wdrag

Max wind field to the w of NYC. That is where the 3K NAM has the core of the wind. Added 12z 3K NAM 850MB wind forecast 18z/30, and 03z/1. I think it still be unstable through midnight. Power outages should increase.

Wind reports are adding up: 45-near 50KT vicinity NYC, and this without the coldest core-strongest wind, yet. Graphics added at 338P. This is turning into a high Wind event due in part to leaved trees. Maybe a few folks see small hail or flurries late today/tonight n of I80 in NJ/se NYS/PA and CT? KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KALB: Albany, Albany Intl Arpt, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KBDR: Bridgeport, CT, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KBGM: Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KBOS: Boston, Logan Intl Arpt, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KBWI: Baltimore, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KCBE: Cumberland, MD, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KCKB: Clarksburg, Clarksburg Benedum Airport, WV, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KDCA: Reagan National Airport, DC, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KDYL: Doylestown, Doylestown Airport, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KEWB: New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KEWR: Newark, Newark Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KHGR: Hagerstown, MD, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KIJD: Willimantic, Windham Airport, CT, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KILG: Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KLNS: Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMDT: Harrisburg, Harrisburg Intl Arpt, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KMJX: Toms River, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KMQE: East Milton, MA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KMRB: Martinsburg, WV, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KNEL: Lakehurst, NJ, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KORE: Orange, Orange Municipal Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KPHL: Philadelphia, Philadelphia Intl Arpt, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KPKB: Parkersburg, WV, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPLN: Pellston, MI, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPNE: NE Philadelphia, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KRDG: Reading, Reading Regional Airport, PA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KROA: Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KRSP: Campd David, MD, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KRVL: Reedsville / Mifflin, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KSCH: Schenectady Airport, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KSYR: Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KTNB: Boone, Watauga County Hospital Heliport, NC, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KTTN: Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KUNI: Ohio Univ. Airport, WV, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KWRI: Mcguire AFB, NJ, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

Quick check at 525A/30: Axis of strongest winds aloft appears to be NYS/NJ to far w LI. Richardson # via 3K NAM says best chance of transfer 40-45 KT (ridges Poconos 50kt), is 8P-1A. NAM FOUS BL wind fcst (06z/30) suggests marginal for 40kt NYC east, with best chance in our area for sct 40 kt NJ/PA/Catskills. Still could see iso 50 kt, but thinking on that is only ridges wnw of NYC. Follow OKX/PHI statements.

Interesting shear this eve and unstable. Pre event shower-glob may nix this eve Severe risk but not dismissing if TSTMs develop. On the job so no time to check except cursory look. I may add something this eve but cannot add further til then. Have a day

For the record: You saw last evening's local storm reports for damage ne PA, extreme nw NJ which did result in a power outage here in Wantage around 830P with max G 37MPH. Rainfall total was .19, most of that in 20 minutes. Todays total now over .54" as we make up for below normal April rainfall.

Please follow NWS (SPC/local offices) for additional information on the late Thursday afternoon-evening SVR threat. Confidence on SVR late today is less than a CAA wind event for late Friday. Used HRRR/EC/3KNAM for main guidance, Richardson # projects strongest wind transfer of a descending jet Friday evening, after sunset. Whether that occurs? However lapse rates do increase substantially with the arrival of the cold pool aloft allowing opportunity for damaging wind gusts late Fri-Fri eve. No time for graphics-please follow up as you think best. This thread should serve as the thread for any damage reports.

Not to distract from current nice warmth, considering a thread issuance 6A Thursday for sct Fri aft/eve gusts 40-48 kt per a number of models. Would like one further check of 00z/29 guidance. More or less typical for our area. Enjoy the warmth.

Thanks for keeping up w this... have had big sprinkles here in Wantage at 815A. Cold influx is soo fast, while it's hailing near NYC at 3P (if it's hailing), it could be snowing in parts of the Poconos including KMPO. HRRR gusts are starting to nudge slightly higher in isolated cells (I think 40KT+, especially NYS-CT). Off to work for me. Have a day.

The 06z/21 SPC guidance attached. I won't be commenting on this thread til possibly 6P. Whether this occurs quite as robustly as SPC has discussed is uncertain in my mind but deserves consideration. Follow SPC/OKX/PHI updates and have a good day.

