wdrag

Ranks tied for 13th Feb heaviest. Thanks.

807AM Thursday the 11th. One event closing out this morning and the the OBS thread will have a CoCoRAHS post around 11A, and a two day summary Saturday at 10AM. Whats coming? I dropped the wind event from the original post on the 5th and also the coldest of the season NYC. Nothing the 12th (my prior concern but unmodeled). 13th.. appears snow or sleet develops late Saturday, probably after dark and ends sometime Valentines Day. Details to be determined. Current modeled warming aloft near 850 MB suggests mostly sleet/freezing rain south of I84 with any snow snow accums in the bulk of the forum under 1" (if anything more than two tenths inch); with 1-4" snow accumulations reserved for the I84 corridor. This is modeled as generally light and appears to be an advisory event due to the probableice mix southeast of I84. My concern is that modeling of the warming aloft in our subforum I78 northward may be too much, which would allow for a little more snow than now modeled. Jury out. I'm awaiting further model cycles. These impressions include seeing op cycles through 06z/11.

Anyone know what NYC-CP received this morning? Thanks, Walt

Wantage NJ (this part) : the 4AM report of 0.4" is indeed final. Cloudy 19.6F. 51.3" (as good as I can measure) for the season so far (over twice last seasons ~20.7").

Will update all threads by 8A today... one at a time. I think the GFSV16 stopped running at 00z/11 90 hrs w unknown rts. My first take for the NYC group. We'll see what the 7A NYC ob has (T at midnight climo). I think a bit more snow late 13-14 with a change to ice or rain later Valentines Day for NYC. I like a bit of snow accumulation first 6-12 hours of the overall light event. Meanwhile nw NJ newd and the I84 corridor 1-4" looks good to me with maybe a touch of sleet? Advisory event for some of the forum just because of ice risk. 15?? modeling??? could be messy in the afternoon but reserving this to say late 15-early 17... i like a colder solution than modeled...not soo much warming at 850MB and more snow, so I think NYC will see some snow acc but ice could eventually get involved NJ/LI. Modeling is pretty cold at the surface. This will be a moderate event. Advisory event or possibly even a warning event for some of the subforum. 18-19 (thread stops at 18) but this event is complex with predominant ice (ice to rain LI) but may end as snow everywhere? So far no sign of a closed low slowing things any further so have to go with what we see. NAEFS turns interestingly cold in the 1000-500 thickness to wrap this event up on the 19th. Will parse all this out in the threads by 8A. Later, Walt 521A/11

Wantage NJ 405A report 0.4" 21/19 flurries.

Yes, all looks good thru the 18z GEFS... sometimes things break down .. my worry, eventually sleet instead of snow. Not tonight!

not yet... looks warmer with mainly rain coast and snow/ice inland possibly to rain? 8 days away... lots can change and there are events before that, like what you wake up tomorrow. Hope it's enjoyable for at least some of us.

one at a time as someone else said above. all good dates except 20th may be wrong on my part... impressive southern stream but too much ridging east coast might mean sleet/ice interior, rain coast on the 18th. Pretty sure thats the way we're headed. Lets enjoy whatever w can get thru the early 17th. All of that looks pretty good to me on wintry weather pretty good increase in snow depth, especially w and n of NYC.

235PM Wednesday update (10th): Obs thread updated at 225PM with little change from my 7A Wednesday update; I still think be wary of the dry models for the 12th per the brief potential 6 hr sw 850MB flow WAA pulse (light snow PA/NJ). 13th...seems like steady snow develops for sure late on the 13th in our subforum,. Please see the 14th-18th thread on amounts for the 14th.

