bluewave

Not thinking this WWB is going to move the needle much toward super El Niño status since it was much weaker than the ones during this time of year back in 2015, 1997, and 1982.

These are the first freeze dates across the entire area for the last 10 years so nobody gets left out. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-01 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 215 Mean 03-29 11-16 232 Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-09 (2016) 243 2022 03-30 (2022) 29 11-19 (2022) 31 233 2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233 2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243 2019 03-18 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 234 2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242 2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215 2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233 Frost/Freeze Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-24 (2017) 10-19 (2015) 196 Mean 04-05 11-09 218 Maximum 04-17 (2020) 11-28 (2016) 234 2022 03-30 (2022) 29 11-18 (2022) 32 232 2021 04-03 (2021) 30 11-24 (2021) 32 234 2020 04-17 (2020) 32 10-31 (2020) 32 196 2019 04-01 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 220 2018 04-11 (2018) 32 11-10 (2018) 32 212 2017 03-24 (2017) 31 11-10 (2017) 25 230 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 11-28 (2016) 32 231 2015 03-29 (2015) 25 10-19 (2015) 31 203 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-08 (2014) 32 205 2013 04-04 (2013) 31 11-04 (2013) 32 213 Frost/Freeze Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 04-02 (2019) 10-18 (2015) 173 Mean 04-16 10-27 194 Maximum 05-10 (2020) 11-11 (2017) 215 2022 04-18 (2022) 29 10-30 (2022) 30 194 2021 04-03 (2021) 28 11-04 (2021) 29 214 2020 05-10 (2020) 31 10-31 (2020) 28 173 2019 04-02 (2019) 27 11-02 (2019) 30 213 2018 04-11 (2018) 26 10-19 (2018) 32 190 2017 04-09 (2017) 31 11-11 (2017) 20 215 2016 04-10 (2016) 29 10-26 (2016) 30 198 2015 04-25 (2015) 30 10-18 (2015) 28 175 2014 04-21 (2014) 30 10-20 (2014) 31 181 2013 04-22 (2013) 32 10-25 (2013) 30 185 Frost/Freeze Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 04-17 (2016) 09-21 (2020) 122 Mean 05-01 10-14 164 Maximum 05-21 (2020) 11-03 (2021) 192 2022 05-01 (2022) 32 10-09 (2022) 31 160 2021 04-24 (2021) 31 11-03 (2021) 29 192 2020 05-21 (2020) 32 09-21 (2020) 31 122 2019 04-29 (2019) 28 10-05 (2019) 30 158 2018 05-01 (2018) 32 10-18 (2018) 31 169 2017 05-04 (2017) 32 10-17 (2017) 30 165 2016 04-17 (2016) 31 - - - 2015 04-26 (2015) 28 10-17 (2015) 27 173 2014 04-25 (2014) 30 10-20 (2014) 32 177 2013 05-14 (2013) 29 10-21 (2013) 32 159 Frost/Freeze Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 04-23 (2021) 10-05 (2019) 153 Mean 05-03 10-15 165 Maximum 05-21 (2020) 11-03 (2021) 193 2022 05-01 (2022) 30 10-08 (2022) 32 159 2021 04-23 (2021) 27 11-03 (2021) 27 193 2020 05-21 (2020) 31 - - - 2019 04-29 (2019) 30 10-05 (2019) 30 158 2018 04-24 (2018) 30 - - - 2017 05-11 (2017) 32 10-17 (2017) 31 158 2016 05-10 (2016) 32 10-11 (2016) 30 153 2015 04-26 (2015) 29 10-17 (2015) 29 173 2014 04-28 (2014) 31 10-12 (2014) 32 166 2013 05-14 (2013) 31 10-23 (2013) 30 161 Frost/Freeze Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-30 (2017) 10-18 (2015) 173 Mean 04-16 11-03 200 Maximum 05-09 (2020) 11-14 (2022) 2022 04-18 (2022) 32 11-14 (2022) 30 209 2021 04-03 (2021) 28 11-04 (2021) 32 214 2020 05-09 (2020) 32 10-30 (2020) 32 173 2019 04-29 (2019) 32 11-02 (2019) 32 186 2018 04-11 (2018) 28 10-26 (2018) 32 197 2017 03-30 (2017) 29 11-10 (2017) 23 224 2016 04-13 (2016) 31 11-12 (2016) 31 212 2015 04-12 (2015) 32 10-18 (2015) 