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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Hi! Been off line most of the day and back in full early tomorrow. Not much for me to argue... I've no changes to my earlier thinking. In the end it will do what it wants and hopefully I learn from this. I add two NWS ensemble probability graphics from late today which i think are telling. Note the gradient near NYC on prob >8" so Yes, an easy foot expected in my eyes, but ensembles say don't go all in... since it's on the gradient...30 miles may make a difference between 8 and 20"? Still the jackpot of 25-30" if it occurs, which i think it will, probably somewhere n of I78 in ne PA, northern NJ and se NYS-Catskills region. No changes on my concerns about wet snow damage near I95, and coastal flooding, wind gusts 45-55 MPH tomorrow afternoon-eve I95 corridor to the coasts. Have a good night.
  2. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point.. 0.3" 16F since the flurries began at 135P and intensified a bit around 4.
  3. wdrag
    Not starting a thread yet for Feb 5-8, but it looks sort of interesting to me with a short spurt of very cold air arriving from the west atop a deep snow cover. Maybe we finally get below 14F NYC? Could be one or two short and light wintry events in our area, especially w-n of NYC. In the meantime, there was some talk about the NAM going away. NOT til at least 2023 when the NAM, HRRR, SREF get subsumed or replaced in other FV3 core upgrades. This from NCEP and a recent presentation.
  4. wdrag
    SB Wantage (this part) around 135P. just flurries right now. 18.3/5.2 t/td.
  5. wdrag
    se flow 850 mb lift - waa... helps. It's spurt. Looks nice.
  6. wdrag
    Don't tear your rotator cuff... hope you have a plowing service or snow blower (multi times to keep up with 3 hour half foot accumulation in some areas).
  7. wdrag
    This is a dangerous life threatening storm. See the purples in the WSSI posted earlier...also that does not take into account coastal flooding, especially the Monday evening high tide cycles when access may not be possible for 4-6 hours (2-3 either side of hi tide).
  8. wdrag
    Got to accumulations and change to snow, zr etc and watch your end time, Lots of flex in the menu. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb
  9. wdrag
    Yes...i can see 1 foot JFK/LGA CP...easily but somewhere I need to throw caution to the wind of 50-55 MPH there. how do we measure?
  10. wdrag
    I just have to go with probabilistic. IF the GFSV16 wins, I learn... but too many models now mixing to NYC. Rgem even has sleet into Middlesex county tomorrow morning for a time. My guess this storm is going to knock out power to at least 100, 000 customers. Some of our posters may suffer with this, either no comms, or home damage. This to me is a storm that administrators need to pause life for 12-18 hours tomorrow and then allow for late night cleanup and declare snow emergencies. Just my take. If the 12z models back off, then they can save the embarrassment but as I see it, this is a worthy consideration. FIRST responders are going to need access to places to save lives. Did I say dangerous? While wind probably stays under 70 MPH on LI, it's still quite a storm. IF temp at CP can stay under 33F Monday night, then we're good for much more than a foot NYC. I cannot confidently say to media and whomever, that that is the prevailing. You can give them that 18-20" option but broadcast probable. A foot will make many happy, i think. I
  11. wdrag
    Please go with what you think. 06z/31 EC still has it going to rain between 00z-03z/2 but by that time the damage done on LI/NYC. Will be close for NYC but the dry slot is not good for continuous snow at marginal ice nuclei temps aloft (need -7-8C in the > 70% RH column to allow for snow). This is for LI, so without cirrus seeding it looks difficult for me to see all snow NYC. This may change, but, as a forecaster, I need to take into account probabilistic forecasts... There's only an updated 60-70% chance of 8+ in NYC. I can see a foot in NYC by 7P Monday, maybe a touch more. Then whatever happens NYC after 7P, I've no answer tho I think mostly mixed or rain till it goes back to snow late Tuesday. Go with what you think is best. Hope that helps understand my considerations. Latest 06z/31 GGEM snowfall. Impressive! 06z/31 EC 10 to 1 snow ratio snowfall for NYC attached as well. Just enjoy whatever.
  12. wdrag
    Snow begins in spurts this afternoon-evening NJ and ne PA and reaches NY and se NYS LI 9PM -3AM and CT 4A-8A Monday. Heaviest continuous snowfall Monday LI/NJ/nePA, but the heaviest delays til Monday afternoon-night in CT. Power outages should become numerous Monday afternoon-evening ne NJ/se NYS/southern CT and all of LI. Coastal flooding for 3 successive high tide cycles beginning late morning-midday Monday with the worst moderate to major flooding possible with the late Monday night high tide cycle. Starter graphic is the snow depth as of Sunday morning 7AM.
