wdrag

Sighhhh, no insight. I see the stats written herein on little or no snow NYC in this pattern that seems to be changing from ne -sw to w-e systems later in the month. 12z/12 NAEFS is basically dry (less than 5MM North of 35N eastern USA) after whatever occurs the 16th, til at least the 24th. I see the12z/12 EPS has something for the Carolinas to NYC around late 20 or 21 and that could happen but? So far, its not in the GEFS/NAEFS. Have my fingers crossed for the NAEFS to start showing something legit soon (10 mm in 24 hours), even if it trails the EPS/GEFS by a day or so. The one bit of good news from my perspective: IFFF????? we get something later in the month, the thicknesses and BL temps might be cold enough for snow ratios 12 to 1 or higher??? IFFFFF we can hold the projected cooler thicknesses and BL temps later in the month. I too like the pattern as many discuss here...just have to respect climo and blocking suppression and getting everything to mesh right. Right now: watching what may happen the 16th for a few hours high terrain of I84. Boundary layer warmth is the problem there. Til tomorrow.

Good Tuesday morning everyone, Jan 12. I don't think any significant widespread hazardous wintry weather events are showing up for most of NYC forum prior to the 25th, nor any sustained below normal cold that lasts more than 3 days. We may eventually be able to topic an OBS thread for the I84 corridor late 15-16 high terrain, and there will be a few dustings I84 corridor, possibly starting as early as this Thursday the 14th, and on into the middle of next week. I just don't see anything big down here, at least not yet. Specifically the Poconos: A hazardous wintry snow event is likely late Friday and Saturday morning (15-16) when 1 to possibly as much as 4" may accumulate, with small additional accumulations of snow showers thereafter into Sunday. I84 east of PA: a low chance of a slight accumulation of snow higher terrain Saturday the 16th (rain ends as snow?), some flurry dustings Sunday? Then the 18th-20th--chance for a period of light snow. Around Monday the 25th: By this date, a pattern change will probably allow the development of a widespread wintry event from the nations midsection into the lower Great Lakes and a portion of the northeast USA. Not necessarily major but potentially a travel problem for many. The usual amount of uncertainties prevail, inclusive of how strong the Canadian high pressure and it's suppressive southward dominance in the northern USA, as well as the strength and progressiveness of a strong short wave(s) heading east from the western USA. I see the 06z/12 para has the 25th weak and a second stronger ~ the 27TH. I do not know what will happen but I like a pattern with cold high pressure already stretched to our north along the Canadian-US border, in advance of any WAA.

12z GFS now starting to post on Pivatol where they had the headline for a delay.

Thanks much.

Think NCEP having or was having a comms problem with the 12z/11 cycle but GGEM rolling and continues minor hopes for all amounts I84 west part 16th.

Looks that way but the GGEM is coming in pretty fast. Continues to have a little hopeful small amounts I84, western part for the 16th.

Good Monday morning everyone, Jan 11. In my review of 00z/11 multiple ensembles, 00z-06z/11 operational models, the preponderance of model signals do not indicate (to me) significant widespread hazardous wintry weather events for most of the NYC forum prior to the 25th, nor any sustained below normal cold. Eventually something has to change for the I84-195 corridors (long shots 16th, or 18th-20th, 25th). Poconos: There may be a hazardous wintry snow event late Friday or Saturday morning (15-16), with dustings of flurries possible thereafter into Sunday. GFSV16. Large scale neg tilt trough moving ene from the Ohio Valley which also applies to the I84 below on Saturday. I84 east of PA: very low chance (Boundary Layer seems too warm) of a slight accumulation of snow Saturday the 16th (rain ends as snow? GFS V16, GGEM, EPS), some flurry dustings Sunday? Then the 18th-20th--low chance of some snow which that too could be suppressed southeast out to sea. Monitor but from my perspective, don't yet count on much. ~Monday the 25th: I may regret this part because verifying a widespread event 14 days in advance is about a coin flip or less, and so this is said with very very low confidence, It appears to me that an extensive area of precipitation may develop from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and northeast USA. The only thing I can say about this date (~25th) is that this seems to be the first extensive potential overrunning - storm system we have here in the northeast USA for the next two weeks (non rapidly moving vortex related CFP's). The baroclinic zone will shift from ne-sw over the se third of the USA to e-w somewhere in the Ohio Valley as two troughs evolve (Maritimes and w Coast). I know that we like a ridge in the w USA for big east coast troughs, but something is modeled in the multiple ensembles to begin growing in the Ohio Valley. Amounts are small right now, and so this could be a bust, but I do see a build up of at least normally cold or even colder than normal air trying to bank up from the Plains northwestward. So unless we do a 50-50 low at that time, we probably would have a cutter (inside runner) and mostly rain here along I95, maybe wintry further northwest. Still, this is about the coldest time of the year. Just going to let this sit for a week, and try to clear out the earlier threats of the 16th, 18th-20th and whatever suddenly shows up; and then see if the Ohio Valley storm system actually occurs.

