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50+knot gusts since 11A through 1215P. KAOH: Lima, Lima Allen County Airport, OH, United States [57kt, 29m/s] KDAY: Dayton, Cox Dayton Intl Arpt, OH, United States [57kt, 29m/s] KDFI: Defiance, Defiance Memorial Airport, OH, United States [51kt, 26m/s] KFDY: Findlay, Findlay Airport, OH, United States [53kt, 27m/s] KFFO: Dayton / Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KFWA: Fort Wayne, IN, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KGRR: Grand Rapids, Gerald R. Ford Intl Arpt, MI, United States [55kt, 28m/s] KGUS: Grissom AFB / Peru, IN, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KIND: Indianapolis, Indianapolis Intl Arpt, IN, United States [57kt, 29m/s] KMIE: Muncie, Delaware County-Johnson Field, IN, United States [56kt, 29m/s] KOSU: Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KOWX: Ottawa, OH, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KRWL: Rawlins, Rawlins Municipal Airport, WY, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KTOL: Toledo, Toledo Express Airport, OH, United States [53kt, 27m/s] KVLL: Troy/Oakland, MI, United States [56kt, 29m/s]

Several SVR's in OH now.

Minor wind damage reports now in se PA via mPING...1" limbs breaking near HAR/ABE.

Last 3 hours of wind and hail reports to the NWS ending around 1150A

Keep the info coming .. I'll be offline from 1P-6P. Granddaughter. Thanks for the posts on the upgrade. We'll see if we get lightning...some of modeling has scattered lightning and pea sized hail. Wind forecast discussion holds as earlier posted. NWS may issue SVR's without lightning to highligh[t the 60 knot speed of the squall line. I add a graphic as to what is happening near 11A. Power outages becoming widespread minor across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Aside from over 100 stations with 40+knot gusts in the last hour (midwest/Ohio Valley Great Lakes), the following have 50+ knot gusts very recently. KFDY: Findlay, Findlay Airport, OH, United States [53kt, 27m/s] KFWA: Fort Wayne, IN, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KGUS: Grissom AFB / Peru, IN, United States [52kt, 27m/s] KMIE: Muncie, Delaware County-Johnson Field, IN, United States [56kt, 29m/s] K

I didn't initially know PHI had an advisory when looking at their map, I saw the green flood advisory superceded (hid) the brown wind advisory.

Mount Holly NWS office. OKX is Upton-Brookaven. BOX is Taunton (Boston).

Low level lapse rate.... if its' isothermal or inverted, transfer from above is unlikely. Today's modeled sounding looks marginally unstable enough to grab up to 950-925MB.

Good Sunday morning everyone, No changes in the topic philosophy except to delay 1 hour. Please follow local warnings/statements/advisories. Continues potent as advertised the last two days. The question is mixing down. Wind advisories continue for PHI/OKX. My expectation continues for damaging wind and power outages, with wind advisory criteria via squall line even back across much of NJ and NYC and ridges se NYS. Most powerfull wind potential of 60-65 MPH is for LI/coastal CT. Whether we equal or exceed 60 MPH is debatable. 50's expected and we shall see what that does to trees/power. Upstream OHIO and western NYS should see quite a burst this morning-midday. Added graphics: Max gusts from the operational HRRR in MPH (EC 2-4 MPH stronger in some places). Experimental HRRRX timing of the squall line at 7P, 9P. (this is a bit slower than the topic starter. Experimental potential wind gusts from the HRRRX (you can see how it extends north into the CT River Valley - white = 50 KT/58MPH). For planning purposes, that is what I'd be planning for, especially when you look at 3K NAM wind profile, turbulent transfer graphics. The sounding itself doesn't look quite unstable enough for me in the low layers for LGA (think we need 59F+ and prefer lower 60s temp to increase the low level lapse rate) but the squall line may do the damage and I expect 40-45kt gusts at LGA/JFK and wont surprise at 53kt but the sounding-mixing is critical and so doubts do exist about more than 45KT NYC itself. Here is the early morning discussion from SPC on the marginal risk. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough will move quickly east-northeastward across the southern Great Lakes region today. The system will become negatively tilted as a band of strong large-scale ascent moves into the central Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the central Appalachians with a pre-frontal trough developing ahead of the front. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the pre-frontal trough at the start of the period across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This line will move quickly eastward into the central Appalachians by midday. Ahead of the line, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture will exist with surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s F. This will be enough for weak destabilization ahead of the line. By afternoon, RAP forecast soundings have peak instability reaching the 200 to 400 J/kg range. This combined with extreme deep-layer shear of 100 to 110 kt and 40 to 50 kt winds just above the surface, should enable a fine line to develop. The fine line is expected to quickly move across the Appalachian crest eastward into the foothills and coastal areas during the late afternoon and early evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with this line of storms. A marginal risk has been introduced in this outlook for much of Pennsylvania, Maryland and northern Virginia extending eastward to the Mid-Atlantic coast. 603A/15

