bluewave

Good to know. This was the 2nd warmest July at Freehold-Marlboro. 7 out of the 10 warmest Julys have occurred since our summers started getting much warmer in 2010. Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 80.5 4 2 2022 80.0 0 3 1955 79.8 1 4 2020 79.3 2 5 2010 78.8 0 6 2019 78.6 0 7 2011 78.5 0 8 1949 78.2 0 9 2013 78.1 0 10 2012 77.9 0

Currently the 5th warmest June 1st to August 3rd from Philly to Freehold and Newark . Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3 Missing Count 1 1994-08-03 80.1 0 2 2010-08-03 79.8 0 3 2011-08-03 79.0 0 4 2020-08-03 78.7 0 5 2022-08-03 78.4 0 6 1995-08-03 78.3 0 7 1993-08-03 78.2 0 8 2008-08-03 77.9 0 9 2012-08-03 77.8 0 10 2016-08-03 77.7 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3 Missing Count 1 1983-08-03 78.8 61 2 1999-08-03 77.2 7 3 2010-08-03 76.7 2 4 2020-08-03 76.5 4 - 1987-08-03 76.5 30 5 2022-08-03 75.8 0 6 2011-08-03 75.4 0 - 1949-08-03 75.4 0 - 1934-08-03 75.4 0 7 2019-08-03 74.9 0 - 2013-08-03 74.9 0 8 2021-08-03 74.8 0 9 1943-08-03 74.7 1 10 2002-08-03 74.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 3 Missing Count 1 1994-08-03 79.9 0 2 1993-08-03 79.5 0 3 2010-08-03 79.2 0 4 2011-08-03 78.8 0 5 2022-08-03 78.6 0 6 2020-08-03 77.9 0 7 1999-08-03 77.8 0 8 2021-08-03 77.3 0 9 1988-08-03 77.1 0 10 2013-08-03 77.0 0 - 2008-08-03 77.0 0 - 1987-08-03 77.0 0

Expansion of D1 drought from Central NJ out across the Long Island South Shore. Short-term moderate and severe drought continued to expand, especially in the New York City area, New Jersey, and New England, where rainfall was sparse and temperatures were a few degrees above normal. Water use restrictions and farming impacts were becoming common across these regions as dry conditions continued another week.

Temperatures will be off to the races next few hours. HRRR and Euro have 100° around Newark today. Highs could even reach 100° in the Hudson Valley.

This is a new type of -PDO with the rest of the Pacific much warmer than during our last 3rd year La Niña Julys. New -PDO Old -PDO

Snowfall for us always comes down to how much blocking we get. Models aren’t very good at forecasting blocking beyond 1-2 weeks unless we get a major SSW. So we often have to wait until winter starts to get an idea of how the blocking and snowfall situation will work out. The weird thing about this rare 3rd year La Niña is that it didn’t follow a strong to super El Niño like after 72-73 and 97-98. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01668-1 The weird thing about it, says L’Heureux, is that this prolonged La Niña, unlike previous triple dips, hasn’t come after a strong El Niño, which tends to build up a lot of ocean heat that takes a year or two to dissipate1. “I keep wondering, where’s the dynamics for this?” says L’Heureux.

Looks like the record trade winds in July will result in a rare 3rd year La Niña for the winter.

August is starting out with the highest extent since 2014.

Since the excessive tree growth over the last decade, NYC has had many years with the peak summer highs from -5 to -7 lower than the warmest spots. The average was only around -2 for NYC from 1977 to 1986 before the tree growth put the thermometer in the deep shade. Year…….Area max…..NYC max 2022….102….95….-7 2021…..103….98….-5 2020….98……96…..-2 2019….101……95….-6 2018….101……96…..-5 2017….101…….94…..-7 2016…100…….96…..-4 2015…100……..97…..-3 2014….98………92….-6 2013….102……..98….-5 Before the trees covered the thermometer 1986….100…….98……-2 1985….97……….95…..-2 1984….98……….96…..-2 1983….100………99…..-1 1982….100………98…..-2 1981…..98………..96…..-2 1980….104……..102…..-2 1979…..98………95…….-3 1978….99………..95…….-4 1977…..104………104……NYC tied for warmest

Another 10.00”+ extreme rainfall event today.

