bluewave

The lowest for any 10 year period was 18.8” from 83-84 to 92-93. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.6 2.1 6.8 5.2 4.1 0.1 18.8 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9 1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1 1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4

We are going to need to see some improvements during the rest of the 2020s for NYC to stay out of the cardinal decade snowfall basement since the 1950s. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 T 2.6 4.4 6.0 0.1 T 13.2 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 0.0 M M 2.3 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.3 1.1 5.3 12.9 11.8 6.0 0.6 37.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T T 6.6 7.2 10.1 3.5 0.5 28.0 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.8 3.0 6.1 8.7 5.7 0.1 24.4 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1994-1995 0.0 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8 1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9 1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.1 2.3 7.9 5.4 3.0 1.0 19.7 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1 1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6 1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4 1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.3 2.0 8.0 9.9 2.3 0.1 22.5 1978-1979 0.0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 29.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 1976-1977 0.0 T 5.1 13.0 5.8 0.6 T 24.5 1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3 1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.4 8.3 7.1 10.1 6.1 0.1 32.0 1968-1969 0.0 T 7.0 1.0 16.6 5.6 0.0 30.2 1967-1968 0.0 3.2 5.5 3.6 1.1 6.1 0.0 19.5 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 9.1 1.4 23.6 17.4 T 51.5 1965-1966 T 0.0 T 11.6 9.8 T 0.0 21.4 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 3.1 14.8 2.5 2.8 1.2 24.4 1963-1964 0.0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 44.7 1962-1963 T T 4.5 5.3 3.7 2.8 T 16.3 1961-1962 0.0 T 7.7 0.6 9.6 0.2 T 18.1 1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7 1959-1960 0.0 0.5 15.8 2.5 1.9 18.5 0.0 39.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.1 0.5 3.3 4.8 4.0 6.2 1.0 19.9 1958-1959 0.0 T 3.8 1.5 0.4 6.7 0.6 13.0 1957-1958 0.0 T 8.7 9.2 10.7 15.9 0.2 44.7 1956-1957 0.0 T 0.9 8.9 7.0 2.6 2.5 21.9 1955-1956 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.2 2.7 21.1 4.2 33.5 1954-1955 0.0 T 0.1 2.6 5.2 3.6 0.0 11.5 1953-1954 0.0 2.2 T 12.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 15.8 1952-1953 0.5 1.7 7.5 4.1 0.4 0.9 T 15.1 1951-1952 0.0 T 3.3 6.2 2.8 7.4 0.0 19.7 1950-1951 0.0 T 3.8 0.9 1.9 2.7 0.0 9.3 1949-1950 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 8.5 1.4 1.9 14.0

It seems like the forcing further west than forecast is helping to pop these transient Southeast ridges which reduce the suppression risk. But at the same time it introduces P-Type issues and milder temperatures. We would probably need a real thread the needle scenario before the month is out for a start to finish all snow with temperatures not rising much above freezing to maximize accumulation potential.

It’s not a pure MJO 8 since convection never really goes away near and west to the Dateline.

Yeah, much better chance of P-Type issues rather than outright suppression.

The record high for NYC today is 61° and it was only set last year. Temperatures should get very close to 60° today. 2/10 61 in 2023 61 in 2001 61 in 1990

The climate models aren’t good enough to answer the question. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100011

Pretty extreme to get an EF2 tornado during February in Wisconsin.

We haven’t been able to sustain a -EPO for more than shorter periods during the winters since 13-14 and 14-15 due to the overpowering Pacifc Jet influence with the record WPAC warm pool.

It just shows how sensitive the pattern has been to forcing west of the Dateline. The old EPS run had more subsidence there. Now there is some forcing starting to show up again. While the warm pool has diminished there in recent weeks, there is still an area of +30°C SST warmth. New run some forcing showing up now west of the Dateline Feb 20 to 25th in the blue -2 near 160E. Old run

The 0z EPS was moving in that direction with the forcing lingering longer than previous runs west of the Dateline.

Our first 12 month period above +1.5°C.

The SSW was needed in 2018 to flip the atmosphere back to its prior cold and snowy state which existed before the record 80° warmth in February.

That Valentine’s Day storm was one of the more unusual ice storms that I ever saw on the Long Island South Shore. It started with several areas getting a ton of sleet. A gas station canopy collapsed in Island Park from the weight. Then the immediate south shore beaches turned to freezing rain. I picked up about .25 of ice back in Long Beach. The first time areas south of Merrick Road had more freezing rain than areas north. It was also one of the more impressive flash freezes in the afternoon after the brief warm up. Was one of the few times 2000- 2009 that a February cold blocking pattern disappointed.

The biggest snowfall post SSW usually occurs when there was a higher snowfall during the season prior to the SSW. This was the case in years like 17-18 when we already had a snowy season before the SSW. So Long Island wound up with a record breaking 30” following the SSW in March. Other years like 06-07 had less snow following the SSW since there was hardly any snowfall before the event.

SSWs only work out for us to get above normal snowfall seasons when the Pacific cooperates and its cold enough.

Long range guidance really struggling with the fast Pacific flow. The EPS is backing off the cold that it was showing day 8-14. It now has milder temperatures than the previous run. New run Old run

The snowfall measurements were spot on in those days at Central Park when the NWS crew would head over from 30 Rock to take the measurements themselves.

On track for one of the warmest winters with a double SSW.

We’ll probably never see another winter like 86-87 again since It may be one of the few times that Central NJ got 50” and NYC didn’t. Most of the the other 50” seasons in Central NJ extended north with NYC getting 50” also.

Current North American snow extent at record lows for the date back to December levels.

Not commonly enough anymore to reach 25” in a season without a big KU event.

It seems like the increase in 6”+ days has masked the decline in 1-3”. So when we get the inevitable drop in larger events, there isn’t a small events cushion to fall back on. This has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 seasons in NYC with below average snowfall so far. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.1 2.2 3.9 5.5 2.2 T 14.4 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 0.0 M M 2.3 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5

The issue with much warmer winters is that we have become very KU dependent for NYC to get close to 25” on the season since the 1990s. During colder winters before then, it was easier for NYC to get closer to average with a bunch of small to moderate events. But snowfall seasons like that are pretty much non-existent these days.

We can get small to potentially moderate events with a hostile Pacific like we saw in January. But I think we’ll need to see improvements in later model runs out West to have a chance for NYC to go over 10” on the season. There is still time to put something bigger together. But it’s not a guarantee.