wdrag

Excellent summary of stats above Don, and I like your odds in the next to last pgh, beyond Feb. That may mean keep your generators healthy (for the rural dependent). In the meantime: Have reviewed 25-26th. I think some snow will happen but possibly north of I80 and modeling is so divergent that not enough confidence on my part to produce a useful thread, yet. I like the GGEM onto this... NAVGEM not much, and remaining modeling is a mess, so far. NAEFS has a light event, possibly heavier s of I80. Will review late today, this weekend.

515A/19: Intermittent event continues and precip intensification gradually changes freezing rain/freezing drizzle sleet near I95 eastward to snow. Ending time still the same, this afternoon sometime ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS and the remainder sometime this evening-early tonight. Between 7AM-ending time, I expect a general base 1/2" new throughout the forum after 7am with possibly as much as 3" , the heaviest seeming to be near NYC into CT per a decent band developing this morning-midday, and possibly a nice hour of closing snow this evening. Easy melting process on pavement expected during the midday-afternoon hours where temps above 25F and when snow lessens it's intensity. Manageable but fun for us. I expect scattered flurries Saturday and maybe a narrow band of accumulative snow showers leaking southeastward out of the Catskills-Poconos into the forum per the trough aloft passage with a somewhat moist unstable column. Wantage 0.2" 4A-5A as intensity flake size has increased. 2.0 for now. 22.5F

Wantage NJ (the part). Only 0.4" compacted dense small flake snow since 730P. Total 1.8" (we had no accumulation during the predawn burst north of us on the 18th). That prior accumulation is attached and will be part of the 3 day event summary on Saturday. CP had no change after their 1P report yesterday (per the midnight CLI). 3.2" for the intermittent event, so far.

Wantage NJ (this part). A conservative 1.4" fine snow falling at the 730P report 22F. I think we should watch for IR enhancement seeding the deep moisture for larger flake and heavier snow rates. EC modeling has a pretty good baroclinic leaf developing e PA/NJ tomorrow morning. Without radar indication of precip, or satellite enhancement, then it's just small flake snow, I think.

Wantage NJ 4 1.3" and steady light snow at 530P 22F. rural streets snow covered.

NYC members, think we can muster 2 more inches between the 1PM ob today and 1PM tomorrow? If so, you-we'll be ranked #6 NYC snowiest Feb. 3" is probably asking too much?? Pretty soon we should erode the the sleet part of the NYC sounding (not necessarily at JFK) and go over to periods of snow, of varying intensity through 3PM Friday. Shoot me a notification of NYC amounts, if you think of it, as we cross 7P, midnight, 7A tomorrow NYC CP reports. I may not be online too much tonight. I am expecting another 3-5" here n Wantage by this tomorrow. Maybe I'm too bullish on this but unless flake size is tiny (which i doubt due to deep moisture and oncoming mid level vorticity)...we should have some plowable snow up here by morning. Bring to catch you all down there in CP. By this time tomorrow, we may see two bands of 6+, one where it is now down near I195 (south of I78) and one just to north of I80. Modeling sometimes does a very good job picking up bands. Let's wait it out and see if they were right. Later, Walt

Agreed: btw... I don't want to be too exuberant NYC east and south due to BL temp uwarmth ncertainty, but I do believe if NYC has a decent burst of precip prior to 15z/Monday, there will be slight snow accumulation in the city and I definitely agree nw NJ-Pocs newd along the I84 high terrain for 1-4" I have a lower bound of 1 to allow room for failure. It's possible the upper bound needs to be 5. PCS and high terrain nw NJ. It's an interesting system. So, let's ride it out. Has to be a morning event for snow acc in the city. Little question it's too warm during the mid and late Monday afternoon se of I84 for snow.

Not sure who said that? Only that the cold would soften (my own perception-word). We seem to be in battleground and the Nina base with lack of steadfast blocking to our north that may still yield consistently warmer than normal temps... however, modeling keeps showing digging short waves through the northern tier and a warming southeastern USA. No big storms but little contributions of varying magnitude. Too early for mud season. Also, snowpack to our south may help keep temps down a degree or so from expected, especially interior radiation.

