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Have posted on the tropical page regarding what should be a big ocean storm near Bermuda. Impact here probably only swells of 5-6 feet s LI NJ coast around the 23rd-24th.

Am not giving up on Caribbean Sea development around the 25th--- possibly now delayed 3-4 days for what appears to be a large named storm near Bermuda developing this coming week ahead. Water temp anomaly continues weakly positive in the Caribbean genesis area and northward the se USA coast. Last weeks GFS modeling for that that storm has trended null for that date, but my feeling based on fewer but still strong GEFS 500 MB members, is that something is going to get going there between the 25th-28th. Magnitude unknown and maybe just minor. In the meantime: Bermuda- soon to be named Epsilon, seems to be gaining support for a significant ocean storm in the Atlantic vicinity just E and N of Bermuda. Interaction with the Atlantic ridge seems to be forcing a little more w-nw displacement since we looked 24 hours ago, too far off the coast for direct E coast impact, but swells of 5- 6 feet will probably be (typo corrected 1227P) arriving LI s coast by 23rd-24th. This per 00z-06z weaker GFS-GEFS model guidance suggestions, from the still seemingly conservative GFS. WH near Bermuda should be exceeding 12 feet by the 23rd (graphic attached). I have checked Tropical Cyclone Phase (Robert Hart's page) on a number of models excluding the EC... it's modeled warm core. First I need to know we have a named storm and then monitor ridge adjustment to the north of it's eventual nnw-ne recurve.

Not considering a topic for the 25th-27th for at least the next 2-5 days, till the tropics get sorted out, and the eastern USA currently modeled positive tilt trough sharpens, which it may not. We in the NYC forum appear to be in a baroclinic zone that last week of October. Just need to wait out all the model variations for a few days til a more likely model-derived consensus idea of future reality becomes apparent.

Had some help from there tropical board and then did a check. Attached graphics have an answer... Post review in 2006 added a previously undocumented storm (#19). Wikipedia first pgh covers the late added storm

Hi! Been asked a question: Trying to save a little time... if someone here has an answer, could you reply. Thank you. 2005? Some sources have listed it as having 27 TS, others 28? Which is correct? Since there are 21 letters of the English alphabet used and the last storm that year was Zeta (6th letter of the Greek alphabet) wouldn't that mean there were 27 TS that year not 28? Walt

I "think" Epsilon gets named within 48 hours. Here's some prelim multi-model intensity guidance and EPS tracks. Bermuda area. I think this is the first publicly available non NHC specific ensemble= guidance. Use your best judgement. Last I checked today, Tropical Phase Cyclone guidance suggested warm core symmetric for this. Let's see what happens. No matter, I'm leaving any topic naming on this forum and all the tropical details of intensification/track/broadening coverage to our group participants, since I'm no tropical expert. I just like that the models have been onto this for quite awhile.

I think Epsilon may get named within 48 hrs. Am posting on tropical page a couple of graphics. It probably won't a direct influence on our area except for swells... however, its eventual development may strengthen the WAR, and provide an even more favorable flow pattern for the 25tth-26th? We'll see, Post goes up by 525PM, unless it's already done there by a tropics poster.

A fair amount of discussion about the 25th-26th... am considering a topic since it's amped with potential, but that this could still easily be a marine storm once past FL. I'd like to see more ensemble agreement on a storm up the coast, supported by 30% or greater prob for 2"+ along the E Coast. If that were to occur, it's probably a few days off but imo, little doubt (in my mind) the models are onto two more tropical systems 19th-26th in the W ATLC. One other thing...while most of the debate is about 1) whether a storm, and then 2) either out to sea or up the coast... I can visualize jet stream pattern adjustments that permit E GMEX and northward up the W side of Apps. Just very-very-very early.

0.20 Wantage NJ since around 3 or 4A, most of it after 10A.

NHC up to 60% on the Bermuda storm (Epsilon?) at 2P/16. This one apparently will probably stay out there vicinity Bermuda before taking off northeast after the 22nd?

