bluewave

The sea breeze front has been stalling out along the North Shore since early July. So the South Shore has had one of its driest July into early August patterns. These areas may need to wait until the tropics become active to fully end the drought. But there will be opportunities for convection this week as the cold front may develop a wave of low pressure. Data for July 1, 2022 through August 6, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation SYOSSET COOP 5.96 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 5.03 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 4.41 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 4.36 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 3.99 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 3.90 CENTERPORT COOP 3.87 MOUNT SINAI COOP 3.81 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 3.79 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.77 SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.76 NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.60 CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 3.52 ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.38 QUEENS 2.1 NE CoCoRaHS 3.38 SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.12 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3.10 PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 3.05 MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 3.01 FLORAL PARK 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 3.01 NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.88 RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 2.70 JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.68 RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.52 FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 2.36 RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 2.34 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.27 HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 2.09 SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 1.84 STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 1.71 STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.61 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 1.56 MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 1.53 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1.47 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 1.35 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 1.33 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 1.31 BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 1.26 MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 1.12 WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 1.05 JACKSON HEIGHTS 0.3 WSW CoCoRaHS 1.05 ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 0.98 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0.97 CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 0.96 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.94 AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.94 ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.90 AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.87 PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.78 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.75 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 0.74 REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.73 SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 0.72 BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.69 SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.67 COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.50 BLUE POINT 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 0.27

6th warmest July on record in NJ. 8 out of the 10 warmest Julys have occurred since 2010. Nice write-up from the NJ climatologist. Some highlights https://www.njweather.org/content/once-again-hot-and-time-around-dry-july-2022-recap When it comes to recent hot Julys in New Jersey, the beat goes on. This year the heat was joined by quite limited precipitation, something not often seen in recent years. The statewide average temperature of 78.1° was 2.7° above the 1991–2020 normal, ranking 6th warmest since records commenced in 1895. Eight of the ten warmest Julys have occurred since 2010, leaving only 1955 and 1999 as top-ten outliers (Table 1). The statewide average maximum was 88.6° (+2.9°, 6th warmest) and the minimum 67.5° (+2.4°, 4th warmest). Northern counties averaged 75.9° (+2.2°, 9th warmest), southern counties 79.5° (+3.0°, 3rd warmest), and coastal areas 78.8° (+2.6°, tied as 4th warmest). On 24 July days one or more NJWxNet station reached a maximum of 90° or higher. This is just one day fewer than the record-hot July of 2020. Hillsborough-Duke (Somerset County) had 21 days of 90° maximums, one ahead of the Newark Airport station in Elizabeth (Union) and three above New Brunswick (Middlesex). The latter two stations have weather records extending back to 1931 and 1893 and this year experienced, respectively, their 2nd (tied with 1993; +4.4°) and 3rd (+3.1°) hottest Julys. It is no coincidence that these thermal anomalies were among the largest in NJ, given that these stations were among the driest locations. Newark Airport received just 0.55”, the least on record, while New Brunswick saw 0.79”, their second lowest July total. The resulting dry conditions meant that the ground and atmosphere heated up more readily than in wetter locations where there was more evaporation to assist in reducing temperatures. The airport recorded five days with highs of 100°–102°. Occurring consecutively (20th–24th), this marked the longest streak on record. Hillsborough-Duke missed this 100° run by a day, only making it to 99° on the 22nd.

The low of 73° at FWN was just 1° below the all-time warmest since the records began in 2000. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KFWN&hours=72 Maximum 1-Day Mean Min Temperature for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 2000-08-28 to 2022-08-06 1 74.0 2018-07-24 - 74.0 2014-09-02 - 74.0 2001-08-10 2 73.0 2021-06-27 - 73.0 2014-07-15 - 73.0 2011-07-22 - 73.0 2005-07-17 - 73.0 2002-07-29 3 72.0 2021-08-18 - 72.0 2020-08-02

We may be able to get a break from the 75-80° lows and 95-100° highs after Wednesday. The EPS brings a weak trough into the region by later Wednesday into Thursday. It continues with this weak trough theme days 6-10 and 11-15.

The low of 78° at White Plains was only 3° off the all-time warmest of 81°. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khpn Aug 7, 7:56 am 80 76 87 86 5 10.00 BKN018 1021.70 29.80 30.20 81 78 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 81 58 2 2013 78 1 - 2011 78 2 - 1995 78 85 - 1988 78 5

Looks like roost rings. https://www.weather.gov/grb/081110_roostring

Even our northern suburbs are having trouble dropping much below the upper 70s for near record warm minimums this morning with the high dewpoints. White Plains PTCLDY 79 76 90 CALM 30.18S Larchmont Harb N/A 79 N/A N/A S10 N/A Croton On Huds N/A 79 N/A N/A S6 N/A Danbury CLEAR 79 73 82 SW6

The record highs are occurring to our north in the August heatwave so far.