SPC continues Marginal risk se NYS-NJ. 00z-06z/20 HRRR/NAM/EC have decent development Wednesday afternoon. TT near 53 flag attention for hail and gust transfer looks like 40-45KT. Follow NWS local offices/SPC/and our own members assessments. Have added the SPC discussion plus the EC (just below SPC)/GFS (below EC) fcst sounding for 18z/21 n central NJ as an idea of what seems to be coming via convection for NJ. CAPE is marginal and KI OK. Activity while still fairly strong crossing LI/CT will ingest cooler southerly inflow from the ocean to limit potential hailers/wind gusts? Even so, the wind shift with significant cold air advection during the evening may induce isolated gusts 40 kt on the island? Have a look. This thread should also serve well for any significant reports of whatever convection occurs Wednesday afternoon.

Bluewave among others is on it for Wed... maybe if it looks like hailers are a good bet, will start a thread Tuesday AM for Wed afternoon.

I wish we had room to store images for a year... I also think it valuable to go back and see the images and check threads. However, in order for me to post further images, I need to ensure I am capable and haven't run out of storage. Maybe we need to donate to AMWX to increase the image archive? Best I can do, Walt

More? you want more?? Maybe Wed afternoon a T-1/2", flurries even possible Thursday L Harmony... quite a cold strong short wave, that may spew small hailers out ahead of it in the line Wed afternoon across the NYC forum. A couple more short waves follow with blocking attempts. Wed afternoon is the first chance for minor snowfall in the Pocs/Cats. By the way, .06 so far here today in Wantage this Monday afternoon.

Lake Hsrmony I have 0.32" melted w.e. and 1.0" snow.

A little incomplete recap. I've attached the 2 day rainfall (last image) and the snowfall via CoCoRahs. If they don't report everyday, then it doesn't get added into the two day, or if there are seemingly errors, as may have occurred in ne CT, you see the oddity. You have some of the guidance previously to check against. My guess on the outcome from initial thread 6 days ago (based on ensembles). Move this upper air system about 100 miles west southwest from the Fri evening position and we'd have been in business here. Still QPF 1-2" CT, e 80% of LI down to less than 1/2" most of NJ/ne PA and w of the Hudson in se NYS. Snowfall of about 1/2- 1" Poconos ], 1-3" nw CT (not seen in the two day CoCORAHS because of missing Saturday reports). BOX has a nice report that helps fill in some of the data, inclusive of 50+MPH winds Cape Cod. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=box&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

Lake Harmony about 0.7" at least, Cobb 1/4-1/2" soldi cover. More coming. I see nw CT nice 1-3" so far. iso 6" out of area in ne CT.

snowed and sacculated (try again-accumulated edit 747P) this morning higher terrain Pocs... certainly at 2000 feet exit 8 I84.

Sun in Wantage NJ and 0.28", mainly 2-550P.

The upper air closed low development has probably ended up further east than ensembled a few days ago, resulting in shifting 1+" qpf and snowfall further east. I think it gets a little convective late today-this evening as cooling aloft arrives. NWS probs for 1+inch of snow are low in the I84 corridor so it's possible this modeling is also far too generous for accums: especially the HRRX (top). The SPC HREF might be a little closer and tends to mirror some of the HRRR and EC/EPS while the GEFS has very little in our area. I84 corridor only. Wet snow CT/MA, and maybe a few flakes and slightest covering high terrain POCS, high Point NJ? The storm will develop a bit further east than anticipated a few days ago. Results in greatest potential for accumulative wet snow in northern CT and MA high terrain. Occasionally heavy rain there should change to wet snow overnight and accumulate maybe up to an inch in the valleys and possibly 4+ inches high terrain of northern CT; 'possibly' 6+ inches high terrain west and central MA. Boston may see some wet snow Fri afternoon and night with 'possible' accumulations, especially near route 128. Meanwhile the POCS and nw NJ should see bands of showers this afternoon and evening, then 'possible' spotty minor snow showers Friday with any minor possible accumulations reserved for elevations above 1500 feet. A couple of maps attached that show potential snowfall from this storm. These amounts are probably exaggerated by several inches but you can see the terrain related. I don't think I'll be updating at all today, prior to 9P, if then. Have a day.

