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wdrag

Meteorologist
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  1. And just like that, it's gone from the op 12z/7 GGEM. Certainly no topic action on my part today. GFSv15,16. ICON and GGEM all south. Cant go with an EC alone and have no confidence in UK beyond 3 days. Will rereview with multiple ensembles this afternoon but i cant confidently topic this event for the NYC forum til sometime tomorrow at the earliest. Patience needed. I think we need to accept the smaller events as much more probable than any big I95 snowstorm. Also, its may be that our big ones for near the coast, occur when there is a large transition in NAO and PNA Can be either + or - LARGE change... When the oscillation is stable - or +, we might not get as many big storms. I do remember H. Archambault ne snowstorms paper talking about 3 successive short waves changing the oscillation to negative and as I recall, it was the third that nailed us in the northeast. These are infrequent dreams. I think the oscillation transitions require big jet stream adjustments, possibly helpful for a big storm here in the northeast? Finally, if we cant even get a couple 1-3"rs the next two weeks, then let's blast some cold air down here and get the front end thump snow ending as a bit of junky rain...at least we will marvel at dendrites for a few hours. Right now, it's car wash weather up here to get rid of the salty dirty look to our vehicles. Media could be right with their subtle pronouncement midday yesterday (based on the GFS) that it's basically quiet for at least another week or so? Myself, the best snowstorms around here in the northeast are northern-southern stream phasers and i don't see any hope for that til at least the 15th.
  2. Excellent approach... I just have to give weight to the GFS contributing. One reason, I sense the media like this model... It certainly competes and I'm not quite as gungho on EC/GFS stand alone as probably many in the community. Trying to use the best of what's offered and make a realistic guess at the future. I've also checked CPC, and haven't quite understood why their 6- ~20 day outlooks are normal or below on qpf along the east coast. I cant find access to previous 6-10 outlooks of the past several days but they were dry along the east coast, for some reason? So i keep that in mind but think overall, 3-5 > 0.10 qpf opportunities coming the next two weeks starting Monday the 11th...whether they produce what we prefer??
  3. Yep... hopefully this continues with the 12z/7 cycle, but if evidence of sewd shift in the 12z/7 cycle, then more reason to wait. And I'd like at a minimum, the 12z/7 NAEFS to be more emphatic and the 12z/7 GFSv16 to bring it up here. V16? Cause that's the GFS op of the future... if it's not on board in advance of the GFS V15 op and the event occurs, then more fuel for my doubts. I am just not qualitatively seeing any indication of GFS16 BL physics (rain/snow) improvement here in our small corner of the world.
  4. Greeting's this Thursday morning, Jan 7. I do not plan to start a topic for the 12th-13th, until the 12z/7 cycle guidance shows the GFS fully joining and hopefully consistent 00z-12z/7 EC-GGEM operational for an event. If I have to wait til tomorrow morning or beyond for this agreement, I will. I just do not want another 8th-9th miss for our forum and that one I thought was a good topic, that presumably will end up too far southeast - a miss. Here's what I've posted for a FB group of non - weather friends who just want an idea of if a hazard is coming. Baltimore to Boston along and NORTHWEST of I95 and inclusive of the entire I84 corridor (not Adirondacks) Tuesday the 12th ending Wednesday morning the 13th. Potential for at least several inches of snow which may change to rain for a time along I95?? This event is not guaranteed yet. I think we'll know much more with tomorrow morning's post. Friday-Saturday the 15th-16th: I84 corridor...a possible snow event? Best I can do through the 06z/7 operationals and ensembles. One note: The challenge continues on GGEM... I see some just don't think much of the GGEM. I can only say: if the GGEM doesn't have you big, it won't be. So far, this season nothing has changed. It's a good model, one that I know some of our NWS friends in the northeast USA look to for decision making. This perception on my part dates back to at least the early 2000's. Let's make this a good day and hope this pattern becomes productive for us up here in the northeast.
  5. fwiw, i agree w all you stated herein, 06z/6 GEFS or not. Models are gradually improving. IF you havre large scale support with little room for stream sensitivity interruptions, the storms occur as outlooked a week or more in advance. But in lesser large scale rdiges/trough dominance with a more unstable pattern (many short waves), the so called D3-4 surprise (uh-oh) changes occur, resulting in a big change in the forecast reality. I see us in a somewhat unstable pattern now with the dominance being blocking north of 50N in N America, and a general troughness in the southern USA. I use this 52 member NAEFS as general reasonable anticipation of D8-14. I check its 00z outlooks vs itself and the 12z outlooks vs itself, and while it cools a bit in central North America during mid month... to me it says we're near or above normal through at least the 20th here in the northeast USA. Sometimes this NAEFS is wrong but often, I think it reasonable. And, while I haven't verified, the EPS, I think it best to look at EPS 500MB and 850MB departures from seasonal normals, not the sfc temp, which may???be biased a little cold, sometimes because of climo snow cover. This latter contention on my part about EPS cold bias in temps at distance from T0 could be wrong, but think it's wise to check that vs EPS projected 850MB departure from normal temps.