Good Sunday morning everyone, Dec 10. No significant widespread hazardous wintry weather events are showing up in the preponderance of modeling for the next two weeks, nor any sustained below normal cold. Eventually something has to change. I will probably will wait 2 or 3 successive consistent op and ensemble cycles before any potential topic. Just too much suppression. 15-16th 500MB digging into the northeast USA still looks impressive but probably too late for any wave on the front. GFS is just charging offshore with the cfront while one 00z/10 GGEM cycle holds back and offers minimal hope for the 16th. NAEFS is not impressed with anything around here through the 25th. Make it a good one.

You'll like the Para for Fri-Sat... it's something that a trough like this could induce... minor for I84 but something. GFS for the 18th????? who knows but impressive out of the mid part of continent. I know some on here have been interested for the 18th. Good to just maintain and hope that one of these turns into something you'll enjoy.

Just did this for New England forum... yes... pattern isn't bad... better than record setting USA 5s00MB ridge in the southeast USA. We have chances...they might not emerge til 2-3 days out?? But admittedly--- no clear cut favored snow event, yet. 06z/9 GEFS cycle slightly better. I've added 3 graphics. GEFS lows for 00z/16 as a sample, which is an event not completely north of us... but also prospects not that great here, despite what i think is quite a pair of shortwaves digging a big somewhat neg tilt through down the GLakes into the northeast. Then, added the 06z/ GEFs spaghetti 500MB for the 18th--- i think you all were referring to the cutter and I like this look too, for POTENTIAL, but I'd like more digging etc. The following GEFS qpf has minor bulge in the northeast as graphic added. Not a big deal but us snow lovers, we want to renew, so we'll look, but not jump.

Funny comments... thanks for the repost. 06z/9 cycle slightly better. I've added 4 graphics. GEFS lows for 00z/16 as a sample, which is an event not completely north of us... but also prospects not that great here, despite what i think is quite a pair of shortwaves digging a big somewhat neg tilt through down the GLakes into the northeast. Then, added the 06z/ GEFs spaghetti 500MB for the 18th--- i think you all were referring to the cutter and I like this look too, for POTENTIAL, but I'd like more digging etc. The following GEFS qpf has minor bulge in the northeast as graphic added. Not a big deal but us snow lovers, we want to renew, so we'll look, but not jump. Finally, you all probably saw this?? I've added a graph provided to us in the NYC forum (Bluewave post), about winters warming since 1970... not sure how the science was done but I think this pretty accurate... Some us who are 65 or 70+ years of age remember the winters that a few inches would fall, then would be followed by enough blustery cold that ridges would need plowing 24 hours after the storm... those were the more extended fun sledding and pond skating days, for me.

like the zzzzzzz that's what it seems to be for awhile. I did run our family cars (lucky to have two) through the car wash the past two days, in anticipation of little or no qpf for about a week or so. Good to get other stuff done now.

