bluewave

The record breaking warm pool is still there in the NW Atlantic. This has been associated with our first 7 warmer than normal winters in a row since the super El Nino in 15-16. So the main question now is whether we get blocking for more snowfall or a stronger PV and less snow. But that probably won’t be known until until we get close to the start of the winter.

Development was frozen on the NAM after the March 2017 update. So it has fallen behind models like the HRRR and RGEM which have had major upgrades over the last 5 years. Building a new model to take its place is very challenging. The one area that the NAM seems to do better at is detecting the 750-950mb warm layer in winter storms. So it handles the changeover from snow to sleet and rain pretty well. NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance.

NYC used to be closer to the top for 90° days in NY before the tree growth became an issue in the late 90s. Now places like LGA and Poughkeepsie average more 90° days. You can see many examples in this thread and in others. 2022 #90 days in NY so far Data for January 1, 2022 through August 9, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 26 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 25 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 25 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 25 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 25 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 23 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 22 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 22 Albany Area ThreadEx 22 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 20 SHRUB OAK COOP 20 ELMIRA COOP 20 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 19 2021 Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 25 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 25 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 21 CENTERPORT COOP 21 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 20 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 20 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 18 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 18 SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP WBAN 18 Syracuse Area ThreadEx 18 WAVERLY COOP 18 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 17 2020 Data for January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 37 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 34 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 34 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 31 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 31 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 29 ELMIRA COOP 28 GANG MILLS NEW YORK RAWS 27 ELMIRA CORNING REGIONAL AP WBAN 26 NORTH TONAWANDA COOP 26 DANSVILLE COOP 25 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 24 WAVERLY COOP 23 WHITEHALL COOP 23 SHRUB OAK COOP 22 SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP WBAN 21 Syracuse Area ThreadEx 21 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 20 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 20 2018 Data for January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 38 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 38 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 31 ALBION COOP 26 WAVERLY COOP 26 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 25 WEST POINT COOP 23 MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 23 ELMIRA COOP 22 ROCHESTER GREATER INT'L WBAN 22 Rochester Area ThreadEx 22 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 21 DANSVILLE COOP 21 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 21 GANG MILLS NEW YORK RAWS 21 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 20 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 20 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 20 Before the tree growth 1995 Data for January 1, 1995 through December 31, 1995 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 29 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 29 SHERBURNE COOP 27 MINEOLA 1 NE COOP 27 COPAKE COOP 24 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 23 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 23 PORT JERVIS COOP 22 TROY LOCK AND DAM COOP 21 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 20 WAVERLY COOP 20 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 19 WHITEHALL COOP 19 ENDICOTT COOP 19 WEST POINT COOP 18 CORTLAND COOP 18 LOCKPORT 4E COOP 18 WEST NYACK COOP 18 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 18 OCEANSIDE COOP 18 POUGHKEEPSIE COOP 18 1993 Data for January 1, 1993 through December 31, 1993 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 39 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 39 GLENHAM COOP 30 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 28 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 28 RHINEBECK 4SE COOP 27 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 26 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 26 SETAUKET STRONG COOP 24 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 24 WEST POINT COOP 24 STORMVILLE COOP 24 WEST NYACK COOP 23 PORT JERVIS COOP 20 1991 Data for January 1, 1991 through December 31, 1991 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 GLENHAM COOP 43 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 39 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 39 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 39 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 34 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 34 PORT JERVIS COOP 33 AURORA RESEARCH FARM COOP 32 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 30 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 30 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 30 1980 Data for January 1, 1980 through December 31, 1980 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SCARSDALE COOP 38 DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 37 NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 35 WEST POINT COOP 34 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 32 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 32 GLENHAM COOP 28 NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 27 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 22 WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 22 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 22 SUFFERN COOP 20 HUDSON CORRECTIONAL FACILITY COOP 19 NEW PALTZ 4 SW COOP 18 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 18 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 18

Less heat and more rainfall potential next few weeks as a trough becomes established in the East. Some hints at a warmer last week of the month as the WAR builds back in. Then we’ll have to see what happens with the tropics heading into the peak of the season in September.

