wdrag

That is valuable - very good!

A few, but can't count on my starting threads, if I'm working PT. I'll definitely add my snowfall reports.

My final on this: Wind event overnight 3/1-2/21 OKX PNS attached. Generally 45-55 MPH with some power outages (per state assessment=minor). Thread was too cold, but aware of it in the 20th-21st etc initial updates. An event occurred but in the end, no hazards (wintry/flooding) except a wind event. Noted GFS op robustness by the 24th update. Per off the record conversation w NCEP. V16 was clearly advantageous last year in parallel w the GFS op (V15), less so, so far this year. Myperception as well, only looking at the northeast USA. Probably an overall improvement upon the current V15 op, at least snow vs rain. No check on temps etc. 000 NOUS41 KOKX 021603 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-030403- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 1103 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport 49 MPH 0234 AM 03/02 CWOP Bridgeport Airport 47 MPH 0952 AM 03/02 ASOS Norwalk 45 MPH 1010 AM 03/02 CWOP Fairfield 42 MPH 0246 AM 03/02 CWOP Danbury Airport 41 MPH 1253 AM 03/02 ASOS ...Middlesex County... Chester Airport 46 MPH 0415 AM 03/02 AWOS ...New Haven County... New Haven 56 MPH 0350 AM 03/02 CWOP Meriden Airport 49 MPH 0553 AM 03/02 ASOS Lighthouse Point 49 MPH 0139 AM 03/02 WXFLOW New Haven Airport 47 MPH 0953 PM 03/01 ASOS Waterbury Airport 44 MPH 1051 PM 03/01 AWOS East Haven 41 MPH 0553 AM 03/02 CWOP Hammonasset 41 MPH 1259 AM 03/02 WXFLOW ...New London County... Groton Airport 55 MPH 0956 AM 03/02 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Montvale 45 MPH 0745 PM 03/01 Trained Spotter Teterboro Airport 43 MPH 0951 PM 03/01 ASOS ...Essex County... Caldwell 46 MPH 1053 PM 03/01 ASOS ...Hudson County... Bayonne 44 MPH 1150 PM 03/01 WXFLOW ...Passaic County... Ringwood 41 MPH 0910 AM 03/02 RAWS ...Union County... 2 NE Roselle 62 MPH 0840 PM 03/01 Trained Spotter Newark Airport 49 MPH 0851 PM 03/01 ASOS Linden Airport 40 MPH 1155 PM 03/01 AWOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... Fordham 46 MPH 0950 PM 03/01 NYSM ...Kings County... Brooklyn College 54 MPH 0110 AM 03/02 NYSM 1 N Coney Island 50 MPH 0459 AM 03/02 Trained Spotter Manhattan Beach 41 MPH 0149 AM 03/02 CWOP ...Nassau County... Bayville 70 MPH 1118 PM 03/01 WXFLOW Bayville 58 MPH 0830 PM 03/01 Mesonet Wantagh 47 MPH 1000 PM 03/01 NYSM Merrick 44 MPH 1116 PM 03/01 CWOP Syosset 41 MPH 1205 AM 03/02 CWOP ...New York County... Midtown Manhattan 49 MPH 1215 AM 03/02 NYSM ...Orange County... Stewart Airport 49 MPH 0145 AM 03/02 AWOS Warwick 48 MPH 1100 PM 03/01 NYSM Montgomery Airport 45 MPH 0854 PM 03/01 AWOS Newburgh 44 MPH 0936 PM 03/01 CWOP Otisville 40 MPH 0850 AM 03/02 NYSM US Military Academy 40 MPH 0255 AM 03/02 RAWS Vails Gate 40 MPH 1243 AM 03/02 CWOP ...Putnam County... Brewster 42 MPH 1210 AM 03/02 NYSM ...Queens County... NYC/La Guardia 49 MPH 1051 PM 03/01 ASOS NYC/JFK Airport 48 MPH 0351 AM 03/02 ASOS Kew Garden Hills 48 MPH 1050 PM 03/01 NYSM Jackson Heights 45 MPH 0153 AM 03/02 CWOP Breezy Point 43 MPH 0443 AM 03/02 WXFLOW ...Richmond County... 