  13. wdrag
    Good Sunday morning everyone, Jan 31. Major near blizzard Nor'easter coming. I would not plan on driving anywhere on Monday in northern NJ, ne PA, se NYS and ditto CT Monday afternoon-night, MA Monday night. NYC my guess is a foot, possibly more before mixed Monday night. Otherwise, amounts between 1-2 feet from I78 northward with lesser 8-18 inches CT and MA where rain/sleet invades later Monday night. Isolated 30" possible nw NJ, or ne PA into the Catskills by the time this storm ends early Wednesday.. Drifts 3-4 feet. Power outages possible Monday afternoon and night from northern NJ northeastward to CT and Boston from a combination of heavy wetter (heart attack for the hear tcondition vulnerable) snow and northeast wind gusts of 40-55 MPH. Snow starts central NJ around 3 PM, northern NJ-ne PA 6-10P, CT around dawn Monday. Worst of the storm NJ/PA sunrise Monday-midnight Monday night, CT Monday afternoon-night. Coastal flooding may be major near the midnight Monday high tide cycle? Follow NWS. 1) SPC HREF snowfall ensemble 24 hours ending 7P Monday, may be conservative. 2) Winter Storm Severity Index issued 4am 3) NWS forecast snowfall not updated yet beyond 3AM. I will replace the snow graphic by 7AM with their 5AM updated version. 6A/31. NWS Ensemble prob for 8+ and 18+ issued at 430AM
  14. wdrag
    Haven't delved into the ratios. You're probably right. I saw there nam banding signal and I like the persistence for se NYS/ne PA/nw NJ Subtle but good.
  15. wdrag
    Stats: I think they run much better algorithms including snow ratios and thermal processes. Thats why the prob >8" NYC is only about 70% . Not surprised. This is not the best set up. The best setup is a more circular upper low and parked s of LI...not drifting north across New England. A very good snowfall and nothing to complain about unless you want 20" for LI. Could happen but i don't think so... which means I'm going against the soon to be implemented heavier GFSv16, for which i've no experience. Someone will probably remind me of this statement if on Wednesday LI had 20", after which I'll be a champion of the V16. I could be wrong but when the max qpf axis is 1.5" or greater, it usually isn't all snow unless you can guarantee the cold THROUGHOUT. Not easy. We'll have a better snowstorm situation for LI within the next few years, I would think.
  16. wdrag
    Check this: Probably some on here look at all the parts that make up this forecast but the SREF has allays been forecasting max near and n of I80. We shall see. This is just another way to look at potential and it's far from perfect and seems to slowly 12 hour acscums. But from what I've seen, 3 successive cycles its not too keen on >6" I95 sewd. I like the idea of 6 inch NYC CP, possibly a foot but am conservative because of dry slot and the shape of the 500 low... and NWS probs for 8" -- very good but not a lock statistically. Still, enjoy every bit of snow we get.
  17. wdrag
    This is the NWS Blend of Models---differs from the local NWS interoffice collaborated forecast (posted earlier in this thread around 627P) and basically a statistical use of the guidance output. This from the 18z cycle. This may be the way the NWS is going in the future. Right now it serves as a baseline for some of the NWS product grids, whereby forecasters modify this guidance per additional model input and forecaster collaboration. Early next week I hope to have more info on the timing of the departure of the NAM/HRRR etc in lieu of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). Some suggestion not for two more years.
  18. wdrag
    Hi: Delayed Interesting guidance herein. 1) 18z GGEM op... snowfall. Max near ABE. in MM. Looks like 20" 2) 00z GGEM op... snowfall. Max near ABE. in MM Looks like 20" 3) Prob of 8" our the next 72 hrs. NYC sitting on about 70% chance. See legend for probs your area. 4) Prob of 18"...bullseye west of Harrisburg so my thinking of Poconos could be very much too far north? I'm still going with that but use your best judgement. 5) NWS 4PM collaborated snowfall only through 7PM Tuesday, 6) NWS 4PM Storm Severity index which takes into account snow load, wind, snowfall etc. 7) Potential Allentown top 20 two - day snow storm? XMACIS evaluation attached. If this is wrong, please let me know. Thanks! I śaw the GFSv16 holding onto 10-24" I78 through LI. Could be right but I am trusting the NWS probs and thinking that eventually modeling will shift a little more north but, jury out. This not only could be power outage snow but also heart attack snow, especially in areas where snow is mostly 31-33F and water equiv over 1.5" I don't think traveling I80-I78 PA/NJ into w LI is a good idea and anticipate many cancels. Check back tomorrow and will begin the OBS thread at that time with baselined snow depth to start. Have a good night.
  19. wdrag
    Heres some SPC HREF from the 12z run showing snowfall (ensembled and not guaranteed but something to consider) by sunrise Monday. I also added the 48 hr mean precip type. These are all subject to error but an idea. Finally the snow depth as analyzed-modeled at 14z/today.
