Jump to content

wdrag

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,409

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    2c worth... based on 12z/23 models and not necessarily looking at this correctly.. ICON is interesting. What is more interesting about the ICON is that Phase Diagram is opting turning to cold core over the central GMEX (attached). I think between the 25th and the 26th,,, whatever happens has to meander north to near FL where there seems to be more favorable SST, moisture, and possibly upper air pattern. Still looks like a small tight system but a couple of the hurricane models are offering 64kt at 925MB approaching or passing close to FL. I'm definitely interested in the phase diagrams-utility. For now the NAEFS suggests looking e and ne of FL but I see the Euro/ICON etc look more favorably upon central GMEX.
  2. wdrag
    .02 now at Wantage NJ from off and on drizzle this morning. Sun dimly visible as of 834A.
  3. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 0.01" mist-drizzle here this morning. Looks to me like mist at times here through Saturday morning...and clouds predominant through Wednesday with best chance for Partly-Mostly Sunny sky Sunday morning-midday. As for 1-3" rains early next week.... modeling quite uncertain so am less confident than yesterday, though the option is there.
  4. wdrag
    Zeta: later than sooner? Less clear to me on Bahamas tropical event per perusal 00z/23 multi model guidance. Invest has occurred and some intensity guidance goes for a TS but not many models and the TC Phase diagram is less likely, initially ~25th. Some guidance waits til the 27th in GMEX, and as per prior posts by others, the first week of Nov. I will say the NAEFS has something going northeast past Bermuda and i can see it vaguely in GFS/EC PWAT guidance for the 25th-26th FL east coast, east northeast or northeast from there. Many words not offering confidence on when-how-where Zeta evolves. Relying on NHC products. Have a good day.
  5. wdrag
    Mostly cloudy and mild through Saturday with drizzle fog overnights-mornings, again next Monday-Wednesday with periods of rain with potential 1-3" of rain IF repeat episodes of rain overlap---that is an unknown but pattern favors a quasi stationary boundary around here early next week as I view the model guidance along with pretty high PWAT of 1.5" or greater. In the meantime: Epsilon has made a name for itself and we should see pretty good swell along our Atlantic shores Friday, 6-7'.
  6. wdrag
    Zeta: ? My guess this has a 30-50% chance of forming... still warm sst. Minor (marghginal TS) event somewhere e coast Fl newd to near or west of Bermuda. Here's a modeling image. Several operational models show tight shallow warm core. Includes UK, RGEM, GGEM GFS, ICON, NAEFS implied (no JMA/EC). My guess it's a junk storm as some might call it, except if you're in it's marine path. Am monitoring models... definitely not what the GFS was calling for 10 days ago but something can yet emerge.
  7. wdrag
    Possible w phase of northern stream. Going to be a problem next 5 days at least
  8. wdrag
    Ships was highest early but consensus and experience probably tempered. Global models have been looking like a beast Fri-Sat. Have seen 95 KT at 850mb forecast. So yes all models way too low and way too slow. Walt 434pm
  9. wdrag
    Already 30+ foot seas north and east of center and by Friday. I expect this to increase (possibly 40 foot significant wave height) with EC gradient generated max WH at least 45 ft near the center and this could be conservative. Here's a picture of OPC analyzed wave heights at 8AM this morning based on ship/buoy reports etc.
  10. wdrag
    Epsilon impact here: First 14 second swells from Epsilon should be noticed tomorrow...building very slowly into Friday with a slightly shorter period then. Max WH modeled by the EC is 10 feet along our NYC forum Atlantic shore... that being the rarity...most of these long period swells ~ 6 - 7 feet.
  11. wdrag
    I've added this as NEW on the 06z/GEFS500MB run...notice several members closed circulation down near FL. There we zero members like this on the 00z/21 cycle. We'll see if the trend continues. I can't expand any further on this potential until this evening, at the earliest.
  12. wdrag
    A pretty good storm going now and won't be surprised at further intensification beyond 80KT. Still has surface SST's of 26C enroute at times through the 24th. Following NHC, RAL, AM WX contributions, as well as GEFS probabilistic guidance and the NWW3 operational guidance.
  13. wdrag
    Noticed that as well, but beyond 240 hours... I cant be very confident... but yes, GEFS has some members trying for a tropical event. For now, I want to be sure the 00z/21 models and tropical phase diagrams are wrong about the Bahamas vicinity event of the 25th-26th.
  14. wdrag
    Zeta: ??? Good Wednesday morning all w interest between FL-Bermuda 25th-27th. I saw the NHC dropped tropical potential overnight but 00z-06z/21 operational modeling suggests (multi models) that a shallow warm core tropical circulation will develop by the 25th vicinity-Cuba- east coast FL and head northeast or east-northeast. It probably won't be too deep vertically but I'm expecting something that may need to be named a small TS between the 25th-27th. I can easily be wrong, so no promises. I will admit I'm wrong as soon as modeling gives it up (again). 655A/21
  15. wdrag
