wdrag

Saw the no changed ranked 0.4" at CP. Very good. Here's a couple of NWS LSR mapped data.

Doesn't look as promising via 12z/22 modeling but also think modeling is a bit muddled. I still am surprised that high pressure comes in so strong on the 25th. 500MB ensemble field to me suggests it's waiting for a short wave passage on the 26th. Anyway, can't outdo the modeling...just am not understanding it very well. Trend is to a minor event on the 27th and negligible but I need to wait this out another day or so. Will reevaluate Tuesday morning. Jus too early to circular file this thread.

As of general 12z/22 modeling: doesn't look as promising for snow on the 28th, daytime 1st. The night of the 1st or on the 2nd, it's possible I84? There are some changes occurring in the modeling with the southern trough dragging a bit. Will revaluate more fully tomorrow morning. Atmosphere needs to figure out what it wants to do. Definitely not cashing in.

Thats what I think as well... Not what i like to see from a top USA city but also logistics of what has changed in the ASOS era. Mostly good with so many more platforms but available personnel-job priorities have changed the process. Also noting that NWS guidelines may be limiting posting of LSR'sd, in part due to staffing and in part due to multiple job responsible cities. Noting OKX so far not posting any amounts under 1.5 or 2" as of about 2P. Thanks Don!

Wantage NJ - this part. 3.2" 32.0F and 3/4s-. wet good snowrolls.

Have yet to see a CP report with mdt to heavy snow preceding the 18z OB and 33F, as well as a pix of lower Mahattan with wet roads but a snow covered first floor sidewalk cover.

All good... thanks for your update. Walt

Snow reports to the NWS as of ~150P. See nothing for NYC CP. Should have something??

Final?? Maybe you're right but Don's stats and pattern evolution allows for more. Let's enjoy everything that we have.

Wantage NJ (this part at 115PM. 2.4" since SB 1055A. All northern Sussex County Roads in nw NJ, snow or slush covered and slippery. Two spinouts that I saw. Plowing in progress. But beautiful again. Sticking to trees. 30.7F after a high of 33.1 at 11AM. ~1/2sm moderate snow in progress. been mostly small flake. densely packed.

Have seen some of the modeling 5th-9th and it's suggestion of more snow in the I84 corridor. No thread this far in advance. Overall trend the first week of March should be milder than normal, especially 3rd onward.

Started this so we can start looking ahead. Modeling has been pretty good on events 7-10 days in advance, just the ptype and latitude of max amounts had been uncertain. Heading into mud season for the countryside, do we see more piling on of the snow, as statistically suggested by Don's February daily posts. If so, can flooding eventually follow over the interior in the still weak (ening) Nina base state.

628A/22: Despite some dry forecasts, my confidence in another snow event is categorical interior and likely coasts inclusive of LI. Have changed the title to Noon Friday (and extended from 6A Sat to Noon Saturday) and simplified the wording. Most of this should be Friday night-Saturday morning. I expect this to be a hazardous event on all untreated surfaces by sunrise Saturday (interior). Am even a little uneasy on the previous low chance >.25" in the title. For now , I see a 1 to possibly 6" snow event for the forum with highest totals, whatever they are, in the interior high terrain-probably ne PA/extreme nw NJ/se NYS Orange County northward. 00z/22 EC changes to rain everywhere, whereas the GFSV16 is further south and ends briefly as rain midday Saturday. Nice competition between the EC/V6 op runs. GGEM sides with the EC though seems slightly colder than the EC. My initial 20th post concerns for Thursday the 25th, seems to have evaporated due to dominance of high pressure arriving behind the southward proceeding cold front. No graphic since WPC's 04z/22 issuance based on older ensembles/op cycles have no precip. One other note i should add: NAEFS says EC probably has a better handle than the colder model solutions. I'm not buying the NAEFS warmth for the interior, at least not at this time. This will be a big test of the GFSv16, soon to be implemented as a replacement for the GFS op (V15).

Am not posting on this thread anymore as have shifted to the new OBS thread for 2/22-23. Agree w the above that it will be looking wild for an hr or two midday.

Good Tuesday morning all, Expect a period of snow showers in the nw-ne suburbs toward midday. Elsewhere for NYC/LI & s of I-78, rain or possibly rain/mixed snow showers early this afternoon. No accumulation NYC CP eastward and southward, however 0.1-0.7" possible in a few hilly areas well northwest and north of the city. Essentially harmless, with probably no street hazard, other than what one might expect in a rain shower. This is associated with a strong wave passage. mPing should be somewhat active between 10A-4P. No graphics today with the graphics below from 2/22. 528A/23 -- Today (22): Advisories posted just w and n of I-95 for a 5 hour period of occasionally heavy wet snow, while snow NYC and possibly all of the forum coasts during midday changes to rain. Exception southern Ocean County - which may be all rain. Snowfall rates of 1-1.5"/hour anticipated for portions of NJ will quickly make treated roads slippery for a time. Isolated ~5" possible part of NJ near and north of I78 with a general 2-4" accumulation in the advisory area though 4" possibly less likely in NYS/CT. This band may spawn isolated thunder in NJ/LI as it models convective in nature. Expect the first heavy burst within 1 hour of onset, then a slight relax followed by another heavy burst, then on the wane it's last two hours. Begins NJ/ne PA/se NYS 10A-NOON, NYC/CT Noon-1P,. Ends about 5 hours after onset. . Snow in NYC CP possible until 2P where anticipate anywhere from 0.2 to 1.4" there , dependent on temps/how quick it changes. Even a slight coating possible all of the forum coasts. Tuesday: Combined Tuesday in this thread only because it's a top 8 February and many members even out to eastern LI should see some sort of snow showers for an hour or two (may be more accumulation e LI Tuesday than today). Snow showers possibly mixed with rain on LI. Many locations Tuesday should receive 0.1 to as much as 0.5" new snow by ~1PM... the showery occurrence primarily during midday. Attached the 00z/22 HPC HREF, the 06z/22 NAM anticipated base snowfall and the NWS regional deterministic snowfall graphic.