255 PM Wednesday (10th update): No overall change. Think the 14th is probably all snow or just a touch of rain extreme southeast? By 6PM Valentines night, I think the Feb totals in NYC will have increased 1.5-4" from this mornings 19.9 value...to place the Feb NYC ranking near #11. No guarantees but I think the Valentines (late 13th-14th) event is mostly snow and generally light. I still like 1-4" as a basic starting point. Did see the GFS trying to split NYC with nothing, but relying a little more on the GGEM and ensembles for this assessment. Tuesday the 16th: I know there is potential for ice all the way up to I84... but the front end thump of snow should be decent and I could see this event remaining all snow far nw NJ to nw CT and 6+ continues to be what I'm thinking, at least along and north of I84. Axis of heaviest snow ice is debatable as is northward ice encroachment but overall this looks to be a fairly cold event. Thursday the 18th into early 19th: Challenging... at first glance looks warm, but if you look at the GEFS and some previous operational runs, one can envision a closed 500MB low developing in TN/MO/ARK and then from there??? slower, so that we have a somewhat colder subdued event the 18th and may have to wait for a big qpf event til late 19th or 20th (outside this thread), instead of as progressive as now generally modeled. One question i would have... would that closed low be able to translate newd the eastern Great Lakes or... across the Mid Atlantic? Lots of speculation on my part, and maybe it just comes out bodily as now implied (18-19)? Just bringing up the complexities I can see. No matter, more ice/snow/rain...take your pick and for now I would have to favor rain LI/coastal NJ or brief snow-ice to rain there while, interior?? maybe lots of ice?

CoCoRaHS snowfall for the 9th (final added 1043A), Virtually no qpf occurred just s of I78 in NJ to LI and that nixed the snowfall opportunity from there northward into ne NJ and far southeast NYS - far southern CT (QPF forecast problem that I wouldn't have forecast). Max bullseye snowfall was ne PA into se NYS...well ensembled [3-5"]. Then 1-2" occurred near or just n of I78 in e PA-nw NJ and southern CT. Some spotty icing occurred LI/coastal NJ and especially ne NJ into extreme se NYS and s CT, but limited impact. Saw the overnight ice reports after the storm ended. Thanks for all your observations.

Rare that we're higher than you. Wow!

Models try to drag the bulk of the cold air across the Appalachians with each too strongly modeled short waves. Doesn't happen. Until the trough moves to 70W or further east, we have little chance, UNLESS, we can get some decent confluence going in se Canada and place a 1035MB+high up there. I doubt if we'll ever get down to 14F NYC with this current pattern. My guess is best chance 19th-20th after the main trough moves by but not betting on it. What I do think i know, we struggle to get cold air east of the Apps unless the short wave turns our 500MB flow to west northwest or northwest as ithe short wave buries toward 50-50. Instead, the predominant trough is hanging in across the Midwest and so our 500 flow is ~270 fluctuating 240-250 at times with each short wave. That won't do it.

CoCoRaHS snowfall for the 9th (final added 1043A), Virtually no qpf occurred just s of I78 in NJ to LI and that nixed the snowfall opportunity from there northward into ne NJ and far southeast NYS - far southern CT (QPF forecast problem that I wouldn't have forecast). Max bullseye snowfall was ne PA into se NYS...well ensembled [3-5"]. Then 1-2" occurred near or just n of I78 in e PA-nw NJ and southern CT. Some spotty icing occurred LI/coastal NJ and especially ne NJ into extreme se NYS and s CT, but limited impact.

806A Wednesday (10th) update: No overall change. This is the thread that dove tails with the 11th-13th thread. The 13th event, however it evolves will probably end up with a decent amount of snow on the morning of the 14th and so am continuing the widespread 1-4" idea (even LI-NAEFS rather cold there). Modeling has trended a little colder (blocking) but not necessarily a big coastal, but some WAA snow. 16th: looking more significant than the 14th. I think it's still cold enough for a front end thump of snow. Ice/rain may eventually get involved NJ/LI but where all snow, seems like a decent chance of 6+, probably I84 corridor, but even LI has a chance of at least a light snowfall prior to a phase change. 18th: may be the biggest qpf event of all 3 with a more southerly track of the trough and a GMEX scoop of RH (18th-early 19th?)BUT, that one seems somewhat warmer... so more problematic for maintaining entire wintry elements, but possible. The good news: IFFFFF this one is pretty big and more of a southern streamer, there is a "chance" it will re-energize the block near 50-50 for subsequent events after the 21st. ?????? Cross that bridge after the joy of tracking too many small-moderate events that offer snow/ice to the forum. A lot to track and maintain an unwavering perspective of what may happen (minimizing big changes to thinking as the models sort it all out). Added the WPC ensemble chance of 3"+ of snow for the 16th. Small chance we'll be #10 ranked Feb snowfall in NYC CP by the end of the 16th. Depends on amounts 11th, 14 leading up the 16th.