    Good points on lapse rates-fuel. UKMET has been drilling this to the 940s for many cycles. That's one reason for the post. Going to be an impressive marine event.
  16. wdrag
    Made me smile... too early I think for snow. Not impossible for high terrain ice in the Catskills but that would be a really really really long shot, at this point.
  17. wdrag
    Good morning, Looks like some drizzle and showers have occurred NYC area early today. Suspect more coming tomorrow morning, and am not seeing a lot of sun or non marine influenced flow for our NYC area the next 2 or 3 days. Maybe Saturday for a real warm day? Nights will be very mild for sure. A dirty pattern I think. Epsilon doing it's thing per NHC and still 3-5 members of the GEFS trying to get something going near FL around the 25th-26th-the previous NHC 10% hold there is realistic. In the meantime...late 25th-27th... seems like we're going to be in quasi stationary baroclinic zone with a tropical connection via PWAT. Some generous precipitation anticipated ne USA... not impossible to see 1-3" in this period. For now we'll go with WPC but in a positive tilt situation...whereever the frontal boundary lays out, thats going to be the focus of decent qpf.
  18. wdrag
    The 27th Atlantic Basin Tropical event of the season is underway. Impact to the coastal eastern USA is expected to be confined mostly to swells, with heavy seas in the offshore waters developing this week - slowly easing in Epsilon's modeled northeast recurvature and departure this weekend. Max sustained winds are modeled to eventually be near 80 knots for a time, with seas possibly exceeding 30 feet north and east of the center by Friday or Saturday the 23rd-24th.
  19. wdrag
    EPSILON is now named. 11A EDT/19. NHC taking it to 80kt for now. We'll see what happens. There are now probs for 30 ft seas near the center by Fri-Sat and a very high probability for an extensive area of 12 ft seas well to the west and north of center.
  20. wdrag
    Yes on Caribbean less chance... only 2 or 3 members have that option. This Bermuda storm I think is going to be pretty notable and may make some news for sea going vessels, and I could eventually see the need for High Surf Advisories parts of north Atlantic coast around Fri or Sat. I'm buying into the higher end storm scenarios though that doesn't mean it will be that strong. On the Caribbean while probably nothing or minor... (25th-28th), the oncoming trough next weekend and early next week may need to be monitored for a long fetch of tropical moisture at least from GMEX and maybe even southward to the Yucatan. We will be in the baroclinic zone so something sizable could occur sometime between the 25th-28th. Today, I won't comment further on the Atlantic... just don't know for sure and leaving this to NHC and the assorted NHC intensity guidance applications.
  21. wdrag
    Good Monday morning all, 27 has been started by NHC. Going to head nw for a few days, and may not recurve newd til late Friday. Pressure drops down to the 950s or 960's (MB) and intensity forecasts continue to increase in NHC guidance. This should be interesting near Bermuda and then the longer period (11second?) 7+ foot (GFS guidance) e-se swells arriving east coast (including Atlantic LI-NJ) late in the week. Going to be a rough ride in the western and then northern Atlantic the next 5-8 days.
  22. wdrag
    27 started by NHC this morning. TC phase for at least two days has been very good on predicting immediate warm core and the intensity to ~TS sometime today. Intensity guidance has been ramping up. Presume the eventual Epsilon should get down to the the 950s or 960sMB by ~late Friday's beginning of recurvature to the ne. UK operationals I think so far are the most intense. Going to be a bit rougher on the ocean along the east coast by the end of the week due to long period easterly and eventual southeasterly swells.
  23. wdrag
    Epsilon (eventual): Should be sizable TC...pretty impressive looking 'potential'...still a slight westward displacement in eventual track from 24 hours previous but too far east of the E coast. Swells of 7 feet or higher seem plausible to LI by Friday with much bigger impact on marine seas near Bermuda. Intensity forecasts continue to increase-06z/19 attached.
  24. wdrag
    Hi! Adding this 12z/18 intensity forecast graphic. Based solely on this, my guess is Epsilon would be named by 00z/Tue -20th. ?? I should be corrected if others see it different. The only reason to post this intensity forecast is to show a general uptick in the intensity forecast from that which was posted a couple of days ago, and that some of the models swap intensity forecasts. I presume others are seeing the return of the Caribbean potential in 12z/18 multi models (excluding the UK/EC which have not posted as of this note). It is still e of FL with an unknown magnitude/track but I think worthy of monitoring. 123P/18
  25. wdrag
    Guessing it will be pretty warm ahead... we'll have to watch low lvl moisture that could lower potential 'max' temps along the coasts as overall, it looks like high pressure to our north with short attempts at w-sw surface flow. Most of the time it seems some sort of onshore flow? Not sure this is an entirely clean week ahead... I could see some drizzle, even a shower on one or two days of the next 7 (excluding today). Also, slight cirrus and very thin smoke aloft this morning. A somewhat thicker plume from the CO fire would possibly be noticed tomorrow with the only drawback being the likelihood of multiple layers of clouds.
×
×
  • Create New...