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ELSA ONLY numbers. Public Information Statement Issued by NWS Upton, NY Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 000 NOUS41 KOKX 092016 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-100816- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 416 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 ...ELSA PRECIPITATION TOTALS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Stamford 5.10 in 1050 AM 07/09 AWS Bridgeport Airport 4.09 in 0252 PM 07/09 ASOS Shelton 3.71 in 0255 PM 07/09 AWS Stratford 3.61 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Stamford 3.42 in 1108 AM 07/09 CWOP Greenwich 2.57 in 0301 PM 07/09 CWOP 3 N New Canaan 2.49 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Shelton 2.32 in 0259 PM 07/09 AWS Danbury 2.12 in 0251 PM 07/09 CWOP Fairfield 2.02 in 0700 AM 07/09 COCORAHS Ridgefield 1.90 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Weston 1.90 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Brookfield 1.78 in 0700 AM 07/09 COCORAHS 5.6 NE Danbury 1.73 in 0245 PM 07/09 HADS ...Middlesex County... Middlefield 5.43 in 0259 PM 07/09 AWS 3.3 N Moodus 4.22 in 0215 PM 07/09 HADS Durham 3.71 in 0255 PM 07/09 AWS Clinton 2.76 in 0247 PM 07/09 CWOP Higganum 2.35 in 0800 AM 07/09 COCORAHS Westbrook 2.27 in 0300 PM 07/09 CWOP ...New Haven County... Milford 5.78 in 1201 PM 07/09 CWOP Stony Creek 4.58 in 0258 PM 07/09 CWOP Branford 4.37 in 0255 PM 07/09 CWOP Guilford 4.30 in 0350 PM 07/09 COOP Hamden 4.18 in 0252 PM 07/09 CWOP New Haven 4.06 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS East Haven 3.86 in 0257 PM 07/09 CWOP West Haven 3.70 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Meriden Airport 3.51 in 0253 PM 07/09 ASOS Bethany 3.18 in 0253 PM 07/09 CWOP 1.1 W Wallingford 2.62 in 0200 PM 07/09 HADS Waterbury Airport 2.14 in 0251 PM 07/09 AWOS ...New London County... Norwich 3.32 in 0255 PM 07/09 AWS New London 3.02 in 0255 PM 07/09 CWOP Lyme 2.77 in 0247 PM 07/09 CWOP Groton Airport 2.02 in 0256 PM 07/09 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Tenafly 1.64 in 1056 AM 07/09 CWOP Teterboro Airport 1.61 in 1051 AM 07/09 ASOS New Milford 1.52 in 1105 AM 07/09 AWS Cresskill 1.45 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Little Ferry 1.32 in 1055 AM 07/09 AWS Hackensack 1.17 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Lodi 1.04 in 1045 AM 07/09 IFLOWS Bogota 1.02 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS ...Essex County... Orange Reservoir 2.44 in 1000 AM 07/09 IFLOWS Caldwell 1.92 in 0253 PM 07/09 ASOS West Orange 1.46 in 1105 AM 07/09 URBANET Newark 1.45 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Montclair 1.23 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS 0.6 SW Caldwell 1.08 in 1045 AM 07/09 IFLOWS Fairfield 1.05 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS ...Hudson County... Secaucus 1.82 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS 1 ENE Jersey City 1.64 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS 1 SW Jersey City 1.61 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Harrison 1.51 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Weehawken 1.23 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS ...Passaic County... Clifton 1.23 in 1105 AM 07/09 AWS 0.8 E West Paterson 1.16 in 0245 PM 07/09 HADS ...Union County... Linden Airport 2.01 in 0255 PM 07/09 AWOS Mountainside 1.77 in 0230 PM 07/09 IFLOWS Newark Airport 1.43 in 0251 PM 07/09 ASOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... Harlem 1.20 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS ...Kings County... Brooklyn 2.26 in 1105 AM 07/09 CWOP Prospect Park 1.70 in 0255 PM 07/09 AWS Brooklyn College 1.67 in 0300 PM 07/09 NYSM ...Nassau County... Matinecock 3.90 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Levittown 3.79 in 1100 AM 07/09 CWOP Wantagh 3.27 in 1105 AM 07/09 NYSM Merrick 3.05 in 1200 PM 07/09 Trained Spotter Muttontown 2.93 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Glen Head 2.92 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Bellmore 2.77 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Freeport 2.62 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS East Hills 2.39 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Oyster Bay 2.36 in 0730 AM 07/09 CWOP Mineola 2.29 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Rockville Centre 1.81 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Searingtown 1.77 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS ...New York County... Central Park 1.79 in 1051 AM 07/09 ASOS Midtown Manhattan 1.76 in 1105 AM 07/09 NYSM Washington Heights 1.45 in 0830 AM 07/09 AWS Battery Park 1.37 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS ...Orange County... Walden 1.49 in 0700 AM 07/09 COCORAHS US Military Academy 1.42 in 0155 PM 07/09 RAWS West Point 1.24 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS 0.8 N Port Jervis 1.08 in 0700 AM 07/09 COOP ...Putnam County... Brewster 1.48 in 1105 AM 07/09 NYSM Mahopac 1.45 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS ...Queens County... Bellerose 1.65 in 1101 AM 07/09 CWOP NYC/La Guardia 1.41 in 1051 AM 07/09 ASOS NYC/JFK Airport 1.32 in 0251 PM 07/09 ASOS Kew Garden Hills 1.20 in 1105 AM 07/09 NYSM ...Richmond County... College of Staten Island 2.07 in 1105 AM 07/09 NYSM ...Rockland County... Pomona 1.87 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS Blauvelt 1.67 in 0247 PM 07/09 CWOP Sloatsburg 1.34 in 0245 PM 07/09 CWOP Suffern 1.27 in 0300 PM 07/09 NYSM New City 1.21 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS ...Suffolk County... Greenlawn 4.53 in 0254 PM 07/09 CWOP N. Babylon 4.24 in 0300 PM 07/09 CWOP Deer Park 3.80 in 1100 AM 07/09 NWS Employee Kings Park 3.79 in 0246 PM 07/09 CWOP Saint James 3.50 in 0255 PM 07/09 CWOP Stony Brook 3.44 in 0300 PM 07/09 NYSM Lake Ronkonkoma 3.30 in 0256 PM 07/09 CWOP North Babylon 3.08 in 0252 PM 07/09 CWOP Centerport 2.98 in 0700 AM 07/09 COOP Shirley Airport 2.37 in 0256 PM 07/09 ASOS Islip Airport 2.26 in 0256 PM 07/09 ASOS Eastport 1.98 in 0245 PM 07/09 RAWS Northport 1.97 in 0300 PM 07/09 CWOP Blue Point 1.96 in 0301 PM 07/09 CWOP Southold 1.95 in 0300 PM 07/09 NYSM Patchogue 1.82 in 0731 AM 07/09 COCORAHS Westhampton Airport 1.78 in 0253 PM 07/09 ASOS Montauk Airport 1.61 in 0254 PM 07/09 ASOS ...Westchester County... New Rochelle 1.79 in 1105 AM 07/09 AWS Rye 1.41 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Eastchester 1.34 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Pleasantville 1.29 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Mamaroneck 1.27 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Somers 1.27 in 1105 AM 07/09 NYSM Elmsford 1.17 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS 3 ESE Goldens Bridge 1.10 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS Irvington 1.07 in 0300 PM 07/09 AWS North Tarrytown 1.06 in 1109 AM 07/09 AWS Elmsford 1.00 in 1110 AM 07/09 AWS &&

