bluewave

They should probably read the paper that I posted yesterday on how flawed the MADIS comparisons are. While the OKX crew does a great job on forecasting, what they let happen to the Central Park observing site doesn’t speak highly of the quality control at the NYC ASOS. I don’t think that any other local NWS office would allow that to happen to one of their legacy sites. At least the forecasters from the surrounding offices drop in and add their comments. But we seldom see forecasters from the OKX office comment on Central Park.

Who is throwing out New Brunswick? The point is that the 100° heat wasn’t isolated to Newark over this current heatwave.

Saying this person said x on y board doesn’t help us out. We have the actual data from this heatwave. The 100s were widely recorded from Harrison back to Somerset County.

There have been times before the current heatwave when it seems like there may have been a +0.5 to +1 variance like you have shown. But over the last few weeks, Newark has been really close to the other usual warmest sites. We could probably make a case that the variance between Newark and other warm spots back in June was wider than usual. Comparing Newark to New Brunswick can be a challenge since the Rutgers station is much more suburban by comparison. As you mentioned, Harrison has gaps in the data. Plus the Newark climate period is 1991-2020. The temperature record at Harrison only goes back to 2000. Photos from New Brunswick station. https://www.njweather.org/station/1101 Station name: HARRISON State: NJ County: Hudson County (FIPS 34017) Climate Division: NORTHERN (NJ01) Station ids: 283704 (Coop) USC00283704 (GHCN) HSNN4 (NWS LI) Latitude: 40.7481 degrees Longitude: -74.1520 degrees Elevation: 24 feet Available date ranges: Max Temperature 2000-01-01 - 2022-07-25 Min Temperature 2000-01-01 - 2022-07-25 Precipitation 1997-01-01 - 2022-07-25 Snowfall 1997-01-01 - 2022-07-25 Snow Depth 1997-01-01 - 2022-07-25

That’s right. The heatwave wasn’t that bad theme was very active on Twitter and other sites this weekend. The dense vegetation growth since the 90s in Central Park seldom gets mentioned. This is really where the NWS needs to step in. There have been numerous posts in recent years on various websites stating that heatwaves in recent years haven’t that bad because NYC was cooler and more reliable. The NYC thermometer wasn’t in the deep shade when many of the older records were set. Record heat this afternoon: from the NY Times: Daily record high temperature, since Central Park 106°F set in Dust Bowl of 1936. Tree growth around the NYC ASOS in recent years Original condition of the site when records like 1936 were set There were several temperatures higher than 106° at our local stations back in 2010 and 2011. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106

He invalidates his whole premise about the difference between Newark and other stations during this heatwave with this one passage below. In other words, instead of a five day temperature trend of 100-100-100-101-102, it may actually have been as cool as 97-97-97-98-99. No record-breaking streak of triple digit heat. Harrison nearly had 4 days in a row of 100°. So is it so hard to believe that the environment at Newark could be a degree or two warmer on the 21st and 22nd? Temperatures can vary within a few miles. Plus several more rural stations like SMQ just missed 5 days of 100° by 2 degrees on the 21st. Data for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 97 2022-07-21 99 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 101 2022-07-24 102 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-21 100 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 101 2022-07-24 102 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-21 98 2022-07-22 100 2022-07-23 100 2022-07-24 101

Relative to the July rankings, several of our stations are at or near the top for July warmth. While Newark is in the lead, White Plains and Danbury are not far behind. A number of stations in the Mount Holly forecast zones are ranking very high also. We can see how many top ranking years there were since the summers became much warmer in 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 83.0 7 2 2011 82.7 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2022 77.0 7 - 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 3 2020 76.9 0 4 2019 76.8 0 5 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 76.4 8 2 2022 75.9 7 3 2013 75.7 0 4 2020 75.6 0 5 2010 74.7 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.4 0 2 1994 82.1 0 3 2022 82.0 7 4 2020 81.9 0 5 2012 81.8 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2022 78.0 7 - 2020 78.0 0 3 2019 77.5 0 - 2011 77.5 0 4 2013 77.4 0 5 2012 76.9 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 79.7 0 - 1955 79.7 0 2 2022 79.1 7 - 2013 79.1 0 3 2020 79.0 0 - 2010 79.0 0 4 1901 78.7 0 5 2011 78.5 0