2 SE Elizabeth 48 MPH 1130 PM 03/01 NDBC College of Staten Island 44 MPH 0845 PM 03/01 NYSM ...Rockland County... Suffern 44 MPH 0215 AM 03/02 NYSM ...Suffolk County... Eatons Neck 74 MPH 0234 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Stony Brook 69 MPH 0235 AM 03/02 CWOP Baiting Hollow 67 MPH 0133 AM 03/02 CWOP Great Gull Island 61 MPH 0758 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Southold 60 MPH 0345 AM 03/02 CWOP Bay Shore 55 MPH 0100 AM 03/02 Public Islip Airport 53 MPH 0556 AM 03/02 ASOS Southold 53 MPH 1220 AM 03/02 NYSM Napeague 52 MPH 0324 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Westhampton Airport 51 MPH 1153 PM 03/01 ASOS Blue Point 48 MPH 0607 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Fishers Island Airport 48 MPH 0548 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Mecox Bay 48 MPH 1210 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Orient 48 MPH 1111 PM 03/01 CWOP Shirley Airport 47 MPH 0156 AM 03/02 ASOS East Hampton 47 MPH 1235 AM 03/02 AWOS Stony Brook 45 MPH 0335 AM 03/02 NYSM Fire Island CG 45 MPH 0146 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Great South Bay 45 MPH 1221 AM 03/02 WXFLOW East Northport 42 MPH 0326 AM 03/02 CWOP Melville 42 MPH 1140 PM 03/01 CWOP Mattituck 41 MPH 0143 AM 03/02 CWOP N. Babylon 41 MPH 0910 PM 03/01 CWOP ...Westchester County... White Plains Airport 52 MPH 0256 AM 03/02 ASOS Croton 51 MPH 0243 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Tappan Zee Light 14 47 MPH 0148 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Peekskill 41 MPH 1224 AM 03/02 CWOP Armonk 40 MPH 0129 AM 03/02 CWOP ...Connecticut... ...Maritime Stations... Stongington Outer Breakwater 64 MPH 0500 AM 03/02 WXFLOW 2 S Groton 57 MPH 0925 AM 03/02 NDBC 1 ESE Norwalk 52 MPH 1113 PM 03/01 WXFLOW 2 SSE New Haven 52 MPH 0600 AM 03/02 NOS-PORTS USCG Academy 51 MPH 1002 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Quaker Hill 43 MPH 1234 AM 03/02 CWOP ...New York... 19 SSE East Hampton 56 MPH 0200 AM 03/02 NDBC 26 SSE Robert Moses State Pa 54 MPH 0400 AM 03/02 NDBC Robbins Reef, NJ 54 MPH 1100 PM 03/01 NOS-PORTS Shinnecock 54 MPH 0219 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Larchmont Harbor 53 MPH 1146 PM 03/01 WXFLOW 15 S Atlantic Beach 51 MPH 0510 AM 03/02 NDBC 2 N Orient 51 MPH 0715 AM 03/02 Trained Spotter Point O Woods YC 50 MPH 0205 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Fire Island CG 50 MPH 0146 AM 03/02 WXFLOW Montauk Airport 49 MPH 0754 AM 03/02 ASOS Kings Point 46 MPH 0130 AM 03/02 NOS-NWLON City Island 45 MPH 0947 PM 03/01 CWOP &&

