bluewave

I am going to repost this from our discussion last week so we can find it for easy future reference near the end of the July thread. I like putting stuff near the beginning or end of a thread since it can be hard to find again when it’s in the middle. So we can show this to people when they want to post data from that site. While it took some time to find, this paper explains why the MADIS range test that the Gladstone site uses is so flawed. NYC is a chronically bad type of site mentioned below. The trees covering the ASOS has been an ongoing issue since the 1990s. http://www.thinkmind.org/articles/geoprocessing_2019_1_10_30010.pdf Range tests are not perfect. The record high United States temperature would fail MADIS’s range test, although it would pass MesoW- est’s test. Both MADIS and MesoWest further employ a suite of tests that go beyond their simple range tests. “Bud- dy” tests compare an observation to neighboring observa- tions. MADIS uses Optimal Interpolation in conjunction with cross-validation to measure the conformity of an ob- servation to its neighbors [2]. MesoWest estimates observa- tions using multivariate linear regression [5]. A real obser- vation is compared to the estimate, and if the deviation is high, then the real observation is flagged as questionable. These approaches are flawed in that they do not account for bad metadata, such as incorrect timestamps or incorrect locations. They do not account for chronically bad sites which produce bad data including data that may sometimes appear correct. Of even greater concern, they may not do a good job in assessing accuracy and may be incorrectly la- beling bad data as good and good data as bad. The consequences of ignoring data quality are great. How can we trust our applications and models if the inputs are bad? In turn, how can we better assess data for quality so that we can be confident in its use? In this paper, we present new evaluation results for our previously-published method including evaluation with several new data sets. These results are significant in that they demonstrate the challenges of evaluation of methods for data quality assessment of spatio-temporal weather sen- sor data. The rest of this paper is organized as follows: Sec- tion II presents relevant literature, Section III identifies general challenges, Section IV defines our approach,

The much stronger southerly flow this month caused erosion along the Jersey Shore without a major coastal storm. The strong onshore flow has been a prominent feature this month with the extended 100° heat in NJ and cooler conditions along the South Shore. So it was a rare July for all that 100° heat not to make it east of Queens.

Yes, it’s a North Shore site that didn’t report on a few days. My point was for all the South Shore sires that are at .5 or less for July. This puts FRG at the driest July since records began in 2000. Driest July at Bridgehampton since 1944. My area of SW Suffolk is .25 to .50. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 0.49 3 2 2013 1.15 2 - 2002 1.15 0 4 2011 1.35 0 5 2012 1.49 0 Time Series Summary for BRIDGEHAMPTON, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1944 0.52 0 2 2022 0.53 1 3 1968 0.61 0 4 1994 0.67 0 5 1952 0.71 0

Only the 3rd time that Newark reached 30 days of 90° highs by July 30th. So 40 days looks like a given. Could make a run on 50 days. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Jan 1 to Jul 30 Missing Count 1 2010-07-30 37 0 2 1993-07-30 33 0 3 2022-07-30 30 4 1987-07-30 29 0 5 1994-07-30 28 0 6 2021-07-30 27 0 - 1991-07-30 27

This is one of the driest Julys on record along the South Shore with many spots under .50. Monthly Data for July 2022 for NY COASTAL Climate Division Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation BLUE POINT 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 0.15 COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.21 SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.22 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.25 AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.26 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.31 SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 0.31 REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.32 PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.32 WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.37 BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.43 AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.44 MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 0.44 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.48 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 0.49 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0.53

Some trees here in SW Suffolk are starting to lose their leaves due to the drought stress. Things will dry out further today on a warm downslope flow. It’s soundings like this that show why it so hard to get rain here.

We can add Utqiagvik to the list of spots with extreme rainfall this month.