One sampler for my general closing on this thread. 5's and 6's, probably a few 7's not sampled by CoCorhas through the early Friday 3 day totals.

No time for reports/today. Noting SPC marginal risk today in the subforum. My guess, based on modeling, outside of ELSA TOR's early today, is for a possible spotty SVR event 5P-9P in the interior when time to recover from morning cloud. Have a day!

My plan is to begin a new thread around 9PM this evening, when time, Sunday the 11th through Saturday the 17th. Inclusive of FF producing thunderstorms Sun afternoon -Tuesday, with embedded wet microburst severe- then a better chance of widespread SVR Wed, FRI and/or Sat with the approaching cool front (some embedded FF). Heat Wave begins Tuesday or Wed and ends sometime next weekend, Rainfall: depends on repeat events, but widespread basic rainfall of 1/2" in the 7 day period, no big deal but isolated 6" possible due to PW Sun-due near 2", popping back up to near 2" Fri into Sat morning. Heat index near 100 Thu and or Fri. All in all, summer normal hot, but I think the bigger story will be FF producing storms and my guess is 3- possibly 5 more days of SVR reports in the forum. On some days the svr will be on the northern or southern fringe of our subforum but still the risk is there. BIG CAPE is one of the drivers. Bigger wind fields Wed and next Fro-Sat. DRY Hottest day may be next Thu??? That's my prelim framework. Will recheck this eve and with time, post it.