PT is not weather related> I work for Sussex County NJ as a part time engineering aide, as long as they'll have me. Guardrail, (now called Guide Rail), and bridge inspections, sometimes a bit of surveying. Have a tablet, walk the roads and bridges and do as asked-taught, much of it on my own. Fortunate to have a PT job like this. I like the outdoors and get's me more familiar with the county i grew up in.

Modeling hope- unrealistic on my part? Taking into account prior page posts by Bluewave and Don; and to this 00z/3 outlooked unfavorable AO/NAO/EPO/PNA, here goes. Suppose it will have to be thread the needle? 500 MB trough is ensembled to return to the central USA by mid month, with a reactivating storm track out of the southern Plains-Ohio Valley. Modeling is trying to juice up the Tenneseee Valley again for a potentially active period March 14-~ April 5. This I think is in keeping with some long ranging impressions (not mine) of an active severe weather season this spring. CFS constantly has been offering snow/ice hopes down here in our forum from mid month onward for a number of cycles, implying high pressure to our north and a storm track trying to move up to and along I80 with a few cutters thrown in. So in essence, the posts I've read the past page or so, all seem to have the correct possibilities. It's simply too early to end snow season. Whether any of these from the 14th onward, provide NYC with more than a half inch of snow I don't know but I'm confident the I84 corridor has several more opportunities for meaningful snowfall into the first week of April. Climo says temps warm and so if it's daytime light snow, probably lots of it melts. First opportunity (no thread since it could CUT). is ~Sunday the 14th. Confluence between Pacific into southern USA with primary jet near 35-37N and the Canadian stream might give us a chance? Not worthy of a thread, as yet, if ever. One of these that follows might bring membership satisfactory closure for the NYC snow season? Reminder: this is said against the backdrop of unfavorable teleconnection indices. MJO... I don't know what role it will play.

Once in a while... i enjoy, but takes lots of time to do justice.

Modeling is trying but you know how that goes... 1 member out of the coming 3000+ leading up the 17th. Hope folks can refrain from a thread til ensemble support, or multiple days GFS/GGEM/EC. I know folks are for want of more snow but it's been a pretty decent winter, especially with expectations generally for a less than stellar winter. To hold off the first 2021, 60 or 70 degree temp til ~the 9th-10th. That's why we have a nice snow cover for the animals to walk and roll on today. Pretty cool and am mentally prepared to see it go. Which brings me to the future of my own thread initiations on the forum. After March 14, probably very-very limited to hazardous winter only - if that, or maybe a flooding rain threat in summer, but potentially nil. Certainly no severe's as last summer (had too many svr threads anyway). The plan is for me to get back to some part time work March 15. Enjoyment of family-activities, property landscaping, late summer travel will preclude me from initiating threads. Just too much for me to maintain a close eye upon ea thread, as well as wrap-ups.I feel obligated once Initiated, that I need to stay on top of them (helps keep me more conservative). Just can't do that once am back working. So... have had plenty of top contributions in the forum that have helped me look at new approaches and for the most part, the long lead threads have been of value. After March 14, probably hands off for me. Been fun to be a witness to the utility of large scale modeling predictability. We're sooooo far ahead of where we were, even a decade or two ago.

I agree. Have looked and looked and thru the 14th, think there is little to pique my interest. I'm turning to the long rangers hereon, for a look at MJO and potential 15th onward? It seems the jet is depressed a bit after the 13th, and whiles AO and NAO are positive, timing could be everything as as the mid south gets wet again. I haven't quite given up on Sunday (late?) rom the northwest flow, (light event) but for now, no modeling support, so it's best to move on, I think.

Reviewing the original thread starter narrative below. Ended up further north, no advisory but a bit of snow just inside of I95. At least we knew something was coming that had qpf, and small snow for our forum. I look at this as worthy. Better than nothing occurring and of value to some of our members and model detection 7 days in advance, again. ll the data is here for review. 301P/20: While 12z/20 GEFS guidance was delayed for full review (and therefore NAEFS), there is potential for a light or even moderate fast moving (east or east northeast) precip event. Depends in part whether the primary low crosses the St Lawrence Valley, or whether the front sags south of the forum with a wave of low pressure scooting eastward on it, as a fairly strong wave heads east from the Great Lakes. Ensembles at this writing are not favorable for much of an event but individual models for the past 2 days have proposed an advisory snow either in our forum, or south of us, across the Virginias/Delmarva. The latest 18z/20 WPC guidance basically has no qpf in our forum for this event, so it could easily be a bust. I think some wintry precip will happen here, but could be 100% wrong. Let's leave the door open for a couple of days and see if this can target a portion of our area with an inch or more of snow. If snow does occur but only I84 corridor, then there won't be an obs thread (fewer members). TBD. .

