wdrag

10A... steady light snow and snow pellets. Vsby down to ~ 2mi. Trace visible on the ground.

Wantage Nj: flurries and mostly small snow pellets began around 9A. 27.5/15.4 vsby still 7+.

No additional confidently stated info for this potential, except the 00z/25 EFS and EPS are almost identical evolving the 500MB LOW into New England. Still could see a southward displacement? WPC overnight D6-7 continues >30% risk of 3+" both dates for our forum; just N and W of NYC. I could easily get into their dailies to to focus, so I've an unfocused D4-7 posted here. Check the bottom two (D6-7) if interested.

Good Tuesday morning. A minor widespread event will begin in the NYS, NYC, NJ/PA portion of the forum 830AM-1230PM with a burst of snow-sleet. From there, it's modeling and our guesses. The start in the CT and remaining LI is probably 1130A-130P and there too a burst of snow to start. How its unfolds LI later today-tonight? I do think it will get slippery there and I expect at least 1/2" snow NYC-LI possibly 2-3" in spots of LI NYC by Noon Wednesday, though I might be on the high side. The NAM3K sounding doesn't look very warm to me and its significantly colder than the GFS. So, it's all yours. Have added the following graphics: 1) NWS 5AM snowfall forecast, 2) he 00z/25 SPC HREF glaze forecast (might be too high on the northern edge which looks all snow sleet to me), 3) the NWS 08z/25 ensemble prob for 1+" of snow, f 4) the NWS 08z/25 ensemble prob for measurable freezing rain, 5) the SPC HREF snow forecast (see legend for amounts 1"+) and 6) finally the 06z/25 NAM3K forecast for Sparta NJ giving an idea of how cold this forecast is...possbily a little robust on qpf. All yours. Will be off line 1215P-330P.

Hmmm? I'd be a little cautious about traveling untreated surfaces midday-tonight.

mPing should be interesting. The advisory for a mix of wintry elements will probably start with a burst of decent snowfall rates between sunrise and 2PM before a probable change to rain, freezing rain or sleet on LI and I80 southward during the afternoon and possibly back to ice or snow early Wednesday. The i84 corridor should be mostly snow, if not all snow. The region southeast of I95 in NJ after starting as snow or sleet should transition to plain rain by Tuesday night but it might be marginal for icing in Monmouth-Middlesex counties near the colder air sitting astride I80-LI. This I believe is the first expected widespread winter weather advisory event dating back to at least January 3. There's a small chance for a period of flurries along I195 to maybe near I78 in NJ between midnight and 4am but the main event in the NYC forum begins during the daylight hours Tuesday.

Agreed,,, tho i haven't seen the ptype... there is a chance that 70% or more of this pcpn north of I80 will be all snow. The only reason i see sleet in far nw NJ is that the saturated sounding after 00z is all below 700mb and min temp in that column about -7C. Maybe not enough ice nuclei for snow. Uncertain but it's also all below freezing in Sparta. The first 1-5 hours of this event may have some decent lift and snowfall rates of nearly 1/2"/hr before the mix. I don't know if anyone noticed, but a couple of models are increasing qpf across the forum and I think that will be right. I think the EC and NAM are seeing developing low pressure late Tue s of 44025 and the associated cyclonic circulation may enhance qpf into the 0.3-0.5" range, esp LI. The NAEFS is still down a little so no guarantee that the 18z EC/NAM are correct. Back tomorrow morning.

Weather service collaboration should catch the bulk of these synoptic scale (low pressures) events, especially within 24 hours.

will start the obs nowcast thread at 5a Tue, for this minor event. Should be interesting midday.

I can live with snowfall #'s presented here except it look s a little low CT. I'd like more snow but if sleet/freezing rain/rain depending on location get involved, then the big trim as posted herein. From what I can tell this has slippery on all untreated surfaces almost from the start on Tuesday and a possible refreeze Tue night along the margins where it rises to 33-34F later day or eve. I think the darker yellow ice #'s might be a touch high but jury out. Bottom line...some sleet or freeIng rain appears to be coming across NJ, LI (ice LI temp dependent.) Back in the morning.

