wdrag

Good morning all, My take based on the 00z/06z ops and 00z/18 ensembles. 00z/18 NAEFS helped guide the wintry and qpf call (~0.4" w-e I80 axis) The I84 corridor has basically scattered dustings this afternoon and evening, Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday afternoon, and again Thursday-Friday. Amounts in the Poconos might add up to 1 or 2 inches by Friday, trace to 1/2 inch elsewhere by Friday eve. Basically just be alert for quick changes but overall no big deal. Travelers into the northeast USA Monday-Tuesday the 25th-26th should be aware that an extensive light to moderate hazardous wintry episode is expected for all untreated surfaces, especially the I84 corridor. It may even briefly begin as snow-ice down to Philly Monday. The front end Monday start time is uncertain..it could start for a couple of hours Monday morning then stop for 12 hours. The bulk of this event probably occurs late Monday night into Tuesday night the 26th. Odds favor a change to rain south of I80 by Tuesday morning the 26th, but ice or snow north of I80, especially the I84 corridor. NYC-LI--- have no confidence on sleet-snow start or just rain...close but for now both are options, from a multiple model blend. Right now, I think most of the wintry is to the nw-ne of NYC, though a start as wintry is possible. I'll probably start a thread on this, this afternoon pending receipt of the entire slate of guidance. I do see the para is south and that the EPS ensembles are south. I just think there is enough ensemble data for an event of sorts. Will check back mid afternoon.

GFSV16 has started for the 12z/17 cycle. at 24 hours as of this post.

Added from the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Dec 2020 Digital edition. I think they would like to see this info shared and I think it valuable...especially Lead Time on SVR and Synoptic Scale events. It definitely supports my basis for acting on threads. This is from page 1125. AMS STATEMENTS Priorities for a New Decade: Weather, Water, and Climate A Policy Statement of the American Meteorological Society (Adopted by the AMS Council on 28 September 2020) One to three hours. Our national investment in research and observations has paved the way for severe weather guidance to extend beyond traditional 30- to 60-minute warnings into the 1- to 3-hour time frame. Such guidance could lead to major benefits in preparation and safety. It also raises new questions. How will people respond if they expect to have more than an hour to take action ahead of a possible tornado or a flash flood? How can the probabilities and uncertainties inherent in such guidance best be conveyed? How can schools, workplaces, and other institutions act to support public safety measures in these extended time frames? Weeks to months. Specific local weather forecasts cannot be issued with accuracy beyond about 10 to 14 days. However, many other types of outlooks have demonstrated accuracy over periods of weeks to months (subseasonal to seasonal periods) when they are presented in terms of probabilities or likelihoods. For example, some periods of increased regional tornado risk Predicting and respond- ing to such multipronged threats will require new forms of collaboration and data sharing across sectors and disciplines.

Thanks... still learning. It's tough to be realistic ...but in forecasting, credibility goes to crud pretty quick if you miss more than the coin flip. Good to discuss everything as is done on these forums.. helps me see data use that I'm not up to speed on. Speaking of which: watch those lapse rates this week and R1(boundary layer RH aka Temp-dew point spreads less than 20F)... We'll have to see if downslope dries out the potential for snow showers all the way down to the city. I like what I see but models and MOS are pretty dry so that tempers my enthusiasm. Plus the observation process might miss the tiny sub one quarter inch amounts. Making the most out of this winter pattern.

On frigid weather - enjoyment of-- cause some of us lived through it (we're older but still alive). I think there was the 30 days or so of subfreezing weather in NYC that contained the damage of a January garbage strike back in the 60s. How about pond hockey regularly every winter in the 1960s. how about the wonderful chill of the freezer NFL bowl in Jan 82 ... that was some pretty decent cold. I remember MKE Jan 1982... two separate super cold episodes out there where electronic means were needed to keep the oil in your engine from congealing (ie so you could drive to work). and I know one of those shifted episodes into the northeast USA. BRRRR... and that's why I own too much long under and outer wear. Now that was ARCTIC... The were the days in the northern USA...

As of 7AM Sunday 1/17 I have no changes to anything written since inception of this thread. No increases, no decreases. It's minor if it occurs. I sort of like Wednesday morning when I think we could see pretty decent lapse rates and a decent short wave passage. The possible snow or flurry event for late Thursday-early Friday is more WAA related, after what should turn out to be a pretty cold Wednesday. Hdre's the 06z/GEFS membership and mean as well as the anomaly modeled for 18z Wednesday.