This was our warmest July 20th to August 9th from Philly into New England. There were several stations that averaged over 80° for the first time. Also notice how many of the top 5 warmest periods were since 2010. Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 84.4 0 2 1995-08-09 82.9 0 3 2011-08-09 82.6 0 4 1980-08-09 82.2 0 5 2020-08-09 82.0 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 81.7 0 2 1955-08-09 80.8 1 3 2011-08-09 80.5 0 4 1999-08-09 80.1 0 5 1980-08-09 79.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 84.4 0 2 2011-08-09 83.1 0 3 1999-08-09 81.9 0 4 2005-08-09 81.8 0 5 2006-08-09 81.7 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 83.7 0 2 2020-08-09 83.2 0 3 2006-08-09 83.0 0 4 2005-08-09 82.1 0 5 2010-08-09 81.9 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 81.3 0 2 1980-08-09 80.2 0 - 1949-08-09 80.2 0 3 2011-08-09 80.1 0 4 2015-08-09 80.0 0 5 2020-08-09 79.7 0 - 2006-08-09 79.7 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 80.0 0 2 1980-08-09 79.9 0 3 2020-08-09 78.5 0 - 2006-08-09 78.5 0 4 2011-08-09 78.2 0 5 2019-08-09 77.5 0 - 1999-08-09 77.5 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 79.6 0 2 1999-08-09 78.7 2 3 1983-08-09 78.2 0 4 1995-08-09 78.0 4 5 2006-08-09 77.3 0 - 1949-08-09 77.3 3 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 79.9 0 2 1933-08-09 78.2 2 3 2020-08-09 77.9 0 4 1955-08-09 77.3 0 5 1979-08-09 77.2 0 - 1938-08-09 77.2 0 Time Series Summary for Hartford Area, CT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 80.4 0 2 2020-08-09 79.2 0 3 1949-08-09 77.7 0 4 1979-08-09 77.6 0 5 2006-08-09 77.5 0 Time Series Summary for Providence Area, RI (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 81.1 0 2 2020-08-09 80.5 0 3 1980-08-09 78.6 0 4 2006-08-09 78.1 0 5 2018-08-09 78.0 0 Time Series Summary for BLUE HILL COOP, MA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 80.8 0 2 2020-08-09 78.0 0 3 1949-08-09 76.6 0 4 1980-08-09 76.5 0 5 2018-08-09 76.4 0 - 1979-08-09 76.4 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 81.7 0 2 1980-08-09 79.7 0 3 2018-08-09 79.1 0 4 1949-08-09 78.8 0 5 1994-08-09 78.6 0 Time Series Summary for Manchester Area, NH (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2022-08-09 80.5 0 2 2020-08-09 78.9 0 3 2018-08-09 77.7 0 4 1955-08-09 76.7 0 5 2019-08-09 76.4 0

It’s the first time that HVN averaged above 80° from July 20th to August 8th. Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 8 Missing Count 1 2022-08-08 80.7 0 2 2020-08-08 79.6 2 3 2019-08-08 78.2 0 4 2011-08-08 77.7 0 5 2018-08-08 77.5 0 6 2006-08-08 76.6 0 7 2010-08-08 76.5 0 8 1977-08-08 76.3 0 9 1955-08-08 76.1 0 10 1949-08-08 76.0 0

Warned storm along the North Shore is continuing the summer pattern.

The 100° at Newark is still below record levels since the August max of 105° was set on this date in 2001. Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 100 69 HX 106 8/9 105 in 2001 100 in 1949 96 in 2010

The statistical sea ice forecast just raised its average extent closer to 5 million sq for September. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/3/waf-d-19-0107.1.xml

It’s been a while since there were so many 105°+ heat index readings in NJ.

Big upwelling event along the Jersey Shore.

The warm spots have been at 90°+ on all but 3 days since July 12th. Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-09 Mesonet 92 73 78 73 99 58 29.93 29.90 0.00 21 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-08 Mesonet 96 73 77 71 98 45 30.08 29.88 0.00 23 SSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-07 Mesonet 93 76 81 68 97 47 30.19 30.05 0.21 29 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-06 Mesonet 94 68 76 67 100 48 30.24 30.13 0.00 37 SSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-05 Mesonet 93 71 75 66 96 43 30.19 30.07 0.00 17 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-04 Mesonet 99 63 74 62 100 40 30.08 29.98 0.78 34 E ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-03 Mesonet 92 65 66 57 91 32 30.03 29.89 0.00 21 NNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-02 Mesonet 94 64 73 63 100 44 29.90 29.78 0.00 19 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-08-01 Mesonet 79 66 70 65 99 69 30.06 29.86 0.55 11 N ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-31 Mesonet 91 58 69 57 98 35 30.19 30.05 0.00 17 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-30 Mesonet 90 64 70 55 93 33 30.15 29.90 0.00 22 N ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-29 Mesonet 86 68 73 66 99 53 29.94 29.83 0.00 18 NNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-28 Mesonet 94 70 76 66 100 48 29.89 29.77 1.33 27 NNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-27 Mesonet 92 60 68 57 96 35 29.98 29.86 0.00 15 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-26 Mesonet 85 63 74 54 93 36 30.04 29.90 0.00 16 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-25 Mesonet 94 74 76 67 93 47 29.92 29.83 0.00 23 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-24 Mesonet 102 67 73 62 97 29 30.05 29.90 0.00 24 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-23 Mesonet 101 66 72 56 99 26 30.03 29.93 0.00 19 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-22 Mesonet 99 70 70 57 92 28 29.94 29.73 0.00 20 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-21 Mesonet 100 69 76 63 98 33 29.74 29.62 0.00 26 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-20 Mesonet 100 67 72 65 94 35 29.81 29.68 0.00 24 WSW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-19 Mesonet 94 70 71 64 91 40 29.83 29.74 0.00 23 WNW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-18 Mesonet 97 72 76 70 97 44 30.00 29.73 0.00 31 SW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-17 Mesonet 90 68 72 65 100 45 30.05 29.97 0.20 14 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-16 Mesonet 92 66 70 58 98 35 30.14 30.00 0.00 15 ESE ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-15 Mesonet 91 60 68 53 95 31 30.15 30.06 0.00 15 SSE ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-14 Mesonet 91 63 69 58 97 36 30.07 29.89 0.00 19 NW ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-13 Mesonet 93 67 70 58 95 36 29.91 29.76 0.00 16 W ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-12 Mesonet 94 60 72 56 98 46 29.87 29.67 0.00 23 SW