The continuing marine heatwave in the NW Atlantic has helped Nantucket reach the warmest July on record so far. This part of the Atlantic is one of the fastest warming in the world. So it’s no surprise how many 70°+ Julys Nantucket has had in recent years. Time Series Summary for NANTUCKET MEMORIAL AP, MA - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 72.8 7 2 2013 72.3 0 3 2010 72.2 0 4 1975 72.0 0 5 2021 71.6 1 - 1952 71.6 0 6 2012 71.2 0 - 1999 71.2 1 7 1949 71.0 0 8 1979 70.6 0 - 1971 70.6 0 9 2020 70.5 0 - 2019 70.5 0 - 2008 70.5 0 10 2015 70.2 0 11 2016 70.0 0 - 1980 70.0 0

Sunday had the most 100° readings across the area in a long time. There were at least 11 stations that made it to 100°. Newark, Berkeley Twp, and Somerset County reached 102°. So the addition of these new micronet stations shows that Newark really isn’t that unique. People need to look at more than just the NWS hourly round up of major airports to get a full picture of the climate in our area. So posters on twitter should feel free to join the fuller discussion in this thread rather than issue random tweets that don’t do reflect the actual conditions in our area. NYC micronet Tremont / Van Nest 101 Corona 101 Fresh Kills 100 OKX forecast zones Data for July 24, 2022 through July 24, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 NJ HARRISON COOP 101 Philly forecast zones Data for July 24, 2022 through July 24, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 101 ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-24 Mesonet 102 Berkeley Twp. NJ 2022-07-24 Mesonet 102 ▼ Toms River NJ 2022-07-24 Mesonet 100

Newark is warmer than New Brunswick in the summer and sometimes colder in the winter like in January. January 2022 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 28.6 Newark Area ThreadEx 28.6 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 28.7 HARRISON COOP 28.7 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 29.0 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 29.1 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 29.2 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 29.3 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 29.3 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 29.6 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 29.7 Monthly Data for January 2022 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature <= 32 HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 20 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 16 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 16 SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 16 WERTSVILLE 4 NE COOP 14 BOONTON 1 SE COOP 14 AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 14 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 13 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 12 Trenton Area ThreadEx 12 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 11 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 11 CANOE BROOK COOP 11 BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 11 Newark Area ThreadEx 11 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 11 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 10 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 10 HARRISON COOP 10 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 10 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 9 PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 9 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 9 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 9

It’s easier for the higher resolution models like the HRRR to correctly resolve our local temperatures on Long Island. The HRRR had 95°+ for the usual North Shore warm spots.

We were lucky that the heat index values didn’t rise to the record levels of 1983, 1993,1995, 1999, 2011, and 2019. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=PA_ASOS&zstation=PHL&var=max_feel&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=all&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Which is what you would expect with the type of flow pattern that we have been getting. The areas from Somerset County to Newark have been the warmest. Just look at the highs from yesterday with multiple 100s in the corridor. There were at least 6 reported 100° readings yesterday. Daily Data for July 23, 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NJ HARRISON COOP 100 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 97 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 97 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 96 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 96 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 95 Daily Data for July 23, 2022 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Max Temperature NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 100 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 98 NJ TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 98 PA READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 97 NJ MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 97 https://www.njweather.org/data/daily/3572 ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 Mesonet 101 66

That is in a cooler location than Newark.

Very misleading tweet since several locations from Somerset County to Newark have been hitting 100° regularly since July 20th. People should do their research before making statements like that. It’s not that hard to bring up all the other 100° readings at surrounding sites.

The HRRR has 98° north of the LIE right before the sea breeze front arrives this afternoon.