Good Sunday morning everyone, Jan 17. No insight except my own interp of what the models are trying to say up here. No big deal til the 25th and even then, quite a bit of uncertainty, including ptype along I80-LI. I84 corridor Today-Tuesday... a few flurries and maybe one or two short periods of minor accumulative snow showers, especially Poconos Monday-Tuesday where dustings are probable. I84-I80 corridors including LI Wednesday morning-early afternoon including LI: COLD. A period of flurries seem likely or even minor accumulative snow showers. I84-I80 corridors including LI Thursday afternoon-early Friday: A period of flurries or minor accumulative snow showers, except possibly sprinkles-light rain for LI. 25th-26th: No 06z V16 as of this writing and the 06z op was scary dry. NAEFS has a widespread light event of snow or ice I80 northward (Rain LI?). Not convinced yet of the NAEFS amounts of 0.4" melted. Could be less. Have a good day and let's cross fingers for something.

Have no additional contributions on the 22nd. the 25th-26th yes. Notoriously, Modeling doesn't handle ejection of the sw USA 500MB closed lows very well. Impact differences are huge in the eastern USA. Think I want to wait 3 more days (19th before getting my hopes too high).

Not too worried about the 25th-26th...something should happen. I am paying attention to this Thu night-Fi. Doersbt mean it will happen but surprised the GEFS is up a little on qpf.

I like the conversation and my only thought with the 26th, watch the 22nd. For those who wish NIL for the 22nd.. root for the 12z/16 GEFS to back off a bit on qpf and for UKMET to not have developed some sort of short wave in the Ohio Valley to join with the northern tier ese driver. We'll have to count on this being one of the UKMET'S spurious wrong off by 300 miles on qpf axis operational cycles. It does this kind of thing...am saving the UK for qpf for 12/22 night/23 AM for a future compare. I'll be away from the computer for awhile after 1P.

Snowfall reports so far, extreme northwest portion of the forum area as of CoCoRahs reports this morning prior to 830AM.

Wantage NJ (this part) 0.76 and still clicking a bit.

Good Saturday morning everyone, Jan 16. Bringing this back briefly to upcoming wintry weather: If you want winter, maybe a trip the next 7 days to the L Ontario snow belt. Added a map of this mornings NWS forecast for an idea of where to try and an idea of amount max regions. This just goes on and on this week and looks to me like they are assured of a pretty good snow mobile season well into early February, at the least. Will not add NAEFS maps for what looks to be wintry qpf the 25th-26th, since I'd like to see this continue another couple of cycles. Just too early for me to start a topic (from my view). The previous discussion concerns, including ripping jet across the USA, blocking suppression etc. First, I'd like to see us get something minor this week associated with the Wednesday and late Thursday short waves. Finally, while this excludes most of us, there should be scattered or isolated high terrain dustings/coatings of snow I84 corridor later today through Monday (500MB troughs passing eastward through the northeast USA). Have a day.

Basically no change to this topic since reviewing the 00z/16 OP's and ensembles. EC is our best model bet right now. I could have added a chance that the events for Li might be rain for Thursday, but I don't think so. Yet that is a possibility. What I do think is that there will be at least an hour or two of snow showers for parts of the forum, especially this coming Thursday.

Topic started to follow whether or not NYC can muster it's first measurable snow since December 17. Other parts of the forum had some general snow on the 3rd. Lots of debate on what will happen, or not, so we might as well have some fun tracking it and keep the 25-26th and beyond out of this topic. First measurable snowfall (near climo) POSSIBLE between Tue night and Thursday night. Two opportunities and both could be suppressed/dried out in northerly flow. Also could be too warm to stick in NYC if snow were to occur, and especially if it occurs during the daylight hours. These are probably minimal impact events, if any. Guidance probabilities are possibly conservative for short periods of light snow in a 12 hour period, especially with currently expected melted qpf under 0.10. Opportunities are associated with an esewd moving shortwave from the Great Lakes to new England early Wednesday and another esewd moving short wave from the Great Lakes late Thursday. Climo snowfall for this during the 'climatologically' coldest winter average temps in NYC: CP 0.2-0.3; POU 0.4.-0.5". Short events. As of this 1/15 412PM start, probably under 8 hours total, possibly less than 1 hour in parts of the area? I would hope we can muster half an inch between these two short wave passages in part of our NYC forum, be it se NYS, CT, e LI or maybe we get lucky for much of our forum? I'll be glad to adjust this topic with any interesting information that is added from our group and of course if the models somehow improve our chances which right now, per 12z/15 (Friday) NWS MOS and WPC extended, are less than 50%.

