wdrag

Not to distract from current nice warmth, considering a thread issuance 6A Thursday for sct Fri aft/eve gusts 40-48 kt per a number of models. Would like one further check of 00z/29 guidance. More or less typical for our area. Enjoy the warmth.

Thanks for keeping up w this... have had big sprinkles here in Wantage at 815A. Cold influx is soo fast, while it's hailing near NYC at 3P (if it's hailing), it could be snowing in parts of the Poconos including KMPO. HRRR gusts are starting to nudge slightly higher in isolated cells (I think 40KT+, especially NYS-CT). Off to work for me. Have a day.

The 06z/21 SPC guidance attached. I won't be commenting on this thread til possibly 6P. Whether this occurs quite as robustly as SPC has discussed is uncertain in my mind but deserves consideration. Follow SPC/OKX/PHI updates and have a good day.

SPC continues Marginal risk se NYS-NJ. 00z-06z/20 HRRR/NAM/EC have decent development Wednesday afternoon. TT near 53 flag attention for hail and gust transfer looks like 40-45KT. Follow NWS local offices/SPC/and our own members assessments. Have added the SPC discussion plus the EC (just below SPC)/GFS (below EC) fcst sounding for 18z/21 n central NJ as an idea of what seems to be coming via convection for NJ. CAPE is marginal and KI OK. Activity while still fairly strong crossing LI/CT will ingest cooler southerly inflow from the ocean to limit potential hailers/wind gusts? Even so, the wind shift with significant cold air advection during the evening may induce isolated gusts 40 kt on the island? Have a look. This thread should also serve well for any significant reports of whatever convection occurs Wednesday afternoon.

Bluewave among others is on it for Wed... maybe if it looks like hailers are a good bet, will start a thread Tuesday AM for Wed afternoon.

I wish we had room to store images for a year... I also think it valuable to go back and see the images and check threads. However, in order for me to post further images, I need to ensure I am capable and haven't run out of storage. Maybe we need to donate to AMWX to increase the image archive? Best I can do, Walt

More? you want more?? Maybe Wed afternoon a T-1/2", flurries even possible Thursday L Harmony... quite a cold strong short wave, that may spew small hailers out ahead of it in the line Wed afternoon across the NYC forum. A couple more short waves follow with blocking attempts. Wed afternoon is the first chance for minor snowfall in the Pocs/Cats. By the way, .06 so far here today in Wantage this Monday afternoon.

Lake Hsrmony I have 0.32" melted w.e. and 1.0" snow.

A little incomplete recap. I've attached the 2 day rainfall (last image) and the snowfall via CoCoRahs. If they don't report everyday, then it doesn't get added into the two day, or if there are seemingly errors, as may have occurred in ne CT, you see the oddity. You have some of the guidance previously to check against. My guess on the outcome from initial thread 6 days ago (based on ensembles). Move this upper air system about 100 miles west southwest from the Fri evening position and we'd have been in business here. Still QPF 1-2" CT, e 80% of LI down to less than 1/2" most of NJ/ne PA and w of the Hudson in se NYS. Snowfall of about 1/2- 1" Poconos ], 1-3" nw CT (not seen in the two day CoCORAHS because of missing Saturday reports). BOX has a nice report that helps fill in some of the data, inclusive of 50+MPH winds Cape Cod. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=box&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

Lake Harmony about 0.7" at least, Cobb 1/4-1/2" soldi cover. More coming. I see nw CT nice 1-3" so far. iso 6" out of area in ne CT.

snowed and sacculated (try again-accumulated edit 747P) this morning higher terrain Pocs... certainly at 2000 feet exit 8 I84.

Sun in Wantage NJ and 0.28", mainly 2-550P.

The upper air closed low development has probably ended up further east than ensembled a few days ago, resulting in shifting 1+" qpf and snowfall further east. I think it gets a little convective late today-this evening as cooling aloft arrives. NWS probs for 1+inch of snow are low in the I84 corridor so it's possible this modeling is also far too generous for accums: especially the HRRX (top). The SPC HREF might be a little closer and tends to mirror some of the HRRR and EC/EPS while the GEFS has very little in our area. I84 corridor only. Wet snow CT/MA, and maybe a few flakes and slightest covering high terrain POCS, high Point NJ? The storm will develop a bit further east than anticipated a few days ago. Results in greatest potential for accumulative wet snow in northern CT and MA high terrain. Occasionally heavy rain there should change to wet snow overnight and accumulate maybe up to an inch in the valleys and possibly 4+ inches high terrain of northern CT; 'possibly' 6+ inches high terrain west and central MA. Boston may see some wet snow Fri afternoon and night with 'possible' accumulations, especially near route 128. Meanwhile the POCS and nw NJ should see bands of showers this afternoon and evening, then 'possible' spotty minor snow showers Friday with any minor possible accumulations reserved for elevations above 1500 feet. A couple of maps attached that show potential snowfall from this storm. These amounts are probably exaggerated by several inches but you can see the terrain related. I don't think I'll be updating at all today, prior to 9P, if then. Have a day.