  20. wdrag
    Hi! Will post NWS collaborated snowfall for the PA/NYS/NJ area and hopefully by that time I have an updated NWS ensemble prob of >12" of snow for 72 hours and some SREF probs. It's going to be a nice front end thump for LI. I see models continue edging north and I think they will continue to do so into the 12z/31 cycle and then it's almost here. It definitely begins mid -late Sunday afternoon central NJ, then to NYC-MPO ~ midnight and pummels Monday, probably mostly afternoon-eve. Then the dreaded dry slot LI eastward, tho could be overcome by new IR leafs of WAA which would help change rain back to snow on LI (if my read of rain is correct there on LI???which is debatable). My opinion from op NAM and EC (I don't have any confirmation date yet on the NAM being replaced by the FV3 based UFS and I don't see any SCN, so I presume its' going to be later than March 2021). Anyway from the NAM and EC OP IR and 12z/30 EPS 60 knot ene inflow stagnated over the ne corner of PA, and better snow ratios there, I could be VERY WRONG but I think the 20 to maybe low chance 25" bullseye (or one of?) will be ne NE PA Poconos where best lift. Here's the EC op IR that tells me somewhere upslope region in the Poconos to near BGM or Catskills, will be the eventual bullseye of 20-25" powder. Drifts to 3 or 4 feet. Pummel for 12-18 hours Monday afternoon-night there, under or the east side of the edge of the IR from this 12z/30 operational EC IR projection This lift and favored area is supported by 60KT of ene inflow at 850 MB over southern New England and temps in the Poconos mostly 20-27F. I think modeling currently favors a little to the se of my projected. Use your best judgement. Hopefully in sequence: EC IR 18z/1, 00z/2, 06z/2; dayshift WPC D1-3 qpf with 1.5" NYC area, example EPS inflow at 850MB. Thats lot of moisture transport in weakening 700 MB flow-slower moving once it gets in there; also the 12z/30 EPS snowfall (includes sleet/mix as 10 to 1 so am a little cautious se side of this, and can see boosting the nw side with higher drier fluffier wind blown snow ratios). Strongest wind gusts interior 30-40 MPH late Monday afternoon-evening, while 50+MPH in the probably warning for LI (snow to periods of rain/mix?).
  21. wdrag
    NWS severity index through 00z/2 and their snowfall forecast through 00z/2. NWS
  22. wdrag
    Original Posted Monday at 08:11 AM Jan 25. Del 615AM Saturday: Imperfect probably messy big snowstorm is coming, imperfect in that modeling the past 24 hours is drifting north and suggesting a dry slot late Monday will allow enough warming for sleet (rain LI) to I80 including all of I95 Monday night so that the stratiform burst of 1-2"/hr Heavy snow during Monday, especially afternoon, becomes bands of snow in the interior late Monday night-Tuesday, some areas probably recovering Tuesday with several hours of no precip. So, my own single forecaster point of failure but use of ensembles could be too pessimistic about the sleet/rain intrusion. For NYC... I'll start with 6" with possibly as much 1/2" late 31. Hope that its mostly snow after 00z/2 but even if, snow ratios may be down to 7 or 8 to 1?? I dont' want to cap NYC since am uncertain about dry slot. Sleet/rain/freezing rain may be getting involved Philly to Toms River during Monday morning. There may be a period of near blizzard conditions on LI centered Monday afternoon? BUT, I don't want to call it a blizzard for fear of easily missing criteria. The point of this paragraph, is that I think Monday, especially afternoon should be the worst period of travel and if models continue this, in future cycles through Sunday morning, then I think it would be a recommended no travel for that 6-12 hour period to limit accidents and allow plows to maintain passable-less slippery conditions for first responders. Snow may be wet on LI/Monmouth-northern Ocean Counties in NJ if 6" at 32-33F, we would have power outages... still too early to be sure. CT I84... continue to notice some multimodeled lesser snowfall there, so while I think a big snow there, cautioning myself. Coastal flooding: see NWS statements/flood watches already posted and no change from yesterday with the late Monday evening high tide cycle most favored for flooding (within 2 hours either side of the time of high tide) Graphics are the 00z/30 EPS as a base amount, the 00z/30 EC IR prediction for 06z/Tue showing the dry slot penetration, and the NWS 09z/30 prob for 6" or more of snow by 12z Tues. That's the reasoning basis for this update.
  23. wdrag
    Been away for 5 hours. No change to headline tonight...my guess is that we're locking onto an 8-16" event somewhere between I95-i84 with banding and downslope valley shadows modifying amounts. Usually where the max qpf is where mix/rain intrudes. My guess is we'll see a mix to I95 but I could be too far northwest on that, which benefits all our LI/PA/NJ big snowstorm folks. For now, I suspect somewhat lower amounts NORTH of I84 but reserve the right to change... Yes I could see pockets ~20" but that's with 24 hours snow and no sleet. Not confident enough to make any thread headline adjustments. Here's from WPC this afternoon. Will revisit around 615A
  24. wdrag
    I don't plan on any thread headline upgrades til at least 5P (I'll be offline 1230-4P). Prefer to see the multitude of 12z/29 model solutions/ensembles. No matter the lesser reliability of the NAM after 60 hours and debate on transfer and thence further northward or more eastward development, and the process quite sensitive to the confluence latitude to our north, I am heartened that it is this far north.
  25. wdrag
    Saw EPS 06z ensemble lows...slightly deeper and maybe slightly closer but still southeastward to the BM. Insignificant change? Attached: GGEM op 06z version qpf in MM for snow/sleet/rain. Continues to look promising but with the EPS uncertainty. GEM op by 1P Monday nearly a foot vicinity ABE.
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