Right on cue as the Western Atlantic SSTs are back to near all-time warmth for this time of year. We had a brief cooling from June into early July before the rapid rebound. Seems like the models have been consistently underestimating the WAR/SE Ridge beyond 120 hrs since around 2015. This is when the warm pool along with the perma-ridge began setting one new record after another.

With the front stalling to our north now, we’ll probably get scattered convection along the prefrontal trough and sea breeze front into early next week. But the location of these features on any given day will probably come down to the 12 hr daily hi res meso model forecasts.

The GFS extended the heatwave to next Monday and the Euro to next Wednesday. The models now stall the front north of l-80. So this looks like one of our most intense August heatwaves in years starting today.

All of our major stations set a new July record for the warmest July low maximum temperature. The only stations with a maximum under 80° were White Plains and Bridgeport. Even POU had their warmest low max at 83°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 83 0 2 2010 82 0 3 1994 81 0 4 2006 80 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81 0 2 1944 80 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82 0 2 2020 79 0 - 2006 79 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 80 0 2 2011 78 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 80 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76 0 - 2020 76 0 - 2010 76 0 - 2006 76 0 - 1985 76 0 - 1966 76 0 Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 83 0 2 2020 78 0 - 1955 78 0

Updated for July 2022. 7…..2022……EWR…..#2….LGA…..#6….JFK….#4…..BDR…#10….ISP….#7

2nd warmest and #1 driest July on record at Newark. Harrison finished at the #1 warmest July. JFK had their 4th warmest July, it was the 6th warmest at LGA. White Plains had their 4th warmest July. Islip finished at 7th warmest. Farmingdale was the 3rd warmest and #1 driest. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 2022 82.6 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2013 80.9 0 7 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 8 2019 80.6 0 9 1955 80.5 0 10 1988 80.4 0 11 2002 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 0.55 0 2 1932 0.84 0 3 1966 0.89 0 4 1999 1.01 0 5 1955 1.14 0 6 2002 1.19 0 7 1974 1.31 0 8 1998 1.34 0 9 1954 1.45 0 10 1977 1.51 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81.6 0 2 2020 81.5 0 3 2019 81.4 0 4 2012 81.2 2 5 2010 81.1 2 6 2002 80.9 0 7 2013 80.7 0 8 2011 80.5 3 9 2016 79.8 0 10 2018 79.4 0 - 2006 79.4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 80.7 0 2 2011 79.8 0 3 2013 79.5 0 4 2022 79.3 0 - 2020 79.3 0 5 2019 78.8 0 6 1999 78.7 0 - 1993 78.7 0 7 2016 78.6 0 - 1983 78.6 0 - 1949 78.6 0 8 2015 78.4 0 - 2012 78.4 0 9 1994 78.1 0 10 1955 78.0 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 82.9 0 2 2010 82.8 0 3 1999 81.9 0 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2022 81.1 0 - 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 11 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 12 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 3 2020 76.9 0 4 2022 76.8 0 - 2019 76.8 0 5 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 6 2011 76.6 1 7 2012 76.4 0 8 2016 76.3 0 - 1983 76.3 1 9 1952 76.2 0 - 1949 76.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.6 0 2 2019 78.1 0 3 2013 78.0 0 - 2010 78.0 0 4 2020 77.7 0 5 2011 77.6 0 6 1994 77.3 0 7 2022 77.1 0 8 2016 76.8 0 9 1966 76.3 0 10 2012 76.2 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 80.6 0 2 2010 79.7 0 3 2022 78.3 0 4 2013 78.1 0 5 2011 78.0 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 0.50 0 2 2013 1.15 2 - 2002 1.15 0

It will be interesting to see if we can eventually get a tropical system like we did in 1999 after the hot and dry July that year.

12z Euro continuing with the record 100° heat potential for Thursday. Then a slow moving cold front from Friday into the weekend. Impressive mid 70s dewpoints pooling near a stalled out frontal zone. So at least part of the region could pick up some heavy convection day 5-10 as Canadian high pressure pushes up against the Bermuda high.

The freehold-Marlboro COOP site in Monmouth County has increased to around 30 days reaching 90° also.

The New Brunswick site did a good job of keeping the trees at the proper distance from the thermometer. It’s a more rural or suburban site. So the 90° count has steadily increased there since 1961 to near 30° like EWR and LGA.