Too bad their isn’t more room at that spot since it would save many a long trip out to Long Island which has the same temperatures. July 20th NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 95 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 95 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 95 July 21st NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 93 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 92 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 92 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 92 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 91 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 91 July 22nd NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 94 NY SYOSSET COOP 94 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 93 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 93 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 93 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 93 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 92 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 92 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 92 July 23rd NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 96 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 96 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 95 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 94 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 94 July 24 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 96 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 95 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 95 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 95 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 95 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 95

The tree growth issue at the Central Park ASOS has caused the temperatures during the last heatwave run cooler than the warmest urban sites by 5-8°. The main problem here is that the major media outlets focus very heavily on that Central Park temperature for their forecasts. Most forecasts for NYC were highs in the mid 90s which reflects the error at the ASOS. Each day from 7-20 to 7-24 there were multiple 100° or warmer temperatures. Most forecasts didn’t mention 100° potential on their broadcasts. Instead, there were several twitter posts saying how the 100° readings were not reliable. This is doing a giant disservice to the public experiencing the 100° heat. The list below is all the 100° highs each day and the Central Park differential. The NYC micronet data is from the ground level sites to match the other networks. 7-20 Newark…100° Somerset…100° Hillsborough-Duke…100° Brownsville…100° Corona….100° NYC…..95°……..-5 7-21 Newark..l00° Freehold-Marlboro…100° Hillsborough-Duke…100° NYC….92°……-8 7-22 Newark…100° Harrison…100° Somerset…100° Brownsville…100° Corona….100° NYC…94°…..-6 7-23 Newark….101° Harrison…101° Somerset…100° Freehold-Marlboro…100° Hillsborough-Duke…101° Brownsville…101° Corona…100° Ozone Park….100° NYC….95°….-6 7-24 Newark 102° Harrison…102° Somerset…101° Freehold-Marlboro…101° Hillsborough-Duke….102° Corona…101° Fresh Kills…100° NYC….95°….-7

Several of our stations are near the top of the list for July heat and lack of rainfall. Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 79.7 0 - 1955 79.7 0 3 2022 79.2 3 4 2013 79.1 0 5 2020 79.0 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1910 0.31 0 2 1944 0.68 0 3 2022 0.77 3 4 1968 0.85 0 5 1999 0.99 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82.7 2 - 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 0.55 2 2 1932 0.84 0 3 1966 0.89 0 4 1999 1.01 0 5 1955 1.14 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 3 2022 76.9 2 - 2020 76.9 0 4 2019 76.8 0 5 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1954 0.46 0 2 1970 0.54 0 3 1966 0.69 0 4 2002 0.71 0 5 1998 0.97 0 6 1999 1.03 0 7 2022 1.10 2 8 1974 1.29 0 9 1957 1.41 0 10 2012 1.54 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 80.6 0 2 2010 79.7 0 3 2022 78.4 3 4 2013 78.1 0 5 2011 78.0 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 0.49 3 2 2013 1.15 2 - 2002 1.15 0 3 2011 1.35 0 4 2012 1.49 0 5 2015 1.76 1 Time Series Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1998 0.23 18 2 1968 0.28 0 3 2022 0.31 6 4 1966 0.34 0 5 2018 0.68 15

Pretty extreme variations this month between 1000 year rainfall events in St Louis and Kentucky and other areas with one of their driest Julys.

Any small amount of moisture we get will dry up pretty quickly with the 100°+ heat being advertised by later next week.

The Cocorahs reports are very reliable. But when you see a 0, it means the station hasn’t reported. All of the other stations that are under .50 in my area of the South Shore are correct. You can see the Montclair station hasn’t updated when you compare it to the surrounding stations that did.

Pretty extreme to go from 20 stations over 10.00” last July to more than 20 under .50 this year so far. Monthly Data for July 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 14.76 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 12.54 CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 12.06 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 11.43 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 11.09 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 11.04 CT WESTPORT 2.5 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.01 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.98 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.75 CT DARIEN 1.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.71 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.68 CT STAMFORD 4.2 S CoCoRaHS 10.62 CT DURHAM 2.2 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.58 NY QUEENS 3.7 N CoCoRaHS 10.54 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.48 NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 10.32 CT WEST HAVEN 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 10.29 CT REDDING 1.4 E CoCoRaHS 10.25 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.24 NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 10.13 CT KILLINGWORTH 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 10.07 Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY BLUE POINT 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 0.15 CT IVORYTON 0.9 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.15 NY LARCHMONT 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.18 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.19 NY COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.21 NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.22 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.24 NY AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.26 NY SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 0.30 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.30 NY PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.31 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 0.31 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 0.32 NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.32 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 0.34 NY AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.35 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.37 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.39 CT NEW HAVEN 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.39 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 0.41 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.41 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 0.44 NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 0.46 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.46 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 0.49

The tropics probably won’t start to become more active until the mid-lat dry air intrusions relax.