From OKX at 857PM: Two 4"+ only today!! UBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 857 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2021 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS OF RAINFALL OF 1.00 INCH OR GREATER TAKEN DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS, COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS, SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY ALSO IS AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL******************** LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...CONNECTICUT... ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... GREENWICH 1.57 IN 0801 PM 07/08 CWOP 5.6 NE DANBURY 1.53 IN 0745 PM 07/08 HADS ARMONK 1.50 IN 0800 PM 07/08 CWOP GREENWICH 1.17 IN 0801 PM 07/08 CWOP STAMFORD 1.11 IN 0750 PM 07/08 AWS DANBURY 1.00 IN 0758 PM 07/08 CWOP ...NEW JERSEY... ...BERGEN COUNTY... WALDWICK 4.92 IN 0750 PM 07/08 CWOP LODI 4.56 IN 0745 PM 07/08 IFLOWS NEW MILFORD 3.70 IN 0750 PM 07/08 AWS PARK RIDGE 3.64 IN 0800 PM 07/08 IFLOWS PARAMUS 3.21 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWS HACKENSACK 2.59 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS TETERBORO AIRPORT 2.37 IN 0751 PM 07/08 ASOS RIVER VALE 2.21 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS FAIR LAWN 2.07 IN 0800 PM 07/08 CWOP 0.6 W OAKLAND 2.01 IN 0800 PM 07/08 HADS 0.6 SW HILLSDALE 1.88 IN 0715 PM 07/08 IFLOWS BOGOTA 1.86 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS CRESSKILL 1.50 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS 1 SSE FRANKLIN LAKES 1.44 IN 0745 PM 07/08 IFLOWS HAWORTH 1.35 IN 0750 PM 07/08 NJWXNET EMERSON 1.30 IN 0730 PM 07/08 CWOP OAKLAND 1.30 IN 0755 PM 07/08 CWOP OAKLAND 1.27 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS OAKLAND 1.25 IN 0800 PM 07/08 CWOP OAKLAND 1.15 IN 0756 PM 07/08 CWOP LITTLE FERRY 1.07 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS LEONIA 1.04 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS ...ESSEX COUNTY... 0.6 SW CALDWELL 1.40 IN 0745 PM 07/08 IFLOWS MONTCLAIR 1.14 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS WEST CALDWELL 1.04 IN 0755 PM 07/08 CWOP FAIRFIELD 1.03 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS ...HUDSON COUNTY... HOBOKEN 1.62 IN 0757 PM 07/08 CWOP 1 ENE JERSEY CITY 1.46 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS 1 SW JERSEY CITY 1.43 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS WEEHAWKEN 1.26 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS ...PASSAIC COUNTY... PASSAIC 3.83 IN 0801 PM 07/08 CWOP 0.8 SE POMPTON LAKES 1.76 IN 0730 PM 07/08 HADS CLIFTON 1.66 IN 0750 PM 07/08 AWS HAWTHORNE 1.55 IN 0750 PM 07/08 CWOP CLIFTON 1.02 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS ...NEW YORK... ...BRONX COUNTY... FORDHAM 3.55 IN 0845 PM 07/08 NYSM PELHAM PARKWAY HOUSES 2.73 IN 0800 PM 07/08 CWOP HARLEM 2.48 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS ...NASSAU COUNTY... GREAT NECK 1.64 IN 0755 PM 07/08 CWOP LEVITTOWN 1.17 IN 0750 PM 07/08 AWS THOMASTON 1.12 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWS ...NEW YORK COUNTY... WASHINGTON HEIGHTS 2.94 IN 0750 PM 07/08 AWS CENTRAL PARK 2.27 IN 0751 PM 07/08 ASOS MIDTOWN MANHATTAN 1.79 IN 0755 PM 07/08 NYSM MANHATTAN 1.73 IN 0800 PM 07/08 CWOP 1 S MIDTOWN MANHATTAN 1.20 IN 0750 PM 07/08 URBANET ...ORANGE COUNTY... US MILITARY ACADEMY 1.44 IN 0755 PM 07/08 RAWS WEST POINT 1.15 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS NEWBURGH 1.11 IN 0756 PM 07/08 CWOP MONTGOMERY AIRPORT 1.04 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWOS ...PUTNAM COUNTY... BREWSTER 1.53 IN 0755 PM 07/08 NYSM ...QUEENS COUNTY... OAKLAND GARDENS 1.12 IN 0750 PM 07/08 CWOP BELLEROSE 1.03 IN 0751 PM 07/08 CWOP ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... POMONA 1.87 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS NANUET 1.62 IN 0730 PM 07/08 IFLOWS BLAUVELT 1.27 IN 0801 PM 07/08 CWOP UPPER NYACK 1.02 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS 0.9 N MONTEBELLO 1.01 IN 0730 PM 07/08 HADS ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... NORTHPORT 1.18 IN 0750 PM 07/08 CWOP SMITHTOWN 1.02 IN 0800 PM 07/08 CWOP ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... MIDLAND PARK 3.72 IN 0745 PM 07/08 IFLOWS EASTCHESTER 2.17 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWS TARRYTOWN 2.07 IN 0747 PM 07/08 CWOP ELMSFORD 2.02 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS ELMSFORD 1.82 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWS IRVINGTON 1.74 IN 0755 PM 07/08 AWS NEW ROCHELLE 1.63 IN 0801 PM 07/08 CWOP NEW ROCHELLE 1.39 IN 0750 PM 07/08 AWS WHITE PLAINS AIRPORT 1.22 IN 0756 PM 07/08 ASOS RYE 1.21 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWS NORTH TARRYTOWN 1.17 IN 0754 PM 07/08 AWS ...NEW JERSEY... ...MARITIME STATIONS... JERSEY CITY 1.97 IN 0753 PM 07/08 CWOP ...NEW YORK... CITY ISLAND 1.85 IN 0802 PM 07/08 CWOP