Adding the 2 day qpf. Snowfall via Co-CoRAHS was Trace. Will add LSR reports late today. Rainfall for this 2 day period ended up 1/4-1/2" North and 0.5- 0.9" south.

Unless I misunderstood the above: the operational GFS had this, but no other model 06z 2/23 cycle. Have attached the image. It didn't end up quite as far south as the GFS (~504 1000-500 thickness), but certainly the OP was on it. Soon after the GEFS cycles. Here is from the 2/28-3/1 thread on Wed morning 2/24 -00z/24 cycle, which the GFS pegged for it's most intense phase in our area 06z/2. I didn't want to believe it. What this does, is tell me that the V16 upgrade would not have caught this so early (late to the table). A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night (but not the GFS op ferocity which doesn't have much support). - written 2/24A ~655A So while it seems the GFS v16 will be an improvement on the current GFSv156 op, I know it won't always be better and I don't know to how much of an improvement the V16 will be. ALSO, outliers in long range, sometimes become the closest to reality at whatever future lead time. Most of the time outliers are caste away as no good, only sometimes turning out to be the best predictor. Not easy to know that the outliers are truly not of value.

I think today and generally this week through the 7th is why I'm not much a fan of the EPO as a predictor of the ps here in the northeast. Probably great for stable patterns but even that, I'm unsure. Certainly doesn't look too good for this week inclusive of today as predictor? Counter comments welcome.

Bunch of power outages late yesterday and overnight from wind gusts 45-55MPH in parts of the area. I think the strongest winds have occurred or will havre occurred by 10AM. HRRR has slow diminishment thereafter.

First wind gusts I've seen 40kt or greater nearby to our northwest, in the previous hour ending around 4PM. KALB: Albany, Albany Intl Arpt, United States [44kt, 23m/s] KBFD: Bradford, Bradford Regional Airport, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KELZ: Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KPSF: Pittsfield, Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KSWF: Newburgh / Stewart, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

It must be in the very recent years that emphasis has shifted from NAO to AO for ne USA snow. I've no skill at LR except it does seem that NAO has be - to make it more favorable.

IF this sounding verifies this evening just nw of NYC, you'll possibly hear of a snow squall warning. Unsure whether this can verify this close to the city. Has wind to 40 kt in the event.

Wantage NJ as of 625A: 0.56" past 19 hours.

Monday morning March 1 625AM Update: Good to see the sleet obs yesterday in our distant nw suburbs. Below restates what is obviously modeled and discussed in prior days updates: I moved the timing up an hour and changed the title to add OBS-NOWCAST as well. Will have summary maps of rain, any snowfall, and possibly wind gusts 45+ in tomorrow's (Tuesday) 10AM wrapup-review. Tonight 7PM/1 -3AM/2. Turning sharply colder with bands of flurries and snow showers causing a few areas of hazardous travel as temps fall from near freezing at 7PM to between 5 and 15 above by dawn Tuesday I84, and near 20 NYC, along with gusty northwest winds 35-45 MPH and wind chill down just below zero. Most areas only flurries, but a half inch of snow is possible a few locations ne PA, extreme nw NJ and especially se NYS, CT and maybe even e LI. A wind advisory is posted with NYC wind chill close to zero at sunrise Tuesday.

Good Monday morning everyone! It's March 1. For the I84 corridor. Looks like a cold first week of March and generally mild the second week, after the 8th. Below restates what is obviously modeled. Tonight 7PM/1 -3AM/2. Turning sharply colder with bands of flurries and snow showers causing a few areas of hazardous travel as temps fall from near freezing at 7PM to between 5 and 15 above by dawn Tuesday, along with gusty northwest winds 35-45 MPH and wind chill down just below zero. Most areas only flurries, but a half inch of snow is possible a few locations. A wind advisory is posted. This coming weekend: A period of light snow is possible? Northwest flow clipper-reinforcing cold front...not the large strong ocean storm modeled by the EPS. Whatever snowpack greater than 2 inches that is on the ground at sundown today has a good chance of remaining nearly intact through March 8th, with only minor melt along the edges. As written in prior posts. Wantage, High Point still in pretty deep snowpack. Was at exit 8 I84 (Cobb) at 2000 feet yesterday. VERY impressive deep pack there.

