A wintry event has been on and off for our area the period of the 14th-16th (another to follow ~the 18th?). The 00z/7 EPS is driest of the ensembles but at least operationally it has a chance of flurries or a period of snow. The 00z-06z/7 GFS v15 and 16 both have snow and ice possibilities for our subforum, but primary target-duration-amounts unknown. The GEPS also has a decent qpf event coming but it's snow depth change is not enthusiastic about snow. The primary teleconnection indices are not favorable so I cannot be confident of snow NYC-LI but I do think we will see a ~1/4" of freezing-frozen precip into at least a portion of the NYC subforum by Tuesday morning the 16th. (that could be snow-ice combo or just 3" of snow). The primary event is centered on Monday the 15th. Typical late season caveats apply including light precip during the daylight hours (spring forward 1 hour on Sunday 14th to EDT) being almost useless for road impacts except wet road slow downs. Alot of this will depend on strength of the high over Quebec and how cold the boundary layer. This is basically a D8 outlook: So I dont want to encourage diving deep into snow dreams but something wintry is coming. Whether it's only I84 high terrain or more encompassing is tbd. This will probably garner some attention in the coming days. One graphic to demonstrate the emerging low in the Midwest 12z/14 with the confluence zone. (649A/7)

Good Sunday morning, March 7, I84 corridor! While a springlike taste of warmth is coming Tue-Fri of this week, am confident enough to begin a subforum thread by 7AM, for the first snow-ice event (14th-15th), of the second half of March. Monday night: a short period of probably insignificant spotty sleet-flurries-freezing rain sprinkles. Sunday the 14th-early Tuesday the 16th I84-Adirondacks-Baltimore: The first widespread wintry event of the last half of March. Some snow or ice is likely, possibly changing to rain, for a large chunk of the northeast USA. Whether it affects the region south of I78 (Baltimore-Philly) with any hazardous wintry elements is in doubt. Details TBD as we approach mid March.

Yes. Think more flurries than forecasters expected. MPING loaded. I am starting to like the navgem areal coverage for events, more and more. It had this beating, yesterday. I think someone else on the forum is a proponent of the navgem. This flurry situation continues into late tonight

538A/6. Good morning. No threads from me on any upcoming snow for at least another day or more. Right now, any promising discussion of snow from myself, after ~ the 13th onward needs ro be reserved for the nw suburbs thread. Have no confidence on when. 00Z/6 modeling differs, with the EC-EPS overall colder than the GFS-GEFS. Yet, both ensemble systems bring snow acc of 2" or more to LI by the 20th. Part of that may be climo. So, my guess, some sort of unknown amount of snowfall is probably coming to LI in mid -late March, but when??

Wantage NJ -~ 8s High Point in the nw tip. Had 0.1" overnight. 60.3 for the season. Still snow packed up here. 421A/6

So I took another look and for now refraining on a topic start for the 14th-19th. However, may get this going at 7P tonight or early Saturday. So far GFS OP: 06z/4,18z/4, 00/5 and 06z/5 have snow accumulation NYC forum, especially just inland from I95. The new upgrade on the 17th, referred to as the GFSv16 only has the 18z/4 with snow. Other modeling is hinting. Still no NAEFS beyond the 14th, tho am communicating with ENV Canada on this. Hoping this gets resolved late today. In the meantime... GEFS/EPS are showing, as i interpret the data, a more than climo increase in snowfall, I80 northward in the northern USA ~the 14th-onward. Overall pattern suggests troughing gradually moving to the nations mid section or eastern US and keeping it a bit warmer than normal se USA coast. That gets Ohio Valley QPF faucet going. Not yet comfortable adding a snow-ice-rain-wind event thread for the 14th-19th - heading that way but I'd like to see a little more indication that this will not be a useless non hazard event. A lot can wrong., especially with the indices marginal. If anything at this early stage (9days in advance) we'll get another test of reliability regarding our soon to be implemented GFSv16 vs the old GFS.