7A Wednesday update: The 11th is covered now in the OBS thread. The 12th...be wary of the dry models. Already WAA late 12th in PA. From the initial thread, I left the door open for the 13th. Given the early issuance of the thread (5th), I see this as the event occurrence but timing uncertain. Lots going on and timing of late 12-13 unknown, but just a piece of WAA snow. The idea of the coldest of the season NYC probably won't work out for the 13th-14th. Seems like this is mostly snow and won't quote a final amount by the end of the 13th yet.

I don't think I implied that, did I? Snows 11th, probably later 13-14 (snow to ice?), 16th. There is still an outside chance we'll see more snow than modeled for the 12th but will count on that southwest of LI. The way I see it, 3 of those 6 days will see some sort of snow accumulation whatever it is.

Will update all on-going threads by 830AM except the recap of the 9th around 1030AM. OBS thread for tonight has posted. Snow and ice coming to LI the next 6 days, multiple events. The event of the 18th-19th seems warmer but significant as well and that may end this precarious balance of multiple minor-moderate events with a subfreezing cold pool in a portion of our subforum. In other words, more seasonable temps with the EPS and GEFS considerably on how much loss of the the -NAO/-AO but both are the trending milder, especially after the 18th. I have no skill determining which one prevails nor the impact of the MJO phase, but I think via NAEFS, that we're good for snow and ice in the subforum for another 8 days with a warmer trend for the 18th event.

226PM Update: Not changing the thread but if I had to do it over, I might start the snow as early as 930 PM western part and midnight eastern. Also, I'd probably boost the snowfall expectations to widespread 1-3" NJ/PA/LI part of the forum with at least 1 inch NYC, and increase se NYS-CT to trace far north to 1.5inch far south. Minor roughly 6-9 hour snowfall. Should look pretty in the early morning, provided you don't have to drive in it. Not impossible to see a half hour of moderate 1/2SM snow. ---- The first of a series of successive snow-ice events for LI. On-going threads will provide an attempt at future reality detail for each. Modeling has drifted north for the first of 2, or maybe even 3 in our NYC sub forum for the on-going 11-13th thread. Expect 1/2-2" from Scranton PA to NYC-LI southward overnight into Thursday morning with possible spot 3" south of I78. Untreated surfaces will be slippery and it's likely this will have some minor impact on parts of the area Thursday morning commute, a few accidents and delays. Not major but like the Tuesday the 9th occurrence just north and west of NYC, except further south into the heart of the NYC metro area. There is a chance of some 3/4mile light snow with this event as a couple of bands are indicated and snow growth potential is modest but exists. The best axis? Not necessarily southern the edge of the subforum. Maybe we'll know later this Wednesday evening? Amounts in se NYS-CT and northern Sussex County NJ probably a Trace to 1". Less impact there. Snow start time may be 11PM ish for the western parts of the forum but most of the snow should occur in the midnight to 8AM time frame Thursday. -- 749P: Added OKX and PHI snow forecasts to cover the forum and note that advisories are posted for LI/ and much of NJ. Back in the morning.

fwiw... GFSv16 is back running (12z cycle). Unsure how it long it will continue. LI not much snow but some ice and looks like a fair amount of snow/ice I84 corridor or maybe north of that? Back tomorrow.

Will have a CoCoRaHS map tomorrow ~10A.

Wantage NJ - this portion of our large township 3.5" final. About an 11.5 hr snowfall.

Some reports that NWS posted. This is not a complete picture.

Wantage NJ 3.3" 110PM still snowing at 39P and 27F.