NWS regionalized snowfall forecast as issued in their 4PM products, also the HREF in gradations of 1,2,4 (blue shades, green is 6), and the NWS Blend of Models snowfall by 12z/Saturday. That gives enough snow to pop CP close to#5 by then. My guess is that NYC will get an accumulative of 0.2 to 1.4" midday Monday with possibly a little more Friday night-Saturday morning. Probably the much lighter amount (0.2" Monday) but it's timing with the 18z ob and melting the keys to less than the max of 1.4". My feeling it will snow close to a moderate rate by 1230-45PM in NYC. The answer by this time Monday.

Adding on the other thread in 2 min.

Agreed...you called it a couple days ago. I tend to be more conservative on urban... short term attempt at targeting. some have it south of you, others north of you. Yes on the next two gtrheaded events beyond., Right now the V16 has nothing for 28--early 2 but don't think that will last against ensembled increasingly heavy qpf of snow to rain ending as snow. Keeps the interest going.

All: 18z/21 NAM FOUS suggests a pretty good chance of 0.2 to 1.5" snow event in the 18z/22 ob for NYC CP. We'll see if the increasingly faster NAM and reality are truth. Meanwhile no changes to prior early morning updated thread. With snow in the air excepted into NYC, will begin the OBS thread at about 5AM, Monday. Still a short fuse attempt at targeting best spot for 3- at most 6" in a 5 hour period. Whether or not it falls at 33F, rate so heavy for a short time that will make treated roads mess, probably imo, even to NYC, till melting takes over when rates decrease or it changes to rain. Won't add anything more til early Monday. Have good night.

Imperfect but something will come of this. Maybe its snow to rain but it is a pattern that has been finding ways to snow. That will eventually end but not til at least March 2 (next 3 threaded events omitting the negligible showery rain/snow event early Tuesday afternoon).

Also, this one may be trending the right direction. V16 now has 3"+ much of the area just north of I80 the morning of the 27th. So far , continues ever more interesting. Looking at a big big winter here...certainly FEB has a good chance top 5 or better now by Friday night in CP. One event at a time. Suggest continuing clearing gutters SAFELY!!!! I-84 corridor to near NYC. Roof leaks developing. Subtle but significant in ne PA. Could be happening elsewhere, Just not news compared to everything else going on.

Need to look sooner. V16 is getting the I84corridor in the ballgame now for the 1st-2nd. I am liking the trends... lets see if they hold or slip further south. Maybe March in like a LION?

Wantage of extreme nw NJ: dustings of wind blown snow last evening 5P, overnight? and believe it or not...flurries here the past 15 minutes out of seemingly clear sky. Trace only but it is what it is. Walt 645A/Sunday the 21st.

612A/21: Questions seem to be centered on bullseye convective snowfall of 3" in 3 hours...it's location, and whether NYC can have enough snow fall between Noon and 3PM to cool the temp enough to stick to the snowboard in CP? Modeling differs, and snowmelt during the noon hour could preclude measuring CP but an inch is an option even to BWI/PHL/NYC. Not saying that it will happen in those urban centers, but it's possible and then also capturing the observed snowfall via a report. Meanwhile, I see this as a shorter term advisory issuance for portions of the hilly terrain subforum, primarily e pA/w NJ (maybe se NYS/Litchfield Hills?) to handle the short term rapidly changing road conditions in a 3-5 hour period of snow there with embedded 1"/hr snowfall rate. Heaviest for now targets somewhere from MD into NJ/e PA. That may become a short fuse convective snowfall consideration. Isolated 5" possible somewhere e PA/w NJ? General snowfall amounts se NYS/CT less than w NJ/ePA but still 1 to possibly 3". Will probably begin an obs thread Monday morning at 5A if it still looks like NYC members will see some wet snow to start. (I didn't mention, that a flurry is possible prior to sunrise Monday, but that flurry is not the primary concern). Four graphics added to the top of the of the thread: the 09z/21 NWS deterministic snowfall, the 09z WPC ensemble chance of 1+" of snow Monday, and 4+" and the 00z/21 HPC HREF (high resolution ensemble snowfall).

550A/21: No change to thread (for me). Model variability. By and large looks too warm for more than 1" of snow/sleet NYC-LI-s of I78, if any at all. Modeling does have an option for heavy qpf, snow/sleet/freezing rain to rain, end as snow especially I84 corridor. Not saying that will happen, but I think that option is realistic instead of the all warm-wet Great Lakes inside runner scenario. It's complicated and if necessary in a day or two may need to change the primary end date to March 2, as optioned in the initial thread. Also, for now no flood threat due to snowmelt/qpf, if that warm heavy qpf option comes to pass as the primary reality. That flood threat insert for me, has to wait 3 more days before throwing in the towel on my primary concern for wintry elements. Finally, that closed low option continues (06z/21 V15 ballistic, V16 not). Will monitor successive GEFS 6 hour member cycles as seen on http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html Any questions and I can guide us thru this. Just use your cursor to slide over the hours from L to R and not only monitor the mean, but the spaghetti, which for me is crucial to understanding future model options.