bluewave

The climate model I posted a while back did a good job forecasting the +PDO from 2014 to 2018 with the 2013 initialization. The current batch of climate models I recently posted continues this -PDO driven by the record warm WPAC that began in 2019 up through 2030. But my guess is that this could change if we can get a strong enough El Niño in 26-27 or 27-28. We would probably need a record EPAC warming in conjunction with a very strong to super El Niño to compete against the WPAC warm pool. But not sure what a strong +PDO would look like following the recent global baseline temperature jump in 23 to 24. Plus the recent very strong El Niño in 23-24 couldn’t shift the La Niña background as we saw the record WPAC forcing near the MC for an El Niño. The AMO has been a different story. There was talk back in the summer of 2013 and 2014 that the AMO was in the process of going negative following the unusually quiet hurricane seasons. But instead the North Atlantic SSTs became much warmer from 2015 to 2019 with a new SST pattern emerging. A small cold pool south of Greenland with record SSTs east of New England. This is different from past AMO SST configurations. Then in 2023 and 2024 the entire basin jumped to record highs associated with less clouds, lighter winds, and higher pressures. I posted this study in the Global Temperature thread if anyone is interested. So we are seeing different processes in the Atlantic especially over the last decade from the past AMO cycles. There has also been a record number of hurricanes focusing the landfalls around the Gulf Coast since 2017. One of the unusual hallmarks of these storms is that they have been intensifying during landfall. While older storms would reliably begin to weaken with only a few deepening into landfall. So maybe it will take a volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years to to cool the oceans below so much that it mimics a -AMO. Outside of that not sure how to cool the North Atlantic. These record ridges getting stuck in place rapidly warm the seas below like we just saw around NW Europe with the record 3 to 4 SD SST warming there.

The main issue with what passes as regional and global governance is that too many people and governments see themselves as separate from nature. Somehow over the last several thousand years we got the idea that nature is something to be conquered. But in reality we are all part of the same living organism whether we realize it or not.

Well 2023 and 2024 were the warmest SSTs on record for the Atlantic Basin. This past winter saw very strong winds across the basin cooling things down from those peak levels. So while we are currently back to 3rd warmest, the SSTs are significantly above the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages.

I think the Atlantic warming is more a function of the lighter winds, higher pressures, and cloud reductions rather than the usual old AMO. Much of what was once believed to be the -AMO was actually a result of volcanic aerosols cooling the SSTs below. So my guess is that the Atlantic SSTs will remain very warm if and until we see a return to major volcanic activity like we had hundreds to thousands of years ago.

Trees have really taken a beating since 2010. We have seen record tree losses in the East from all the high wind events. The West into Canada has seen a ton of tree losses from all the wildfires. Not to mention the record deforestation of the Amazon Basin.

All the way to Eurasia from Canada. ‪Ryan Katz-Rosene, PhD‬ ‪@ryankatzrosene.bsky.social‬ · 1d Canada’s wildfire smoke has now made it to Europe! Gives you a sense of how massive these fires are! 13 5 Chris Mooney ‪@chriscmooney.bsky.social‬ Follow I also included a visualization of data from @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social in the piece. Here's where 2025 currently stands compared to other years Emissions from Canada's wildfires are spiking again The chart shows the annual growth of wildfire emissions in million tons of carbon dioxide gas, from 2003-2005. 2025 data end on June 9. datawrapper.dwcdn.net June 11, 2025 at 10:24 AM

Yeah. Even though the subsurface in the Nino regions is warm neutral, the WPAC warm pool is the main contributor to the RONI La Nina background pattern. So looks like a continuation of the WPAC being the main driver rather than the ENSO regions.

Anytime we start to see heat like this building out West in early June, the potential is there for 100° heat around our area after June 20th into July as pieces come east.

