wdrag

Very well ---- advance analyzed. This helps us all..Thanks

Looking ahead here: Potential wind/rain event Fri or Sat?, then next Tue or Wed (20-21), and finally a tropical system of interest near FL around the 24th-27th.

Good Tuesday morning all, CP 1.12", i think for a storm total through 6A, Wantage NJ 0.62 More coming through midday except it probably quits NJ shore around 8-10A. Ends this afternoon from W-E per what I think are the best performers early today RGEM/GGEM and ECMWF op runs from 00z/13. First graphic is general expectation from 8A-4P... except probably nil after 8A s of I-195 in NJ, maybe almost nil at I78, again after 8A. I've added on some mapped sampler amounts since about midnight. (Am pretty sure we exceeded 3" Storm TOTAL parts of the NJ coast.) First 6 hourly is the NJ CLI sites, then NYS Mesonet, then a broad WU. Bottom line...nice rains early today with largest .5 to 75" amounts NJ coast-e LI. May not be posting much 8A-1P. Have good day.

My last til the morning. CP 0.91 as of midnight. Wantage NJ 0.47 Several wrap up graphics added for todays 24 hour calendar day rainfall. NJ CLI rainfall leads, followed by several graphics from WU... a few data points suspect but while far E LI very little so far...less than 0.1"; the rest of Long Island an easy 0.75 to 1.75" today, se NYS as presented (less than 1" except near HPN. CT should be coming up now. NJ shows a number of 2+ along the coast from near New Brunswick down to ACY. Radar shows the bands of enhanced rainfall moving northward pretty quick. Should be more interesting toward dawn when we wake up to a new day.

I think radar is looking better for heavier rains to the coast overnight per radar return and northwest drift. Two official NJ CLI sites in our area over 2" per attached along the NJ Coast. Also official NYS mesonet. This as of about 929P. NJ coast has 10 more hours. LI another 12-14 hours.

CP up to .82 as periods of rain-drizzle continue spreading north. Appears some intensification beginning on the se inflow along the De Coast. We'll see if this translates north.

Adding WxUnderground... some of the data looks inaccurate... but I'm not surprised at many amounts 1.2-2.2" LI and NJ coast.You'll know better than I how the data looks compared to your own sensors. 5P

Snapshot rainfall today only in NJ...several reports 1.45-1.75" NJ coast and one I see near 1.9". It goes up from there from now on. Solid helpful event NJ/LI and I would think eventually NYS/CT.

Modeling/southeast flow at 850 with cyclonic flow in the boundary layer with combined overrunning WAA near 900MB easterly to southeasterly flow of nearly saturated 100 % moisture through 700MB suggests to me that drizzle will overspread from the south, becoming steady light rain at times sometime later this evening (like in NYC now) and if we get a little IR cirrus seeding later Tuesday morning from the next short wave, we could see even brief moderate showers up in the interior of se NYS. I'd think this would be a nice situation in winter of cyclonic flow precip. I like the pattern... not ideal for HUGE amounts but PWAT near 1.5" can yield pretty good. Amounts continue climbing NJ coast into LI late this afternoon with CP at 0.65 as of 415PM. Give it some time but later this evening we should notice a bit more noticeable returns o\n radar developing northward. IF NOT...then I'm wayyy overdone in using there model guidance. I'll close with this... I expect Wantage to increase from it's current 0.46" to somewhere near .75 by the time 15z rolls around Tuesday... and CP to be over 1.15" by that time. For se NYS my guess is at least 0.25 for a start, bit heavier down toward HPN. Thats not a lot but also this closing in on original expectations. NJ coast Monmouth-Ocean should be near 3" by 15z Tuesday... LI... I'd add on .5 to 1.5" and gusty easterly flow there during there night-early Tuesday. Added some NAM graphics..hopefully of value...all for POU. You can see the RH, winds and the thermal advection near 925MB.

I think through 18z CP 0.58 event total.

tonight .....and.... tomorrow. Cyclonic flow...a bit of an inverted trough forming vicinity NYC and while DELTA upper air support passes by the Delmarva now, the next midwest short wave seems to capture the remaining low and draw it northeastward tonight and Tuesday. If this was a winter storm, excitement would abound (presuming it was snow). So I think we have quite bit of development tonight into tomorrow morning, especially I95 eastward then it fades away in the afternoon... this second shot i did not think could happen this much when the topic was started.