Hi everyone, Think I'll start a topic to track some stuff. Lots of debate on what will happen, or not,. So we might as well organize it and keep the 25-26th and beyond out of this topic. It's probably minimal impact events, if any. First measurable snowfall (near climo) POSSIBLE between Tue night and Friday morrning. Two opportunities and both could be suppressed/dried out in northerly flow. Also could be too warm to stick in NYC if snow were to occur, and especially if it occurs during the daylight hours. I do think we'll see a little bit of measurable snow in parts of the forum from the esewd moving shortwave early Wednesday and/or from the east or esewd moving short wave for Thursday afternoon-eve. Climo snowfall in NYC CP is 0.2-0.3; POU is 0.4.-0.5". Short events. As of this 1/15 post, probably just 2 to 6 hours. I would hope we can muster half an inch between these two short wave passages in part of our NYC forum. (north and northwest fringe high terrain our our forum may do that tomorrow into Sunday with an inch or 2). For NYC this would be the first measurable since Dec 17. Other parts of our area had measurable around Jan 3. I'll be glad to adjust this topic with any interesting information that is added from our members and of course if the models somehow improve our chances which right now, per 12z/15 (Friday) NWS MOS and WPC extended, are less than 50%.

Ditto Wantage NJ at 757A 31.5 1/4Mi vsby.

Good Friday morning everyone, Jan 15. I cannot topic anything right now before the 25th, and possibly nothing til the 29th or after. Blocking suppression seems to be dominant though 00z/15 GEPS and EPS give us some hope for the 21st-22nd. Am not convinced yet- 00z-06z/15 GFS V15-16, NAEFS not enthused. Am hoping that maybe an inverted trough back from the Atlantic will help us sometime between the 20th-21st, if we cant get a wave of low pressure to run as far north as the Delmarva on the 21st-early 22. Tonight-Sunday morning I84 high terrain above 1000 feet which leaves out nw NJ except Vernon, northern Wantage and the High Point area, also probably leaving out CT east of Burlington-Hartford: Rain tonight will mix with or change to wet snow or even freezing rain at times in some of the Poconos and northern Litchfield County CT, then just become snow showers at times Saturday into Sunday. Probably only an inch or less, but possibly a little higher amounts. Monday: I84 corridor, maybe a period of flurries? Tuesday night or Wednesday: I84 corridor..possibly a period or two of small accumulative snow? Hopefully others are more enthused about the modeling or maybe it will all come together for us soon. Regards.

No topics yet: Per prior discussion and 12z/14 modeling... it is worthy to note that even though the op GGEM is decent on qpf, it's ensembles are not. The result... NAEFS can't muster much qpf here... probably 0.2 or less... and note that 1000-500 thickness and BL temps are marginal I80-LI south. IF the NAEFS can crank this up on qpf a bit more and the EPS holds it's own, then I can gain confidence on a light to mdt wintry event along or just n of I80 up to I84. Was quite surprised to see how low the 12z/14 NAEFS qpf was and so that's my only hold up. I do know it's something to track and am pretty sure we'll see wintry weather in part of the forum but suppression or a warmer BL scenario can occur that could limit the extent of snow/ice in our forum. Myself, waiting til I recheck tomorrow morning. FWIW: NAEFS looks a bit better for the 25th.colder and somewhat more extensive 0.2" (5mm) into our area at least 5MM more qpf than the 21st-22nd... that's also not that much and can change. At least there is some slowly increasing support for something around the 21st-22nd. https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html That's the NAEFS link. Change the forecast cycle to 12z and leaf through the various available 24 hour parameters that verify at 00z.

Good Thursday morning everyone, Jan 14. On topics The Fri night-Sat wet snow should be just a few obs extreme northwest part of the forum. I think LI/CT can handle the 1-3" rain and gusty wind to 40 MPH early Sat. Jan 21-23 as others note... relatively small with uncertainty, but I guess any snow would be noteworthy. For now holding off on a topic... at least GGEM/EC and now the planned soon to be implemented GFSv16 are on board, but for how long, and is it mostly snow or does LI have mostly rain. West-east pulses of jet stream energy can toss out nice snows but would like to see better lower level inflow. -- Day by day starting with Today: Mainly on or north of I84. A period of inconsequential light snow possible high terrain between now-1P. Late Friday-Saturday night: Poconos (especially MT Cobb exit 8) should see 1" to worst case possibly 4" of snow and a period of untreated hazardous conditions, especially Friday night and late Saturday. Meanwhile east of PA along and north of the I84 high terrain above 700 feet, periods of rain may change to wet snow at times. Amounts of an inch or so possible highest terrain west of the Ct River (Litchfield County) but nil elsewhere. Monday the 18th: Northeast USA from Baltimore northward to I84. A period of light snow or flurries possible. No hazard and this based on strong short wave passage. Modeling tends to be dry. Late Thursday 21-late Friday 22nd: Philly to maybe as far north as I84. VERY early with uncertainty of northward extent and rain/ice line but this does appear to me to be a fairly widespread light hazardous wintry weather event of a small plowable snow and/or ice combo (except LI mainly rain?) Around Monday the 25th: Probably another widespread light wintry event from the nations midsection into the lower Great Lakes and a portion of the northeast USA. Again uncertainty. 602A/14

