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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Good Wednesday morning all, Jan 6. Unless something highly unusual occurs, I've made my last update for this topic. This is a busted January 2 outlook that faded with model cycles only 24 hours after issuance, beginning around the 00z/3 cycle., blocked to our south and southeast.
  2. wdrag
    Have seen multiple model 12z/5 guidance including EPS/GEFS ensembles and basically all say not coming up, except the NAEFS which still has at least 1 member coming significantly west than the preponderance of global model guidance. I am stubborn on this, not giving up the option of at least a snow grazer just se of I95 for the 9th. Am out of the more studied group on this and will review others input, but usually you need to wait til about 72 hours prior to the event to be very-very sure of the 500 MB interactions on a somewhat sensitive uncertain northern-southern stream handoff... the idea of having good 00z/12z upper air data to go with the satellite/aircraft/radar/surface data inputs. Since we're still on the 5th, I think I'll finally know for sure, whether this system will drop off my interest by 3PM Wednesday. Right now, it cannot come unorth into the NYC forum per virtually all guidance and that has to be the way it's played. Still, i hear media saying 10 days or more of no events... very difficult for me to believe that 1/8-9, 12ish, miss. NAEFS has both missing n of I84. So, I'm being patient on a potent system, and probably erroneously giving too much consideration for a more northwest track than modeled through the 12z/5 cycle. I would think that if that northwest track were to occur, it would be more evident in some of the 00Z-12z/6 modeling.
  3. wdrag
    Good Tuesday morning Jan 5: Update of the topic dropped the 8th, and dropped the tag of ice. The preponderance of 00z/06z January 5 2021 guidance favors a miss for this developing mid Atlantic coast nor'easter and so my Jan 1 confidence is probably wrongly over confident for an 8-9 day outlook. However, we're still at 96 hours (4 days) with somewhat delicate northern-southern stream trough interactions in the northeast USA Friday and Saturday. Some of the guidance has minor amounts of precipitation skimming the NJ coast/e LI with ensembles interestingly showing a little more extensive minor qpf coverage for southern New England. That New England coverage may be due to the eventual development of an upper level low over central or southern New England on Saturday (light wind), and a possibility for a period of easterly flow aloft , caused by the flow interactions of the modeled offshore storm and the northern stream short wave in New England. So it would not surprise to see some light or very light snow on the coasts into CT/MA but for now--- please go with your take on the event. I can't push this occurrence in the face of all the recent 3 days of modeling. We're still 96 hours in advance of the storms passage and once in a while models make significant adjustments in somewhat uncertain northern -southern stream interactions.
  4. wdrag
    Wantage NJ: 0.1" snow (fine). 32.4/32.2 some pavement just wet. fine-small snowflakes continue at 4A 1/5/21
  5. wdrag
    Results of the event, which was basically 830A/3-6A/4...various start times. The worst appears to be have been centered near 6-7PM. Had sleet/glaze freezing drizzle in nw NJ and ne PA. First 3 are CoCoRAHS and the last image is the NWS LSR map of posted reports. Note that WPC guidance didn't seem to handle the 08z/3 2"+ and especially 4"+ probabilities very well in the Poconos and Catskills.
  6. wdrag
    Agreed north of the MD border, but UK stable s of there. The following is said without 12z/GEFS, EC, EPS: I am biased to this coming up but the preponderance of evidence as everyone is saying, is southeast of NYC forum or a grazer central NJ, e tip LI. I think this Hatteras storm will deepen NNE before turning east or east northeast out to sea and i think that's what the UK is trying to say, with a northern pivot point axis near DC/BWI. I don't like all the far south scenarios with the craziness of the ne USA upper air. Just takes a little more sharpening and rather than proceeding out to sea, the coastal would impact the forum. So, I have not at all conceded that this is out to sea and harmless for the NYC forum. Maybe tomorrow or Wednesday i will have to. For now, I think it continues worthy to monitor. Let's see if any of the models have an uh-oh change in the next 24 hours. If not, then it's a bad read on my part.
  7. wdrag
    Mapped results of the 1/3-4/21 event: Results of the event, which was basically 830A/3-6A/4...various start times. The worst appears to be have been centered near 6-7PM/ Sunday the 3rd. Had sleet/glaze freezing drizzle in nw NJ and ne PA during the afternoon. First 3 are CoCoRAHS and the last image is the NWS LSR map of posted reports. Note that WPC guidance didn't seem to handle the 08z/3 2"+ and especially 4"+ probabilities very well in the Poconos and Catskills. Quote Edit
  8. wdrag
    May have a dusting to 1/2" Tuesday morning nw tip NJ, interior se NYS and ne PA.