That’s what allowed JFK to set the November monthly max of 82° last year. Flash drought permitted JFK to beat the previous record by a full 2°. If this had occurred back in July instead, then it would have been the first 106°high at JFK. Since that is +2° over the all-time summer max set back in 1966. Also notice the record ridge building from the Great Lakes and westerly flow on November 1st, 2024. This pattern has been missing during our summers since 2013. The Euro summer forecast is wet for our area. So probably noting as dry as last September into October this July into August. But with the major drought out West, pieces of the heat can come east from time to time with drier 1 to perhaps 2 week periods. Wouldn’t take much for a day or two of westerly flow and JFK making a run in its first 100° since 2013. But specifics like that will probably have to wait until we get past the solstice. 100° heat since 2013 has been restricted to interior Queens from Corona to LGA and NJ. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Nov maximum temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 82 0 2 2022 80 0 - 1950 80 1 3 1993 77 0 - 1982 77 0 - 1975 77 0 4 1974 76 0 5 2015 75 0 - 2003 75 0 - 1990 75 0

At least we are doing better than the areas further to our north.These stuck weather patterns are the real deal. The record warm Great Lakes since last fall has given the areas to the east precipitation on every weekend going back to November. So plenty of precipitation with the dominant Great Lakes cutter storm tracks.

This rainfall gradient almost reminds me of the snowfall gradient during 93-94. Heaviest rains further north in spots like the Poconos. But less than half the totals closer to Central NJ. Data for May 1, 2025 through June 11, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 14.44 PA POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 14.06 PA STRAUSSTOWN 1.5 N CoCoRaHS 13.28 NJ BUTLER 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 13.23 PA BATH 1.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 12.74 PA QUAKERTOWN 1.9 NNE CoCoRaHS 12.65 PA SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE COOP 12.46 PA ALLENTOWN 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 12.46 NJ FREEHOLD TWP 0.3 NE CoCoRaHS 5.32 NJ NEPTUNE TWP 2.2 E CoCoRaHS 5.31 NJ OCEAN TWP 0.8 SE CoCoRaHS 5.29 NJ LOWER TWP 3.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 5.28

The period right after the solstice looks like our first 95°+ major heat potential especially in the usual warm spots as a piece of the Western drought feedback heat starts moving east. The source region is very dry. So even though we have been very wet, any heat coming from that area will have the potential to overperform at least for a few days. Warmer and drier June 23 to 30 on EPS forecast

The average high temperatures during July 2022 were in the low 90s at many spots in NJ. Monthly Data for July 2022 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 92.1 Newark Area ThreadEx 92.1 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 92.1 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 91.5 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 91.4 CANOE BROOK COOP 91.4 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 91.4 HARRISON COOP 91.0 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 90.5 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 90.5

The amount of cooling can vary depending on the conditions. But the current 9mT in Wantagh is 0.7° cooler than the 2m. So a NYC taller building roof top could be significantly cooler than 2m.

The issue with rooftop stations is that the temperatures generally decline with height unless there is an inversion. We see this with the new micronet stations and BNL which have sensors at multiple heights. So the higher sensors usually run cooler than 2m unless there is a radiational cooling inversion. You have to remember that JFK ASOS is in a marshy area right on the bay. So a few miles makes a big difference especially when the sea breeze is restricted within a mile or two of the ocean or bay. The ASOS could be 85° on the water while the areas a few miles north are 90°. I saw this all the time growing up in Long Beach.

Yeah, at least during the warm season when the dew points frequently get over 70°. The 75°+ dew points number is nearly as high as the Delmarva used to get before 2010. One of the biggest risks is flash flooding since a warmer atmosphere holds moisture.

Yeah, the number of 70° minimums has been on a very steep increase right up into Northern New England with the record high dew points.

The atmosphere was much drier in those days than it is now. So even though the background pattern wasn’t as warm, it was easier near the shore with westerly flow to reach 100° from time to time. So extended 90° heatwaves were easier to achieve. This is why we haven’t had a 20 day official heatwave around the region since 1988. While the overall summer temperatures have been on the rise, the high end 100°+ heat has been missing since 2013 due to all the onshore flow and rain. Plus the higher dewpoints allow the 70° minimums to increase at faster rate than the 90° maximums. Also notice how much faster the 85°day count is increasing above the 90° day count. This is pointing to a much more humid climate with more clouds and showers. Higher dew points also prevent the overnight lows from dropping as low as they used to.