These charts do a good job showing how the tree growth began to cause a decline in NYC 90° days since the ASOS was established in 1995. The 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 climate normal periods are included. From 1961 to 1995 the Central Park ASOS wasn’t in the deep shade under the trees during peak heating hours. So the 90° day counts were more in line with Newark and LGA. The tree growth caused a decline in 90° days from near 20 in 1961 to around 16-17 in the early 2020s. If the site was properly maintained like other weather stations are, then NYC would have close closer to 30 days reaching 90° or higher like EWR and LGA. So the major media outlets forecasting high temperatures for NYC are all using flawed data. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/LCD/stations/WBAN:94728/detail ASOS 1995-11-01 Present OBSTRUCTIONS BEGIN DATE¹ END DATE¹ TREES 2021-04-06 Present TREES 2017-08-01 2021-04-06 TREE 020-340 deg 25-25 ft 20-54 deg 2016-06-15 2017-08-01 HYGR 090/4 TREES ENCIRLCE/25/20-54 IN FENCED ENCOLSURE 50 FT X 25 TH 1995-06-27 2016-06-15 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NY5801&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Extent is running on the higher side for the end of July since the September record minimum in 2012. The current extent is close to 2013 and 2014. The model forecast for the September minimum will update in early August. If the slower pace of melt counties, then we may be able to finish closer to 5 million sq km like last year. 7-30 sea ice extents since 2012 2022….7.063 2021…..6.595 2020….6.075 2019…..6.187 2018…..6.711 2017…..6.693 2016….6.773 2015….6.895 2014….7.055 2013….7.029 2012…6.400 September average extent since 2012 2021……4.92 2020……3.92 2019……4.32 2018…...4.71 2017……4.87 2016……4.72 2015…..4.63 2014…..5.28 2013…..5.35 2012…..3.60

While the dewpoints weren’t as high this July as in recent years, the heat index was still very high due to the actual temperatures being near the warmest on record for July.

The electronic thermometers introduced a very small cool bias for maximum temperatures. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/papers/menne-etal2010.pdf associated with the widespread conversion to electronic sensors in the USHCN during the last 25 years. However, the average of all unadjusted MMTS transitions is about −0.1°C for maximum temperature series and about +0.025°C for minimum temperature series. The adjustments for the impact of the MMTS on maximum tem- perature series in the USHCN version 2 data set are therefore somewhat inadequate, as reflected in Figures 2g and 3g. In fact, contrary to there being a positive (warm) bias as might be suggested by the exposure conditions at MMTS sites, there appears to be a residual, artificial negative bias in adjusted maximum temperatures (and little to no residual bias in adjusted minimum temperatures)

I am going to repost this from our discussion last week so we can find it for easy future reference near the end of the July thread. I like putting stuff near the beginning or end of a thread since it can be hard to find again when it’s in the middle. So we can show this to people when they want to post data from that site. While it took some time to find, this paper explains why the MADIS range test that the Gladstone site uses is so flawed. NYC is a chronically bad type of site mentioned below. The trees covering the ASOS has been an ongoing issue since the 1990s. http://www.thinkmind.org/articles/geoprocessing_2019_1_10_30010.pdf Range tests are not perfect. The record high United States temperature would fail MADIS’s range test, although it would pass MesoW- est’s test. Both MADIS and MesoWest further employ a suite of tests that go beyond their simple range tests. “Bud- dy” tests compare an observation to neighboring observa- tions. MADIS uses Optimal Interpolation in conjunction with cross-validation to measure the conformity of an ob- servation to its neighbors [2]. MesoWest estimates observa- tions using multivariate linear regression [5]. A real obser- vation is compared to the estimate, and if the deviation is high, then the real observation is flagged as questionable. These approaches are flawed in that they do not account for bad metadata, such as incorrect timestamps or incorrect locations. They do not account for chronically bad sites which produce bad data including data that may sometimes appear correct. Of even greater concern, they may not do a good job in assessing accuracy and may be incorrectly la- beling bad data as good and good data as bad. The consequences of ignoring data quality are great. How can we trust our applications and models if the inputs are bad? In turn, how can we better assess data for quality so that we can be confident in its use? In this paper, we present new evaluation results for our previously-published method including evaluation with several new data sets. These results are significant in that they demonstrate the challenges of evaluation of methods for data quality assessment of spatio-temporal weather sen- sor data. The rest of this paper is organized as follows: Sec- tion II presents relevant literature, Section III identifies general challenges, Section IV defines our approach,