The current 78° dewpoint at Nantucket is the 2nd highest on record as the SSTs approach 80°. NANTUCKET MOSUNNY 83 78 https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ntkm3 Water Temperature (WTMP): 79.7 °F https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=MA_ASOS&zstation=ACK&var=max_dwpf&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=all&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

56 days reaching 100° in San Antonio by August 5th beats the next closest year by 16 days. Time Series Summary for San Antonio Area, TX (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Jan 1 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 2022-08-05 56 0 2 2009-08-05 40 0 3 1998-08-05 36 0 4 1980-08-05 30 0 5 2011-08-05 28 0

Even White Plains is close to a 90/70 high low spilt which is rare for your area from July 20th to August 5th. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1999-08-05 89.5 0 2 1995-08-05 87.9 0 3 2022-08-05 87.8 1 4 1952-08-05 87.3 0 5 2005-08-05 86.9 0 - 1949-08-05 86.9 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Min Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1995-08-05 70.3 2 2 2020-08-05 69.5 0 3 2022-08-05 69.4 1 4 2006-08-05 69.1 0 - 1994-08-05 69.1 0 5 1999-08-05 68.9 1

The Euro and GEM slowed the cold frontal passage down to later on Wednesday. So this will be near the warmest July 20th to August 10th periods on record. It will also rank as one of the areas warmest 3 week stretches of any time of the year. The usual warm spots could make a run on 100° from Monday into Wednesday.

The 0z EPS shifted to showing more blocking long range. This could mean better rainfall chances and less 95°+ major heat potential later in August. But it’s one of those things that could shift if the WAR is stronger in later runs. New run Old run

The average high temperature since July 20th has been near the warmest it has ever been across the region. Even places in the Hudson Valley like POU are have been over 90° which is rare. EWR and POU are very close with EWR at 93.2° and POU at 92.2°. The tree growth has kept NYC much cooler at 88.6°. New Brunswick is 3rd warmest at 92.3°. Freehold is #1 at 94.6°. The 2 Philly stations are also near the top above 90°. The high at PHL has been 92.3° and KPNE 92.5°. So not seeing any high temperature errors there like some have been mentioning. Newark is also in line with the other warm spots. This leaves NYC as having the only big error in the region. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1933-08-05 93.4 1 2 2022-08-05 92.2 0 3 1955-08-05 91.9 0 4 2005-08-05 91.1 0 5 1995-08-05 90.8 5 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 2022-08-05 93.2 0 2 2011-08-05 92.6 0 - 1993-08-05 92.6 0 4 2005-08-05 92.2 0 5 1999-08-05 91.7 0 6 1995-08-05 91.6 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1999-08-05 91.3 0 2 1955-08-05 91.1 0 3 2005-08-05 90.6 0 4 1995-08-05 90.5 0 5 1993-08-05 90.4 0 6 2011-08-05 90.1 0 - 1944-08-05 90.1 0 7 1980-08-05 89.9 0 8 1949-08-05 89.4 0 9 2015-08-05 89.2 0 10 2010-08-05 88.9 0 11 1933-08-05 88.8 0 12 2022-08-05 88.6 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1999-08-05 93.4 0 2 1955-08-05 93.1 0 3 2022-08-05 92.3 0 4 2011-08-05 92.2 0 5 1894-08-05 91.2 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 2022-08-05 94.6 0 2 1955-08-05 93.2 0 3 1999-08-05 92.3 1 4 2011-08-05 91.6 0 5 2020-08-05 91.1 1 Time Series Summary for NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1999-08-05 93.1 0 2 2011-08-05 92.6 0 3 2022-08-05 92.5 0 4 2019-08-05 91.2 0 5 2005-08-05 90.5 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1995-08-05 93.8 0 2 2022-08-05 92.3 0 3 2011-08-05 92.2 0 4 1999-08-05 92.0 0 - 1987-08-05 92.0 0 5 1955-08-05 91.5 0

Numerous flash flood reports coming out of Lakewood.

Yeah, the steering flow under 500 mb is pretty much non existent. So these storms rain themselves out in place. While there could some hail contamination, radar estimates have several areas over 2.00” in NE PA.

POU and LGA are among the NY 90° day leaders at 20 through the 4th. Places like Newark and Freehold are at the top in NJ with over 30 days. Philly to Harrisburg have the most 90° days in PA. Data for January 1, 2022 through August 5, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 20 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 20 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 20 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 20 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 20 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 5, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 33 Newark Area ThreadEx 33 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 32 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 32 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 5, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 30 Philadelphia Area ThreadEx 30 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 28 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 27

The record high tie of 98° yesterday at AVP was the 2nd warmest on record for the month of August. Time Series Summary for Avoca Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1918 102 0 2 2022 98 27 - 2001 98 0 - 1948 98 0 - 1944 98 0 - 1930 98 0 - 1916 98 0

The 99° high at Beacon today was the warmest for any NY Mesonet site since it was set up several years ago.

