bluewave

Monday was one of the warmest November days that our area has experienced. It was the first 80° reading in November at Islip. The monthly maxes were tied at JFK and BDR. It was only the 2nd 80° in November at JFK. This sets us up for a near record weekly temperature drop of 50° by early next Monday as lows approach 32°. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 80 23 2 1990 78 0 3 1993 77 0 - 1982 77 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 85 0 2 2022 81 23 - 2003 81 0 - 1974 81 0 3 1993 80 0 - 1982 80 0 - 1948 80 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 80 23 - 1950 80 1 2 1993 77 0 - 1982 77 0 - 1975 77 0 3 1974 76 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 79 23 2 1993 78 0 - 1975 78 0 3 1950 77 0 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=162&month=nov&dir=cool&how=exact&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Islip just tied the all-time November high of 78°. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 78 0 2 1993 77 0 - 1982 77 0 3 2020 76 0 - 1968 76 0 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 1127 AM EST MON NOV 07 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 78 WAS SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 74 SET IN 2020.

Newark closing in on 80°. Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 79 50 36 W16G25 30.16F

Stronger SE Ridge on Euro and CMC so Nicole tracks further west with heavier rains across the area. But there is an intensity difference between the two models. The Euro has less wind and the CMC more. A deeper low pressure will pull in more cold behind it like the CMC has. The OP Euro may be too weak since the Euro control is stronger with higher winds. Euro control stronger like CMC

The Euro brings the tropical system into Florida later in the week. We get a PRE with heavy overrunning rains along the stalled front. Best winds this run are out toward Cape Cod. But that could change in time. First interior Northeast snow of the season possible beyond day 10 with record -EPO.

The canopy is finally starting to thin out with the falling leaves at the NYC ASOS. So they were able to get enough sun to reach the sensor for a record high. It’s the first record high there since the trees were bare in early March. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0213 AM EST TUE MAR 08 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 74 WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 74 SET IN 1946.

Several spots could see their first freeze of the season behind the storm.

The last time that that Florida had a hurricane cross from the east in November was the Yankee Hurricane of 1935. This kind of track in November is very rare. So it it will be interesting to see how the trough interaction next weekend works out for our area. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Yankee_hurricane

Tropical systems near Puerto Rico aren’t supposed to track westward back to Florida in November. What used to be November climo favored northeasterly tracks from that location. But we have a record breaking 1045 mb high this week blocking the typical recurve OTS.

Now the Euro is coming around to the idea of a tropical system phasing with a disturbance crossing the Great Lakes next weekend. So the possibility of high winds and heavy rain for our area. Probably need several more days to refine the exact track.

Looks like the 79° at Newark was the 4th warmest for November. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 85 0 2 2003 81 0 - 1974 81 0 3 1993 80 0 - 1982 80 0 - 1948 80 0 4 1994 79 0 - 1990 79 0 2022 79 0

Record highs from Newark to Islip.

Newark moves into 5th place for the most November 70° days with a high of 73° today. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2020 7 0 - 1975 7 0 2 1994 6 0 - 1990 6 0 - 1953 6 0 - 1931 6 0 3 2015 5 0 - 2001 5 0 - 1982 5 0 - 1938 5 0 4 2005 4 0 - 1979 4 0 - 1973 4 0 5 2011 3 0 - 1974 3 0 - 1964 3 0 - 1956 3 0 - 1950 3 0 - 1949 3 0 - 1948 3 0 - 1945 3 0 - 1935 3 0 2022 3 27

Record warmth possible by this weekend. The models have a record breaking 588 dm ridge building over the area. Guidance sometimes shows too much onshore flow for Newark. So if this is the case again, then Newark could approach the 77° and 80° record highs. This warmth may come close to early November 2020 records. 11/5 77 in 1959 76 in 1994. 75 in 1961+ 11/6 80 in 1948 77 in 1959 75 in 2015 11/7 78 in 1938 77 in 2020 71 in 2015+ 11/8 77 in 2020 76 in 1975 75 in 1945 11/9 77 in 2020 75 in 1975 74 in 2021 11/10 76 in 2020 73 in 1999 73 in 1985+ More SW flow than forecast could allow Newark to beat guidance.

Warmer October in New England and cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. So the dividing line between warmer and cooler is right around NYC. Another big ridge over the record warm pool east of New England. This is the 2nd warmest October in Caribou, Maine so far. ISP….+0.7 FRG…+0.7 HPN….+0.3 JFK…..-0.2 NYC…..-1.3 LGA……-1.4 EWR…..-1.9 Time Series Summary for CARIBOU WFO, ME - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 51.4 0 2 2022 50.1 3 3 2021 49.9 0 4 1947 48.8 0 5 1968 48.4 0 6 1995 47.8 0 7 2007 47.6 0 8 1963 47.5 0 9 1970 47.4 0 10 2014 47.3 0

Warmer October to the north and east of NYC and cooler south and west. Continuation of this theme for the rest of the month. Ridge set up again over the NW Atlantic record warm pool. This allowed for two record warm low minimums in a row at ISP. ISP….+0.5 FRG…+0.5 HPN….+0.2 JFK….-0.5 NYC….-1.4 LGA…..-1.5 EWR…..-2.1 Islip Area, NYPeriod of record: 1963-09-05 through 2022-10-26 Highest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/25 65 in 2022 59 in 1975 59 in 1971 10/26 60 in 2022 60 in 2010 59 in 2003

Yes. It brings Farmingdale to -0.1 for October. So much warmer conditions this month at the coast. A reversal from the summer when NJ had the warmer departures. Almanac for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY October 25, 2022 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 78 61 78 in 2022 51 in 2018 Min Temperature 64 45 64 in 2022 32 in 2003 Avg Temperature 71.0 52.8 71.0 in 2022 45.0 in 2018

Just missed the record high at Islip at 75°. This late month warmth brings the departure up to 0.0. So the record SST warmth east of New England is keeping coastal sections warmer this month. 10/25 76 in 2001 76 in 1963 75 in 2022

Warmer winters have become the norm since the super El Niño in 15-16. Overall La Niña background state with a strong WAR and SE ridge. Intervals of Atlantic and Pacific blocking were more dominant in the snowier seasons.

The cooler October transitioning to a warmer November is more of a feature that we see with El Niños. So the record warmth in the North Pacific is creating more of an El Niño type influence. Probably another winter with competing influences rather than a strict ENSO interpretation.

The warmest departures will go to our north this week and are set maintain the near record warmth up near Caribou, Maine. This was their 3rd warmest first 3 weeks of October for high temperatures. It’s really impressive since the average high there was only a little warmer than Newark. Goes to show how strong that record warm pool is east of New England. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 23 Missing Count 1 1947-10-23 62.4 0 2 2017-10-23 62.2 0 3 2022-10-23 61.7 0 4 2021-10-23 61.2 0 5 2016-10-23 61.1 0

More onshore flow when the record ridge axis extends east of New England like we are getting again this weekend.

General warm up as the PNA becomes more negative going forward. Looks like the warm spots may sneak in a few 70° days. But the highest departures should miss to our north. So areas especially further west may be able to hold the cold departures for the month. EWR….-4.3 NYC…..-3.1 HPN……-1.3 JFK…….-2.1 LGA…..-3.0 ISP…….-1.0

41° here in SW Suffolk with some frost only on the roofs.

Heading into our next cool down behind the cold front. Back to the 30s tonight for the usual colder spots. Then we warm up near 70° for the warmer spots over the weekend into next week.