NOT the entire area: This downward transfer of momentum will most easily occur where the temperature reaches near 59F which I think will be the NJ coast, across LI/CT. It's also where modeling has constantly cyclically emphasized strongest wind. I may be ~1 hour too fast on on the event but want to recheck tomorrow. I am pretty sure the squall line will be moving east at about 60-70MPH so the strongest gusts should be for a ~30 minute period (at most?) followed by a 1 hour lull then an opportunity for a westerly wind gust 40-50 MPH for an hour two, and then 3 hours after cap, winds should settle a bit, but still fairly windy Monday. No guarantees on 60 MPH but I think with some trees (oaks etc) still leaved (extra capturing sail), somewhat softer ground due to recent rains, I think there is a pretty good chance of pockets of tree uproots/limbs down, power outages. Modeling so far is not tamping down the risk. Maybe tomorrow morning we'll lose 5 knots on the gusts? Even so, I think it's wise to prepare for a few minutes of chaotic winds, rainfall "rates" of 1.5"/hr and possible interruptions of electric - internet service in CT/LI and I'm thinking now back to the nearest 5 miles of the NJ coast as well. Additionally ridge tops in nw NJ/se NYS/ne PA may also experience this, but am a little less convinced there. Let's check again tomorrow and see if the forecast needs downward adjusting. I am pretty sure a few of us will be reporting some damage-power outages Sunday evening, mainly between 6P-10P. Not...last Augusts Isais massive outages but for some, there should be interruptions.

Cant add much more confidence ar 450P. Will rereview tomorrow morning. OKX has a wind advisory going... that should work at a minimum. Until I see model winds come down from what has been posted by all here today, I think power outages and wind damage-pockets... especially central-eastern LI northward through the CT River Valley at least up to BDL. There are some helicity tracks, lightning and pea hail in the HRRR for se NYS into nw CT. As SPC and others note... instability marginal for lightning but worthy to monitor and also any splitting of the squall line into segments and associated backing of wind in the line to se or east. (pres falls and a small chance of mess low moving rapidly n in the squall line. Will reevaluate tomorrow morning, including any downplaying of the event, if from my view it's needed.

Radar-sensor total for the entire event added. Will do the same Monday morning. From the legend most of our area has 1+ with pockets 1/2-1" NNJ, SE NYS-CT. the 2.5+ has expanded in central NJ. Will try to add CoCoRAHS 3 day totals if available, around 10A today. Should have brief heavy showers and a squall Sunday afternoon evening. Amounts generally 1/4-1" with best chance 1" seeming to be se NYS-CT. Fast moving squall line itself probably wont last longer than 30 minutes. Separate thread for the wind damage-power outage portion which focuses on LI/CT. Enjoy this bright day.