  9. wdrag
    As noted previously, most of the modeling has our forum on the nw fringe of the storm, if anything at all. Models have a complex upper air pattern in the northeast USA, so the NC/VA's snow event-storm may yet come a little closer, dependent upon upper air interactions up here. As it stands now, the central NJ e tip of Li of our subforum would be grazed with minor amounts (rain or snow?). But the op UK even while having shifted se, is a current outlier solution for an event here. Just have to watch for trends in the 12z/4 and 00z/5 cycles. I definitely want to see the GGEM spread more than 0.1" qpf into our forum by the 00z/5 cycle and the GFS come back north.. NAEFS has us on the edge and I haven't seen much southward drift the past 00z/4 cycle. That leaves me staying with this outlook, til am assured we've been bypassed to the southeast.
  10. wdrag
    Will try to add a map of snow reports via CoCoRAHS around 11A. If there are any PNS's/LSR compiled totals issued after midnight this morning -- please add, if there is time.
  11. wdrag
    Wantage NJ... a number of 2-4" reports around here in the northern part of Sussex County-nw tip of NJ... I was 2.3". We'll wake up to a winter wonderland of snow covered trees etc and wet pavement. 32F.
  12. wdrag
    fwiw, you're supposed to use max snow depth for your snowfall, prior to compacting. So your 2" snow"fall" is accurate. Your snow depth now may be under 2".
  13. wdrag
    Where its yellow on the radar n of I80 nw Nj and se NYS..think thats S+ big flake snow. We just had 0.6" in 20 minutes..big flake. still pretty good snowfall rate now. for the day 1.3 with 1.1 on the ground now and it should snow most of the time here in this part of nw NJ through 1-4A. That should be my last report for a while. Regards all-thanks for your reports.
  14. wdrag
    NYC forum: for sure the se edge of the snow across nw NJ... hope it makes 2 or 3". The sleet nixed it. Event still a mess but not as snow productive as anticipated. Probably my last of this eve unless we spark some decent snowfall. It's pretty wet and densely packed. 31.5F Treated roads were just wet.
  15. wdrag
    Wantage NJ thin glaze and now sleet and a bit of snow mix. Quite an icy mess underfoot with a temp of 30.6F. I hear 2-3" at 2000 feet Mt Cobb PA exit 8 on I84 and snowing pretty hard. Use the positive snow depth or Ferrier for your assured snowfall tonight, wherever you are. The sleet has messed up the se edge here in nw NJ.
  16. wdrag
    Well... take it for what it's worth... EC 12z cycle is on our side (snow lovers). Expect 2-5" between 3P and 7A, most of it this evening but as others have noted with the 500MB-700-850MB trough aloft passing through, there could be a nice flake size event 1-3AM Monday, w of the CT River Hope the numbers attached in Kuchera come up a little for I84 e of HFD to vicinity ORH. Just keeps looking sort of dry there and so I can understand this via the transferring process. Definitely will need snow cleanup most of the forum i80 north and especially w of the CT River before proceeding with the day. Okay, as fwiw...Kuchera.. may or may not be a little on the high side. I can tell you the EC SD forecast increased for our forum on the southern edge, from the previous 00z/3 EC op forecast. So, it's all about short term now... Watch the radar. Radarscope subtle return nw NJ is probably freezing drizzle as at our home here in Wantage (30.7F). But soon as that lift in PA arrives, we go snow, maybe a little sleet too? 132P
  17. wdrag
    Wow! Elevation made quite a difference. I had 0.2" at 740' MSL.
  18. wdrag
    Not the best of news... but generally speaking, this is the 12z SPC HREF outlook through 7AM Monday. Just continues to look like a disappointment east and northeast of Hartford. This may be wrong but I have to account for the constancy of the signal. FWIW... the 00z/3 HREF missed the stripe of 1" down near RDG/ABE. So, it's not over but I think most of the decent action next 18 hours is w CT, westward and maybe North through east through sse of ORH. Meanwhile we may be impressed by snowfall rates in PA from near IPT to AVP and the Catskills later today.
  19. wdrag
    Fwiw: I caught up a little to minor snowfall that preceded the icing of 1/1/21 nighttime.
  20. wdrag
    some of the 1+" snow reports this morning... so far.
  21. wdrag
    Also added the Satellite loop to the OBS-NOWCAST page. It's coming, especially ne PA/nw NJ and se NYS into sw CT. Not encouraged by modeling vicinity I84 region e of Hartford to ORH. They may only get 1 or 2 "?
  22. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 4 św : 0.2" 935A-1015A. snów had diminished. 29.7 F. Treated roads wet. Even tho very little on radar, very light snow continues (snow made below the -12 to 18C saturated ideal dendritic zone). Track this area of lift moving eve from w PA on satellite... thats a way to witness what should unfold late today. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=13&length=24
  23. wdrag
    Look to development in central PA...that will expand east northeast become significant for much of forum late today-this eve.
  24. wdrag
    fwiw...snow and sleet has started I76 in se PA. Nice impressive radar signal this morning but that might be due to a bit of bright banding with mixed icy precipitation aloft.
  25. wdrag
    fwiw.. I like what's going on with the 11z temps... I see it as plenty cold for snow...a ne breeze with overcast skies and 29F here in Wantage of nw NJ. There will be a little +1C aloft that we'll have to clear out by tonight but that would be the sleet part in the I80-i95 region.
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