I'll take a look at the 14th a little more closely Friday morning. So far 06z/4 and the 18z/4 GFS and 18z/4 GFSv16 have snow accumulation NYC forum. NAEFS has not been working past the 14th but will recheck all other ensembles tomorrow morning (00z/5) and see if there is anything wintry meaningful for NYC-LI. It would be a 9 day in advance thread... very uncomfortable with those, 'thread the needle' storms without a big cold in advance over QUE and a well defined closed low coming up the coast. Also, less than favorable indices, implying lots can goi awry. It deserves another look tomorrow.

Good Thursday morning! 00z/4 ensemble agree that the quiet weather pattern of early March becomes more active mid month onward along with increasing chances of mixed wintry precipitation in the NYC subforum, especially I84. Both ensembles, either via climo or the general reduction of positive temperature anomalies after the 12th, allows for increasing snow cover I80 northward (northern USA). So, for me, hope continues, but whether it allows for another snow event for the primary NYC membership, tbd? I am confident that the I84 segment of our membership will have ice and snow events redeveloping mid month. Just too early to shut down winter. Meanwhile the SD continues to erode northward, despite colder temps the next few days. Should be good for garden cleanup around the 9th-10th when as noted by many prior to this post, the first 60F develops, away from the colder Atlantic SST influence. -- Yes, saw the 06z GFSv15 snowstorm for LI-I80, but not threading... 240 hours away and the near future implementation of the GFS v16 doesn't have it. Hopefully one of these between the 14th of March and April 5 can produce for NYC? Added these last 2 lines at 553/4.

That is valuable - very good!

A few, but can't count on my starting threads, if I'm working PT. I'll definitely add my snowfall reports.