  6. Cold outbreaks and stratwarm. I see no big cold outbreaks here for at least the next two weeks. I'm hearing of the stratwarm induced cold outbreak... stratwarm or not, aren't we due for at least a short 3 day period of 10 to15F below normal before the end of met winter? Seems normal to me. If daily 10 below normal lasts for virtually all of a week, that I think that is more notable. Hope it comes, otherwise no skating this winter on Culvers Lake in nw NJ.(second successive winter of poor ice thickness).
  7. No topic considerations from me, beyond the failed Jan 8-9 topic, until the GGEM comes on board. GGEM may be later coming on board than initial projections from GFS 15,16,EC but I'm waiting til the GGEM is on board. That's when I think there is a good chance of verification, Even then, there can be failure. At a minimum 1 GGEM cycle and preferably two successive 12 hr GGEM cycles. (Ive checked back on the GGEM for this Jan 8-9 NYC subforum failed event...it was blocked quite far south with the 00z/3 cycle).
  8. Good Wednesday morning all, Jan 6. Unless something highly unusual occurs, I've made my last update for this topic. This is a busted January 2 outlook that faded with model cycles only 24 hours after issuance, beginning around the 00z/3 cycle., blocked to our south and southeast.
  9. Have seen multiple model 12z/5 guidance including EPS/GEFS ensembles and basically all say not coming up, except the NAEFS which still has at least 1 member coming significantly west than the preponderance of global model guidance. I am stubborn on this, not giving up the option of at least a snow grazer just se of I95 for the 9th. Am out of the more studied group on this and will review others input, but usually you need to wait til about 72 hours prior to the event to be very-very sure of the 500 MB interactions on a somewhat sensitive uncertain northern-southern stream handoff... the idea of having good 00z/12z upper air data to go with the satellite/aircraft/radar/surface data inputs. Since we're still on the 5th, I think I'll finally know for sure, whether this system will drop off my interest by 3PM Wednesday. Right now, it cannot come unorth into the NYC forum per virtually all guidance and that has to be the way it's played. Still, i hear media saying 10 days or more of no events... very difficult for me to believe that 1/8-9, 12ish, miss. NAEFS has both missing n of I84. So, I'm being patient on a potent system, and probably erroneously giving too much consideration for a more northwest track than modeled through the 12z/5 cycle. I would think that if that northwest track were to occur, it would be more evident in some of the 00Z-12z/6 modeling.
  10. Good Tuesday morning Jan 5: Update of the topic dropped the 8th, and dropped the tag of ice. The preponderance of 00z/06z January 5 2021 guidance favors a miss for this developing mid Atlantic coast nor'easter and so my Jan 1 confidence is probably wrongly over confident for an 8-9 day outlook. However, we're still at 96 hours (4 days) with somewhat delicate northern-southern stream trough interactions in the northeast USA Friday and Saturday. Some of the guidance has minor amounts of precipitation skimming the NJ coast/e LI with ensembles interestingly showing a little more extensive minor qpf coverage for southern New England. That New England coverage may be due to the eventual development of an upper level low over central or southern New England on Saturday (light wind), and a possibility for a period of easterly flow aloft , caused by the flow interactions of the modeled offshore storm and the northern stream short wave in New England. So it would not surprise to see some light or very light snow on the coasts into CT/MA but for now--- please go with your take on the event. I can't push this occurrence in the face of all the recent 3 days of modeling. We're still 96 hours in advance of the storms passage and once in a while models make significant adjustments in somewhat uncertain northern -southern stream interactions.
  11. Wantage NJ: 0.1" snow (fine). 32.4/32.2 some pavement just wet. fine-small snowflakes continue at 4A 1/5/21
  12. Results of the event, which was basically 830A/3-6A/4...various start times. The worst appears to be have been centered near 6-7PM. Had sleet/glaze freezing drizzle in nw NJ and ne PA. First 3 are CoCoRAHS and the last image is the NWS LSR map of posted reports. Note that WPC guidance didn't seem to handle the 08z/3 2"+ and especially 4"+ probabilities very well in the Poconos and Catskills.
  13. Agreed north of the MD border, but UK stable s of there. The following is said without 12z/GEFS, EC, EPS: I am biased to this coming up but the preponderance of evidence as everyone is saying, is southeast of NYC forum or a grazer central NJ, e tip LI. I think this Hatteras storm will deepen NNE before turning east or east northeast out to sea and i think that's what the UK is trying to say, with a northern pivot point axis near DC/BWI. I don't like all the far south scenarios with the craziness of the ne USA upper air. Just takes a little more sharpening and rather than proceeding out to sea, the coastal would impact the forum. So, I have not at all conceded that this is out to sea and harmless for the NYC forum. Maybe tomorrow or Wednesday i will have to. For now, I think it continues worthy to monitor. Let's see if any of the models have an uh-oh change in the next 24 hours. If not, then it's a bad read on my part.