I have not checked any NWS discussions... but fwiw, while this mornings boxed late morning TR+ ne PA into se NYS and NW CT had some semblance of a PRE, that wasn't it and I doubt very much if anyone is talking about PRE in our area, BUT if they are, I'd like to know which discussion. Thread post outlined the researcher criteria. The even stronger WAR did not permit the cool front down here so wasn't able to gin it up here. Instead, we get the real deal TC.

For those of us with wells and very very fortunate to have a pool... no need to use the well water and burn out the pump. Hydrangeas having a fab summer as well as all the flowers around here in nw NJ.

You'll probably be right but only takes one sunny day thru 5P with a west wind...esp Thu, Fri ??? I'm still leaving the door open but it's not my feature for the coming week. Instead increasingly moistened ground, with rounds of Heavy storms, a few SVR wet microbursts. That seems probable in my view... thru 12z/8 modeling.

Unsure after Friday the 16th, waiting til tomorrow AM to start the topic (in the midst of ELSA). It does look like 90F heat will begin Tuesday- am thinking MOS is lagging but leftover ocean influence could preclude. Many models wait til Wed. There almost certainty will be spotty FF from big thunderstorms in 2"+ PW prior to the heat along the warmfront in NJ/PA. Question how far north? Also any weak TORS in non dynamic generated warm frontal TS related spin Sun-Tue, on the warm front,wherever it is. Then Wed-THU and probably FRI or even Sat: Pretty good chance of 1-3 days SVR in very high CAPE of 2500J/Heat Index near 100. Details TBD but I just checked 12z/8 EPS anoms... very impressive middle of next week and will they relax enough to permit a clean CFP late For Sat?, or does this wait til Sunday the 18th?

