bluewave

Most of the guidance like the EPS and GEM have a slower track north with Hermine. So the OP Euro seems to be on its own at 0z The other models have Hermine missing the first trough and stalling out near Florida. The GEM may be the middle ground with Herimine finally getting lifted north with the second trough next weekend. Hopefully, we can eventually get some rain from this.

The OP Euro is a faster outlier with the track of the tropical system next week. Several EPS members stall the system near the Southeast as blocking builds to the north. So the strength of the blocking will determine if we can get a decent rain or not.

Impressive Fiona wave break will set up an strong blocking pattern for the rest of the month. First lows near 50° in NYC by Saturday. Then the next tropical system gets stuck underneath strong Canadian high pressure to the north. So that my be our best shot at soaking rains around the area depending on the exact track.

Looks like Canadian high pressure will dominate later in the month. So plenty of easterly flow in the forecast. Any tropical moisture coming underneath will help us out.

The Fiona wave break will produce a record 590dm ridge south of Greenland. So Friday into Saturday looks like the first actual fall weather of the season. Lows near 50° in NYC and highs not getting out of the 60s for a day or two. We continue to need record blocking just to get some cooler weather around here.

That’s a given but the GEM and Euro were just as hot. The blocking verified stronger. So we get a +10 day instead of +15 to +20. That’s what passes for cooler in our warming climate. Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ September 19, 2022 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 77 93 in 1983 62 in 1987 Min Temperature M 60 70 in 2016 44 in 1959

It looks like the heat may peak today in the upper 80s instead of the mid 90s which was forecast last week. So I guess this counts as making slow progress toward fall. NYC could see the first lower 50s of the season by next weekend as a stronger blocking pattern sets up. New run for today Old run much warmer Cool down for later in week

The AWB produces a near record 500mb height anomaly just south of Greenland. So the -NAO could have some lasting power. It could be another case of needing record blocking to get some cooler to closer to normal temperatures around here.

Classic recurving hurricane hurricane track and cool down that pumps the -NAO later in the week.

Fiona would be a nice cold front for us on the 0z Euro.

Another factor is how the record Bering Sea storm for September will influence the 500 mb pattern.

First refreshing airmass since last spring across the area. We needed stronger enough blocking to pull it off. The alignment of the blocking and trough to the north will eventually influence the track of Fiona.

Only .16 since Monday at the Wantagh mesonet. Precipitation 6 hours: 0.16″ 1 day: 0.16″

Similar finish to last year with near a 5 million sq km September average extent.

Record heat potential to start astronomical fall next week. The Euro, GFS, and GEM agree that low to mid 90s will be possible. It would be the most impressive late season heat since 2019. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-09-12 9/20 92 in 1983 88 in 1946 87 in 1985 9/21 90 in 1940 88 in 1998 88 in 1980 9/22 94 in 1970 93 in 1931 92 in 1980 9/23 94 in 1970 93 in 2019 93 in 1959 9/24 92 in 2017 92 in 1959 89 in 1970 9/25 91 in 1970 90 in 2017 90 in 2010+ 9/26 90 in 2007 90 in 1958 88 in 1970 9/27 91 in 1998 89 in 1933 88 in 2017 9/28 87 in 2014 86 in 2019 85 in 1954+ 9/29 89 in 1945 83 in 1959 82 in 2015+ 9/30 89 in 1986 85 in 1954 82 in 1960+ 10/1 85 in 1986 85 in 1950 84 in 2019+ 10/2 96 in 2019 86 in 2013 86 in 2002+

Another North Shore special with very little on the South Shore.

That was a preview in September 84 of Newark going to -8 in January 85. Much more cold air available in those days. That was the last time Newark almost got down to -10. 9/16 42 in 1984 46 in 1966 47 in 2007 1/21 -8 in 1985 3 in 1984 4 in 2019

Endless summer pattern so far this month across the area. Many urban stations still haven’t fallen below 60° yet. Several suburban stations haven’t dropped below 55° yet. These are among the warmest minimums we have seen this far into September. There is a chance that we may finally pass these early fall benchmarks by later this week with a brief cool down. But temperatures rebound back to around 90° by early next week. So September has become more like a 4th month of summer rather than the first month of fall. Very warm minimums so far across the area Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Aug 1 to Sep 12 Missing Count 1 2015-09-12 63 0 2 2022-09-12 62 1 3 2020-09-12 61 0 - 2016-09-12 61 0 - 2014-09-12 61 0 - 1996-09-12 61 0 4 1966-09-12 60 0 - 1947-09-12 60 0 - 1905-09-12 60 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Aug 1 to Sep 12 Missing Count 1 2015-09-12 57 0 - 2011-09-12 57 0 - 1996-09-12 57 6 2 2022-09-12 56 1 3 2005-09-12 55 0 - 1999-09-12 55 5 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Aug 1 to Sep 12 Missing Count 1 1996-09-12 58 0 2 2020-09-12 57 0 - 2018-09-12 57 0 - 2014-09-12 57 0 3 2022-09-12 56 1 - 2016-09-12 56 0 - 2015-09-12 56 0 - 1983-09-12 56 0 Brief cool down later this week 90° readings may return by early next week

