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fwiw... EC starting to sit on a similar Monday-Tuesday event for this next weekend in our area, including similar event snowfalls... which if the EC is correct will offer spotty 2 feet in a part of west or northwest OHIO. One event at a time... I want to see how this works out here on Monday before starting something for next weekend.

Should know more tomorrow morning... guidance continues to punch us up Monday as the system just about reaches max intensity in its passage through our area. Some of the SPC short range guidance now has mean gusts ORF area 12z Monday 40-45 MPH really seeped rapidly northeast and intensify. Not much else to add for now, except the EC is going for quite a substantial snow event (8+") north and west OHIO, then eventually on Tuesday to a lesser extent, spreading in its dying embers, across northeast OHIO into nw PA.

If this 12z/28 image at 54 hours verifies... going to be a 1-2 hour deluge in NYC... most of the rain for this event might occur in this transitory very strong FGEN somewhere between Noon ish and 3P. Also, the opportunity for wind gust turnover-transfer.

1135A post: FOUS is down, favoring e CT/se New England with best bashing of wind gusts... however, R# at LGA to about 930 MB all afternoon and NAM 3k 50KT down to about 960MB suggests to me, that if we get short lines of convection as modeled by the 12z/28 3K NAM ripping ne along I95 at 45-50 kt from Philly area, that we will have wind damage in and near NYC, eastward and northeastward. Again... if modeling weakens then this will have been a brief windy dousing. As of now, I continue to expect everything outlined in the topic and previously. Tomorrow morning we should have more guidance that I'm looking for but is only short term. May post again around 5P...otherwise for sure tomorrow morning 7A.

Good morning. The lower level jet is strongest along the coast (often the case) and transfer may be diminished by the the isothermal or even inverted sounding in the lowest 2000 feet. HOWEVER, if there is a meso low on this front as it crosses PA/NJ... that will induce 50+ gusts northward into NYS. The EC transfer is a little less the past several cycles than previous but still says 45-50 MPH gusts for NYS ne PA. So, the collaborated max gusts as offered are a good start for a conservative message. I see PHI raised the Poconos in comparison to nearby offices and that should be a good move. Spreaking for myself only, I'm a high ender preparer.... I look for the big problem. Doesn't always work out. I factor in SVR gust potential and raising the guidance so EM's etc knew my-our thinking of potential and imo, I think this is better preparation visually. I just don't like being caught flatfooted. Preparation imo, is very important for poise, provided those advance messages are reliably correct-no 50 50 chance of being right every time issued. Thanks for your post. I may be away from the forum at times today-decorating but will try to update forenoon or late this afternoon.

Good Saturday morning everyone, Soon we'll be coming into guidance that should more accurate gauge the chances of the upcoming reality. I'll be looking for FOUS BL winds of 28 KT at PHL and 30 KT at LGA for a likelihood of wind event occurrence (damaging wind). If the NAM is less than that, it may be a typical wind advisory event-except for thunderstorms that could easily cause damage. OKX early Saturday HWO now has 50-70 MPH wind gust mentioned for LI. SPC D3 appended below... marginal risk into NJ but not LI IF a line of thunderstorms does materialize, I think we're going to have a substantial event. Modeling continues to favor some thunder... marginal instability-sbcape and high shear with 70-75 KT modeled at 850 MB for LI, forenoon Monday through the afternoon by all models, except the weaker GFS. The Nov 15 event looked stronger to me... i worry about transfer of 50kt+ winds down from 925 MB. Richardson # says it will happen, the sounding to me looks a little isothermal, so no guarantee. I'd prepare for scattered power outages NJ coast-LI-CT Monday afternoon-evening. We'll have more tools to use by late tonight to help ascertain to confidence. This following statement could be overdone, especially if 00z-06z GFS verifies, but my guess is grid displayed "minor" power outages Monday into Tuesday from NC to our forum area and even back to Ohio/nw PA where wet snow acscums of 6+" occurs in a few areas. Note also: a chance of flurries or a slight covering of snow Tuesday in the distant nw suburbs (ne PA, extreme nw NJ, se NYS, nw CT hills) as the trough axis moves east over us Tuesday afternoon...and I'm suspicious of a dry Tuesday. I could see minor widespread 0.1-0.3" QPF in our forum Tuesday, in addition to the WPC Monday forecast now available (WPC has us in marginal risk excessive Monday) Added this mornings D3 SPC discussion, and 00z/28 GEFS wind probabilities for gusts over 50 MPH..and this I think is conservative. The NAM is stronger. ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA/COASTAL GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes appear possible on Monday from parts of Florida and coastal Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic... A large-scale upper trough should evolve into a closed low over the Midwest/OH Valley and central Appalachians on Monday. A mid-level vorticity maximum embedded within this upper trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic through Monday afternoon. A deep surface low should likewise develop northeastward in tandem with this vorticity maximum. A cold front trailing from this surface low will likely sweep eastward across much of the FL Peninsula and the East Coast through the day. A warm front extending northeastward from the surface low will probably make some northward progress across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Monday afternoon as well. A line of low-topped showers/storms along or just ahead of the cold front should be ongoing at the start of the period from near the surface low in WV/western VA southward to northern FL. Although instability may remain modest across most of the warm sector ahead of this line, generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints should be enough to support weak surface-based instability through the day. A very strong (50-60+ kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet should be present over the central/eastern Carolinas and southern VA Monday morning, and this feature is forecast to shift northward across the Mid-Atlantic through the day. Given the strength of the low-level flow and sufficient, albeit weak, forecast instability, strong to damaging winds may occur with storms that either persist along the cold front or develop ahead of it over the open warm sector. A couple tornadoes also appear possible, mainly across parts of eastern SC/NC/VA to the Delmarva Peninsula and perhaps NJ in associated with the low-level jet and potentially greater low-level moisture and instability. Even so, there is too much uncertainty regarding sufficient destabilization to include higher severe probabilities for now. Farther south, low-level convergence along the cold front and deep-layer shear are both forecast to be somewhat weaker across coastal GA and the FL Peninsula. Still, there may be isolated strong/gusty winds with any storms through Monday afternoon.

