bluewave
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Everything posted by bluewave
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Very Niña-like steep -PNA drop to start October as the models get closer. Would match the record warm pool and forcing near Japan. The RMM charts aren’t capturing it since the MJO is displaced further north of the equator closer to the warmest SSTs in the WPAC to the north of the Maritime Continent. So at least the first week looks like a strong coupled -PDO pattern. Just don’t want to see too many -PNA episodes like this during the winter.
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The CFS is the only model that I can find that puts out an OHC forecast. Not that it’s such a great model by any stretch, but it doesn’t look like it makes it back to the peak of 1.40 we saw in June. Wonder what the max possible Nino 3.4 SST is should it level off only around 1.00 into October?
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Winter blocking over the Western North American domain peaked in 13-14 and 14-15. Since then it has migrated to the warm season. The warm season blocks were actually more impressive than the cold season ones were. We need to shift the extreme blocks further west back to the cold season. It may be the only way to see a cold winter in the Northeast after the last 8 warm ones.
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That was the strongest JF block on record for combined -EPO+PNA 500 mb heights.
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Looks like a head-and-shoulders pattern in the stock market. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/identifying-head-and-shoulders-patterns-stock-charts
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We can’t get cooler weather anymore these days without some type of extreme of blocking. The EPS has been correcting stronger with the block to our north. So high temperature forecasts have been coming down with so much easterly flow. New run Old run
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Would be nice if we could continue this blocking into the winter. No real cool air available in North America with the much warmer background global temperatures and hostile +EPO on the Pacific side. So the trough has been unusually warm this month. Recent drop in departures since the 15th has mostly been due to clouds and onshore flow limiting highs.
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It’s been really warm here this month. There are a number of stations in New England that are still close to +5. The upper 70s dew points earlier this month we’re off the charts for this part of the country.
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That’s a good point. While we usually see divergence in the 11-15 day forecasts, the GEPS and GEFS are going -PNA. This is in contrast to the +PNA EPS. So it appears that the GEFS and GEPS are going with the -PDO and record warm pool east of Japan. While the EPS is trying to put its eggs more the El Niño basket. It will be interesting to see how this tug of war between competing influences plays out.
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The CFS won the September forecast at 1.66 and the Euro and AUS were too warm at 1.89 and 1.98. 3.4 has been stuck between 1.6 and 1.7 all month as the WWBs were a no show this month.
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This could be the first time we didn’t get the usual pressure rise along the equator over Indonesia. So the eqsoi isn’t showing the same response. This is why we didn’t get the usual El Niño strong WWBs. The models didn’t do a good job with this since several like the Euro and Australian had Nino 3.4 averaging close +2.0 for September.
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Hard to believe that the last major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas was way back in 1996. All tropical storms or lower end hurricanes. But flooding has been their biggest issue with multiple record breaking events such as Florence. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html
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Just give me one to two solid months this winter with a raging STJ and some blocking. This new paper is another conformation of the semi-permanent La Niña background state due to the warming WPAC. It is similar to the recent papers showing the stronger and more persistent MJO 4-6 phases. So I am hoping for a decent El Niño pattern before we flip again back to La Niña.
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The summer JJA 500 mb pattern most closely resembled the weaker MEI El Niño composite. Nothing like the one that proceeded the strongest El Niños. So the higher ACE and 500mb pattern both conformed with the weaker MEI. But the warmer climate allowed for parts of the U.S. to have one of their warmest summers on record. So the past cooling influence during developing El Niño summers was muted. Also a smaller Aleutian Low than both El Niño composites. JJA 2023 pattern -EPO+PNA record south based -AO Weaker MEI composite -EPO+PNA-AO Strong MEI summer composite weak blocking and strong Aleutian Low
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September was actually a mixed bag of competing or overlapping El Niño and La Niña influences. The strong ridge south of the Aleutians and trough over Alaska was classic La Niña. But the ridge north of the GL and NE was more Nino-like. September 2023 La Niña September with strong +SOI September El Niño composite
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Who said anything about the entire month of October based on a 5 day snapshot for the start of the month? Just pointing out that the guidance has mixed influences to start the month. It could also be the seasonal shift from September to October early on. In any event, those two composites I posted for October will give us a real time updates as to which influences are at play. We would prefer to see the El Niño really taking charge with models correcting stronger with the -EPO +PNA October composite. But more of a ridge north of Great Lakes and weaker Aleutian low to the SW of the island chain would signal that the El Niño is still struggling to couple.
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Looks like a hybrid Nino-Niña pattern to start October. We get the Niña-like Aleutians ridge and downstream ridge north of the Great Lakes. Then the El Niño influence of the height rises over NW Canada. But the typical Nino-like Aleutian Low is pretty much absent through the start of the month. So this goes to a tug of war pattern between competing influences. EPS forecast La Niña October +SOI composite El Niño October composite
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The wet foliage this month at the ASOS is really keeping those departures artificially low. Stations will need to hold +1.8 to +2.0 to qualify for a top 10 warmest. So relatively small departures are all that’s needed with the jump in the 91-20 climate normals. EWR…+3.9 LGA….+2.3 NYC….+2.0 JFK…..+2.9 HPN…..+3.4 BDR……+2.2 HVN…..+5.2 ISP……..+3.3 PHL…….+3.3 POU…….+3.1
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Report: Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans
bluewave replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
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Those SSTs are just ridiculous. Like something we see during a strong -PDO. But we usually don’t get the warm extension to the Baja like we have now. So it’s driving the -PDO to the lowest level of -2.35 ever for a an El Niño with 3.4 over 1.5 in September. I think this is why the Euro and CFS are trying to really crank the Niña-like Aleutian Ridge in December. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/
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The 2nd week was pretty warm also with mid 80s several days to low 90s one day. We didn’t get our first slightly cooler departure day until the 15th.
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They called it a warming hole as there were some localized areas that had less warming or close to no trend over a specified period than if you averaged out the whole region. These pop up from time to time on a very localized global basis. The corn belt in the summer is another famous one and the blue blob south of Greenland.
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The rate of warming in the SE during the winter is roughly half that of the Northeast. So you were able to sneak a top 10 coldest coldest as recently as 09-10. The Northeast has warmed too much to challenge a top 10 coldest. Been a bunch of papers written on the SE winter warming hole which shifts to the corn belt during the summer.
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First, I have no use for politics as it currently exists in this polarized world. Second, would never suggest a policy measure or correction which would put more financial pressure on people in this age of high inflation. So my ideas and the studies I present are presented in order to refine our forecast capability. Not because I want to see some political solution to climate change. None probably exist anyway at the current time without some giant leap in the energy generating technology necessary to drive and sustain our planet. So we are essentially stuck with the carbon based economy for the time being. My comment on the general cold bias of models and seasonal forecasts wasn’t meant to be a jab at you. It was in response to what you said to me. I actually have a lot of respect for anyone willing to stick there neck out and make a detailed well though out seasonal forecast.