4th warmest summer on record for the NNJ and NYC/LI climate zones. NYC-LI 201006 - 201008 75.2°F 128 202006 - 202008 74.3°F 127 201606 - 201608 74.2°F 126 202206 - 202208 74.1°F 125 200506 - 200508 73.9°F 124 201106 - 201108 73.9°F 124 199906 - 199908 73.7°F 122 201206 - 201208 73.4°F 121 201806 - 201808 73.4°F 121 202106 - 202108 73.4°F 121 201906 - 201908 73.2°F 118 201506 - 201508 73.1°F 117 194906 - 194908 73.0°F 116 200606 - 200608 73.0°F 116 NNJ 201006 - 201008 73.6°F 128 202006 - 202008 73.6°F 128 200506 - 200508 73.5°F 126 202206 - 202208 73.3°F 125 201606 - 201608 73.2°F 124 199906 - 199908 72.9°F 123 201806 - 201808 72.7°F 122 202106 - 202108 72.7°F 122 194906 - 194908 72.5°F 120 200206 - 200208 72.5°F 120 201106 - 201108 72.5°F 120 201906 - 201908 72.5°F 120

Scattered showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday with a chance that the wet spots could pick up over 1.00”. Then temperatures warm back into the 80s. First 50s of the season possible for NYC later in the week. Then temperatures rebound back into the 80s next week after the brief cool down. The warm spots may be able to sneak in another 90° for the season.

Freehold-Marlboro set a new record for their most 90° days and lead the entire state of New Jersey. So a continuation of the record hot summers theme since 2010. POU had the most 90° days in NY for the season. But if the Central Park site was properly maintained, then they would have had 30+ days also. Data for January 1, 2022 through September 10, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 53 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 52 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 51 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49 Newark Area ThreadEx 49 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 46 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2022 53 124 2 2010 52 7 3 2018 48 7 4 2021 43 0 5 2016 42 4 6 2020 40 7 7 2002 38 4 8 1944 37 3 9 1999 35 17 10 2015 34 3 - 1955 34 4 Data for January 1, 2022 through September 10, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 34 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 34 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 30 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 30 SHRUB OAK COOP 29 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 27 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 25 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 25

It will be interesting to see if we can get our first fall-like cold front of the season later next week. But models have been correcting warmer recently with forecast cool downs. NYC has only dropped dropped to 62° so far which is continuing the later first 50s of fall theme. White Plains has only fallen to 56° making it one of the later first fall readings under 55° First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2016 06-14 (2016) 58 09-17 (2016) 59 94 1947 06-25 (1947) 58 09-17 (1947) 58 83 1966 06-13 (1966) 58 09-15 (1966) 51 93 2020 06-15 (2020) 59 09-14 (2020) 59 90 2015 06-27 (2015) 58 09-14 (2015) 59 78 1996 06-03 (1996) 54 09-14 (1996) 57 102 2014 06-15 (2014) 59 09-13 (2014) 58 89 1905 06-28 (1905) 57 09-13 (1905) 59 76 1959 06-20 (1959) 56 09-12 (1959) 56 83 2010 06-11 (2010) 58 09-11 (2010) 59 91 2005 06-20 (2005) 59 09-11 (2005) 58 82 1993 06-13 (1993) 59 09-11 (1993) 55 89 1980 06-21 (1980) 59 09-11 (1980) 57 81 1933 07-04 (1933) 58 09-11 (1933) 56 68 2012 06-26 (2012) 58 09-10 (2012) 58 75 1995 06-29 (1995) 57 09-10 (1995) 57 72 2018 06-12 (2018) 57 09-09 (2018) 55 88 First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2005 06-23 (2005) 53 09-24 (2005) 51 92 2015 06-07 (2015) 51 09-21 (2015) 54 105 2011 06-15 (2011) 54 09-15 (2011) 50 91 2020 06-16 (2020) 53 09-12 (2020) 54 87 1959 06-20 (1959) 50 09-12 (1959) 50 83 2018 07-08 (2018) 53 09-09 (2018) 53 62 1980 07-07 (1980) 54 09-09 (1980) 52 63 2002 07-12 (2002) 54 09-06 (2002) 53 55 1962 06-14 (1962) 52 09-06 (1962) 49 83 1978 07-12 (1978) 52 09-05 (1978) 52 54 1997 07-20 (1997) 54 09-04 (1997) 50 45 1990 06-13 (1990) 48 09-04 (1990) 54 82 2021 07-31 (2021) 53 09-03 (2021) 52 33

Pretty good illustration of why the tropics were so quiet this summer. The Hadley cell stretching created more stability than usual in the tropics. This lead to the monsoon circulations from India to North America being wetter with record rainfall amounts and flooding. The wettest area of the tropics was focused over the -IOD region near Australia. Plus it allowed stronger tropical development in the Atlantic to shift further north. So a much drier summer for our area which lost out on all the tropical systems and heavy rains of recent summers.

It was the 3rd coldest February in NYC and 2nd coldest at Blue Hill Observatory.

The blocking builds further south closer to the record warm pool east of New England. So it’s less warm instead of cool pattern like we got during the 20-21 winter. Before the warm pool, a strong -NAO and -AO was also accompanied by much cooler temperatures.