Because sleet is treated as snow acc at 10 to 1 and it's usually much less, maybe 2.5 or 3 to 1? Bottom line, inflated. Best to start with positive snow depth change and think it out form there. Or if you have the model data... monitor the EC etc snow depth change and use that as a bottom #.

Minor for snow, and an advisory would possibly not have been issued for ONLY the snow amounts posted, but we're dealing with frozen ground, snow and maybe sleet/freezing rain mix, and maybe e just a little more qpf than what is modeled if the inverted trough proves real. Also, this is a at least a climo advisory event. Might need to deice aircraft. I don't think is melt on contact unless treated surface. Jury may be out on final snow. I'll post the CoCoRAHS finals either Wed or Thu. Probably 32F or below through the entire event nw of I95 and maybe even NYC/LI. NAM BL temps 2C at midnight tomorrow night might be okay at the top of the BL but if the wind is turning north...then I suspect colder CT airmass seeps down across the sound. So yes, minor- however, hazardous untreated.

Thanks... I think NYC is in it now. Impressive collection of EPS lows s of LI 00z/Wed. Nice inflow potential.

WPC Dayshift outlook for Feb 1: Let's stay w general ensembles and hope for the best.

Hi!. The following is a start for the advisory. I think it will eventually need expansion to all of LI. At 6P, I'll add the new regional snowfall forecast. mPing and icy and or/snow covered pavements here we come for a manageable minor advisory event, that still has 1+" snow possibilities for LI, especially if we get the backwash (sewd moving) after 7AM Wednesday, associated with the developing low s of LI. Think we may see some surprises on qpf over 1/4" on LI. TBD.

Understand completely: May be the 12 and 18z 3K NAM can lock in on our qpf and types? That and RGEM HRDPS would be worthy of following. EC already steady now on I80 north.

637AM Sunday: : headline updated to Major near blizzard and added power outages. Major near blizzard Nor'easter coming. I would not plan on driving anywhere on Monday in northern NJ, ne PA, se NYS and ditto CT Monday afternoon-night, MA Monday night. NYC my guess is a foot, possibly more before mixed Monday night. Otherwise, amounts between 1-2 feet from I78 northward with lesser 8-18 inches CT and MA where rain/sleet invades later Monday night. Isolated 30" possible nw NJ, or ne PA into the Catskills by the time this storm ends early Wednesday.. Drifts 3-4 feet. Power outages possible Monday afternoon and night from northern NJ northeastward to CT and Boston from a combination of heavy wetter (heart attack for the hear tcondition vulnerable) snow and northeast wind gusts of 40-55 MPH. Snow starts central NJ around 3 PM, northern NJ-ne PA 6-10P, CT around dawn Monday. Worst of the storm NJ/PA sunrise Monday-midnight Monday night, CT Monday afternoon-night. Coastal flooding may be major near the midnight Monday high tide cycle? Follow NWS. ---- 615AM Saturday: Imperfect probably messy big snowstorm is coming, imperfect in that modeling the past 24 hours is drifting north and suggesting a dry slot late Monday will allow enough warming for sleet (rain LI) to I80 including all of I95 Monday night so that the stratiform burst of 1-2"/hr Heavy snow during Monday, especially afternoon, becomes bands of snow in the interior late Monday night-Tuesday, some areas probably recovering Tuesday with several hours of no precip. So, my own single forecaster point of failure but use of ensembles could be too pessimistic about the sleet/rain intrusion. For NYC... I'll start with 6" with possibly as much 1/2" late 31. Hope that its mostly snow after 00z/2 but even if, snow ratios may be down to 7 or 8 to 1?? I dont' want to cap NYC since am uncertain about dry slot. Sleet/rain/freezing rain may be getting involved Philly to Toms River during Monday morning. There may be a period of near blizzard conditions on LI centered Monday afternoon? BUT, I don't want to call it a blizzard for fear of easily missing criteria. The point of this paragraph, is that I think Monday, especially afternoon should be the worst period of travel and if models continue this, in future cycles through Sunday morning, then I think it would be a recommended no travel for that 6-12 hour period to limit accidents and allow plows to maintain passable-less slippery conditions for first responders. Snow may be wet on LI/Monmouth-northern Ocean Counties in NJ if 6" at 32-33F, we would have power outages... still too early to be sure. CT I84... continue to notice some multimodeled lesser snowfall there, so while I think a big snow there, cautioning myself. Coastal flooding: see NWS statements/flood watches already posted and no change from yesterday with the late Monday evening high tide cycle most favored for flooding (within 2 hours either side of the time of high tide) Graphics are the 00z/30 EPS as a base amount, the 00z/30 EC IR prediction for 06z/Tue showing the dry slot penetration, and the NWS 09z/30 prob for 6" or more of snow by 12z Tues. That's the reasoning basis for this update.

