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It must be in the very recent years that emphasis has shifted from NAO to AO for ne USA snow. I've no skill at LR except it does seem that NAO has be - to make it more favorable.

IF this sounding verifies this evening just nw of NYC, you'll possibly hear of a snow squall warning. Unsure whether this can verify this close to the city. Has wind to 40 kt in the event.

Wantage NJ as of 625A: 0.56" past 19 hours.

Monday morning March 1 625AM Update: Good to see the sleet obs yesterday in our distant nw suburbs. Below restates what is obviously modeled and discussed in prior days updates: I moved the timing up an hour and changed the title to add OBS-NOWCAST as well. Will have summary maps of rain, any snowfall, and possibly wind gusts 45+ in tomorrow's (Tuesday) 10AM wrapup-review. Tonight 7PM/1 -3AM/2. Turning sharply colder with bands of flurries and snow showers causing a few areas of hazardous travel as temps fall from near freezing at 7PM to between 5 and 15 above by dawn Tuesday I84, and near 20 NYC, along with gusty northwest winds 35-45 MPH and wind chill down just below zero. Most areas only flurries, but a half inch of snow is possible a few locations ne PA, extreme nw NJ and especially se NYS, CT and maybe even e LI. A wind advisory is posted with NYC wind chill close to zero at sunrise Tuesday.

Good Monday morning everyone! It's March 1. For the I84 corridor. Looks like a cold first week of March and generally mild the second week, after the 8th. Below restates what is obviously modeled. Tonight 7PM/1 -3AM/2. Turning sharply colder with bands of flurries and snow showers causing a few areas of hazardous travel as temps fall from near freezing at 7PM to between 5 and 15 above by dawn Tuesday, along with gusty northwest winds 35-45 MPH and wind chill down just below zero. Most areas only flurries, but a half inch of snow is possible a few locations. A wind advisory is posted. This coming weekend: A period of light snow is possible? Northwest flow clipper-reinforcing cold front...not the large strong ocean storm modeled by the EPS. Whatever snowpack greater than 2 inches that is on the ground at sundown today has a good chance of remaining nearly intact through March 8th, with only minor melt along the edges. As written in prior posts. Wantage, High Point still in pretty deep snowpack. Was at exit 8 I84 (Cobb) at 2000 feet yesterday. VERY impressive deep pack there.

EPS is coming back closer but long ways to go with GEPS/GEFS nil so far, as well as the NAEFS. What is becoming somewhat evident is a northwest flow reinforcing cold front that may have a clipper like low attached and a bit of light snow for the forum, mainly north of LI/80. Far distant i time but not complete closure. I'm more interested in the northwest flow reinforcing clipper potential while EPS has a close call large-strong ocean storm for the shoreline only.

650A Sunday/28: Ttile dropped snow from the snow to rain scenario. Significant 21 hour rainfall (1/2" I84 to 3/4-1.5" NJ/LI) this afternoon into Monday mid morning with snowmelt but not enough for a problem. Could see the need for something water related a part of urban ne NJ by Monday morning? Dense fog possible tonight with mild moist air over chilly ground. I think there will be spotty icing highest peaks of the Poconos/Catskills/Litchfield Hills this afternoon-tonight but no significant treated road problem. Small chance that rain ends as wet snow forenoon Monday I84 high terrain with little or no impact, if it does end as snow. Monday evening from roughly 8P -4A Tuesday, flurries likely to near NYC with a band or two of snow squalls CT/NYS/ne PA and possibly extreme nw NJ that could coat roads with a hazardous 1/2" accumulation in 30 minutes, along with gusty northwest winds to near 45 MPH, a few minutes of reduced visibility under 1/2mile and icy roads due to temps plummeting from near freezing at 8PM to the teens by dawn Tuesday (20-22F NYC?) and wind chill near zero CT/NYS/PA. We'll see if the models back off but from what i can tell, the early GFS op (V15) has been onto this from many days ago, much more so than any other model. NYC either no snow or a Trace of flurries. Some of the modeling suggests a band of squalls crosses from CT through e LI later Monday night.