29 188 2014 04-18 (2014) 31 11-08 (2014) 30 203 2013 04-21 (2013) 32 11-04 (2013) 28 196 Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-01 (2020) 11-08 (2019) 215 Mean 03-27 11-27 245 Maximum 04-16 (2014) 01-04 (2016) 281 2022 03-30 (2022) 30 11-19 (2022) 32 233 2021 04-02 (2021) 29 12-19 (2021) 31 260 2020 03-01 (2020) 26 12-08 (2020) 32 281 2019 03-13 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 31 239 2018 04-02 (2018) 32 11-15 (2018) 30 226 2017 03-23 (2017) 26 11-10 (2017) 27 231 2016 04-06 (2016) 32 12-09 (2016) 32 246 2015 03-29 (2015) 27 01-04 (2016) 15 280 2014 04-16 (2014) 32 11-18 (2014) 24 215 2013 03-22 (2013) 30 11-12 (2013) 32 234 Frost/Freeze Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-16 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 212 Mean 04-02 11-16 227 Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-09 (2016) 242 2022 03-30 (2022) 27 11-19 (2022) 32 233 2021 04-03 (2021) 31 11-23 (2021) 32 233 2020 03-16 (2020) 32 10-31 (2020) 32 228 2019 04-02 (2019) 31 11-08 (2019) 29 219 2018 04-11 (2018) 31 11-12 (2018) 30 214 2017 03-24 (2017) 32 11-10 (2017) 25 230 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 31 242 2015 03-29 (2015) 27 11-24 (2015) 31 239 2014 04-16 (2014) 32 11-15 (2014) 30 212 2013 04-04 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 32 221 Frost/Freeze Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-16 (2020) 10-26 (2013) 204 Mean 04-02 11-11 222 Maximum 04-18 (2014) 11-23 (2015) 234 2022 03-30 (2022) 28 11-15 (2022) 32 229 2021 04-03 (2021) 30 11-17 (2021) 31 227 2020 03-16 (2020) 32 10-31 (2020) 32 228 2019 04-02 (2019) 27 11-08 (2019) 29 219 2018 04-11 (2018) 30 11-11 (2018) 32 213 2017 03-24 (2017) 27 11-10 (2017) 26 230 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-21 (2016) 32 224 2015 04-02 (2015) 29 11-23 (2015) 32 234 2014 04-18 (2014) 32 11-15 (2014) 29 210 2013 04-04 (2013) 29 10-26 (2013) 31 204 Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-30 (2022) 10-19 (2015) 176 Mean 04-09 11-03 207 Maximum 04-25 (2015) 11-15 (2022) 229 2022 03-30 (2022) 25 11-15 (2022) 29 229 2021 04-04 (2021) 32 11-06 (2021) 31 215 2020 04-19 (2020) 31 10-31 (2020) 29 194 2019 04-02 (2019) 26 11-04 (2019) 32 215 2018 04-11 (2018) 26 10-22 (2018) 32 193 2017 03-30 (2017) 32 11-10 (2017) 26 224 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217 2015 04-25 (2015) 32 10-19 (2015) 29 176 2014 04-16 (2014) 32 11-08 (2014) 31 205 2013 04-07 (2013) 31 10-26 (2013) 32 201 Frost/Freeze Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-24 (2017) 10-19 (2015) 189 Mean 04-06 11-06 213 Maximum 04-23 (2020) 11-17 (2021) 230 2022 03-30 (2022) 27 11-15 (2022) 31 229 2021 04-03 (2021) 28 11-17 (2021) 29 227 2020 04-23 (2020) 32 10-30 (2020) 32 189 2019 04-02 (2019) 29 11-08 (2019) 29 219 2018 04-11 (2018) 26 11-12 (2018) 30 214 2017 03-24 (2017) 29 11-10 (2017) 24 230 2016 04-13 (2016) 31 11-01 (2016) 32 201 2015 04-02 (2015) 29 10-19 (2015) 30 199 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-08 (2014) 31 205 2013 04-04 (2013) 29 11-04 (2013) 32 213 Frost/Freeze Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 04-02 (2019) 10-18 (2015) 187 Mean 04-11 11-01 204 Maximum 04-25 (2020) 11-15 (2014) 222 2022 04-05 (2022) 31 11-14 (2022) 29 222 2021 04-04 (2021) 29 11-06 (2021) 31 215 2020 04-25 (2020) 32 10-30 (2020) 30 187 2019 04-02 (2019) 24 11-04 (2019) 32 215 2018 04-12 (2018) 30 10-19 (2018) 31 189 2017 04-09 (2017) 29 11-09 (2017) 30 213 2016 04-13 (2016) 30 11-01 (2016) 31 201 2015 04-13 (2015) 31 10-18 (2015) 29 187 2014 04-21 (2014) 30 11-15 (2014) 25 207 2013 04-07 (2013) 30 10-25 (2013) 31 200

