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Here's a 1215PM data update...certainly not all encompassing. mesonets from NYS and NJ for max gusts today, power outages... generally minor but significant. 43 MPH at my home in Wantage around 1033AM. Seems to be slowly decreasing here. On the power outage map... note Oklahoma... I think thats the ice storm impact from the middle of last week. The wind advisory LSR report I'm sure will be much more complete at 6PM. May not post again til mid or late afternoon,

Max gusts 40 its or greater past hr or so from FSU MOE survey. Plenty on the island 46-52 MPH. Excellent OKX-PHI wind advisory. KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KADW: Camp Springs / Andrews AFB, MD, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KBID: Block Island, Block Island State Airport, RI, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KCDW: Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KDCA: Reagan National Airport, DC, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KHFD: Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] KILG: Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s] KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KJYO: Leesburg / Godfrey, VA, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KMDT: Harrisburg, Harrisburg Intl Arpt, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KMIV: Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KRDG: Reading, Reading Regional Airport, PA, United States [46kt, 24m/s] KRSP: Campd David, MD, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

Wind doing well in the city... here's todays NYS mesonet max wind gust map as of 945A. No new LSR reports out of OKX yet but undoubtedly there has to be some problems. NJ has 8300 customers out, and in addition my counties electric cooperative has 110 customers out. Multiply customers x 2.5 and you have an idea of the total # of people without power. So there are wind advisory impacts this morning. NY and PA have more out, a bit higher in the power grid minor category.

Gusts recently 47 MPH Queens, and higher terrain nw NJ. Power outages increasing NJ, PA, NYS. In the area I live, terrain above me. My max so far at 708A 37 MPH.I've not checked LSR's but undoubtedly there will have to be some trees/limbs/wires down.

Nothing new to report as of 720AM... all gusts below 45 MPH at this time in our area, at this time and no new LSR reports this morning, so far. Closest 50MPH since 630 am is Camp David MD. Coverings of new snow are occurring this morning on the high terrain west and north of NYC.

On the wind: Not much change from yesterday. To reach 40KT or greater (46 MPH), it's going to have to occur this morning between between now and Noon. Winds decrease significantly mid-late afternoon except the north shore of LI and LI eastern tip where near 46 MPH gusts may occur through 6PM, and even reoccur near dawn Tuesday. The 00z/2 EC ticked up slightly from yesterday... the HRRR, HRRRX and NAM profiles look the same as yesterday. Strongest winds should occur on the ridges where I think 50-55MPH will be occurring this morning. Catskill 'highest' peaks may be even stronger this afternoon. Be alert for moving debris, especially this morning. Cars, if outside, best parked safely and legally, away from trees. Snow: I84 high terrain a smattering of slight accumulation here and there this morning and again early Tuesday. Flurry risk almost to NYC this morning prior to 10AM, and again tomorrow morning 5-10AM. 505A/2

Quick early morning update with graphics of max gusts NYS, NJ, and local storm reports from last evening's frontal passage. Power outage map as well...all updated as of 410A. Power outages have decreased in PA since last evenings burst. Note all the power outages across the south...ZETA and ice storm from 4-5 days ago. Will review weather by 530A.

More current max wind updates. LGA recently 38 kt. Added NYS mesonet, NJ CLI net and LSR reports into NNJ. Probably my last report of this evening unless wind wakes me. 802P/1

I did not expect these reports in e PA late this Sunday afternoon, generally prior to 6P, and may have been associated just after the passage of the line of heavy showers. Here's a view of Local Storm Reports and max gusts NYS mesonet. NJ Max gusts not yet available. 711P/1