  14. Mapped results of the 1/3-4/21 event: Results of the event, which was basically 830A/3-6A/4...various start times. The worst appears to be have been centered near 6-7PM/ Sunday the 3rd. Had sleet/glaze freezing drizzle in nw NJ and ne PA during the afternoon. First 3 are CoCoRAHS and the last image is the NWS LSR map of posted reports. Note that WPC guidance didn't seem to handle the 08z/3 2"+ and especially 4"+ probabilities very well in the Poconos and Catskills. Quote Edit
  15. May have a dusting to 1/2" Tuesday morning nw tip NJ, interior se NYS and ne PA.
  16. As noted previously, most of the modeling has our forum on the nw fringe of the storm, if anything at all. Models have a complex upper air pattern in the northeast USA, so the NC/VA's snow event-storm may yet come a little closer, dependent upon upper air interactions up here. As it stands now, the central NJ e tip of Li of our subforum would be grazed with minor amounts (rain or snow?). But the op UK even while having shifted se, is a current outlier solution for an event here. Just have to watch for trends in the 12z/4 and 00z/5 cycles. I definitely want to see the GGEM spread more than 0.1" qpf into our forum by the 00z/5 cycle and the GFS come back north.. NAEFS has us on the edge and I haven't seen much southward drift the past 00z/4 cycle. That leaves me staying with this outlook, til am assured we've been bypassed to the southeast.
  17. Will try to add a map of snow reports via CoCoRAHS around 11A. If there are any PNS's/LSR compiled totals issued after midnight this morning -- please add, if there is time.
  18. Wantage NJ... a number of 2-4" reports around here in the northern part of Sussex County-nw tip of NJ... I was 2.3". We'll wake up to a winter wonderland of snow covered trees etc and wet pavement. 32F.
  19. fwiw, you're supposed to use max snow depth for your snowfall, prior to compacting. So your 2" snow"fall" is accurate. Your snow depth now may be under 2".
  20. Where its yellow on the radar n of I80 nw Nj and se NYS..think thats S+ big flake snow. We just had 0.6" in 20 minutes..big flake. still pretty good snowfall rate now. for the day 1.3 with 1.1 on the ground now and it should snow most of the time here in this part of nw NJ through 1-4A. That should be my last report for a while. Regards all-thanks for your reports.
  21. NYC forum: for sure the se edge of the snow across nw NJ... hope it makes 2 or 3". The sleet nixed it. Event still a mess but not as snow productive as anticipated. Probably my last of this eve unless we spark some decent snowfall. It's pretty wet and densely packed. 31.5F Treated roads were just wet.
  22. Wantage NJ thin glaze and now sleet and a bit of snow mix. Quite an icy mess underfoot with a temp of 30.6F. I hear 2-3" at 2000 feet Mt Cobb PA exit 8 on I84 and snowing pretty hard. Use the positive snow depth or Ferrier for your assured snowfall tonight, wherever you are. The sleet has messed up the se edge here in nw NJ.
  23. Well... take it for what it's worth... EC 12z cycle is on our side (snow lovers). Expect 2-5" between 3P and 7A, most of it this evening but as others have noted with the 500MB-700-850MB trough aloft passing through, there could be a nice flake size event 1-3AM Monday, w of the CT River Hope the numbers attached in Kuchera come up a little for I84 e of HFD to vicinity ORH. Just keeps looking sort of dry there and so I can understand this via the transferring process. Definitely will need snow cleanup most of the forum i80 north and especially w of the CT River before proceeding with the day. Okay, as fwiw...Kuchera.. may or may not be a little on the high side. I can tell you the EC SD forecast increased for our forum on the southern edge, from the previous 00z/3 EC op forecast. So, it's all about short term now... Watch the radar. Radarscope subtle return nw NJ is probably freezing drizzle as at our home here in Wantage (30.7F). But soon as that lift in PA arrives, we go snow, maybe a little sleet too? 132P
  24. Wow! Elevation made quite a difference. I had 0.2" at 740' MSL.
  25. Not the best of news... but generally speaking, this is the 12z SPC HREF outlook through 7AM Monday. Just continues to look like a disappointment east and northeast of Hartford. This may be wrong but I have to account for the constancy of the signal. FWIW... the 00z/3 HREF missed the stripe of 1" down near RDG/ABE. So, it's not over but I think most of the decent action next 18 hours is w CT, westward and maybe North through east through sse of ORH. Meanwhile we may be impressed by snowfall rates in PA from near IPT to AVP and the Catskills later today.
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