EC is seeming to come aboard now with two storms... still lackluster on the FL storm but at least it admits something.

Just for fun: I've finally found the LR GEFS wave and wind forecast site for the Atlantic. Graphic below is for chance of wave heights above 12 feet around 10/25. This is accomplished without the 00z/16 OP contribution from (?Zeta? = Cuba-FL vicinity). Note the sw Atlantic. I checked Cyclone Phase Analysis and Forecasting for the Bermuda - Central Atlantic storm of 20-23... its warm core on all models. To me, that suggests a named storm eventually. Probs slowly coming up on the TWO. SST may be a little marginal in the initiation area but if it does slip southwest for a while, it may move over more favorable ocean heat. Also, SST continue a bit above normal se USA coast and e GMEX and anomaly is tending to depart positively a bit there.

Phasers are not easy... so fwiw... I like them but so easy for them to miss or come in pieces.

Remember Sandy? Different pattern but W VA mountains I think got hammered with 2 feet (EC had it several days in advance). Right now I need to go one step at a time... I want to see the Bermuda storm happen (only a hybrid? in stead of named event) and then we need something decent near FL by the 25th-26th. I do recall someone posting very recently about GFS physics being biased cold, later in its future forecast steps... so for now, I have to think of climo, cold biases and lack of phasing potential--- all not in our favor but it is a member of the collective ensemble.

At this distant view, I take more or less what the ensembles give me... and that yes... the TC of whatever sort bothers FL around the 25th-26th (could be west coast) but eventually heads ne along the SE USA coast and then too far s and e of us BUT, tropical systems also alter the upper air patterns---not exactly sure if it's the chicken or the egg- but I expect more ridging to develop in the W ATLC and more troughing near 80-85W and therefore an option for a coastal hugger up the E coast. For this situation, UNTIL i see no storm develop, or the trough remains as its now modeled-too much 240 degrees flow up here (instead potential 200 degrees flow)- I wont lose sight of that option. Let's see what evolves.

Good Friday morning everyone, I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27. Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to trend recently. If not, then no problem. 00z/16 NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical. Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 657A/16

Good Friday morning everyone, No topic for me on todays rainfall... helpful for sure. Am expecting basically 1/2 to 2" depending on repeat episodes of showers. Note impossible to see 2.5" but to me this is relatively normal. I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27. Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to show recently. If not, then no problem. NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical. Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 654A/16

8PM NHC post tonight... 00z/15 issuance. All very low probs so I'll defer to the eventual reality... something potentially to look at between the 19th-27th.

My final on this event: Here is CoCORAHS sampling (entire event). Not sure if anyone saw how much rain fell in Hartford County yesterday (Southington etc). I know Hartford is out of our area...but over 4.5" up there and so our area only has a documented max of around 4". Graphics are appended for verification purposes.

Good Wednesday morning... It's now 4 days since the GEFS was signaling two new TC's in the 17th-26. CAVEAT: I'm NOT-NOT A TROPICAL EXPERT. All i do is read the models-ensembles-trends, realize pattern recognition generally adds value and then use all the experts surrounding us (Including here and other forums) and go from there. I also try to account for the possibility of modeling expectations to fail---i.e. NO storms. That said... Whether a TC-hybrid comes up the E coast ???? timing timing timing with the primary trough reforming eastern USA next 2 weeks. What I'm 80-90% confident of is one, probably two Tropical Cyclones in the week of the 19th-26th in the tropical Atlantic (Epsilon, and Zeta). This was first developing as an option on the GEFS ~ Oct 10th 00z-06z cycle. The GGEM is now grabbing onto the first s of Bermuda around the 20th. The EC has something too, and in the operational cycle brings it nw to the se USA coast by the 24th. However the 00z/14 EC ensembles progress west and then have a difficult time figuring out two storms (one heading west toward FL, the other moving north from s of CUBA). The GEFS continues strong on the second storm and tracking uncertain. SST continue above normal near the FL coast (below normal near Bermuda and w GMEX due to prior storms upwelling). 00z/14 NAEFS has some idea but undefined right now... My "guess" is in a day or two, NHC TWO will latch onto the first disturbance heading w toward the region s of Bermuda- the latter TC disturbance may not be defined for another 5 days---? Experts should comment here on MJO favorability for the tropical 19th-26th?? (I'm also not an expert on the MJO impacts) I've submitted this for critique on the tropical forum looking for some contrary expertise. My take for my own use: If I had a choice--I'm not taking a cruise between Bermuda and Key West between the 19th-26th. I don't need to deal with the pitch and roll of a rough sea. (Did that on FAMFLOAT with the NWS back in the early 90s and it wasn't a TC--just a winter storm). 1115A/14