Hi! I've checked the 12z/8 EPS for all 12z forecast 850T forecasts next week... all 17-18C daily from Tuesday on. It's going to heat up to 90F fast. 100, not in the EPS but I just want to make sure we're looking at actual model 850 T. Anomaly is larger in Canada due to cooler climo there. That is why I'm impressed with the 500anom max showing up at least one bullseye over the mid Atlantic which has a smoother warmer height and temp field than Canada. I haven't checked any op cycles...just noticed the comments and wanted to share my perspective on anomaly vs climo. That is often why I'm not impressed with departures from climo, since the environment can be shouting Winter or HOT summer, but be so called out of season. Later, Walt

Leaving this to consider on what I think is coming next week... (not gospel but I think this is a pretty substantial signal)

No time to be sure of a headline Sunday the 11th-Sunday the 218h but am pretty sure the will be a notable period for a couple of days SVR/FF and developing heat wave by next Tuesday. Will reevaluate when time but certainly not today for me. Corrected dates after walking my dog... what was I thinking? This Sunday-following Sunday. Let's add that 90-95 to me looks like for the Heat Wave Tue-Sun time frame 13th-18th and won't surprise at near 100F for 1 day, at least KEWR. Also, the heat may persist well beyond next Sunday the 18th. Not sure what guidance folks are looking at for no heat next week, but I see quite a warm anomaly in the GEFS and also EC OP. Maybe I'm too hasty? Will evaluate Friday but as it stands now, I'm in for a topic - just don't have the properly framed wording, including timing. 710A AT 714A added EPS and GEFS 500MB anomaly. Top down long-day heat evolution and I think the MOS is going to trail reality on daily warming.

A quick wrap on the svr yesterday...basically further north than expected on my part... but there was some midnight svr in the interior of se NYS. See reports attach. Please follow all NWS-NHC statements next 24 hours on the previous (yesterday morning risks for today-fro) outlined SVR/FF this afternoon I95 west, and ELSA tonight May not be on line til tonight. Will reevaluate Sunday the 11th-Sunday the 18th Fri or Sat for a FF/SVR/Persistent heat headline but no time today. Thanks for all the input, keeping up with reports. Enjoy the grazer wind (LI) ELSA and torrents I95 east. Will try a COCoRAHS 2 day summary late today and then a 3 day late Fri or Sat morning. Corrected dates after walking my dog... what was I thinking? This Sunday-following Sunday. Let's add that 90-95 to me looks like for the Heat Wave Tue-Sun time frame 13th-18th and won't surprise at near 100F for 1 day, at least KEWR. Also, the heat may persist well beyond next Sunday. 708A

My last for the night. SVR reports this Wednesday afternoon-evening N CT and PA closest to us, so far.

Please don't give up on SVR I80 north between now and 3AM. Cu are developing near NNJ/NYS line and while the sewd moving line of svr did not materialize south of northern CT this afternoon, WAA SVR appears to be developing across northern PA into southeast NYS attm and possibly soon into extreme nw NJ. HRRR and FV3 are missing some of the ongoing heavy storms event but the HRRR is picking up on spotty 40-near 50 KT gusts next few hrs as convection appears to fire rapidly late this evening n of I80. It is stifling out there and that will not go without areas of drenching cooling rain near and N of I80 overnight. Gotta rest. Back at 5Am ish for the wrap and next events.

Lastly. Per Bluewave and others on smoke... Unsure but dont think the smoke layer interfered with with yesterdays convection? Please correct me if I'm wrong. CoCoRAHS amounts from yesterday and Power Outages as of 10A this morning are residual summary impacts from yesterday.

Am off line til at least 430P.. haven't studied anything since 4A, but the cards on the table for the next 3 days. How they're played by nature, still a little undecided but there will be pockets of significant short term impacts..., especially I80-LI northward Follow SPC, NHC, local NWS and our own participant evaluations as we move forward.

The original intent of the thread was to highlight SVR, especially Wed (which occurred a day earlier- yesterday) and ELSA related PRE, which now is ELSA. Today-Wed-the 7th: While wind fields aloft are weaker than yesterday, they are westerly and combined with HIGH CAPE and decent PWAT, should still result in SVR's, though fewer than yesterday I78 northward. I think we're looking at more hailers today as compared to yesterday, due to TT probably 50-52, and also wet microbursts. Timing 4P-10P and even develop east onto western LI. SPC has marginal risk as of the predawn evaluation... I like their east-west depiction of the threat region. Spotty max 3" amounts possible. Thursday the 8th: Adding the potential for SVR. Looks like enough separation from ELSA and enough CAPE/Instability for southwest to northeast moving SVR (few) storms, probably developing sooner than todays. The primary threat region is eastern PA over to just nw of I95 in NJ and then across se NYS and nw CT. There is some supercell signal but for now, not emphasizing. Ensembles as of 06z/7 are still edging northwest on the track. Please follow NHC track. imo only, I think we'll need tropical headline considerations for coastal NJ/LI se New England. IF the consistent modeling of the op EC is to be believed, we're looking at 40-50 KT gusts for portions of e LI and certainly a swath of 2-4" 12 hour heavy rain somewhere near I95 Friday morning. This all TBD and so it is best to follow NWS guidance. Am off line most of the day after 9A.