Per this afternoons NWS issuance of a wind advisory for Monday, have split the difference in the timing to keep it simple for our AMWX NYC forum. Confidence is somewhat less than yesterday to see more than isolated 46MPH advisory criteria reports and associated power outages from downed tree limbs, aided by many trees still partially leaved. Appears best chance for downward transfer of 45-max 60 MPH gusts is 6A-Noon, especially ne PA and I84 ridges through se NYS and CT in CAA with a gradual decrease in wind probable during mid and late afternoon. E tip of LI may also be more prone to gusts past 46MPH aided by the warm surrounding SST's. Positives are the Richardson # briefly "nearly" solid 0.25 (red) to 825MB and the associated steepest lapse rate with a decent nw flow gradient between deepening near 980MB low pressure in the Maritimes and 1035MB high pressure to our southwest. in the lower Mississippi Valley. Negatives: My experience that the FOUS displayed synoptic scale BL wind needs to equal or exceed 27kt on the coastal plain (LGA so far is modeled to be hovering with a max of BL wind of ~25-26kt), and a lack of strong pressure rises-subsidence-rapidly rising sfc based LI. Even the Richardson # is starting to show breaks. 12z/1 SPC HREF, 12z HRRRX, 18z HRRR and and 12z EC gusts seem predominately below 46 MPH, except the ridges. Added graphics to this topic a couple of 3KM NAM 18z/1 LGA time section graphics for Monday (Richardson #, Temperature and wind and RH tsections)... and a 3K NAM 18z/1 modeled sounding focused on 16z.

I didn't have the heart to start a wind topic for tomorrow. Just doesn't look quite strong enough to me, but I could be wrong. IF OKX/PHI start a wind advisory in our area, I'd add a topic but am not quite as keen on this being scattered 45+MPH except ridges and maybe the eastern tip of LI. Not much has changed in the modeling as far as I can tell from the 00z-06z/1 cycle. If power outages, then I would expect those to be mostly in the forested higher terrain, mainly between 7AM and 2 PM.

I like the idea of a few flurries around Monday morning - whether NYC CP ASOS sees--doubtful. Measurable on some of the I84 high terrain likely. mPing. Wind gusts Monday more commonly 35-40 MPH with isolated 50 MPH and a few associated power outages. Not quite convened we'll grab up to 825MB at 15z-16z Monday to transfer 45-50kt... so have not started a topic. Richardson # and timing of cold core passage at that time look favorable but NAM3k sounding looks like it's not quite as steep above 9000MB and so am hesitant to topic what might not be much of a damage event. Maybe guidance will change my mind late today... or if OKX issues a wind advisory, then I'll topic. For now, I think the best chance of damaging wind Monday morning is to the west and north of NYC. fwiw... late this afternoon, there might be an isolated gust 45 MPH e LI in showers. I did see the secondary line crossing the interior late today but not much wind flagged there...at least not yet. Maybe some hail? At 7A EST, have added this mean gust graphic in MPH from the SPC HREF. Not as impressive as I'd like to see. This is for 15z Monday (10AM).

FWIW: mixing forced turnover is currently modeled up to 850 MB Monday... Not commenting on anything for a topic til tonight.

A question: IFFFF ASOS sees a snowflake in CP Monday or Tuesday morning, will that qualify for shortest period? ?? AM tied up with lots of at home stuff so no starter post yet, but thinking of a damaging wind-power outage 50MPH wind gust post for the forum 15z-22z Monday. Just need more time. Am pretty sure we'll see some of this Monday (75% certainty on my part-hasty checks are my uncertainty). I do think scattered coatings of snow for parts of the higher I84 terrain Monday and possibly Tuesday morning with scattered snow showers. That too at least 75% certainty.

Good info impressions shared by all on Zeta. Kudos to Moderately Unstable for the observations stated in paragraph 1 of the Tuesday evening (p4) post. I didn't look at any Zeta posts midday Wednesday onward as the cat was out of the bag ,so to speak. Have attached this mornings remnant per outages... rather large 3-4 days after traversing the southeast USA. I also admit the ICON October 23 early missed assessment of cyclone phase in the central Gulf. A cycle or two later, all that was remedied by the multiple models while still hanging out toward the Yucatan.

Snowfall map attached for the event...should be pretty close. Some low temp maps from NJ and NYS this morning. Also two day water equivalent for our area. Max wind gust per spartan mesonet on LI was 40 and not shown. Minor coastal flooding occurred (possibly almost moderate in a few spots). My assessment is the NAM modeling for CAA changing rain to snow (and sleet southern edge) was the best. It also via previously forum advance posted temperature TSection had the 32F in NYC (big bust for GFS MOS). Overall EC was pretty consistent from the longer range on snowfall and NYC low temp and associated suburbs hard freeze. The GFS-P had a rather early but a bit too robust snow and storm signal for Friday morning. My tiny sample guess is the para will help improve the current GFS here in our area. Finally the Zeta 3-4 days later remnant power outages in the se USA, as of mid Saturday morning.