Will post images as time permits. 1PM numbers. 1/2-1" expected between 8PM tonight and 2PM tomorrow coastal NJ, NYC with 1-11.5" on the Island into CT. interior NYS and nw NJ 1/4-1/2" after 8P tonight. Wantage at 0.45" as of 1P. Graphics: First 3 are today only. Wx underground mesonet samplers: Please discard the 1.91 near Massapeaqua... you see some near 1.5" amts LI and TTN-Monmouth-Ocean Counties. NJ CLI site Have latched onto NYS Mesonet site.

Will post images as time permits. Have latched onto NYS Mesonet site... This as of 8AM today.

Long ways to go... and to me it looks nasty at times for LI/NJ coast into Tuesday morning. Think the topic with it's 628AM Sunday commented adjustments is valid. It took a while for the measurable rain to make it to I80 north (midnightish). My only significant adjustment is that it's apparent that the heavier bands occurring this morning may ease to drizzle for a time this afternoon with renewed bands of heavier showers/rain redeveloping northward late today and especially overnight-early Tuesday. The strongest east wind for this entire system may not occur til around 2AM-7AM Tuesday when gusts 45 or possibly 50 MPH should occur near coastal LI. 2+" of rain not impossible for NYC by the time 2PM Tuesday rolls around, and thinking isolated 4.5" still within the realm of possibility either tiny portion of the NJ coast (Ocean.Monmouth) or possibly LI. So far, over 1" has occurred in a portion of coastal Ocean County NJ, and many locations 1/4-3/4" in NJ. Winds are gusting to ~ 30 MPH much of the NJ coast. OKX radar storm total looks reasonable to me. Follow local NWS statements on tidal flooding at the time of high tide.

Good Sunday morning all, not much change in the overall scenario outlined in the topic starter but from my side, a few adjustment considerations. 1) Rather cold Monday rains with wind chill upper 30s in some high terrain locations Poconos Sussex-Orange Counties into sw CT. 2) There may be a slight southward drift for the main qpf shield since 24 hours ago... to me that raises the possibility of maybe only near 1" Pike, northern Sussex, across Orange Putnam counties with less than 1" Ulster-Dutchess-Litchfield. Unsure of this slightly lower northern fringe qpf. 3) Max rainfall axis in our area continues modeled Ocean, Monmouth, Middlesex in NJ then to the s coast of LI...best chance of 3" with iso 4.5 still possible but imo, only Ocean Monmouth. 4) Gale assured now with max gust probably 40-50 MPH LI, NJ coast Monday. 5) Start time late today may be slightly too fast for NNJ/NYC but some modeling is spotting light showers there 5P-10P. 6) NEW from my review-failed to check yesterday. Minor coastal flooding appears probable now for the Monday afternoon high tide NJ coast... haven't checked LI but follow OKX. I'm an mPING user.

Since it's a big year, am looking ahead with proximity to the USA East coast and GMEX. Epsilon and Zeta appear on the "modeling" horizon in both the GEFS/EPS members between the 17th-26th. The current NHC outlooked 20% chance is not included, though not ruled out. Added only GEFS/EPS member sampling next weekend, with more members showing up in the week thereafter. Eastern GMEX-FL coast still above normal SST. Closed this post with a 10 day outlook for DELTA members (06z/SEP 27).... that tended to be closer to FL for 06z/7, but had a few near the Yucatan. Overall modeling cues seem to be improving, I think.

Modeling: Overall last 72 hours...which model performed best? and then prior to 72 hours on initiation of DELTA?

There's your smoke aloft sunrise... 6 hr modeled forecast for 8AM...axis of some smoke aloft is I95. It will thin midday then thicken briefly again late this afternoon.