553P/12: South of I80 and also all of LI: probably no snow except possibly a short period of wet snow, melting on contact Friday. For the interior suburbs, especially elevations nw to ne of NYC, this could become a problem wet snow impacting power, and for those with heart conditions - safe removal of the water loaded accumulations. Shovels and plows may be of value in the hilly areas Friday morning,. Banding is likely to occur Thursday night-Friday in the northwest sector of the upper low that will enhance precipitation rates in some areas. EPS 850MB easterly inflow as of the 12z/12 cycle was twice that of the GEFS, Therefore, the ensemble snowfall yield from the GEFS is minimal - under 1" while the attached EPS is considerably more. It's too early to be overly confident of 6+" of wet snow, in parts of the extreme nw part of the forum, but certainly possible. IF 6" were to occur at 33F, I'd be thinking of power outages by 9AM Friday. Snow water ratio's may be less than the 10 to 1 used by the ensembles. It should be noted that the WPC Monday outlook for 3+" of snow is only spotty 10% chance in the Catskills. I think this is largely based on the GEFS. Still marginal temps and a breakdown in the 850MB inflow to a weaker GEFS solution would nix the risk of heavier snow. The bulk of any snow should accumulate during Thursday night, lingering into Friday with possibly a second batch of trailer heavier snowfall in the wraparound band Friday evening, especially CT/MA high terrain. As the snowfall rates lessen during midday Friday and afternoon, it could change back to rain. It is an interesting situation and not unheard of. Even last May 9 we had accumulative snow in some of the suburbs, so I don't think of this as a new normal. In summary: Looks interesting for the hilly areas northwest to northeast of NYC. How much and is it worthy of a thread, we'll know in 5 days. I'll be following the NAM/GFS positive snow depth change... that to me becomes the minimum to look for, once it is consistently established from cycle to cycle. And of course, Kuchera and NWS products. Small chance gusty winds 40-45KT e LI Friday?. Meanwhile, LI/CT/se NYS, ne PA should pick up a general melted combined rain/snow of 1-2", iso 3"?

Wantage, NJ 1.05. so far.

I will get a thread started by 715pm. Need to check some guidance. Big amounts possible northwest quad of the closer low in the deformation zone. Banding of a moist unstable lapse rate. Am on the road and won’t have checked anything close til 7p. Want to see the N latch on and then use the positive snow depth change as base amount. If it indeed is 6+ 33F wet snow power outages would occur. Anyway, something to look at

Good Monday morning all, This part of Wantage NJ, 0.88 as of 450A. I see some of the heaviest appears NYC nwwd along the NYS/NJ border with 1+ so far, and plenty more to come with the inverted trough and slowly sewd departing low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast. That rain ending toward 12z Tuesday. Not threading the nor'easter potent elevation snow event for Thu-Fri, til at least this evening. Could yield a period of non accumulating snow all the way to the coast Friday morning but marginal BL temps could leave it all rain except above 1000 feet. GEFS still not responding to the GFS op, so while I like the EC idea, with banding well nw of the Low aloft, prefer to more carefully review after my work day is complete. This could also yield 45 kt wind gusts parts of LI, tho modeling is overall signaling 40 kt max. QPF should be a general 1-3" depending on duration with 3" max probably isolated. You'll know more much sooner than I. Fun to speculate. I like the track of ensembled 500 LOW, hopefully it goes another 30 MI south for our forum but it's not too shabby. Have a good day.

0.63 so far in this part of Wantage NJ. Made the correction to my intended 330PM message (suburban). now checking further...fwiw.. all very minor, but WPC has spotty 10% chance of 3+" of snow in the Catskills by 12z Friday.

What am seeing is increasing EC op wintry look, tho EPS I thought was a little ahead of GEFS on snow acc. If it’s still on the models tomorrow with 4 inches suburban elevations, would thread. Nothing today from myself on this. For auburn to suburban at 452, after returning to better vision at home. aging... glad I got here. don't rush it.