Good Saturday morning everyone, No significant change to the topic. 00z-06z/14 modeling is a bit stronger. I think LI/CT eastward have a problem tomorrow evening. We'll see if the modeling holds. SPC has now added a slight chance of thunder to our area in their D2 discussion and reasoned for possible future changes. LLJ intensifies as it approaches LI/CT. Have added HRRRX graphics for wind gusts (legend has the numbers). Shear continues strong with turbulent turnover up to 950 mb, within range of 50 knot gusts LI/CT. Also have screen shot of the HRRRX squall line position around 7PM Sunday (faster than other modeling). Cells modeled to be moving 60-65 kt. You can see the 3K NAM profile for LGA tomorrow evening, and now the 00z/14 GEFS has much higher probs for 40 and 50 MPH gusts. Many of the models appear a bit slower but the HRRRX continues on track with yesterdays RGEM. It's possible the window of opportunity might b e 1 hour fast but otherwise, I'd be thinking pockets of damaging wind on LI/CT Sunday evening.

Low to moderate confidence for a damaging wind event (scattered pockets). We're about 48 hours away and within a time that we should be looking for a possible significant event. Not a lock for damaging south wind gust 40-60 MPH in squalls, with an isolated SVR thunderstorm associated with a cold frontal passage, or... brief westerly wind gust to 45-50 MPH within 3 hours of the CFP - associated with strong dry air advection and modest pressure rises. The NAM/UK/EC have 65-75 kt winds near 850 MB at about 7PM Sunday over LI. RGEM even stronger. Op GFS is weakest. As we draw closer to Sunday afternoon, intensity of the wind fields and instability-and any squall lines will need reassessments. The upper 50s SST may limit transfer but lapse rates and any squall lines/kinks or breaks in the lines will be important discriminators for a sizable power outage event on LI/CT. Further west... if damage is to occur in NJ/se NYS, I'll look at hill towns first, and then along the immediate NJ coast, and especially IF, the currently modeled wind fields maintain intensity and can begin sooner as per the RGEM, which is the strongest of the models that I've seen from the 12z-18z/13 cycles. So, to avoid a damaging wind gust, NAM/RGEM/ECMWF/UKMET 65kt+ wind gusts need to weaken 10-15 kt, or a triple point low forms just s of LI. Have three 12z/13 RGEM graphics (slower than the NAM) 4P-7P-10P, added a prob for wind gusts 40+ MPH by the weaker 12z/13 GEFS. Added 18z/13 3K NAM turbulence Richardson # overturning graphic for LGA that is solid .25 up about 925 MB which may favor spotty mixing on the southerly flow and more widespread mixing on the slightly weaker westerly flow behind the front. Also added the 3K NAM modeled wind field from the 18z/13 3K NAM---also for LGA. EC has 3 successive cycles of 40+ MPH for LI/CT and past two cycles 50-60 MPH. Uncertainty on 60 MPH but confidence for ~40, scattered 50 MPH is at at least moderate. RGEM timing below is slower than the 3KNAM. By the way...models have the showers moving east at 62kt. 722P/13

Will begin a low to moderate confidence Damaging wind and/or SVR (HSLC) topic by 730PM for Sunday 4P-10P.

Here we present the 12z/13 3K NAM for Sunday, 21z evolving to a quite a line at 23z/15 and 00z/16. If this continues in future cycles and the EC continues to advertise 40-60MPH gusts, will start a damaging wind topic to wrap up this 5 day event. For now, to me, it's a possibility but am a little concerned about buying in yet. (However, utils might like to know this possibility before late today, for contingency planning purposes). At 1155A I added the 12z/13 RGEM... It's a little slower and a little more robust earlier. (21z/15; 00z and 03z/16 added). interesting to see if this is reasonable.