Pending the 00z/19 model cycle/ensembles inclusive of naefs, may begin a thread for a light to moderate wintry event for a portion of the NYC subforum the 25th-26th, that may garner more attention as we move past the messy long duration event in progress. This looks cold enough for snow north of I80, maybe even a bit to the south but modeling will adjust it's targeted latitude. Which way, north or south?

They do? I don't think they fall apart, just adjust latitude and ptype for the NY forum.

Wantage NJ (this part): 3PM report 0.9" all surfaces slippery, including some of the treated routes. 22.5. light snow as this is written, some of the flakes at times moderate sized.

Wantage NJ 1145A 0.5" 21F. Treated roads wet, untreated slippery. flurries began around 330A ended by 6A. steadier SB ~9A. 3/4s- now.

The way those ova look on a map. ~1115A/18

I see them from my house. You say Mahwah 1/2-1" earlier this morning?? wow. Flurries in Wantage

That is the OKX/PHI forecast., We'll see how it works out. Snow and slippery travel is coming to NYC-LI today.

And to dovetail, the regional look adds OKX etc.

Saw the 00z/18 EC OP and 06z/18 GFSv15 and to some extent the 06z/ v16 OP for a snow event NYC forum around the 26th. No thread planned from myself, till late today or tomorrow morning, to get a little bit of consistency and ensemble support.

Looks like some nice bands of potentially moderate snow are aimed toward the forum along and s of I78 to LI this morning. It's snow loading now (saturating down) but soon there should be some 1/2mi moderate snow falling near I195 and maybe I78.

330AM: Wantage NJ, at the nw tip of NJ We too flurries began here around 323A. 22.6/7.2 Notice from mPing snowing into s CT part of the forum as well. Notice NAM about 40% heavier on qpf NYC on its 06z cycle. Just getting up so no feel on what may have changed and is reliable via 00z-06z cycles but snow is at hand. Good news. 450AM: flurries continue. no acc. 21/15. Dewpoint increased 8F since 330A.

I did miss that (color coded) that OKX moved to an advisory only. That might be right despite their 7" forecast for NYC.

Nothing more I can add. I've shown the NWS forecast snowfall. You can see there is hesitancy in the NWS decision regarding the watch, which to me indicates, is it warnable because doubts either of mixed precip not quite reaching warnable criteria, or is the duration too long to meet an 8" snowfall criteria over 24 hours. Minimum snowfall of 3" looks good for the entire forum with a max over the entire event of 8 or 9". So, if it's all snow NYC, we pop to at least top 5 February snowfall at CP (presuming the NWS 7" forecast is within an inch or so). I just see potential for mixed precip to LI and most of NJ, and what about melting as it falls during the increasingly high sun angle midday Friday. Those answers I do not have but attempt to provide some wiggle room on outcomes. I hope it snows to the satisfaction of all members. For me here in Wantage NJ, I look for 5-9" but maybe this range will be too high? This may be the last I comment till tomorrow morning. Have at it.

515A/19: Intermittent event continues and precip intensification gradually changes freezing rain/freezing drizzle sleet near I95 eastward to snow. Ending time still the same, this afternoon sometime ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS and the remainder sometime this evening-early tonight. Between 7AM-ending time, I expect a general base 1/2" new throughout the forum after 7am with possibly as much as 3" , the heaviest seeming to be near NYC into CT per a decent band developing this morning-midday, and possibly a nice hour of closing snow this evening. Easy melting process on pavement expected during the midday-afternoon hours where temps above 25F and when snow lessens it's intensity. Manageable but fun for us. 450AM/18: overall no change in expectations. Might get started an hour or so slower but already flurries or steady light snow have occurred se NYS, ne PA, CT, far nw NJ. See latest NWS products and your own judgement. 548AM added the 4AM NWS regional snowfall expectation that went into their early morning products. An overall manageable 24-36 hour wintry precipitation episode will probably see snow change to a mixed bag in NJ/LI, with even a bit of rain possible for a time eastern LI and the NJ coast. Snow should begin in seNYS/NJ/NYC between 2AM and 7AM Thursday and by 9AM elsewhere. It should snow moderately for a time sometime between 9AM and 4PM Thursday before probably transitioning to mixed precipitation or even quitting for a time in NJ/LI toward Thursday evening. Precipitation may intensify again as it probably changes back to snow everywhere on Friday and then gradually ends from west to east during the afternoon, or early Friday night. Graphics are the 21z/17 NWS ensemble 48 hour prob for 8"+ of snow, 4"+, the 12z/17 SPC HREF snowfall ending 00z/19 = 7PM Thursday, the 5PM/17 actual NWS regional deterministic (approximate) snowfall forecast and the 21z/17 WPC ensemble prob of .01" freezing rain. Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Please contribute as needed.