Leading mid level frontogenesis (FGEN) developing northeastward ahead of remnant DELTA will probably begin showers-sprinkles over NJ/NYC during Sunday afternoon-evening. Subsequent intensifying bands of FGEN associated with a probable sfc low crossing NJ Monday to Cape Cod early Tuesday will lead to periods of moderate to heavy rain with gusty east winds briefly nudging 35 knots coastal LI to Sandy Hook NJ for a time Monday. PWAT generally 1.5 to 1.9" through the event should result in widespread 1"+ of rain with 3"+ more likely reserved for parts of the upslope Poconos, then across central-ne NJ to LI with Isolated 4.5" possible. Best chance of 4.5" seems to be across Ocean Middlesex Counties of NJ "IF" it is to occur. Quite a bit of cold air damming is anticipated and temperatures north of the surface low may only be in the upper 40s and 50s during the day Monday throughout the forum (coldest north of LI, and across se NYS down into extreme nw NJ). Heaviest rain should be done by 11PM Monday evening, but leftover periods of cyclonic flow drizzle and bands of showers associated with the trough axis passage will occur into the early daylight hours Tuesday. Flash Flood Guidance is high so flash flooding unlikely though ponding of water is expected to slow travel at times Monday (in part caused by short periods of heavy rain and some leaf clogged drainage basins). We need the rain.

In case you notice a little haziness to the sky this eve, or tomorrow morning, it's smoke from the western USA. Here is a sample modeled position of the plume tomorrow morning around sunrise when it may be a little more prominent overhead of the I95 corridor.

Barring a significant drying out of the operational00z/10 NAM/GFS/EC/ICON/GGEM, will probably start a topic tomorrow morning for the period 2PM Sunday-2PM Tuesday of a 1-3" rain event and chance of a tiny area of 4.5" w possible gale gusts vicinity LI-Sandy Hook. More details tomorrow morning (upon further review as they say). I've added the 36 hour chance of 3+" of rain from the SREF...it is decidedly beefier than the GFS...so it's heavier forecast is not a lock. You'll view th'e chance of 3"+ using the legend comparison, ending at 11PM Monday (which might be most of the event?), save for less than 1/2" additional of drizzle-rain after 11 PM Monday through Noon Tuesday. Also the bottom panel has the average of the SREF members.

Looking back to the first week of October which the NAEFS modeled odds favoring colder than normal. NOT here at our longitude eastward in the forum. No freezes, no snow in the Ads-Catskills, no coldest day of the season. The verification was very good in Ohio Valley-Great Lakes to the Apps. We ended up in the bad forecast zone (too cool). Here it is...

No topic yet for late Sunday-Wed night. Too much variability and NAEFS probs for 2+ diminished a bit since yesterday. WPC also cut back a little. Lots of potential though and can see general 1-2" spotty 4.5" by Tuesday evening with beyond uncertainty but further qpf possible Wed and even Thursday. PWAT/instability burst late Sunday-Monday morning and then PWAT near 2" late Monday-Tuesday morning. Even could be isolated thunder. With a big cool high to the northeast, could see G 35KT near LI. For now, waiting it out to see if the GEFS comes back closer to the EPS for late Sun-Tuesday. Models have slowed a bit so Sunday afternoon-evening is a little in doubt. Overall, for myself, just don't want to topic what could still be only a routine event.

Appears to me from RAL tracks, that the primary DELTA goes west of us Monday but a triple point low, in part caused by the strong cool high to our northeast Sunday may focus 1-2" qpf in a part of our forum on Monday. My expectation is the later Sunday portion will be associated with FGEN banding well in advance of DELTA... working on showery Louisiana 700 MB moisture that arrives here this weekend. The Monday rains should be more DELTA involved. Trailer cool frontal band Tuesday...then does it stall over our area Wednesday as a new northern stream trough digs down into the Great Lakes or does it progress eastward out to sea. My guess for NYC CP CLI is 0.3" Sunday, anywhere from 0.5 to 2.5" Monday depending on triple point formation or not, and then Tues could be less than 0.5" with Wednesday unknown but I don 't see Wednesday as necessarily a null day... that day to me is the larger uncertainty. That gives me a NYC CP range by Wed night of 1" minimum to 3.2" max as a very early attempt at ranging... the normal D4-7 uncertainty caveat.

Looking ahead: No topic yet... beneficial rain on the way and over the period of Sunday afternoon (11)-Wednesday night (14th), a pretty high probability that much of our NYC forum receives 2 inches, with spotty 4+ possible. I've added the 00z/8 cycle WPC outlook and the NAEFS probability of 2+". It probably occurs in several pieces with main DELTA remnant later Sunday-Monday night. Thereafter, a couple more bands Tuesday and Wednesday. PWAT will be generally 1.5" through this period, provided the DELTA remnant trough doesn't drive the PWAT axis offshore for Tuesday-Wednesday. 630A/8