For those that still have snowpack that is 3" or more Tuesday morning-March 2nd interior se NYS, extreme nw NJ/ne PA, you should still have some snowpack remaining into March 8. This last line I probably won't remember to track but that's what some of the modeling suggests.

One run of the V16 I think had quite an event...one member of interest out of the hundreds that that will pour out of the models. the upcoming next week. Just showed it as potential, but havent tracked the image and i certainly didn't say this would happen. Too many burns on stuff beyond 7 days. What hasn't happened, to my recollection, is a sudden modeling change 72 hours in advance that goes from nothing to a snowstorm. While I can't rule this out in the future, I do think modeling has improved so much the past few years that the so-called SURPRISE snowstorm around NYC is seldom, if at all. Credit the researchers-modeling capabilities-science. Think that's why we need to monitor ensembles immediately after our interest is piqued with a ballistic single member. We're better off. That way life's good hours don't disappear wasted, in the quest for the elusive snowstorm. This change in NAO is our immediate shot for an event. If not this coming week, then I suspect we have to wait another week or longer as it looks mild to me 8th-15th. However, I am curious about why the jet is depressed (suspiciously low heights southern USA toward the 15th). I've no explanation (unless it's MJO related). If those heights are that low in the south, then i get interested in what eventually follows since short waves will scoop the Gulf moisture. Pretty substantial jet resumes by mid March around 35N and the CFS has for the most part been targeting that 35N axis with heavier than normal qpf th'e next 30 days, while we're sometimes in and sometimes north of that axis.

Doesn't look an event to me, unless we get a clipper that dives southeast from the Great Lakes and passes s of LI around the 7th-8th. Long ways to go. Think I'd look for the clipper as a 'hope' for any widespread synoptic scale low pressure driven snow event, otherwise we have an unusually long essentially dry period here that lasts from March 2nd beyond March 9.

Graphic's ob... time CoCoRaHs ob vs yours, how we measure... and location. a tenth difference... good enough for me.

Nice to see but so much can shred or tighten up... at this distant date... treat as another member and watch the EPS (and GEFS/GEPS) 24 hr qpf and snowfall, of course the 500MB pattern. I could see this running up into New England or interior NJ with snow to rain as per some of the modeling i saw a day or two ago. Worthy of self monitoring, plenty of patience and not too much time invested--in case it's a dissapointment. Been a good winter. Walt

Yes, GFSv16 has ~half a foot along the e coast (I95 eastward from northern NC northeastward). I'd like to the EPS/GEFS snow amounts start accumulating for this potential, before I jump in. Lot's can wrong but interesting for sure.

Hope you're right. 06z/27 GEFS split the northern and southern streams by the 7th and never hooked enough to give much of northward response (post tilt northern stream). Would like to see the southern stream short wave come out faster, but it may not. Then by the time it does, too late with little cold enough air remaining. Distant horizon in time. Definitely not doing anything (from my initiation) for another day or 2 til some sort of model agreement on a northward translation close to the coast.

At 830AM: added graphics of what happened late last evening-this morning through about 7AM via CoCoRaHs. Will update tomorrow for any very minor additional amounts in NYS/CT.

Not sure about wall-wall but I think you'll keep your fair percentage of your snowpack. The best chance of a big warmup is early Monday afternoon. Otherwise, lack of wind will keep air temp down, plus cloud cover, and so the rain will absorb and ripen the pack a bit. Fog may be the biggest pack eater, especially Sunday night. I'm not even sure the snow that fell this morning will melt on its own here and I'll clear it during midday, Takes heat out of the air to melt/evap. Helps w keeping temps a bit cooler. Hope we all can keep most of what we have into the 4th. Post us tomorrow and Monday on pack status.