Good Saturday morning everyone-Jan 9. Quiet time. Nothing for me to latch onto. No major long lasting below normal outbreak foreseen here prior to Saturday January 23, and until something suddenly emerges, no significant snows around here prior to the 18th. I was hoping the big 500MB trough digging and going negative for a time through the northeast USA Fri-Sat 15th-16th would give us a chance but so far, nothing doing. 00z/9 GEFS and EPS have us with less than 1" qpf next 16 days. So something will have to change the pattern. Unsure when the stratwarm snowier impacts will show up here, if at all. Maybe someone else can be more optimistic.

fwiw: No topic yet, for a possible minor grazer around the 12th. Marginal snow temps and unknown northward extent. 00z/8 NAEFS/GEFS/EPS are northward from yesterdays cycles. Will reevaluate late today but i cant see going for a topic with less than 1" snow... other than an OBS topic for the date. Just need to wait it out and get other stuff done. Friday the 15th: Models have a notable cold front and it's possible there will be a period of small accumulative hazardous snow in the I84 corridor? Probably no big deal but it is a vigorous system and a week away so the forecast could change a bit. Skating ice nw NJ: I wouldn't try skating on any pond/lake around nw NJ til after January 25th, if at all this winter. I finally see some below normal 850 temps in the ensembles after the 22nd in w Canada... that is a change. However NAEFS through the 22nd h'as no below normal cold in the USA/Canada. Just have to wait and see if we ever really get the stratwarm event - colder than normal impact down here. Stratwarm events are not my strong suit. Have a day!

Excellent! Thank you very much.... Walt

I thought i saw a post on on temps past 50 years averaging near 4F warmer in winter than prior to 1970. Can someone just reference the post for me and show me the documentation. I like it... Thank you. Walt

And just like that, it's gone from the op 12z/7 GGEM. Certainly no topic action on my part today. GFSv15,16. ICON and GGEM all south. Cant go with an EC alone and have no confidence in UK beyond 3 days. Will rereview with multiple ensembles this afternoon but i cant confidently topic this event for the NYC forum til sometime tomorrow at the earliest. Patience needed. I think we need to accept the smaller events as much more probable than any big I95 snowstorm. Also, its may be that our big ones for near the coast, occur when there is a large transition in NAO and PNA Can be either + or - LARGE change... When the oscillation is stable - or +, we might not get as many big storms. I do remember H. Archambault ne snowstorms paper talking about 3 successive short waves changing the oscillation to negative and as I recall, it was the third that nailed us in the northeast. These are infrequent dreams. I think the oscillation transitions require big jet stream adjustments, possibly helpful for a big storm here in the northeast? Finally, if we cant even get a couple 1-3"rs the next two weeks, then let's blast some cold air down here and get the front end thump snow ending as a bit of junky rain...at least we will marvel at dendrites for a few hours. Right now, it's car wash weather up here to get rid of the salty dirty look to our vehicles. Media could be right with their subtle pronouncement midday yesterday (based on the GFS) that it's basically quiet for at least another week or so? Myself, the best snowstorms around here in the northeast are northern-southern stream phasers and i don't see any hope for that til at least the 15th.

Excellent approach... I just have to give weight to the GFS contributing. One reason, I sense the media like this model... It certainly competes and I'm not quite as gungho on EC/GFS stand alone as probably many in the community. Trying to use the best of what's offered and make a realistic guess at the future. I've also checked CPC, and haven't quite understood why their 6- ~20 day outlooks are normal or below on qpf along the east coast. I cant find access to previous 6-10 outlooks of the past several days but they were dry along the east coast, for some reason? So i keep that in mind but think overall, 3-5 > 0.10 qpf opportunities coming the next two weeks starting Monday the 11th...whether they produce what we prefer??

Yep... hopefully this continues with the 12z/7 cycle, but if evidence of sewd shift in the 12z/7 cycle, then more reason to wait. And I'd like at a minimum, the 12z/7 NAEFS to be more emphatic and the 12z/7 GFSv16 to bring it up here. V16? Cause that's the GFS op of the future... if it's not on board in advance of the GFS V15 op and the event occurs, then more fuel for my doubts. I am just not qualitatively seeing any indication of GFS16 BL physics (rain/snow) improvement here in our small corner of the world.