553P/12: South of I80 and also all of LI: probably no snow except possibly a short period of wet snow, melting on contact Friday. For the interior suburbs, especially elevations nw to ne of NYC, this could become a problem wet snow impacting power, and for those with heart conditions - safe removal of the water loaded accumulations. Shovels and plows may be of value in the hilly areas Friday morning,. Banding is likely to occur Thursday night-Friday in the northwest sector of the upper low that will enhance precipitation rates in some areas. EPS 850MB easterly inflow as of the 12z/12 cycle was twice that of the GEFS, Therefore, the ensemble snowfall yield from the GEFS is minimal - under 1" while the attached EPS is considerably more. It's too early to be overly confident of 6+" of wet snow, in parts of the extreme nw part of the forum, but certainly possible. IF 6" were to occur at 33F, I'd be thinking of power outages by 9AM Friday. Snow water ratio's may be less than the 10 to 1 used by the ensembles. It should be noted that the WPC Monday outlook for 3+" of snow is only spotty 10% chance in the Catskills. I think this is largely based on the GEFS. Still marginal temps and a breakdown in the 850MB inflow to a weaker GEFS solution would nix the risk of heavier snow. The bulk of any snow should accumulate during Thursday night, lingering into Friday with possibly a second batch of trailer heavier snowfall in the wraparound band Friday evening, especially CT/MA high terrain. As the snowfall rates lessen during midday Friday and afternoon, it could change back to rain. It is an interesting situation and not unheard of. Even last May 9 we had accumulative snow in some of the suburbs, so I don't think of this as a new normal. In summary: Looks interesting for the hilly areas northwest to northeast of NYC. How much and is it worthy of a thread, we'll know in 5 days. I'll be following the NAM/GFS positive snow depth change... that to me becomes the minimum to look for, once it is consistently established from cycle to cycle. And of course, Kuchera and NWS products. Small chance gusty winds 40-45KT e LI Friday?. Meanwhile, LI/CT/se NYS, ne PA should pick up a general melted combined rain/snow of 1-2", iso 3"?

Wantage, NJ 1.05. so far.

I will get a thread started by 715pm. Need to check some guidance. Big amounts possible northwest quad of the closer low in the deformation zone. Banding of a moist unstable lapse rate. Am on the road and won’t have checked anything close til 7p. Want to see the N latch on and then use the positive snow depth change as base amount. If it indeed is 6+ 33F wet snow power outages would occur. Anyway, something to look at

Good Monday morning all, This part of Wantage NJ, 0.88 as of 450A. I see some of the heaviest appears NYC nwwd along the NYS/NJ border with 1+ so far, and plenty more to come with the inverted trough and slowly sewd departing low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast. That rain ending toward 12z Tuesday. Not threading the nor'easter potent elevation snow event for Thu-Fri, til at least this evening. Could yield a period of non accumulating snow all the way to the coast Friday morning but marginal BL temps could leave it all rain except above 1000 feet. GEFS still not responding to the GFS op, so while I like the EC idea, with banding well nw of the Low aloft, prefer to more carefully review after my work day is complete. This could also yield 45 kt wind gusts parts of LI, tho modeling is overall signaling 40 kt max. QPF should be a general 1-3" depending on duration with 3" max probably isolated. You'll know more much sooner than I. Fun to speculate. I like the track of ensembled 500 LOW, hopefully it goes another 30 MI south for our forum but it's not too shabby. Have a good day.

0.63 so far in this part of Wantage NJ. Made the correction to my intended 330PM message (suburban). now checking further...fwiw.. all very minor, but WPC has spotty 10% chance of 3+" of snow in the Catskills by 12z Friday.

What am seeing is increasing EC op wintry look, tho EPS I thought was a little ahead of GEFS on snow acc. If it’s still on the models tomorrow with 4 inches suburban elevations, would thread. Nothing today from myself on this. For auburn to suburban at 452, after returning to better vision at home. aging... glad I got here. don't rush it.