80° Julys used to only be common around DC before 2010. Now they regularly extend up to NYC Metro. One of these years Hartford will have their first 80° July. They came very close in 2020. Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 82.8 NJ HARRISON COOP 81.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 81.1 Monthly Data for July 2022 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 82.2 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 81.1 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 81.0 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 80.8 DE DOVER COOP 80.5 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 80.1 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 80.0 Monthly Data for July 2022 for Baltimore MD/Washington DC NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature MD ST INIGOES WEBSTER NAVAL OUTLYING FIELD WBAN 82.3 MD PATUXENT RIVER NAS WBAN 81.3 VA WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 81.2 VA QUANTICO MCAS WBAN 80.6 DC NATIONAL ARBORETUM DC COOP 80.5 MD BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 80.4 MD REISTERSTOWN 2 NW COOP 80.1 Hardford came close in 2020 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD BRAINARD FIELD, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.3 0 2 2010 78.8 0 3 2016 78.7 2 4 2013 78.6 0 5 2022 77.9 3 6 2011 77.6 0 7 2019 77.3 1 8 1949 76.8 0 9 2012 76.7 0 - 2006 76.7 0 10 2018 76.6 0

Las Vegas traded places with Newark for the heavy rainfall this month.

Harrison is having their warmest July so far also. But the heavier rains than Newark kept them a degree cooler. Even if they miss the top spot, it will still be close. Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81.7 3 2 2020 81.5 0 3 2019 81.4 0 4 2012 81.2 2 5 2010 81.1 2 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1999 0.64 0 2 2002 1.32 0 3 1998 1.45 0 4 2022 1.76 6

Newark is currently the warmest and driest July on record with a few days to go. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82.9 3 2 2011 82.7 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2013 80.9 0 7 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 8 2019 80.6 0 9 1955 80.5 0 10 1988 80.4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2022 0.54 3 2 1932 0.84 0 3 1966 0.89 0 4 1999 1.01 0 5 1955 1.14 0 6 2002 1.19 0 7 1974 1.31 0 8 1998 1.34 0 9 1954 1.45 0 10 1977 1.51 0 - 1957 1.51 0

Lake Superior will be the only unusually cool spot surrounded by near record early August heat. 3rd coldest Lake Superior behind 2014 and 1996 in late July since 1995 https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150107/a-lake-of-superior-cold

That wouldn’t be enough considering how many locations are having one of their driest Julys after a dry June. It’s tough to break a drought with scattered convection. So many 90° and 100° days really dry things out fast this time of year. We generally need a tropical system or a super soaker non tropical event like August 2011 to break a summer drought. Plus our deficit started in June with some spots at 25% of normal rainfall. So the driest areas are running -5.00 to -6.00 inches below normal since June 1st.

80° Julys used to be rare at our warmest urban stations. Now they are occurring frequently since 2010. Newark and Harrison are having their warmest July so far. LGA is in 6th place due to a stronger onshore flow influence this month. For our more rural locations like White Plains, it’s the 76° mark which has become very common since 2010. The 76.8° average this month is the 4th highest for July. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 82.8 4 2 2011 82.7 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2013 80.9 0 7 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 8 2019 80.6 0 9 1955 80.5 0 10 1988 80.4 0 11 2002 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81.7 3 2 2020 81.5 0 3 2019 81.4 0 4 2012 81.2 2 5 2010 81.1 2 6 2002 80.9 0 7 2013 80.7 0 8 2011 80.5 3 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 82.9 0 2 2010 82.8 0 3 1999 81.9 0 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2022 81.1 4 - 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 11 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 12 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2013 77.0 0 - 2010 77.0 0 3 2020 76.9 0 4 2022 76.8 4 - 2019 76.8 0 5 1966 76.7 0 - 1955 76.7 2 6 2011 76.6 1 17 2012 76.4 0 8 2016 76.3 0 - 1983 76.3 1 9 1952 76.2 0 - 1949 76.2 0 10 1995 76.0 6

Central NJ got an upgrade to D1 moderate drought today. Much of Long Island was added to D0 dry. Severe D2 drought expanded in Eastern New England.

More of the same with this convection as most places picked up less than .25. Only .19 at Wantagh and closer to .10 in other spots. So just enough to wet the ground here.

The vegetation on the Long Island South Shore is as brown as in this drone video from Central NJ.