EPS is coming back closer but long ways to go with GEPS/GEFS nil so far, as well as the NAEFS. What is becoming somewhat evident is a northwest flow reinforcing cold front that may have a clipper like low attached and a bit of light snow for the forum, mainly north of LI/80. Far distant i time but not complete closure. I'm more interested in the northwest flow reinforcing clipper potential while EPS has a close call large-strong ocean storm for the shoreline only.

650A Sunday/28: Ttile dropped snow from the snow to rain scenario. Significant 21 hour rainfall (1/2" I84 to 3/4-1.5" NJ/LI) this afternoon into Monday mid morning with snowmelt but not enough for a problem. Could see the need for something water related a part of urban ne NJ by Monday morning? Dense fog possible tonight with mild moist air over chilly ground. I think there will be spotty icing highest peaks of the Poconos/Catskills/Litchfield Hills this afternoon-tonight but no significant treated road problem. Small chance that rain ends as wet snow forenoon Monday I84 high terrain with little or no impact, if it does end as snow. Monday evening from roughly 8P -4A Tuesday, flurries likely to near NYC with a band or two of snow squalls CT/NYS/ne PA and possibly extreme nw NJ that could coat roads with a hazardous 1/2" accumulation in 30 minutes, along with gusty northwest winds to near 45 MPH, a few minutes of reduced visibility under 1/2mile and icy roads due to temps plummeting from near freezing at 8PM to the teens by dawn Tuesday (20-22F NYC?) and wind chill near zero CT/NYS/PA. We'll see if the models back off but from what i can tell, the early GFS op (V15) has been onto this from many days ago, much more so than any other model. NYC either no snow or a Trace of flurries. Some of the modeling suggests a band of squalls crosses from CT through e LI later Monday night.

For those that still have snowpack that is 3" or more Tuesday morning-March 2nd interior se NYS, extreme nw NJ/ne PA, you should still have some snowpack remaining into March 8. This last line I probably won't remember to track but that's what some of the modeling suggests.

One run of the V16 I think had quite an event...one member of interest out of the hundreds that that will pour out of the models. the upcoming next week. Just showed it as potential, but havent tracked the image and i certainly didn't say this would happen. Too many burns on stuff beyond 7 days. What hasn't happened, to my recollection, is a sudden modeling change 72 hours in advance that goes from nothing to a snowstorm. While I can't rule this out in the future, I do think modeling has improved so much the past few years that the so-called SURPRISE snowstorm around NYC is seldom, if at all. Credit the researchers-modeling capabilities-science. Think that's why we need to monitor ensembles immediately after our interest is piqued with a ballistic single member. We're better off. That way life's good hours don't disappear wasted, in the quest for the elusive snowstorm. This change in NAO is our immediate shot for an event. If not this coming week, then I suspect we have to wait another week or longer as it looks mild to me 8th-15th. However, I am curious about why the jet is depressed (suspiciously low heights southern USA toward the 15th). I've no explanation (unless it's MJO related). If those heights are that low in the south, then i get interested in what eventually follows since short waves will scoop the Gulf moisture. Pretty substantial jet resumes by mid March around 35N and the CFS has for the most part been targeting that 35N axis with heavier than normal qpf th'e next 30 days, while we're sometimes in and sometimes north of that axis.

Doesn't look an event to me, unless we get a clipper that dives southeast from the Great Lakes and passes s of LI around the 7th-8th. Long ways to go. Think I'd look for the clipper as a 'hope' for any widespread synoptic scale low pressure driven snow event, otherwise we have an unusually long essentially dry period here that lasts from March 2nd beyond March 9.

Graphic's ob... time CoCoRaHs ob vs yours, how we measure... and location. a tenth difference... good enough for me.