Yeah, we need westerly flow and dry conditions for areas closer to the coast to reach 100°. This is why places like JFK and ISP haven’t hit 100° since 2013. Generally above average summer temps, high dewpoints, and rainy. But we can’t set records for 90°+,95°+, and 100°+ days type extreme heat.

We won’t see anything like the extreme heat the areas closer to the coast got those summers as long as this wet onshore flow patterns continue.

Heaviest rains continue to focus in the same areas. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow May 2025 precipitation ranking compared to all Mays since 1895. Many areas from east Texas through New England had a Top 10, Top 5, or their wettest May on record. June 1, 2025 at 11:30 PM Everybody can reply

LGA made it to 100° also. 6-30-21 was the last time they did there. It was when a piece of the record Western heat came east. Now with the major drought out West the record heat is beginning to focus out there again. So we will need to watch for another piece of that heat coming east if the ridges can link up again from after the summer solstice. Anytime there is such a major drought out West, there is always the chance that 100° heat can come east if we can dry out for a week to 10 days. But since we didn’t get any 90° heat back in May, the chances for a high number of 100° and 90° days like 2010 and 2022 is less likely. But it doesn’t rule out generally above average summer temperatures and a few days in the 95° to 100° range at the usual warm spots like in NJ and in Central Queens. June 30,2021 highs Astoria……..100° Corona.…….103° LGA………....100° EWR…………103° Harrison…...101° Caldwell……100°

That’s what happened at the end of June 2021. But the PACNW was much warmer with the historic heat there. Our area made it to the low 100s away from the immediate shore areas.

That is the COOP which is missing several days of data. The airport is +2.9 for the month so far. They had a record high of 93° a few days ago. BDR also had a record high with the recent over the top warm up. Almanac for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT June 5, 2025 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 93 75 93 in 2025 60 in 2009 Min Temperature 60 53 68 in 2010 42 in 1998 Climatological Data for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - June 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 632 433 - - 19 33 0.48 Average 79.0 54.1 66.6 2.9 - - - Normal 74.6 52.8 63.7 - 28 17 1.21 2025-06-01 64 48 56.0 -6.6 9 0 0.04 2025-06-02 71 44 57.5 -5.4 7 0 T 2025-06-03 80 44 62.0 -1.2 3 0 0.00 2025-06-04 85 51 68.0 4.4 0 3 0.00 2025-06-05 93 60 76.5 12.6 0 12 0.00 2025-06-06 86 67 76.5 12.3 0 12 T 2025-06-07 76 60 68.0 3.5 0 3 0.41 2025-06-08 77 59 68.0 3.2 0 3 0.03 2025-06-09 M M M M M M M 2025-06-10 M M M M M M M 2025-06-11 M M M M M M M 2025-06-12 M M M M M M M 2025-06-13 M M M M M M M 2025-06-14 M M M M M M M 2025-06-15 M M M M M M M 2025-06-16 M M M M M M M 2025-06-17 M M M M M M M 2025-06-18 M M M M M M M 2025-06-19 M M M M M M M 2025-06-20 M M M M M M M 2025-06-21 M M M M M M M 2025-06-22 M M M M M M M 2025-06-23 M M M M M M M 2025-06-24 M M M M M M M 2025-06-25 M M M M M M M 2025-06-26 M M M M M M M 2025-06-27 M M M M M M M 2025-06-28 M M M M M M M 2025-06-29 M M M M M M M 2025-06-30 M M M M M M M RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0436 PM EDT THU JUN 05 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT IN BRIDGEPORT, CT... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 86 DEGREES SET IN 1953. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1948 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

The Bermuda High keeps dueling with the Canadian High. So this leads to the fronts stalling out near our area. You want one to dominate for extended sunny and dry weather.