No significant changes to expectations from early this morning. The ensembles just don't get very excited for qpf up here after the 16th but fwiw... the 6-10day and 8-14D FM CPC updated a few minutes ago are normal precip here with a definite cool down after the 23rd. For me: No topic yet on 21st-22nd... NAEFS shows this suppressed a bit while some of the op models attempt too intense low pressure too far north. I like the idea of a secondary wave s of LI. No matter, just have to wait that out. It's not blockbuster but it looks wintry to me along and n of I80 (except maybe LI) I've added several NAEFS graphics from the 11th,12th,13th 00z cycles to show the steadiness of a qpf event Hud Valley east in the 24 hours ending 00z/17. The NAEFS seems to have been leading on this which would be the GEPS contribution. The reason i show this... NAEFS can be helpful in gauging confidence and how far off the deep end should we dive into an event. These NAEFS graphics show the mean at 5,10, 20MM (0.2", 0.4" 0.8") withe variability color coded within.

Thank you very much! Still trying to learn, remain relevant, push the envelope but maybe with a little less urgency than when at work. I don't miss the routine...just sooo many grids and trying to make the interoffice collaborative process work with unexpected differing gridded word outcomes, and of course meshing (ruffling feathers sometimes and not always correctly) differing forecaster approaches to various situations including HWO, WWA announcements. I do miss the people, the learning, challenges. Soon back to a pt retired county job... and then much less forum, and eventually in a few years possibly little forecaster forum when the models become even better, leaving less room for event outcome discussion. The forum has been a good addition to my daily life in this quieter necessarily restricted living of the past year. Thank you American Weather! Walt

Thanks for the plug. Trauma processed, but I can't even remember that bust. Sorry. I just had to move on and try to improve. I think the chances of those busts have lessened quite bit with our past 20 years of improved forecast tools-processes (ensembles, positive snow depth changes, BUFKIT-Tsection analysis, snow ratio's, snow physics understandings, collaboration with the parent center=WPC). I hope you agree. Regards, Walt

Quick idea of what I'm expecting in our NYC forum coverage area. Wintry hazardous weather opportunities, long heralded for January, but so far, suppressed to our south, should gradually become known to everyone here in the northeast USA by the end of next week (21st-22nd, for which am considering a topic but want to wait til late today before committing) My take below from a review of many 00z/13 ops and ensembles. Day by day starting with Thursday: I84 corridor to Boston. Mostly north of I84 but a period of light snow or flurries should occur between 5AM and 2PM Thursday. Probably inconsequential. Late Friday-Saturday night: Poconos should see 1 to possibly 4" of snow and a period of untreated hazardous conditions, especially Saturday afternoon-evening. Meanwhile east of PA along the the I84 high terrain above 700 feet, periods of rain change to wet snow at times, with most of the snow later Saturday. Amounts of an inch or so highest terrain but negligible in the valleys. Monday the 18th: A period of snow or flurries possible. Small amounts possible but for now, not much of a hazard, if any at all. Thursday-Friday the 21st-22nd: Entire northeast USA from Ohio eastward along and north of I80. VERY early but this does appear to be a fairly widespread hazardous wintry weather event of plowable snow and/or ice. Rain could get involved south of I84?? Just too early for me to be sure of suppression that allows significant snow into NYC. Around Monday the 25th: Probably another widespread wintry event from the nations midsection into the lower Great Lakes and a portion of the northeast USA. If it's not the 25th, then maybe the 27th but for now am concentrating on the 25th. For both the 21st-22nd and ~ the 25th: Potentially a period of travel problems for many in the heart of winter. The usual amount of uncertainties prevail, inclusive of how strong the Canadian high pressure and it's suppressive southward dominance in the northern USA. Added a couple of GEFS probs from the 00z/13 GEFS (chance of Greater than 2" of snow, and chance of >1/4" qpf). Serves as a starter to compare future ensemble probs. Have a good day.

Good Wednesday morning to all, Jan 13. Weather.US models rts ~550A EST. I think our long rangers are going to be relatively happy... flurries into NYC Sat night or Sunday Morning, maybe a period of wet light melting snow Monday in NYC, and then potential for several events late 21st through the end of the month. I'm thinking a model topic for 1/21-22. Even if mostly wet NYC, I think a significant wintry event for part of our area, between I80 and I90 (Ohio eastward), is coming in that two day time frame per GFS 15 and 16, GGEM, NAEFS and EPS ensemble.