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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Added a statement from WPC this morning:
  2. wdrag
    No modeling insights: Drew my conclusions from modeling consensus. Patience needed. 554AM Friday 1/29: 00z06z/29 GEFS/00z/29 GEPS are the heavies including 00z-06z/29 V16 and now the 00z/29 UKMET. Yikes? Where is the EPS? SO... big snowstorm potential but rather than overcommit, especially since WPC followed the EPS downgrade fairly close. Still 3 days away. Watch the NAM trends... this is it's game, imo. NOT much change from previous due to still variable model solutions. Left rain in for LI and I95 sewd sometime Monday afternoon-early Tue?; changed ice to ice pellets, and held onto wind event which would probably be restricted to the coasts. Added coastal flooding: too long a duration of gale force ne winds acting upon an astronomically normal tide will result in a substantial surge. Coastal flooding could be multiple high tide cycles beginning midday Monday through midday Tuesday and current outlooks are for the greatest threat with the midnight Monday night high tide cycle. Minor coastal flooding seems probable for one of the high tide cycles, but moderate not out of the question. Stay tuned to NWS products as we draw closer Timing UNCERTAIN: Held the 31st for the start in our forum, but probably restricted to PA/NJ/LI, with the heaviest snow there slated for sometime Monday before a possible dry slot changes to mixed pcpn parts of the I95 corridor?. The I84 region may have to wait til sunrise Monday and I90 possibly til Monday afternoon?? Not worried about the ending yet, since first it has to start, but probably bands circling south and southeastward through at least part of Tuesday. EPS/EC 12z/28 and 00z/289 surprisingly southeast of multiple op's and ensembles. WPC overnight responded southeastward. The upcoming planned March implementation of the GFS v16 was quite robust again on the 00z and a bit less so on the 06z/29 cycle so rather than shift too far south and have to go back north, am holding onto a widespread snowstorm. Best axis: ? unknown. Long duration, especially NJ/PA. There could be heavy snow in the comma head deformation zone north of modeled qpf, but far too early to find consensus on the comma head, due to modeling differences. Not a major concern but monitoring for WET 32-33F snow near the coasts... not going into this any further till we have consensus on temps/amounts.
  3. wdrag
    fwiw: coms problems somewhere. Some of the WPC probabilistic and D4-7 not displaying properly and the GFS 06z V16 is running a tad late.
  4. wdrag
    Regionalize. If it stands out... it's no good if a loner and a typo. Thanks, Walt
  5. wdrag
    More messenger: NWS is tightening the collaboration with CPC. Note the changes ne USA issued around 3P. Suspect the story headline changes tomorrow afternoon from W coast to the eastern USA, so NJ-PA-MD-VA's EM not surprised Monday morning, going home for the weekend. OKX has had 6" in its HWO since early this morning, which i think a good move. PHI has gone to the enhanced HWO color coded...not good imo in that it won't flag snow potential beyond 72 hours. However, it is what the NWS is gravitating to so that leaves forums/private sector available to attempt to fill the gap. They do have one graphic out: It's recently added since 3P and attached. No EM briefing package yet, nor do I expect today.
  6. wdrag
    I have no answers... just a messenger... 12z/28 NAEFS slightly slower which fits the ensembles you've seen. Just as cold but with BL temp problems LI-PHL. NAEFS is a good look for the I95s corridor PHL-BOS with the usual I95 sewd uncertainty.
  7. wdrag
    Did you see my just 10 min ago post. It's posted..rudimentary. Sometimes, if the model misses a vendor call window, it may not get caught up til later. Think there have been some internet problems on the east coast late this morning. No factual info.
  8. wdrag
    Yes... 26th my burn. Love the interest by everyone and keeping everyone up to speed. Definitely of interest.