My final on this: Wind event overnight 3/1-2/21 OKX PNS attached. Generally 45-55 MPH with some power outages (per state assessment=minor). Thread was too cold, but aware of it in the 20th-21st etc initial updates. An event occurred but in the end, no hazards (wintry/flooding) except a wind event. Noted GFS op robustness by the 24th update. Per off the record conversation w NCEP. V16 was clearly advantageous last year in parallel w the GFS op (V15), less so, so far this year. Myperception as well, only looking at the northeast USA. Probably an overall improvement upon the current V15 op, at least snow vs rain. No check on temps etc. 000 NOUS41 KOKX 021603 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-030403- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 1103 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport 49 MPH 0234 AM 03/02 CWOP Bridgeport Airport 47 MPH 0952 AM 03/02 ASOS Norwalk 45 MPH 1010 AM 03/02 CWOP Fairfield 42 MPH 0246 AM 03/02 CWOP Danbury Airport 41 MPH 1253 AM 03/02 ASOS ...Middlesex County... Chester Airport 46 MPH 0415 AM 03/02 AWOS ...New Haven County... New Haven 56 MPH 0350 AM 03/02 CWOP Meriden Airport 49 MPH 0553 AM 03/02 ASOS Lighthouse Point 49 MPH 0139 AM 03/02 WXFLOW New Haven Airport 47 MPH 0953 PM 03/01 ASOS Waterbury Airport 44 MPH 1051 PM 03/01 AWOS East Haven 41 MPH 0553 AM 03/02 CWOP Hammonasset 41 MPH 1259 AM 03/02 WXFLOW ...New London County... Groton Airport 55 MPH 0956 AM 03/02 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Montvale 45 MPH 0745 PM 03/01 Trained Spotter Teterboro Airport 43 MPH 0951 PM 03/01 ASOS ...Essex County... Caldwell 46 MPH 1053 PM 03/01 ASOS ...Hudson County... Bayonne 44 MPH 1150 PM 03/01 WXFLOW ...Passaic County... Ringwood 41 MPH 0910 AM 03/02 RAWS ...Union County... 2 NE Roselle 62 MPH 0840 PM 03/01 Trained Spotter Newark Airport 49 MPH 0851 PM 03/01 ASOS Linden Airport 40 MPH 1155 PM 03/01 AWOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... Fordham 46 MPH 0950 PM 03/01 NYSM ...Kings County... Brooklyn College 54 MPH 0110 AM 03/02 NYSM 1 N Coney Island 50 MPH 0459 AM 03/02 Trained Spotter Manhattan Beach 41 MPH 0149 AM 03/02 CWOP ...Nassau County... Bayville 70 MPH 1118 PM 03/01 WXFLOW Bayville 58 MPH 0830 PM 03/01 Mesonet Wantagh 47 MPH 1000 PM 03/01 NYSM Merrick 44 MPH 1116 PM 03/01 CWOP Syosset 41 MPH 1205 AM 03/02 CWOP ...New York County... Midtown Manhattan 49 MPH 1215 AM 03/02 NYSM ...Orange County... Stewart Airport 49 MPH 0145 AM 03/02 AWOS Warwick 48 MPH 1100 PM 03/01 NYSM Montgomery Airport 45 MPH 0854 PM 03/01 AWOS Newburgh 44 MPH 0936 PM 03/01 CWOP Otisville 40 MPH 0850 AM 03/02 NYSM US Military Academy 40 MPH 0255 AM 03/02 RAWS Vails Gate 40 MPH 1243 AM 03/02 CWOP ...Putnam County... Brewster 42 MPH 1210 AM 03/02 NYSM ...Queens County... NYC/La Guardia 49 MPH 1051 PM 03/01 ASOS NYC/JFK Airport 48 MPH 0351 AM 03/02 ASOS Kew Garden Hills 48 MPH 1050 PM 03/01 NYSM Jackson Heights 45 MPH 0153 AM 03/02 CWOP Breezy Point 43 MPH 0443 AM 03/02 WXFLOW ...Richmond County... 2 SE Elizabeth 48 MPH 1130 PM 03/01 NDBC College of Staten Island 44 MPH 0845 PM 03/01 NYSM ...Rockland County... Suffern 44 MPH 0215 AM 03/02 NYSM ...Suffolk County... Eatons Neck 74 MPH 0234 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Stony Brook 69 MPH 0235 AM 03/02 CWOP Baiting Hollow 67 MPH 0133 AM 03/02 CWOP Great Gull Island 61 MPH 0758 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Southold 60 MPH 0345 AM 03/02 CWOP Bay Shore 55 MPH 0100 AM 03/02 Public Islip Airport 53 MPH 0556 AM 03/02 ASOS Southold 53 MPH 1220 AM 03/02 NYSM Napeague 52 MPH 0324 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Westhampton Airport 51 MPH 1153 PM 03/01 ASOS Blue Point 48 MPH 0607 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Fishers Island Airport 48 MPH 0548 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Mecox Bay 48 MPH 1210 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Orient 48 MPH 1111 PM 03/01 CWOP Shirley Airport 47 MPH 0156 AM 03/02 ASOS East Hampton 47 MPH 1235 AM 03/02 AWOS Stony Brook 45 MPH 0335 AM 03/02 NYSM Fire Island CG 45 MPH 0146 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Great South Bay 45 MPH 1221 AM 03/02 WXFLOW East Northport 42 MPH 0326 AM 03/02 CWOP Melville 42 MPH 1140 PM 03/01 CWOP Mattituck 41 MPH 0143 AM 03/02 CWOP N. Babylon 41 MPH 0910 PM 03/01 CWOP ...Westchester County... White Plains Airport 52 MPH 0256 AM 03/02 ASOS Croton 51 MPH 0243 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Tappan Zee Light 14 47 MPH 0148 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Peekskill 41 MPH 1224 AM 03/02 CWOP Armonk 40 MPH 0129 AM 03/02 CWOP ...Connecticut... ...Maritime Stations... Stongington Outer Breakwater 64 MPH 0500 AM 03/02 WXFLOW 2 S Groton 57 MPH 0925 AM 03/02 NDBC 1 ESE Norwalk 52 MPH 1113 PM 03/01 WXFLOW 2 SSE New Haven 52 MPH 0600 AM 03/02 NOS-PORTS USCG Academy 51 MPH 1002 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Quaker Hill 43 MPH 1234 AM 03/02 CWOP ...New York... 19 SSE East Hampton 56 MPH 0200 AM 03/02 NDBC 26 SSE Robert Moses State Pa 54 MPH 0400 AM 03/02 NDBC Robbins Reef, NJ 54 MPH 1100 PM 03/01 NOS-PORTS Shinnecock 54 MPH 0219 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Larchmont Harbor 53 MPH 1146 PM 03/01 WXFLOW 15 S Atlantic Beach 51 MPH 0510 AM 03/02 NDBC 2 N Orient 51 MPH 0715 AM 03/02 Trained Spotter Point O Woods YC 50 MPH 0205 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Fire Island CG 50 MPH 0146 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Montauk Airport 49 MPH 0754 AM 03/02 ASOS Kings Point 46 MPH 0130 AM 03/02 NOS-NWLON City Island 45 MPH 0947 PM 03/01 CWOP &&