655A Saturday/27: Coming to the end of this thread... that may end with a noticeable bang. Definitely a significant rainfall (1/2"or more) Sunday into Monday morning with snowmelt but not enough for a problem. Dense fog possible Sunday night with mild moist air over chilly ground. Chance that rain ends as wet snow forenoon Monday I84 high terrain with minuscule impact. However, Monday evening from roughly 8P -4A Tuesday, flurries likely to near NYC with a band or two of snow squalls CT/NYS/ne PA and possibly extreme nw NJ that could coat roads with a hazardous 1/2-1" accumulation in an hours time, along with gusty northwest winds to near 45 MPH, a few minutes of reduced visibility under 1/2mile and icy roads due to temps plummeting from near freezing at 8PM to the teens by dawn Tuesday (20-22F NYC?) and wind chill near zero CT/NYS/PA. We'll see if the models back off but from what i can tell, the early GFS op (V15) has been onto this from many days ago, much more so than any other model. Bluewave detailed elsewhere in the March thread.

Waiting another 12-48 hours before a possible thread on March 6-7. Modeling potential exists for a large late winter coastal storm with snow inland and rain/snow coast. For now mostly Atlantic cod, but should continue to monitor.

Wantage NJ as of 6A. 1" here and still nsnowing and a report by High Point and Stockholm of 1" as well.

Wantage NJ 0.8" at 455A and still snowing with mping snowing to my south and still ice pellets near RDG. 32F. Roads wet.

Wantage NJ (this part) at 345A 0.7". Roads wet but all other surfaces covered. 32F. still snowing, small flakes.

517PM Friday: seems to be getting slightly more interesting for ice and snow distant nw-ne suburbs. First: GFS v15 looks like, (barring a complete fade within 4 days) the winner regarding the intensity of this cold shot Monday night. Second: Unclear to me whether it warms much above freezing high terrain near I84 Sunday and I can see smidge of ice there. Third: Chance of dense snow eating fog late Sunday? Fourth: Modeling from both the GFS V15 and 16 has started showing more minor snow shower/flurry action Monday, on the backside of Sundays rain (and dense fog by night?). And 18z/26 GFS modeling is moving flurries down to near LI sound later Monday night with the strong polar cold front that looks like it may have gusts near 45 MPH drilling sharply colder temps into NYC. Will revisit Sunday morning.

509PM: Possibly my last update for the evening. Other than the low levels being a little too warm, it's conceivable that snow will be seen to within about 10 miles of the NJT late tonight with minor (trace to 2") accumulations as previously discussed ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS and I84 northward in CT. No new obs thread for this for many reasons, including minor 1-4 hour wintry event, occurring during the night when many will be sleeping and many areas melting as it hits the ground.

Good morning, Thanks much for the above. Not threading anything yet for March 3-8. I see potential the 3rd-4th, 6th-8th. Both significant... all contributing two what the CFS is trying to sell us, an above normal qpf month... CFS has ~6" by the end of March. Probably overdone but we're in the active axis. How it all goes down? Don't know but some of this will be snow/ice interior, especially first week of March. I still think we need to pay attention to March 1. GEFS is sharpening west of our longitude March 1. Sopfar not much response in rain/snow after 15z March 1, but I like the 06z/26 recent trend. I want to see the V16 grab this in the next couple of 26th cycles and start moving to more qpf Monday and some snow I84 corridor. Something will have to happen for the v16. Right now, the GGEM is drifting to a GFS op solution, quite a strong CFP Monday night. Still has opportunity to soften but am thinking all these models still aren't latching onto the most probable solution. Wishcast or reality?

Friday 638AM update: Am still not convinced that this event will be insignificant but it's heading to a possibly wrongs-wasted thread. We do know it's going to rain and potentially pretty hard for a time on Sunday with precipitation lingering into Monday morning. Evolution has not yet permitted cold enough air to return, allowing for precip to change to snow Monday. Of concern to all who favor the GFSv16 implementation, is the still far different modeling between the V16 and the current operational V15. V15 in my opinion seems to have a pretty good chance of prevailing with it's polar cold frontal passage Monday night, flurries or snow showers possible down to NYC with plunging temps well down into the 20s in NYC (maybe ~22?). Meanwhile late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. Complex rain (spotty ice) possibly end as snow event. Any icy weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. Precipitation may end briefly as snow the rest of I84 corridor Monday morning March 1? So far, models say proceed with normal life with significant wintry weather unlikely.