  9. wdrag
    WPC keeps stats as does NHC, in season... I don't know the answer. Think the general consensus is EC/EPS best and tends to be conservative on qpf. GFS clearly a more convective model than the EC and a high bias on qpf, tho suspect if it flags big... need to take an extra look. Sometimes it's fantastic...many others... secondary to other models. GGEM- I like it. Many do not. I do know this winter tells the truth on all these threads. IF the GGEM doesn't have it big, forget it! Time after time. Folks can look back. Doesn't mean that the GGEM is more accurate areally & placement but does mean it garners, at least my respect. Models evolve and so results may not be valid 2 years from now. If models were static as back in the 60s/70s... then your proposal would be more useful. There may be others that can provide more info... i do agree, 500MB does not do it for me. I don;'t get a chance to view many WPC qpf/extended discussions but they may tuck some info in there. Was good that someone posted the EFP discussion from WPC earlier this morning. Thank you.
  10. wdrag
    Hi everyone, Despite the stark southward shift-shrift of the 12z/28 EPS, the 12z/28 GFSv16 op (seen previously I think) and GGEM op continue on course with WPC's 16z qpf...if not heavier. Attached the 12z/28 EPS (last) and the 12Z GGEM panels and 240 hour snowfall in MM. 25MM=1" (reds). BIG but only an op. Its' mostly rain or ice for 2/5ish so that is not a snowfall contributor. The good news...GGEM still on board. Whether that's right or wrong??????? What this all tells me... wait on commitment north-south or in between. My gut tells me more northwest but that's not science. It could be as one poster ID wish casting. Need to wait it out. There is lots of interactive sensitivity that will take a few more cycles to convince us one way or the other.
  11. wdrag
    You're right... I used to pay more attention to this model and it's global stat ranking but over the last year that I've tried to use this...much more miss than hit. just another member of the 12z cycle, serving as downside reminder for those who want snow near 40N. Would like to see UK ensemble but have no source.
  12. wdrag
    Is i not the trend of GFS to virtually always be too far south on these ne storms at days 3 and beyond? If it doesn't close off, then it's close now, but if it closes off, then I expect a northward drift to the GFS solutions.
  13. wdrag
    Internet slow here in nw NJ. Another WPC placeholder till we all can fully evaluate all the modeling. This is the 12z/28 WPC D4-8, may be difficult to view? It's not yet updated on normal displays there, but my interp...they are going more and more in, certainly more likely than the 00z/28 stat version off D4-8.
  14. wdrag
    Anyway, thought some of us might like this as a placeholder. 1553z/28 WPC D4-5 Hope it's right for all of us. Still plenty of variability.
  15. wdrag
    As a placeholder, thought you'd like to see this from WPC D4-5s. AGREED 100% Don..this for my forecaster friends in New England and elsewhere who doubt. At least one or two others have noticed. I've no answers, except to hold onto ensembles/WPC and then use your own judgement. Just have to hang on ...all those EPS's posted earlier... they could be wrong, but it would imo be a formidable EPS bust on the axis of max snowfall. (note not amount but axis). This whole system has above normal SST's off NJ/DE. That may aid development? Later, Walt
  16. wdrag
    V16 and GGEM are now slowly posting.
  17. wdrag
    Couple of notes: I think there is a national weather models comms problem. GGEM/GFSV16 seem delayed. RGEM is in through 00z/Monday. Could b e a lonnnng slow wait for snow to arrive... wouldn't rush it. Go with I80 Monday morning at the latest, but possibly not I90 til Monday evening? LONNNG ways to go.
  18. wdrag
    Here are some GEFS 06z/28 plumes for LGA... use with caution but you'll like these. No consensus in this data yet except 850 and sfc temp. On the qpf and snow, try to refrain from buying into the extremes above the mean axis and think a little more conservatively. Avoid disappointment. I won't post other ensemble guidance since we're into a new 12z cycle. in order of appearance: QPF, sfc T, 850 T, type (like to have 80% for assured all snow), snowfall which is all over the place.