PT is not weather related> I work for Sussex County NJ as a part time engineering aide, as long as they'll have me. Guardrail, (now called Guide Rail), and bridge inspections, sometimes a bit of surveying. Have a tablet, walk the roads and bridges and do as asked-taught, much of it on my own. Fortunate to have a PT job like this. I like the outdoors and get's me more familiar with the county i grew up in.

Modeling hope- unrealistic on my part? Taking into account prior page posts by Bluewave and Don; and to this 00z/3 outlooked unfavorable AO/NAO/EPO/PNA, here goes. Suppose it will have to be thread the needle? 500 MB trough is ensembled to return to the central USA by mid month, with a reactivating storm track out of the southern Plains-Ohio Valley. Modeling is trying to juice up the Tenneseee Valley again for a potentially active period March 14-~ April 5. This I think is in keeping with some long ranging impressions (not mine) of an active severe weather season this spring. CFS constantly has been offering snow/ice hopes down here in our forum from mid month onward for a number of cycles, implying high pressure to our north and a storm track trying to move up to and along I80 with a few cutters thrown in. So in essence, the posts I've read the past page or so, all seem to have the correct possibilities. It's simply too early to end snow season. Whether any of these from the 14th onward, provide NYC with more than a half inch of snow I don't know but I'm confident the I84 corridor has several more opportunities for meaningful snowfall into the first week of April. Climo says temps warm and so if it's daytime light snow, probably lots of it melts. First opportunity (no thread since it could CUT). is ~Sunday the 14th. Confluence between Pacific into southern USA with primary jet near 35-37N and the Canadian stream might give us a chance? Not worthy of a thread, as yet, if ever. One of these that follows might bring membership satisfactory closure for the NYC snow season? Reminder: this is said against the backdrop of unfavorable teleconnection indices. MJO... I don't know what role it will play.

Once in a while... i enjoy, but takes lots of time to do justice.

Modeling is trying but you know how that goes... 1 member out of the coming 3000+ leading up the 17th. Hope folks can refrain from a thread til ensemble support, or multiple days GFS/GGEM/EC. I know folks are for want of more snow but it's been a pretty decent winter, especially with expectations generally for a less than stellar winter. To hold off the first 2021, 60 or 70 degree temp til ~the 9th-10th. That's why we have a nice snow cover for the animals to walk and roll on today. Pretty cool and am mentally prepared to see it go. Which brings me to the future of my own thread initiations on the forum. After March 14, probably very-very limited to hazardous winter only - if that, or maybe a flooding rain threat in summer, but potentially nil. Certainly no severe's as last summer (had too many svr threads anyway). The plan is for me to get back to some part time work March 15. Enjoyment of family-activities, property landscaping, late summer travel will preclude me from initiating threads. Just too much for me to maintain a close eye upon ea thread, as well as wrap-ups.I feel obligated once Initiated, that I need to stay on top of them (helps keep me more conservative). Just can't do that once am back working. So... have had plenty of top contributions in the forum that have helped me look at new approaches and for the most part, the long lead threads have been of value. After March 14, probably hands off for me. Been fun to be a witness to the utility of large scale modeling predictability. We're sooooo far ahead of where we were, even a decade or two ago.