As we pile up positive departures of rainfall this July in our NYC subforum (anticipating spotty 4+ Wed-Fri this week in our area), I am interested in the period of Sunday the 11th-Friday the 16th for one to three severe weather or FF events. Details to be determined. The general setup is a strengthening Western Atlantic Ridge (WAR) resulting in a stalled surface frontal boundary roughly Appalachians to the northeast USA, PWAT building again fairly consistently to 1.8" AND decent wind aloft on the edge of the WAR. I could see this displacing west of us, but for now...the GFS/EC/GGEM op guidance has me thinking it's a bit easier to mesoscale flash flood in this pattern. Thank goodness there are no TC's (so far) to get caught up around the periphery of the Bermuda Ridge next week . Will not start this as a topic til at least Thu (8th) or Friday morning (9th), permitting further evaluation to confirm the above general impressions.

Well that was a bigger day than I imagined but in a way not a great surprise given the NW flow case. Attached a few rainfall amounts, max wind gusts and LSR's. Wed afternoon: could be another pretty BIG day... my guess is axised more I78-I84 region including w LI. Instability large. Wind fields 5 kt less and slightly more west to east. Max point rainfall tomorrow may be close to 3". Today had at least a couple over 2" (pls see examples attached),. Thu afternoon: Could see newd moving SVR across NJ/NYS. Early Fri: ELSA impact, could be 2-54 RAIN w Wind gusts 40 kt E LI and s NJ. Figuring max point rainfall between today's rain and ELSA's ending midday Fri and the Wed-The SVR potential... iso 4.5-6", especially CT.

Pretty big wind and rain here 534--545. 0.56" in Wantage. Power outages attached small section nw NJ.

Am off line at times next 12 hours but you see what we have. ELSA in the picture as well as some SVR the next two afternoons. Thanks in advance for keeping up with this.

Good Tuesday morning everyone, At 559AM, i see little change from previous. Today: SPC D1 outlook continues and modeling is favoring a new line forming to our north early this afternoon and driving south-southeast through NYC/I80 sometime between 5P-8P. Plenty of CAPE/KI/ and wind 35 kt near 680MB with TT49 should permit a few reports of SVR in our area. A second weaker line of showers may develop near I80-LI after dark but not be svr. Max point rainfall today probably close to 1.5 or 2". Many might only get a gusty shower? Wednesday: SPC D2 marginal risk. Less wind aloft but greater instability including TT near 52, to me permits SVR from I80 north late in the day. Of interest is whatever develops, may stall in its southward progression around sundown and then drift east-northeast as showery rain for a few hours. IF we get a band of heavy cells Wednesday, training and isolated point rainfall over 2" possible. ELSA: 00z/6 EC OP cycle continues northward drift of the track while the 00z/6 CMC stabilized or even slightly southeast from yesterday. 06z GFS se toward the NHC official, NAVGEM more threatening but no experience on this model.UNCERTAIN...follow NHC/Local NWS forecast offices on tracking, possible impacts. Am offline through 230P. Hopefully something of interest happens for our participants. My focus for heaviest total rainfall in our subforum the next 4 days is North of I80.

638PM Monday July 5- EDITED Topic Title to include ELSA- Too much modeling is drifting its track within range of coastal NJ and LI for Tropical Storm considerations Thu night-Friday AM. While it's not certain to make a direct second landfall across LI/southeastern New England, think it best to open the door a little more, at the least for 4+" rains this week combined convective outbursts and whatever Elsa.

Thanks.. cant count the chickens, so to speak - but so far, opportunity has not waned. New 12z OP is slightly closer. My thinking I-84 corridor is best chance isolated 4+ by 18z Friday, even if ELSA is a narrow miss to vcnty KACK. Probably won't comment much more til around 6A Tuesday, then off line through 230PM Tue.