First, I want to thank all the posters insights on modeling from LR to climate stats. Very helpful perspectives and I learn from this. Thank you! On Dec 4-6: No topic since considerable uncertainty ranges from 00z-06z OP runs of major snowstorms from the the Missouri Valley to the northeast USA and/or all rain. And the 850MB inflow is not as strong as that of this coming Monday, but broader and longer-which serves well for heavy precip event. I root for the 06z GFS op... but... its D9-10, not in my window of confidence. GEFS RMOP has a positive tilt trough over the eastern USA with uncertainty, while it is categorically confident of the 500MB ridge axised n-s ~115W. The one change in my thinking from previous days... a decent storm event is coming between Dec 4-6. What it is?

Good Friday morning everyone with interest for Monday-Tuesday, No change in topic as originally outlined. This event will probably be a little less wind impact than that of Nov 15 (a little ess speed shear-less wind 850 MB) but still be significant for some of us. HSLC continues to be my concern with 45-50kt of wind at 950MB, 70-80 kt at 850MB during Monday afternoon, sfc dew points probably rising to ~60. Models already grabbing about 45-50kt of wind at LGA via NAM/GFS R# at 18z Monday with maximum wind poised for LI/CT for 3P-9P, a little sooner NJ coast. Interior can still get a burst of damaging wind but that is less confidently outlooked due to a possible isothermal-inversion in the boundary layer sounding n of I80?? GFS has no sfc cape, EC minimal Sfc Cape. EC KI mid 30s and lightning still advertised. Wind gusts 45-55MPH with isolated G60-65 MPH possible. Rainfall: see WPC. Since this is mainly an 8-16 hour event, doubt if we can reach 5" unless the front slows it's eastward progress Monday evening, which is possible, since the sfc low will probably have reached it's max intensity in PA (992MB?) by that time and a lot of energy is driving north instead of east. If the front were to slow, then the extreme east portion of the area would be vulnerable to approaching the 5"- but not likely right now. Power outages: While not expected to be generally as much as Nov 15... still expecting power outages. On the grid Minor or moderate event. Snow: slightest chance western high terrain suburbs later Tuesday as the trough axis slides eastward? Power outage snow possible for a few parts of central Indiana into northern-western OH Monday afternoon if GFS/EC and ensembled modeled snow at 32F turns out correct. I didn't spend much time on the Ohio valley. As we get to Saturday--- monitoring 3K NAM winds/R# as well as the FOUS BL winds at LGA will be helpful and of course local NWS offices statements... and SPC/WPC guidance. For me, the main focus is HSLC convective wind event Monday afternoon -evening. Wish you a super day! 651A/27

651PM Thanksgiving eve update: No change to topic except I think the system is running 6 hours faster than when originally posted... seemingly favoring worst of the wind Noon-9PM Monday. Will reevalute Friday morning. fwiw... the GEFS now has 75% chance of 50+ MPH gusts Montauk. That's larger than I saw in the GEFS for the 15th. Have a good night.

Wont be commenting on this thread til after 530P. Still looks good to me based on some of the 12z op modeling. EC is my focus late today,. Happy Thanksgiving---

60F in Wantage abd p/.s. 0.38 total.

We shall see what happens.... so far this fall longer range modeling considerations in the 6-10 day period (per topics) have been pretty good. For the storm early next week... see the measure of predictability. Notice the high prob reds on 500 MB trough axis etc. Quite impressive. Doesn't look as confidently stated at 72 hours (before) not after the storm mid week.,

Just too early for me... but I think just a wee bit less for us on LI but I see widespread minor or worse power outages Monday Ohio Valley-east coast... provided the EC continues with it's closing scenario and 80kt 850 MB inflow Delmarva northward to LI. That would occupy lots of utilities. W Reality check... I always worry talking so much confidence so far in advance... something can always go very wrong. My confidence stems from large scale ensembles, and recent modeling track record 6-10 days in advance.

agreed and closer than yesterdays 12z cycle. still concerned about dominance of Mondays storm... recovery. However, interesting that the GFS and CMC continue on it...CMC GGEM in fact sooooo far west, keeping us warm again. Interesting times with transitioning teleconnections. See blue wave below.

agreed on all .. at least the southern stream is cold and active. No one in the media talking about a high impact event in OHIO-MI early next week. Sort of surprised... maybe I'm reading this wrong?