Greeting's this Thursday morning, Jan 7. I do not plan to start a topic for the 12th-13th, until the 12z/7 cycle guidance shows the GFS fully joining and hopefully consistent 00z-12z/7 EC-GGEM operational for an event. If I have to wait til tomorrow morning or beyond for this agreement, I will. I just do not want another 8th-9th miss for our forum and that one I thought was a good topic, that presumably will end up too far southeast - a miss. Here's what I've posted for a FB group of non - weather friends who just want an idea of if a hazard is coming. Baltimore to Boston along and NORTHWEST of I95 and inclusive of the entire I84 corridor (not Adirondacks) Tuesday the 12th ending Wednesday morning the 13th. Potential for at least several inches of snow which may change to rain for a time along I95?? This event is not guaranteed yet. I think we'll know much more with tomorrow morning's post. Friday-Saturday the 15th-16th: I84 corridor...a possible snow event? Best I can do through the 06z/7 operationals and ensembles. One note: The challenge continues on GGEM... I see some just don't think much of the GGEM. I can only say: if the GGEM doesn't have you big, it won't be. So far, this season nothing has changed. It's a good model, one that I know some of our NWS friends in the northeast USA look to for decision making. This perception on my part dates back to at least the early 2000's. Let's make this a good day and hope this pattern becomes productive for us up here in the northeast.

fwiw, i agree w all you stated herein, 06z/6 GEFS or not. Models are gradually improving. IF you havre large scale support with little room for stream sensitivity interruptions, the storms occur as outlooked a week or more in advance. But in lesser large scale rdiges/trough dominance with a more unstable pattern (many short waves), the so called D3-4 surprise (uh-oh) changes occur, resulting in a big change in the forecast reality. I see us in a somewhat unstable pattern now with the dominance being blocking north of 50N in N America, and a general troughness in the southern USA. I use this 52 member NAEFS as general reasonable anticipation of D8-14. I check its 00z outlooks vs itself and the 12z outlooks vs itself, and while it cools a bit in central North America during mid month... to me it says we're near or above normal through at least the 20th here in the northeast USA. Sometimes this NAEFS is wrong but often, I think it reasonable. And, while I haven't verified, the EPS, I think it best to look at EPS 500MB and 850MB departures from seasonal normals, not the sfc temp, which may???be biased a little cold, sometimes because of climo snow cover. This latter contention on my part about EPS cold bias in temps at distance from T0 could be wrong, but think it's wise to check that vs EPS projected 850MB departure from normal temps.

Cold outbreaks and stratwarm. I see no big cold outbreaks here for at least the next two weeks. I'm hearing of the stratwarm induced cold outbreak... stratwarm or not, aren't we due for at least a short 3 day period of 10 to15F below normal before the end of met winter? Seems normal to me. If daily 10 below normal lasts for virtually all of a week, that I think that is more notable. Hope it comes, otherwise no skating this winter on Culvers Lake in nw NJ.(second successive winter of poor ice thickness).

No topic considerations from me, beyond the failed Jan 8-9 topic, until the GGEM comes on board. GGEM may be later coming on board than initial projections from GFS 15,16,EC but I'm waiting til the GGEM is on board. That's when I think there is a good chance of verification, Even then, there can be failure. At a minimum 1 GGEM cycle and preferably two successive 12 hr GGEM cycles. (Ive checked back on the GGEM for this Jan 8-9 NYC subforum failed event...it was blocked quite far south with the 00z/3 cycle).

Good Wednesday morning all, Jan 6. Unless something highly unusual occurs, I've made my last update for this topic. This is a busted January 2 outlook that faded with model cycles only 24 hours after issuance, beginning around the 00z/3 cycle., blocked to our south and southeast.

Have seen multiple model 12z/5 guidance including EPS/GEFS ensembles and basically all say not coming up, except the NAEFS which still has at least 1 member coming significantly west than the preponderance of global model guidance. I am stubborn on this, not giving up the option of at least a snow grazer just se of I95 for the 9th. Am out of the more studied group on this and will review others input, but usually you need to wait til about 72 hours prior to the event to be very-very sure of the 500 MB interactions on a somewhat sensitive uncertain northern-southern stream handoff... the idea of having good 00z/12z upper air data to go with the satellite/aircraft/radar/surface data inputs. Since we're still on the 5th, I think I'll finally know for sure, whether this system will drop off my interest by 3PM Wednesday. Right now, it cannot come unorth into the NYC forum per virtually all guidance and that has to be the way it's played. Still, i hear media saying 10 days or more of no events... very difficult for me to believe that 1/8-9, 12ish, miss. NAEFS has both missing n of I84. So, I'm being patient on a potent system, and probably erroneously giving too much consideration for a more northwest track than modeled through the 12z/5 cycle. I would think that if that northwest track were to occur, it would be more evident in some of the 00Z-12z/6 modeling.