I agree. Have looked and looked and thru the 14th, think there is little to pique my interest. I'm turning to the long rangers hereon, for a look at MJO and potential 15th onward? It seems the jet is depressed a bit after the 13th, and whiles AO and NAO are positive, timing could be everything as as the mid south gets wet again. I haven't quite given up on Sunday (late?) rom the northwest flow, (light event) but for now, no modeling support, so it's best to move on, I think.

Reviewing the original thread starter narrative below. Ended up further north, no advisory but a bit of snow just inside of I95. At least we knew something was coming that had qpf, and small snow for our forum. I look at this as worthy. Better than nothing occurring and of value to some of our members and model detection 7 days in advance, again. ll the data is here for review. 301P/20: While 12z/20 GEFS guidance was delayed for full review (and therefore NAEFS), there is potential for a light or even moderate fast moving (east or east northeast) precip event. Depends in part whether the primary low crosses the St Lawrence Valley, or whether the front sags south of the forum with a wave of low pressure scooting eastward on it, as a fairly strong wave heads east from the Great Lakes. Ensembles at this writing are not favorable for much of an event but individual models for the past 2 days have proposed an advisory snow either in our forum, or south of us, across the Virginias/Delmarva. The latest 18z/20 WPC guidance basically has no qpf in our forum for this event, so it could easily be a bust. I think some wintry precip will happen here, but could be 100% wrong. Let's leave the door open for a couple of days and see if this can target a portion of our area with an inch or more of snow. If snow does occur but only I84 corridor, then there won't be an obs thread (fewer members). TBD. .

Adding the 2 day qpf. Snowfall via Co-CoRAHS was Trace. Will add LSR reports late today. Rainfall for this 2 day period ended up 1/4-1/2" North and 0.5- 0.9" south.

Unless I misunderstood the above: the operational GFS had this, but no other model 06z 2/23 cycle. Have attached the image. It didn't end up quite as far south as the GFS (~504 1000-500 thickness), but certainly the OP was on it. Soon after the GEFS cycles. Here is from the 2/28-3/1 thread on Wed morning 2/24 -00z/24 cycle, which the GFS pegged for it's most intense phase in our area 06z/2. I didn't want to believe it. What this does, is tell me that the V16 upgrade would not have caught this so early (late to the table). A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night (but not the GFS op ferocity which doesn't have much support). - written 2/24A ~655A So while it seems the GFS v16 will be an improvement on the current GFSv156 op, I know it won't always be better and I don't know to how much of an improvement the V16 will be. ALSO, outliers in long range, sometimes become the closest to reality at whatever future lead time. Most of the time outliers are caste away as no good, only sometimes turning out to be the best predictor. Not easy to know that the outliers are truly not of value.

I think today and generally this week through the 7th is why I'm not much a fan of the EPO as a predictor of the ps here in the northeast. Probably great for stable patterns but even that, I'm unsure. Certainly doesn't look too good for this week inclusive of today as predictor? Counter comments welcome.

Bunch of power outages late yesterday and overnight from wind gusts 45-55MPH in parts of the area. I think the strongest winds have occurred or will havre occurred by 10AM. HRRR has slow diminishment thereafter.

First wind gusts I've seen 40kt or greater nearby to our northwest, in the previous hour ending around 4PM. KALB: Albany, Albany Intl Arpt, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KBFD: Bradford, Bradford Regional Airport, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KELZ: Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPSF: Pittsfield, Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KSWF: Newburgh / Stewart, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]