CAVEAT: I'm NOT-NOT A TROPICAL EXPERT. All i do is read the models-ensembles-trends, realize pattern recognition generally adds value and then use all the experts surrounding us(Including here and other forums) and go from there. I also try to account for the possibility of modeling expectations to fail---i.e. NO storms. That said... Whether it comes up the E coast ???? timing timing timing with the primary trough reforming eastern USA next 2 weeks. What I'm 80-90% confident of is one, probably two Tropical Cyclones in the week of the 19th-26th in the tropical Atlantic (Epsilon, and Zeta). This was first developing as an option on the GEFS ~ Oct 10th 00z-06z cycle. The GGEM is now grabbing onto the first s of Bermuda around the 20th. The EC has something too, and in the operational cycle rings it nw to the se USA coast by the 24th. However the 00z/14 EC ensembles progress west and then have a difficult time figuring out two storms (one heading west toward FL, the other moving north from s of CUBA). The GEFS continues strong on the second storm and tracking uncertain. SST continue above normal near the FL coast (below normal near Bermuda and w GMEX due to prior storms upwelling). 00z/14 NAEFS has some idea but undefined right now... My "guess" is in a day or two, NHC TWO will latch onto the first disturbance heading w toward the region s of Bermuda- the latter TC disturbance may not be defined for another 5 days---? Experts should comment here on MJO favorability for the tropical 19th-26th?? I will submit this for critique on the tropical forum and there could be some contrary expertise--- so this is my impression of expectations. My take for my own use: IF this applied and I had a choice--I'm not taking a cruise between Bermuda and Key West between the 19th-26th. 1107A/14

curious as to your final event amount late today-, thanks!

Wantage NJ at 2P..drizzle slowly ending. Total today 0.60, entire event total 1.07. Central Park event total 1.29" through 18z/13. Maps posted... two radar sensor combined analysis. The MARFC version looks more accurate, bit it too is running a little shy. The southern region radar analysis (second radar image) is definitely too low in coastal NJ. Also added NY MESONET totals as of 1PM, and then CoCoRAHS 2 day total through ~8A today. Tomorrow I'll add the 3 day CoCORAHS update. Bottom line many 3-4" reports Monmouth-Ocean Counties in NJ...solid 1-2" LI and most of NJ, 1/2-1" CT/se NYS except maybe extreme northwest edge of the forum a little less. Will add some probable final comments to this art about 215PM. Look back: this didn't work out too bad. We didn't bite quite as hard on 3-4.5" focusing south. Onset was delayed slightly (4 hours from projected), winds and temps were good. Updated wind concerns for early Tuesday were overdone.

Wantage...still quite rainy... 0.99 total now with more today, than yesterday... so far 0.52 today. Frankford Township just 7 miles away 1.69" Rain ended there. RGEM best model for the very short term... GFS/HRRR/ICON have been poor performers on the trailer across NJ se NYS.

Wantage now at 0.68" Still increasing. Minor but modeling was pretty good... overall.