While it took some time to find, this paper explains why the MADIS range test that the Gladstone site uses is so flawed. NYC is a chronically bad type of site mentioned below. The trees covering the ASOS has been an ongoing issue since the 1990s. http://www.thinkmind.org/articles/geoprocessing_2019_1_10_30010.pdf Range tests are not perfect. The record high United States temperature would fail MADIS’s range test, although it would pass MesoW- est’s test. Both MADIS and MesoWest further employ a suite of tests that go beyond their simple range tests. “Bud- dy” tests compare an observation to neighboring observa- tions. MADIS uses Optimal Interpolation in conjunction with cross-validation to measure the conformity of an ob- servation to its neighbors [2]. MesoWest estimates observa- tions using multivariate linear regression [5]. A real obser- vation is compared to the estimate, and if the deviation is high, then the real observation is flagged as questionable. These approaches are flawed in that they do not account for bad metadata, such as incorrect timestamps or incorrect locations. They do not account for chronically bad sites which produce bad data including data that may sometimes appear correct. Of even greater concern, they may not do a good job in assessing accuracy and may be incorrectly la- beling bad data as good and good data as bad. The consequences of ignoring data quality are great. How can we trust our applications and models if the inputs are bad? In turn, how can we better assess data for quality so that we can be confident in its use? In this paper, we present new evaluation results for our previously-published method including evaluation with several new data sets. These results are significant in that they demonstrate the challenges of evaluation of methods for data quality assessment of spatio-temporal weather sen- sor data. The rest of this paper is organized as follows: Sec- tion II presents relevant literature, Section III identifies general challenges, Section IV defines our approach,

The deep westerly flow took the 100° temperarures right down to Long Beach that month.

The longest 100° day streak on Long Island was 4 days in July 2010 at Mineola. The high of 108° was also the highest recorded temperature that I could find for Long Island. Wantagh came close but missed the 4 day steak with one day only making it to 99°. Wantagh reached 107° which was the 2nd highest tempersrure thst I could find for Long Island. Data for MINEOLA, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2010-07-04 103 2010-07-05 104 2010-07-06 108 2010-07-07 105 Data for WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2010-07-04 101 2010-07-05 99 2010-07-06 107 2010-07-07 104

You aren’t going to get that kind of IMBY resolution from a satellite map. But most of Suffolk south of the LIE has had very little rain this month. The sea breeze front has been stalling along the North Shore. Data for July 1, 2022 through July 24, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation BLUE POINT 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 0.15 SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 0.19 COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.21 SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.22 ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.24 AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.26 ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 0.26 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.30 PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.31 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 0.32 REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.32 AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.35 BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.41 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.43 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.46 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0.53 CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 0.53 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.83 SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 1.01 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1.09 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 1.17 MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 1.25 SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.50 RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 1.66 NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 1.92 FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 1.98 RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.99 RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 1.99 JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.22 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.27 SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.34 CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 2.48 NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 2.49 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.98 MOUNT SINAI COOP 3.00 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 3.30 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 3.34 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 3.39 CENTERPORT COOP 3.61 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 3.99

Today looks like the peak of the heatwave with Newark making a run on a record breaking 102°. It will also be the first time that Newark had a 5 day 100° heatwave. The best that Newark did in the past was 4 consecutive 100° days. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 100 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2022-07-23 1 4 2022-07-23 - 4 2010-07-07 - 4 1993-07-10 - 4 1953-08-31 2 3 2011-07-23 - 3 2006-08-03 - 3 2001-08-09 - 3 1966-07-04 - 3 1949-08-11 - 3 1949-07-30

The driest parts of Central NJ this month also has the least snow last winter.

Newark is tied with 2011 for the warmest July. It’s the 3rd warmest July in Somerset County NJ. Philly is in 4th place for warmest July. The heat also extends into our northern suburbs. Danbury is currently having their 2nd warmest July. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82.7 8 - 2011 82.7 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2020 78.0 0 3 2022 77.8 8 Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.4 0 2 1994 82.1 0 3 2020 81.9 0 4 2022 81.8 8 - 2012 81.8 0 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 76.4 8 2 2022 75.7 8 - 2013 75.7 0 3 2020 75.6 0 4 2010 74.7 0

That 84.4 looks like an error to me in the saved file on the website. I don’t remember seeing that buoy go warmer than 79° to 81°. It would be helpful if there was a saved regional weather round up for that day out of OKX with the actual buoy reports.

The 79°to 80° SSTs at the buoys south of Long Island are near all-time record highs. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=RWR&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP AIR SEA (UTC) (F) NY Harb Entrance 2150 80 20 S Fire Island 2150 79