Max snowfalls in se NYS, ne PA and nw NJ were elevation dependent. Tomorrow I'll try and post a wrap up snowfall analysis. My guesstimate is, if you were above ~ 1000 feet elevation you had 1+" (n of I80). There is a massive LSR post... I'll show the locations of all the snow reports in our area... the more widespread 1-6" reports were N of I84 in w Ct, NYS. ...SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New Jersey... ...Morris County... Jefferson Twp 0.8 in 1120 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Sussex County... 4 NNE Frankford Twp 2.5 in 1226 PM 10/30 Public 1 ENE Sparta 2.5 in 1145 AM 10/30 Public High Point 2.4 in 1005 AM 10/30 Public Sparta 0.6 in 0940 AM 10/30 Public Lafayette Twp 0.5 in 1130 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter 4 SW Wantage 0.3 in 0930 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Warren County... 1 NE Allamuchy-Panther Valle 0.2 in 1059 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Pennsylvania... ...Carbon County... 2 SSE Penn Forest Reservoir 0.6 in 1109 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Monroe County... Mount Pocono 0.9 in 1025 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter Long Pond 0.3 in 0952 AM 10/30 Public && LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... New Fairfield 2.0 130 PM 10/30 Trained Spotter Shelton 0.6 1100 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter Bridgeport T 100 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer ...New Haven County... Hamden 0.7 130 PM 10/30 Trained Spotter 3 NNW Wallingford Ce 0.1 700 AM 10/30 CoCoRaHS Guilford T 257 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer NEW JERSEY ...Passaic County... 1 SE Newfoundland T 800 AM 10/30 Charlotteburg COOP NEW YORK ...Orange County... Monroe 1.5 1145 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Suffolk County... Stony Brook T 1219 PM 10/30 NWS Employee Mount Sinai T 1230 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer Upton T 200 PM 10/30 NWS Office ...Westchester County... Katonah 0.2 900 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter

No. The low there in CP prior to 4P was 38 at 1031AM. CP is tough... snowed and sleeted around parts of the 5 boroughs.

Good morning again, Wantage NJ at this elevation of 740'MSL went back too mostly rain around 930A. I noticed 2.4" at High Point NJ and have added a few LSR mapped reports. Mostly 1-3" NYS, and generally 1/2" ne PA and nw NJ, so far. Looks like NYC may escape recording snow today? I've also been in touch with mets at NCEP and they tend to agree: GFSv16 (parallel) evaluation that its overall synoptic performance in the medium range is superior to v15, and part of that improvement is due to being somewhat less progressive. Also they are aware of the NAM's generally superior performance on CAA rain to snow transition. This may be my last post for this event (final at this location in Wantage NJ 0.03"), until tonight or tomorrows wrap. Even if the prelim outlook by both our forum long rangers and NWS is for a generally mild winter supporting below normal snowfall, we can hope for an Atypical winter, expanding the higher than normal snowfall portion of the sample size. Have a good one.

Thanks to all for all your observation updates... This part of Wantage NJ 0.3" continues to snow but smaller flakes. Roads wet.

Wantage NJ as of 815A... 0.1" First measurable snow last year was Nov 12.

Excellent detail on elevated view

I checked CoCoRAHS snowfall and so far nothing exceeding the previous LSR post from ALY. I've added Two day rainfall (so far)-. Gives an idea of the beneficial rainfall. Definitely accumulating ne PA and I suspect now in extreme nw Sussex County NJ. All snow here in the part of Wantage but no big deal, except it's first and early. Noted the near 4 to near 5" of rain so far just s of Ocean County NJ.

EARLY snow reports to ALB... attached basically 1-3"

mPing has you see rain-snow mix near Hackensack NJ just behind the transition of the radar bright band (seeing greater reflectivity because of very wet snowflakes aloft). I have to say this... NAM by far the best on showing the change this far south. Any disagreement please post here. In the long range leading up to this... I think there GFS-PARA had the right idea tho too robust. My point on this... the GFS para i think has a chance to be helpful since I suspect it handles the BL temp better.