wdrag

Ype... It's doing well n CT, MA, se NYS, extreme nw NJ and ne pA. Hope you're right beyond th 18th. One thing I like about this... through the 16th ... soooo cold to start the events.

Must have forgotten to post the CoCoRAHS 8A. Busy here prepping a little PPT. 2.5" at 1150A in Wantage NJ and moderate snow 1/2SM variable 3/4 S-. 24F

CoCoRaHS reports as of 8A attached. Not too bad a start. Looks tough for NYC but not impossible. Lets watch upstream developments.

fwiw... back to pretty decent snow here in far nw NJ after a 1 hour hiatus. Also, not sure if anyone noticed...06z GGEM is heaving snow up o I84 corridor late Wed-early Thu (LI/NYC for sure) before suppressing for 24 hours. Definitely snow acc coming early Thursday... and do not count out the WAA pulses. I saw the suppressed 06z EC but with a a pulse of WAA i think its pretty easy to snow to I84, just a 6-12 hour period Thu morning. 12z NAM/RGEM will tell more, whether suppressed as currently or edging back north. Hang on... numerous grazes and in the axis...which is which for each event. It is downright gorgeous here this morning... 20.8F. They didn't bother plowing some of the neighborhoods this morning.

Will rereview late today. A +EPO i dont think is instant change? Is it? I think it suggests a trend. Butting up against a -block might be favorable for events. I don't know the details of the oscillations. I just use tham as considerations on impacts. I do agree with you on at least one moderate event in the subforum (not counting todays along I84). I think the one on-going up here will be underestimated in CT/MA. Just when the next? and is it cold enough for I78-LI south. I sort of think so but have to blend the models. NO QUESTION: A lot of opportunities through the 18th. What sticks? Ensembles have accumulations even LI.

Wantage NJ 4sw 745A 2.0" snowing steady and 18.5F. Beautiful refresher.

Wantage NJ 1.4" at 650A. Continues steady snow here 17F.

Wantage NJ - this part, 6A report 1 inch. Continues steady densely packed small flake snow at a T of 17.

547A Tuesday the 9th: Complex and seems to be trending a little warmer so that LI and s of I78 are problematic on much snowfall, with snow/ice mostly nw of I95. Could even have events change briefly to rain over the interior of the subforum. How they evolve...uncertainty. I still think something on Valentines Day and then 1 or two events 16th-18th. Ensembles favor mostly the 16th-18th and give the subforum snowfall especially nw NJ but the trend on amounts is somewhat less. Am cautious since some of the blocking may be relaxing. CFS is comparatively warm and wet and that's bothersome but am unsure how accurate CFS is. For now considering it another member and have to mention this option. All could turn out a little snowier close to NYC but for now, that is not a lock.

538A Tuesday the 9th update: Modeling has trended south and remained south, so far, so that our subforum is on the northern fringes of events on the 11th and 12th, and have no idea of the 13th. Modeling is varied but overall depressed. Dropped the 1/2-1" qpf from the title and just riding out. Doesn't seem like much except s of I78 where a few inches of snow may occur, with an inch or so possible the rest of the subforum south of I84. Probably nil far northern CT. Still a delicate balance of short waves moving east-northeast in a fast flow with WAA just to our south. So not giving up completely but the heavier potential from the 00z/6-7 cycles has shifted south.

520A update: OKX snow forecast remains the same this morning. Small chance NYC record 1/2" of snow...southern part of LI should have less snow than than the north Otherwise forecast looks fairly close from yesterday. Not sure if nw NJ can exceed 3"? I think best chance spotty max 5-6" is I84 or northward, high terrain Catskills to northern CT high terrain. Take whatever we can get. Hope NYC can muster some measurable snow early this morning around sunrise or shortly after.

This part of Wantage NJ 0.6" at 515A with densely packed small flake snow. 17/12.

Ditto Vernon NJ 0.1" here in this part of Wantage. 19F

No changes this evening from me to any of the thread presentations: 9, 11-13, 14-18. New OBS topic started for the 9th.

528A update: OKX snow forecast remains the same this morning. Small chance NYC record 1/2" of snow...southern part of LI should have less snow than than the north. Otherwise forecast looks fairly close from yesterday. Not sure if nw NJ can exceed 3"? I think best chance spotty max 5-6" is I84 or northward, high terrain Catskills to northern CT high terrain. Take whatever we can get. Hope NYC can muster some measurable snow early this morning around sunrise or shortly after. Snow begins 2A-5A west of the Hudson River to the Poconos and Catskills; then thereafter across CT by 730AM. NYC snow at daybreak may accumulate 1/2-1" before quitting and/or changing to rain midday then may end briefly as snow toward sunset. The snow over nw NJ through se NYS and CT may accumulate as much as 6 inches in a few high terrain spots but most of the snow fall should be in the range of 3-5" there. South of I-78 in NJ, to I-I95 a period of snow tomorrow morning may change to freezing rain or rain before tapering off in the afternoon with Trace to 2" accumulations. Untreated roads along and south of I-80 and LI may be briefly slushy in the morning before melting begins. Hilly area untreated secondary roads to the nw to n and ne of NYC will be a bit slippery at times. Snow, especially during the morning commute could result in some accidents and travel delays, especially hill towns. There might be a few school districts in the hilly areas with in-person classes that may close at the last minute, especially se NYS and far nw NJ. Graphics are the OKX snow forecast and the chance of greater than 1" as issued at 330PM.