That is the read... 26-27 and the first week of March. No topics yet, since it's mostly I84 but monitoring via the NAEFS. While the cold softens, and maybe we'll average a bit above normal, models are trending a bit colder the last week of Feb and first week of March, as far as i can tell. Snow pack lingers I84 corridor through at least the 24th from what I can tell.

554A: Topic headlines were adjusted from the original of ate last week to the snowier wintry solution. A burst of moderate to briefly heavy snow Thursday, begins lightly between midnight and 6AM Thursday much of the area, though it may delay a bit to the daylight hours north of I84. QPF etc has decreased since originally threaded. Modeling allows sleet/freezing rain to get involved near the Thursday evening rush hour and eventually back to manageable, possibly intermittent snow on Friday. Some modeling has a decent burst of snow Friday. ~Half a foot or more seems likely for much of the area with sleet/freezing rain (even maybe eventually even a bit of rain e LI) limiting the risk of 6" south of I78 and possibly LI as well. Graphics added are WPC 09z ensemble chance of 8"+, chance of .01 freezing rain for the periods indicated (note it's got higher probs southwest Harrisburg, but that would include earlier than the 48 hours shown) and the NWS regional snow forecast through 7PM Friday. OBS NOWCAST thread will post this evening.

Let's review the Feb 7 initial post. The title changed enroute (i think I had 14-18 for the event window 7+days in advance). Perspective on what our modeling was indicating follows. Initial post from 2/7 midday. Have included rain in the tags, because we're close to having rain ,at times, within the overall cold enough pattern for snow and Ice, mainly along and northwest of I95. QPF this 5 day period should be in the range of a general 0.5" minimum, to possibly a maximum ~1.5". How much falls as snow, ice, rain is unknown and debatable. Multiple ensembles offer plenty of snow in and to the west and north of our subforum. Favorable blocking for northeast snowfall appears to remain through this period, and well beyond. Am witnessing via modeling and reality, a balancing of the cold core from southwest Canada to the northern Plains and Great Lakes shooting off pieces into the northeast USA, then on into the north Atlantic. These reestablish-reinforce the blocking -NAO from northern Canada to Greenland, and, following each pulse of CAA that moves through our subforum, there is WAA ahead of the next short wave. So far, the cold core has not broken off in total, to change the pattern and so, the snow opportunities continue on and on. February is already off to a special start and we may be heading for a top 10 snowiest February (see attached February Central Park ranking and year). Will narrow the goal posts on these possibilities for this 5 day period as we draw closer. My most confident period of something significant-substantial is the 16th-17th, but I have to consider some of the modeling that likes Valentines Day for an event and also the 16th-17th, delayed a day til the 18th. What happened? A little bit of junk ice/flurries here and there the 14th (better ice the day before on the 13th along and se of I95, (that was our RIC ice storm). The primary event was the night of the 15th, morning of the 16th. It was generally ~0.4-1.25" of rain as far as I can tell, with rain and non hazardous spotty icing I95 corridor southeastward and ice northwest of that, with a busted heavy ice forecast for the northwest part of the forum. That bust I think in part was related to twice the reality qpf forecast (please see attached), not the temperatures. So in the middle of where the ICE was supposed to be thickest, the rainfall was significantly less. This happens. QPF modeling imperfect and I doubt if I can improve on banded qpf deviating from the models. Power outages and downed trees/wires occurred in parts of the Poconos northward, just outside the members in the northwest part of our area (see Monroe County reports). Experimental guidance such as the HPC HREF and HRRX can be too heavy on icing and were again or are displaced. The GFSV16 did a nice job on the FRAM ice expectation as did NAM temps and eventually RGEM temps. QPF's, not so good. And an event is coming the 18th. IF anyone has a better archive of RADAR qpf from DIX or OKX, please attach. Thanks much.