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bluewave

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Everything posted by bluewave

  1. bluewave
    They were too amped with the January 2015 blizzard and too suppressed with the January 2016 blizzard.
  2. bluewave
    My only issue with the Euro and EPS after the upgrades around 2014 and 2015 is how erratic the model has been with east coast lows. We have either seen outright long range suppressed solutions which correct NW closer to storm time. At other times there have been overamped lows with are modeled too deep and get weaker and more strung out closer to storm time. I used to really like the model for EC storm tracks in the period from Sandy to Nemo. But something really changed with the model after that period.
  3. bluewave
    Yeah, two issues in play. The actual ratios and the raw model cold biases. But even the MOS numbers have been too cold at times this winter. That’s why I wouldn’t even think about specific accumulations until under 72 hrs or even 24 hrs in a marginal situation like this.
  4. bluewave
    I never said that it couldn’t snow. Just that those 10:1 charts look overdone for such a marginal airmass.
  5. bluewave
    A good cold air source wouldn’t have highs in the upper 30s. Marginal air masses leave less leeway for significant snowfall from short term model changes.
  6. bluewave
    I don’t trust those 10:1 charts in marginal temperatures.
  7. bluewave
    It would be great if we had the cold airmass that we did in 2020 for this storm. Highs in the low 30s and lows around 20° have produced some memorable snowstorms for us. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Snowfall 2020-12-16 31 24 6.5 2020-12-17 33 24 4.0 2020-12-18 32 24 0.0 2020-12-19 32 20 0.0
  8. bluewave
    The 0z EPS has a stronger trough in the West now so it has a warmer pattern for our area.
  9. bluewave
    Why would you ignore a cold bias which has been showing up all season?
  10. bluewave
    Because both sets of solutions are showing the same challenges with the warm air. The first challenge is a more wrapped up system which could correct NW under 72 hrs. The GFS has the 2nd challenge with a trough in the West pumping the ridge and temps in the mid 30s. But it takes longer for the system to consolidate so the surface low is weaker. While it’s still too early, the RGEM is weaker and more strung out with the low than the GEM near the end of it’s run.
  11. bluewave
    It’s tough to rely on those 10:1 maps with marginal temperatures as the positive snow depth charts are much lower.
  12. bluewave
    The GFS has a weaker and further south system so it can’t draw enough cold into the storm. The ridge ahead the storm was still strong enough so temps are in the mid 30s.
  13. bluewave
    That historic January Arctic outbreak produced the all-time 2nd coldest temperature on record at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1933-1934 -14 0 2 1984-1985 -8 0 3 1981-1982 -7 0 - 1942-1943 -7 0 4 1935-1936 -4 0 - 1934-1935 -4 0 5 1993-1994 -2 0 - 1976-1977 -2 0 - 1962-1963 -2 0 - 1960-1961 -2 0
  14. bluewave
  15. bluewave
    Tough situation for the Northeast coming off the wettest December and calendar year at several locations.
  16. bluewave
    Yeah, the NW trend is your friend if the forecast track is starting out far enough southeast in a more favorable pattern for coastal snowstorms.
  17. bluewave
    My guess is that it’s related to the Gulf Stream warming over the last 40 years.
  18. bluewave
    It doesn’t have to since just having a trough in that location usually leads to the models correcting stronger with Southeast ridge the closer in time we get.
  19. bluewave
    The trough is more consolidated near the Four Corners. The GFS forecast sounding is likely underestimating the warming near the coast with such a strong easterly LLJ off the Ocean.
  20. bluewave
    Stronger Southeast ridge this run leading to warmer storm track for the coast. This was expected with the trough in the West. New run Old run
  21. bluewave
  22. bluewave
    You can see why the GEFS has a deeper trough in the West than the EPS. Much stronger MJO through 4. I know the EPS has issues with convection near the Maritime Continent related to the barrier effect. But this is the most extreme MJO divergence I have ever see between the two models.
  23. bluewave
    If this is as amped as several models show, then a coastal hugger track like the CMC is possible.
  24. bluewave
    First time NYC didn’t drop below 35° between Christmas and New Years. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 25 to Jan 1 Missing Count 1 2024-01-01 35 0 2 2022-01-01 34 0 - 2016-01-01 34 0 - 1980-01-01 34 0 3 2007-01-01 33 0 - 1941-01-01 33 0 - 1908-01-01 33 0
  25. bluewave
    If that tucked track verifies, then the CMC will be a degree or two warmer. It’s currently running 2° too cold for NYC this morning.
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