1155AM: CoCORAHS maps added for rough final analysis of the event: CT/MA only 1 day, but the NJ/PA/LI two day since some reports in NJ/PA occurred both days. CP 4.5". Also snow depth normal via NOHRSC. Shows a nice positive w-e axis along or n of 40N (I-80ish) Iowa east to NYS/NJ and the water equivalent that we want to check either the 15th or 18th. Good to have water storage in snow but let it go out slow in spring. Right now a solid 1-3" across the forum.

Agreed... especially with little melting. Once this is done, hopefully it goes out slow, not with 3" of rain in March/April. Will try to add SWE. NOHRSC seems to be inconsistently up on connectivity.

EXCELLLENT... better presentation than mine and comprehensive. Thanks.

Agreed. Overall multi model as I interpret: AO/NAO negative for the next 2 weeks at least I think and so the EPO going positive to me indicates bigger clashes of warm air trying to get into our area, eventually... not immediately upon the EPO change to +. That could be after the 18th but am not considering anything beyond the 18th till we get through this week.

Just need to take one at a time. Modeling has depressed a bit the past overnight cycle, and then the GFS op went warm and wet 16th-17th. This will iron out.

The purpose of the data was to look only at FEB ranking of snowfalls. There was probably a better way for me to focus on Feb, but that was simplest-fastest for me. This is valid for FEB only.

Tuesday the 9th: Hazardous snowfall of 2-5" for the entire I84 corridor. Mostly the daylight hours but starts ne PA/nw NJ 3A-6A; CT-MA 7A-9A. Will melt on treated roads but caution advised hills and secondarys. Heaviest NORTH of I84, especially northern CT where ~4" common. Expect 1-3" here in northern NJ possibly down to Easton PA as well. Could be a little ice I80 southward too. Plan for possible travel slowdowns. NYC-LI--- looks like snow to start but melts during the late morning afternoon and may change to rain? My take is 1/2" NYC but uncertain. I just worry about melting-like yesterday when probably more fell than the 4.5 recorded but melted-compacted due to urban heat. WPC probs issued early this morning for 1 and 4". Use-rely as you prefer. It's going to snow, even NYC but how much NYC-LI and central NJ??

Good Monday morning everyone - Feb 8! Will you become snow weary pretty soon? Appears a fair amount of wintry elements are coming the next 10 days: Tuesday the 9th, Thu-Fri 11th-12th, Valentines Day (14th as a reminder) and sometime between the 16th-18th. I think minimum 2" NYC by 6PM Valentines evening. Safest driest travel days entire ne USA east of the Appalachians are today, Wednesday the 10th before 6PM, maybe the 13th? and probably Monday the 15th. The rest, be aware and plan safe travel with at least extra time allotted if the forecast for your travel day is confidently snowy. I will parse this overview out into the threads, but this holds til I get there. Focus below is the I84-I95 corridors. Tuesday the 9th: Hazardous snowfall of 2-5" for the entire I84 corridor. Mostly the daylight hours but starts ne PA/nw NJ 3A-6A; CT-MA 7A-9A. Will melt on treated roads but caution advised hills and secondarys. Heaviest NORTH of I84, especially northern CT-MA where ~4" common. Expect 1-3" here in northern NJ possibly down to Easton PA as well. Could be a little ice I80 southward too. Plan for possible travel slowdowns. NYC-LI--- looks like snow to start but melts during the late morning afternoon and may change to rain? My take is 1/2" NYC but uncertain. I just worry about melting-like yesterday when probably more fell than the 4a.5 recorded but melted-compacted due to urban heat. Thursday-Friday the 11th-12th: Periods of snow especially PA/NJ with less certainty northern CT. My initial expectation from Baltimore northward is anywhere from 2-10" total by 11PM the 12th. Best chance of large accumulations I80 southward but who gets what?? Does look like travel problems at times, especially if the first part develops near midnight Thursday morning (or late Wednesday evening the 10th). Snow accums may only be 2" Philly to Baltimore because of freezing rain/sleet? That would place best axis of accumulative snow somewhere down across central NJ. Lots of uncertainty on details. The 10" may be high but it was initial impression yesterday and I don't drop that unless it's clearly not happening. Ensembles suggest decent snowfall and modeling may yet trend back north? This should bring NYC 1-2" for starters. Think the NAM/RGEM will be helpful on trends. No GFSv16 available (to my knowledge). Valentines Day: looks like a snow event for the I84 corridor. For a start: 1-4" maybe even NYC. NAEFS is cold! Pretty cold the morning the 15th with either wind chill near 15 below I84 corridor or widespread temps down to zero or colder I84 corridor (not that cold urban centers). Tue-Thu 16th-18th: more snow and ice coming I80 region northward. Saw the warmer GFS op but other modeling including NAEFS look colder. Graphics added: the chance of 1" or more of snow Tuesday. Pretty high chance in the orange colors. Chance of 4" or more is much less on Tuesday but graphic gives the idea along and north of I84. Also the chance of 3"+ snow on Thursday the 11th. The axis of the greens and blues are the most important... shows best chance for adverse snowfall. 623A/8

Will update thoughts on the multiple threads by 8A, and post CoCoRAHS maps around 930A and start a new OBS topic for 3A-6P Tuesday (messy LI-i78 south). Nothing for me past the 18th. My initial thinking by the time Valentines Evening is done...minimum 2" new NYC and go up from there inside of I95. Uncertainty-Reasonings will follow in the threads with nothing bombastic coming but just annoying (for some) multiple additional snowfalls.

Duo has a pair. MKC has to limit penalties. This game could be different. Anyway, Brady and Gronk are pro's. We'll see what happens. An injury could be crucial.