Other than band or two of flurries in the eastern part of our forum Thursday, it looks like this will be too little too late.

Pretty decent sub20F for NYC looks like Fri-Sat mornings in NYC... and so one shot of the coldest looks pretty certain now?

Good there...not quite so safe down here near Culvers Lake. Enjoy. This period between 1/23-2/2 is the way its supposed to be here in winter, in our entire forum. Climo.

Will start an OBS thread for this event (or non in the eyes of many here in NYC, but climo it is)... probably starting this obs-nowcast thread at 7P tonight.

635 AM Monday Jan 25: Added two graphics for the coming extensive minor snow-ice-snow event with main impacts LI-NYC-I95 corridor northwestward to the Adirondacks and New England Could be sneaky icy along the coast. mPING will be helpful. NWS snowfall forecast map added from 5AM this morning (NYC-LI generally less than 1") and also the probabilistic chance of .01 freezing rain. Mostly a Tuesday-Tuesday night snow-sleet event changing to freezing/rain-rain during the afternoon I80 southward possibly going back to snow or flurries Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Advisories already out near DC. Expect it will be briefly slippery everywhere in our forum for a time Tuesday, and probably Tuesday night-Wednesday morning LI-NYC-I80 northward, especially interior. Expect plowing small amount amounts of snow entire I84 corridor with road treatments necessary most of the remaining portion of our forum except possibly just southeast of the I95 corridor. Weak boundary layer winds with a north-northeast drift will probably assist on keeping temps on the colder side of the available guidance. Storm impact of all snow will be larger I84 northward and inclusive of I90 to Boston with decent amounts. This keeps this brief and we'll all be monitoring the models. Hopefully there are no slips/falls/accidents Tuesday-Tuesday night on all untreated surfaces.

Will reassess tomorrow morning. I'm not changing from this morning. Very difficult for me to see avoiding an advisory event for much of the forum except parts of LI and the portions se of I95. The ice mix would be the key component s of I80. Regarding the rest of the area... I think this entire shortwave process is delayed 18-24 hours from when this topic was initiated, for ejection delay out of the Rockies and it's in my opinion stronger. So the topic start end time will probably end up wrong by 18-24 hours too soon, but it looks cold to me with convergence in the isobars, and possible trowel back from the ocean into ne PA on Wednesday and so periods of precip, generally freezing or frozen inland through Wednesday. NYC I think will see measurable snow. Maybe the 00z/25 guidance will sway me down but I don't like the GGEM and RGEM b being pretty decent n of I80. The only thing I'd change on my expectations is to spread decent snowfall across all of CT and I90 and looks to me like 2+ eastern CT I90 for starters. Back in the morning to rereview. Thanks for all the feedback on this topic.

It's not over, but not looking good for much if any snow here Thursday. GEPS and EPS led the way on being down for this event. Again not over, but nothing much enticing, Which means, enjoy whatever we get Tuesday-Wednesday.

Take whatever we can get. SPC SREF snow plumes NYC event for Tuesday-early Wed. Use as you wish... probably good to stay off the high side of the plumes for now and slice an inch off the mean... tho I definitely think 2" for NYC is a good possibility for this pattern.