Eta contribution: As we are all aware... Eta had headed northeast from the coastal Carolinas... as they say ... safely out to sea--- EXCEPT for mariners and those on any cruises. However: I've just borrowed from a highly regarded discussion of Eta and the probable PRE (predecessor rainfall event) that occurred in the N Carolina yesterday. The paragraph is not mine... but I think confirms... that Eta moisture or nearly circulation moisture did reach our area Wednesday-early Thursday. Maps of 700-hPa heights, temperatures, winds, and IVT show a direct moisture transport connect from TS Eta all the way to New England at 0000 UTC 12 Nov (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime/standard.php?domain=conus&variable=IVT_conv. The maps suggest that this moisture flux convergence existed along and ahead of an advancing cold front in the confluent equatorward entrance region of a strong 80+ m/s upper-level jet centered over northern New England and adjacent Canada.

Good morning again, Numbers slowly adding up in the dreary pattern that has bright sunshine slated for tomorrow and back to dreary Sunday afternoon. CoCoRAHS two days added, plus NYS mesonet for the entire Wed-Fri morning events, and the radar assessment for the entire event(s)so far. My guess is just about everyone will have 1+ inches by 1159PM Sunday, and the isolated 3" in Ocean County will increase in coverage, with a lot of 1.5's now ending up ~2".. Not much change on timing the ending of todays drizzle-rain... maybe delaying the ending time by 30 minutes to an hour from the 6am update.

Good Friday morning everyone, RGEM has been the best model in the past day or so regarding the qpf for the daylight hours yesterday, overnight and today. Am expecting it to perform very well today, and Sunday. Widespread drizzle early this morning grows into showery rains of probably moderate intensity for the I95 corridor eastward across LI-CT later this morning. It ends west of the Hudson River into nw NJ around 1PM, and NYC-coastal NJ around 2-3P and eastern LI CT 3P-5P. Expect another 0.1 to .25" from 7AM onward except less than 0.1" extreme nw NJ into Orange and Ulster counties. Flurries Catskills on Saturday. Otherwise a nice M/S day. Sunday: Am on the fence about a separate damaging wind event topic. For now, keeping it internal to this topic since am not sure how much wind can transfer downward from above 950MB. Suggest - continue following the RGEM for widespread 1/4-1" event...heaviest probably se NYS/CT/LI. Drizzle-rain develops Noon-3PM, then expect a band of moderate to heavy showers with slight chance of embedded thunderstorms racing east between 4P-9P, then dwindles to scattered showers or nothing shortly after the CFP. ECMWF rudimentary wind gust forecast is widespread brief 40-50 MPH with isolated 60 MPH possible, especially CT/LI in the convective band. Make it a good day-614A/13

No changes from the morning update. From now through midnight Sunday night 0.25"-1.5" new rainfall with periods of light to moderate rain this evening, mostly I95 corridor eastward, then widespread rain-showers tomorrow morning-early afternoon for 3-9 hours...longest duration I95 corridor eastward. A 2-5 hour wide band of convection expected between 4P-10P Sunday, may be accompanied by a G 40-50MPH and rain should be briefly moderate to heavy. Prior to 4P Sunday...there could be a little drizzle or light rain in early afternoon. Will rereview Friday morning. Have no plans for a subtopic svr, unless SPC outlooks then I'll break something out. Needs rereview the next couple of mornings. Wantage 0.61" for the entire event. Expect to be close to 1" here by the time this 5 day period completes Sunday night.

Just my last update on CoCoRAHS D1 qpf ending this morning. here will be two day CoCoRAHS totals posting sometime tomorrow morning as well as two day radar totals. Will do ditto Saturday morning and a wrap Monday morning. Sunday may be looking better for decent amounts?? .60 in this part of Wantage Nj now. We're on the low side of all this first rain batch.

Pivatol Weather as delivered the 12z/12 3K NAM: here is the accumulated MODELed qpf from 18z today-18z Friday (24 hr 1P today-1P Friday). Has a chance of being halfway decent. Wantage storm total now .58.

Wantage NJ...rainfall rate now Heavy: 0.35"/hr as of 835A. Now 0.55" since RB around noon yesterday (drizzle prior to that).