It was a great summer in Long Beach with smaller beach crowds and much better parking. Perfect temperatures for bike riding on the Long Beach boardwalk. Pretty impressive heavy rain pattern also along with record summer blocking.

Yeah, June into July 2009 was our 2nd coldest on record since the 1930s.That was the last time that we had any top 10 coldest summer months. But it has been one top 10 warmest summer month and season after another since then. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31 Missing Count 1 1940-07-31 71.5 0 2 2009-07-31 71.6 0 3 1947-07-31 71.7 0 4 1936-07-31 72.0 0 5 1932-07-31 72.1 0 6 1958-07-31 72.2 0 - 1946-07-31 72.2 0 7 1945-07-31 72.4 0 8 1956-07-31 72.5 0 - 1938-07-31 72.5 0 9 1933-07-31 72.6 0 10 1985-07-31 72.8 0 - 1935-07-31 72.8 0

The raw high temperature data from our last heatwave speaks for itself. 7-20 Newark…100° Somerset…100° Hillsborough-Duke…100° Brownsville…100° Corona….100° NYC…..95°……..-5 7-21 Newark..l00° Freehold-Marlboro…100° Hillsborough-Duke…100° NYC….92°……-8 7-22 Newark…100° Harrison…100° Somerset…100° Brownsville…100° Corona….100° NYC…94°…..-6 7-23 Newark….101° Harrison…101° Somerset…100° Freehold-Marlboro…100° Hillsborough-Duke…101° Brownsville…101° Corona…100° Ozone Park….100° NYC….95°….-6 7-24 Newark 102° Harrison…102° Somerset…101° Freehold-Marlboro…101° Hillsborough-Duke….102° Corona…101° Fresh Kills…100° NYC….95°….-7

You have to take a look at both the min an max temperatures and departures. The difference between KPHL and KPNE for the daily July highs and departures was very small. The minimums were where there was a larger spread. Kudos to the local NWS office for whatever investigation they are doing. That is more than we can say about NYC which has had much bigger errors since the 1990s. July PHL…max…90.5….+2.7……min…73.7….+4.1 PNE…max….90.4….+2.2….min….71.5….+2.1

While it took some time to find, this paper explains why the MADIS range test that the Gladstone site uses is so flawed. NYC is a chronically bad type of site mentioned below. The trees covering the ASOS has been an ongoing issue since the 1990s. http://www.thinkmind.org/articles/geoprocessing_2019_1_10_30010.pdf Range tests are not perfect. The record high United States temperature would fail MADIS’s range test, although it would pass MesoW- est’s test. Both MADIS and MesoWest further employ a suite of tests that go beyond their simple range tests. “Bud- dy” tests compare an observation to neighboring observa- tions. MADIS uses Optimal Interpolation in conjunction with cross-validation to measure the conformity of an ob- servation to its neighbors [2]. MesoWest estimates observa- tions using multivariate linear regression [5]. A real obser- vation is compared to the estimate, and if the deviation is high, then the real observation is flagged as questionable. These approaches are flawed in that they do not account for bad metadata, such as incorrect timestamps or incorrect locations. They do not account for chronically bad sites which produce bad data including data that may sometimes appear correct. Of even greater concern, they may not do a good job in assessing accuracy and may be incorrectly la- beling bad data as good and good data as bad. The consequences of ignoring data quality are great. How can we trust our applications and models if the inputs are bad? In turn, how can we better assess data for quality so that we can be confident in its use? In this paper, we present new evaluation results for our previously-published method including evaluation with several new data sets. These results are significant in that they demonstrate the challenges of evaluation of methods for data quality assessment of spatio-temporal weather sen- sor data. The rest of this paper is organized as follows: Sec- tion II presents relevant literature, Section III identifies general challenges, Section IV defines our approach,

The daytime highs have been right in line with the other stations in July. Maybe the drought with the lower dewpoints allowed the surrounding stations to cool off more at night? So the built up area closer to Philly was the warm spot at night. Data for July 1, 2022 through July 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Max Temperature NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 92.1 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 91.5 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 91.4 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 91.4 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 90.5 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 90.4 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 90.4 PA NORRISTOWN COOP 90.0 Data for July 1, 2022 through July 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Min Temperature PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 73.7 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 73.0 DE DOVER COOP 72.0 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.5 MD ROYAL OAK 2 SSW COOP 71.1