Wantage NJ near the tippy top of nw NJ 0.34 so far. drizzle continues.

Can't promise but the little line near Allentown at this time may strengthen across NYC around 11A? 12z Modeling doesn't seem to capture this so i could be wrong but relying more on 06z HRDPS.

Interesting morning midday LI/CT... possible gusts 35-45 MPH in a couple of showers/isolated thunderstorm. Sounding not quite unstable enough lower 1000 feet for better transfer. I expect isolated thunderstorms to develop LI/CT before this ends from west to east midday-early afternoon.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Grateful to participate here in good health! Hopefully all who view this feel good as well. No change in the topic outlined. A decent HSLC severe weather event appears to coming with the storm maximizing its potential as it goes to our west Monday night-Tuesday morning. EC continues very consistent and other modeling is gradually joining. I think there is a pretty good chance of a widespread severe weather event into the Delmarva s NJ and probably reaching us Monday night, then on the wane to our northeast Tuesday morning as the primary storm weakens. In our forum, scattered uproots and power outage damage seems to be continually focused on NJ-LI-CT but no one is out of the picture. This morning's rains helps soften the ground a bit, especially I95 corridor eastward. Added this mornings SPC outlook. Weaker GFS 06z/26 lower wind profile graphic added for LGA plus the R#. Solid red near 00z/1 (7P MON) should be able to grab the seflow of 50-55 KT near 975MB in turbulent turnover-transfer. Pressure over our area will be less than 1000MB so the FOUS BL wind should be good for sustained. Model soundings offer shower-storm movement of about 200 degrees near 50 kt Monday evening. Not quite as intense on the GFS as the 11/15 event. EC is stronger. Just have to wait and see if the EC lessens its impact. For now its' still 50-60 MPH Gusts for an hour or two Monday evening with 850 winds around 80KT... slightly stronger than the GFS. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... It appears increasingly probable that a closed upper low over the southern Plains will merge with a northern-stream upper trough over the eastern CONUS on Day 4/Sunday, likely forming a highly amplified upper trough/low by Day 5/Monday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement in depicting a deepening surface low developing from coastal LA Sunday morning northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity by Day 5/Monday. As greater low-level Gulf moisture advances inland across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic in tandem with the deepening surface low, weak instability may develop across the warm sector of this cyclone. Rapidly strengthening low and mid-level wind fields suggest that organized severe storms capable of producing at least isolated damaging winds may occur over parts of the Deep South into the Carolinas on Day 4/Sunday, and from the Carolinas into eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Monday. At this point, it remains very uncertain how much surface-based instability will ultimately develop across these regions, which will have a large impact on overall severe potential. This uncertainty precludes the introduction of 15% severe probabilities for now. However, the severe potential for this system will be reevaluated in later outlook updates. Once the cold front associated with this cyclone clears the East Coast, severe thunderstorm potential appears minimal across the CONUS on Day 6/Tuesday and Day 7/Wednesday. ..Gleason.. 11/26/2020

Noticed a CoCoRAHS smattering of Trace's in the forum area, presuming mostly rain early this morning.

Very very unlikely thru 12z-Dec 1.

Good Wednesday afternoon, No change in the oriented topic. 12z /25 modeling: ICON now back on board. It and the op EC-UK-GGEM all have 70-80 kt 850 MB southerly inflow to LI late Monday. GFS now up to 50kt but in two waves of se inflow. Ec OP rudimentary gust predictor has increased a bit, showing near 65MPH gust potential. WPC qpf has increased each of the past two forecast cycles since yesterdays origination...now with widespread 2-4". WPC also has a 996MB or lower sfc low nw PA 12z/Tue. We're still 5-6 days away. Phasing no guarantee but looking likely. If the energy is split, like the 12z/25 GFS, then inflow and big qpf continues but less chance to exceed 50MPH gusts (reducing risk for more than isolated power outages) 12z/25 GEFS ens checked but this discussion has not yet seen NAEFS and EPS from the 12z cycle. I don't anticipate much difference through Dec 2. May not comment again til Thanksgiving morning. Plan for a fairly high impact event. Later,

Just a note... I see the EC and GGEM op runs from 00z/25 are favoring another event for our area around the 4th-5th. Have my doubts if the first storm around Dec 1 is big. Too soon too recover except for a CFP. EPS has not much hint, though-some, and GEFS is all nw flow at 850MB after Dec 1 for a week. Instead we may need to think about Dec 8-9. That looks a little more promising to me, including a weeks recovery time. However, I hope for nw suburbs folks, to be wrong about Dec 4-5.

Good Wednesday morning nw-ne suburbs! Monticello metar had a flurry around 1 AM. Unsure if anyone up there had an ice pellet or snow flurry overnight but my attention has shifted to early next week and maybe the 8th-9th, all on the main NYC forum.