White Plains just tied their warmest early morning temperatures above 80° for August. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=HPN&month=aug&var=max_tmpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The higher resolution HRRR has a high of 99° north of the LIE today ahead of the sea breeze front.

The usual warm spots will reach 95°-100° today before the scattered thunderstorms arrive this afternoon.

This was the 3rd warmest July in the US and #1 in parts of NJ and New England.

The 78° dewpoint at Poughkeepsie is 3rd highest on record for August. POUGHKEEPSIE MOSUNNY 86 78 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=POU&var=max_dwpf&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=aug&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Unusually tropical along the Long Island Sound . Upper 70s dewpoints in New Haven and a 105° heat index.The low 80s SSTs are near the warmest we have ever seen them. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=nwhc3 New Haven MOSUNNY 92 77 HX 105

The August monthly minimum has been rising faster at Old Forge in the Adirondacks and Poughkeepsie than NYC since 1950. Old Forge would occasionally drop to 32°or colder before the end of August. That hasn’t happened since the 1980s. Poughkeepsie hasn’t dropped into the 30s in August since then. Same goes for NYC not drooping below 55° in August.

95° heat index by 10am. Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 87 74 HX 95

Several stations from POU to EWR and Freehold-Marlboro are having their warmest July 20th to August 7th. Other sites are a close 2nd. The 2nd place sites can catch up with the heat the next few days when the period is extended to the 9th. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 2022-08-07 79.5 0 2 1933-08-07 78.7 1 3 1955-08-07 78.5 0 4 1995-08-07 78.4 5 5 2020-08-07 77.9 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 2022-08-07 82.3 0 2 1955-08-07 81.5 0 3 1999-08-07 80.4 1 4 2020-08-07 80.3 2 5 2011-08-07 80.1 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 2022-08-07 83.8 0 2 2011-08-07 83.3 0 3 1999-08-07 82.5 0 4 2006-08-07 82.1 0 - 2005-08-07 82.1 0 - 1995-08-07 82.1 0 5 2020-08-07 81.5 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 2022-08-07 83.4 0 2 2020-08-07 82.8 0 - 2005-08-07 82.8 0 3 2006-08-07 82.3 0 4 2011-08-07 81.6 2 5 2019-08-07 81.2 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 1995-08-07 79.3 4 2 2022-08-07 79.0 1 - 1999-08-07 79.0 1 3 1955-08-07 77.9 1 4 1983-08-07 77.8 0 5 2006-08-07 77.7 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 1955-08-07 81.3 0 2 2022-08-07 81.1 0 3 1999-08-07 80.5 0 4 2011-08-07 80.4 0 5 2020-08-07 80.0 0

The rural to suburban stations have been having more impressive low temperatures during this heatwave than places around NYC. While numerous stations set record low maxes on Sunday, HPN came closest to the all-time August monthly warmest minimum temperature at 77°. The 73° low at Sussex County was 2nd warmest also for August. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1988 78 0 2 2022 77 25 - 2006 77 0 - 1985 77 0 3 2016 76 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2001 74 1 2 2022 73 29 3 2021 72 0 - 2020 72 2 - 2016 72 0 - 2010 72 0 - 2006 72 0

Yeah, the Blue Hills Observatory and Nantucket had their warmest July on record. Time Series Summary for BLUE HILL COOP, MA - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.0 0 2 1952 75.7 1 3 2010 75.5 3 4 2013 75.3 0 5 2016 75.2 0 - 1994 75.2 0 Time Series Summary for NANTUCKET MEMORIAL AP, MA - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 73.6 0 2 2013 72.3 0 3 2010 72.2 0 4 1975 72.0 0 5 2021 71.6 1 - 1952 71.6 0

Three record highs at Boston during the last several days as the Gulf of Maine extreme marine heatwave continues.

We’ll see if the Euro frontal wave idea works out this week or it loses it in later runs.