Good morning nw-ne suburbs... this Sunday April 11. At the risk of being embarrassed for a non-occurrence, think it good to post my impression of multiple models heading into elevated wet snows the next two weeks. Where and when? I do think some of our friends at 1000 feet or more will get a chance to witness snow, maybe even accums. Here's what I posted to a small FB gourd of friends this morning after implying a week ago Saturday that there could be some snow in the elevations this weekend. Let's see if anything happens: Good Sunday morning I84! Wheres the elevation snow you ask? Coming. First chance in the Poconos Monday night. Miniscule amounts if any snow occurs at the tail end of what will be 1-2" rain between now and Monday night in ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS. Less rainfall CT/MA for this one. But there's more: Thursday night-Saturday (15-17): Looks like a pretty good chance of a nor'easter that could see rain change to wet snow in the elevations, with accumulations of several inches above 1500 feet (for starters), High Point NJ, Mt Cobb in the Poconos and potentially the same in the hieest elevations above 1000 feet in CT/MA. Is there more? It may not be over after Saturday the 17th. Could be another opportunity later the following week (toward the 24th? Bottom line: It's April in the northeast USA and the seeing late season snow events in the elevations is fairly common. I remember gazing out the lunch room window I think in May 1967, at a mix of wet snow while taking my SAT's (or was it ACT's) in Newton NJ (elevation below 600 feet). Our Monson MA member and I remember a big May snow storm in the interior of southern New England on Mothers Day May 8, 1977. Branches snapping from heavy wet snow and sounding like gunfire in the middle of the night. So, let's not call it the new normal but be aware snow could happen in parts of our elevated areas as outlined above, sometime the next two weeks.

Edit: 348P edit to the morning post. Didn't check ens trends but will in a couple of days but 12z/7 EC OP doing it again in this EXTENDED period next weekend (17-18ish) elevated snow acc. We'll see if it sticks around long enough (5 more days) for a thread, or disappears like that of this coming weekend. Have a night. Back tomorrow or Fri.

So, it definitely gets pretty wet here this weekend (especially later Sat-early Mon) and as WPC now has, general 1", and can see more in spots. No snow. Wind gusts 40kt not completely out for Sunday-Monday morning LI, but probably just a typical wet April event. Elevation snow: no go. Fri 16th-Tue 20th: Still a Canadian block and now a +PNA... could get more interesting. Ensembles, as usual, but climatologically less favorable, have minor elevation snowfall nw edge of the forum. Can see another decent qpf event, depends if we get a low just to our south, which is possible in this developing pattern, or maybe it will be just be a wet cold front with primary vort-low across upper NYS? To be determined (TBD). Back in a couple of days. Edit: 348P. Didn't check ens trends but will in a couple of days but 12z/7 EC OP doing it again in this EXTENDED period next weekend. elevated snow acc. We'll see if it sticks around long enough (5 more days) for a thread, or disappears like that of this coming weekend. Have a night. Back tomorrow or Fri.

Continued no thread on my part. I haven't examined closely enough, tho it appears the snow threat for higher elevations this weekend has diminished? However, not giving it up yet. It does appears NJ westward is in line for 1"+ qpf by 2A Monday. Will have to monitor for wind increase but right now, nor'easter wind not a problem for this weekend. ICON/NAVGEM not supportive for bountiful qpf, so that's a consideration. I like EPS/GEFS trends since posting on Sunday for QPF. WPC has been up and down and still looks down to me but a little better. The mid April elevation snow chance is still in the ensembles but almost negligible so I guess we're in for cooler wetter weather periods from the 9th-20th. In a way, I like it.. more typical April stuff and I don't want to be begging for rain come June. Just good to ante up the water tables a bit. Back in a day or 2.

No thread on my part but three more opportunities for snow lurk in our subforum. later tonight ne PA/nw NJ, probably no big deal tho 1/2" possible higher terrain ne PA. Then the 9th-11th (next Fri-Sun), Potential for a pretty big long duration periodic rain event (1"+) with wind (40kt) for a part of the sub forum coast with high terrain wet snow possible. Ensembles don't favor snow, certainly nothing like the 00z/3 EC snow depth forecast (just nw NYC). There's even something during mid month? Keeping an eye on it. Figure future modeling will shrink the snow, not sure the sizable storm will disappear in what appears to me to be a favorable blocking pattern for a slow mover somewhere along the Mid Atlantic Coast.

Just added some svr/wind graphics for yesterday-today.