  19. wdrag
    You're very welcome. I might be too strong on the posts... but I just try to cut to the chase.. lots of life can go over the bridge if too involved. Not an excuse, just a reality that I try to keep in mind. That said... Nothing different from the posts. My guess is 6+ with heaviest n of I84 but that differs from WPC so take me w grain of salt and let's rereview late today on the primary thread. Also, pay attention to the other posters here and elsewhere who see negatives. I try to be conservative but push. Still plenty of uncertainty and yes, I can see only 3" extreme nw NJ and se NYS if half of this is sleet.... I do think we'll get to 6 before any sleet mix. I can't see "ensemble" EPS GEFS soundings with the access to data platforms that I rent now, so that's a disadvantage. I make lots of presumptions from the datasets that I review, and maybe too HASTILY. Later, Walt
  20. wdrag
    fwiw... fluffy large flakes of snow here in Wantage NJ 925-938A. still ongoing. won't be surprised at dustings beyond the Poconos next 24 hours ending Noon Friday before its too cold and dry. Hoping we can muster 0.2" tonight here in Wantage NJ.
  21. wdrag
    Here's the EPS cyclically ending about the same time (4th) 10x1 snow ratios inclusive of sleet. The runs prior to the 27th included snowfall for the previous storm north of I80 but I think you can see the EPS consistency, so far. I think wherever you evaluate the consistent centroid axis, that's the safest for 6+... with greater variability and potential for disappointment along the edges (I95), Adirondacks-n VT on the nw side (Comma head deformation banding). Also, fwiw... while its snowing in NJ late Sunday or early Monday, folks east of Hudson may be wondering when the snow arrives as its turn to the northeast may be a little slow and dry air devoured. Latest is first (00z/28). and proceeds backward sequentially in time.
  22. wdrag
    Thanks to all...keep adding your views-models. I and models to date may have EASILY missed something. I myself think I80 in NJ even Sussex County should be a little concerned about sleet but otherwise, there is little doubt something that will need snowplows/blowers is coming to a fairly large part of the area along or nw of I95. Did anyone notice Kuchera halving the snowfall for the valleys (partly downslope shadow, partly slightly warmer valley temps). If some of these EC temps are correct, we're talking snow ratio's dropping under 10 to 1 all of NJ after the initial few hours of snow-sleet. By the way... to those who maybe were dissappointed about only 1-2" of snow on your driveway-sidewalk on 1/26-earl;y 27. Hope it was shoveled/cleared yesterday, cause if not, it's with you as a slippery surface, probably through at least Thursday morning Feb 4. That's another reason why advisories sometimes are of value...they trigger thoughts about clearing snow from paths etc. I digressed but hopefully with a little added value. I'll post the runup of EPS ensembles very shortly. Enjoy the wintry feel. I love it, as did my energetic dog on his morning walk.
  23. wdrag
    will post all the EPS ensembles leading up to this for the past 4 days...will get that done 830-9A. walking the dog.
  24. wdrag
    612AM/28 headline update: added 6+" to the headline, best chance nw of I95. By 830A will add the multiple cycles of EPS supporting guidance. Overnight WPC D4-6 guidance still less than ideal but does not include much if any of the 00z/28 ensembles which are heavier than what is added here (hopefully correctly trended model guidance?). There is a pretty good chance of eventual rain involvement on or just se of I95, but the front end of this Nor'easter should produce snowfall for the entire area before a possible mess. Not a beast but uncertain potential for a major snowstorm (1 foot+) for part of the forum, probably closer to the I84 corridor or even north of there. Let's enjoy the ride there and appreciate whatever we get-this sets my rain concerns about the I95 corridor southeastward. Max gusts still seem near 50 MPH a part of LI and maybe the NJ coast. There is potential for minor coastal flooding with the Feb 1 high tide cycle-fortunately not astronomically high tides. Added graphics are WPC D4,5 3"+snow graphics, there total qpf forecast (seems a little low but has to be considered), the EPS base 10-1 snowfall (multiple successive cycles almost identical) and the GEFS prob for >6" of snowfall which focused my concern for rain/sleet I95 sewd.
  25. wdrag
    I didn't double check... CoCoRAHS. I have to accept. Might be higher terrain?
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