Yeah, the better radiational cooling at night makes it cooler here relative to my old place back on Long Island. But it still has been the 4th warmest October to date. I guess the good news is that even averaging around 60° for October, it will still give you colder feeling mornings. Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 23 Missing Count 1 2021-10-23 63.0 0 2 2007-10-23 62.8 0 3 2017-10-23 61.9 0 4 2023-10-23 60.4 0 5 2020-10-23 60.0 0 - 1949-10-23 60.0 0

I am very close to New Haven Tweed airport. So my thermometer reads very close to what the ASOS shows. The airport is actually in a lower dip from some small hills to the west. So I made it down to 41° while HVN was 40°. Not bad for a home set up vs expensive ASOS. It’s interesting how quickly the temperatures drop here once the sun goes down especially on good radiational cooling nights. I like to use the Bishops Orchard Wunderground site in Guilford for readings that are a little more inland from me. They were 38° this morning. They also make the best apple pies I have ever had if you are in the area.

I wanted to include the historic SSTs east of Japan since the subtropical Pacific during the summer can have a large influence on the circulation patterns across the entire basin. So to encompass the entirety of the Western Pacific, I created a custom SST index from the equator to 40N. This tied in the important section east of Japan which helped to drive the deep -PDO circulation and worked in opposition to the developing El Niño in August and September. Wider Western Pacific basin SSTs north of Equator in Northern Hemispheric summer during developing El Niño years https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=40&lat2=0&lon1=110&lon2=180&iseas=1&mon1=7&mon2=8&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries 2023…27.81 2015….27.38 2014….27.64 2009….27.44 2006….27.41 2004….27.24 2002….27.25 1997…..27.00 1994….27.37 1991…..27.20

Yeah, I finally moved outside the heat island influence and dropped to 41° for my coldest of the season so far.

Big temperature swings coming up. Near record 80° heat by the weekend. Then colder weather to start November with the first mid 30s of season in NYC. But the average lows are in the low 40s by that time so not too cold by historical standards. It will feel colder though compared to 80°.

The Western Pacific was the warmest on record for a developing El Niño in August and September. This resulted in lower pressures than usual. The lack of a strong pressure gradient between east and west resulted in some of the weakest WWBs for a developing El Niño. So the record WPAC warm pool was still in a more Nina-like mode. It makes sense that the MEI was much lower than the ONI.

I rode my bike on the LB boardwalk during the 100° and 75° dew point in July 1999. While I was much younger back then, I still got the pins and needles sensation from that 113 heat index. I actually enjoyed the 0° and 50 mph gusts on the boardwalk better in January 1985.Probably the best display of Arctic seasmoke I ever saw back in Long Beach with embedded steamnadoes. The beauty of the Long Beach boardwalk is that there is always somebody up there no matter how extreme the weather. There were people on the boardwalk 5 minutes before sections collapsed during Sandy. The Long Beach crew were some of the most adventurous people that I ever met.

Even though our rate of summer warming has been slower than the fall and winter, it still has come with a steep increase in the dew points. We are just lucky we haven’t had a summer version yet of December 2015. I believe we would need an extreme drought here to ever have a summer month approach +10. Portions of the Southern Plains approached +10 in July 2011.

Only to the extent that you can remain in the air conditioning and spend less time outside. Extreme heatwaves in the summer can be dangerous especially to the elderly.

The upper ocean heat content pattern along with the weaker WWBs never matched previous super El Niño years. So the more aggressive models were just showing excessive momentum.

The Euro October monthly forecast error continues to grow with the daily Nino 3.4 back down below +1.6.

I guess we are fortunate that the summer temperatures aren’t warming as quickly as the fall and winter. It’s easier to adapt to a warmer fall and winter than summer. So I think the average person likes the milder falls and winters. It’s part of the reason that most of the migration in this country is away from colder climates to warmer ones. Northeast temperature increases since 1981 per decade SEP…+1.0° per Decade OCT…+0.9 NOV…+0.2 DEC…+1.0 JAN…+1.2 FEB….+0.3 MAR…+0.4 APR….+0.3 MAY….+0.4 JUN….+0.3 JUL….+0.6 AUG….+0.6

Out of phase PDO since the spring with some of the weakest developing El Niño WWBs on record. To understand the diversity of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under the background of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) during recent decades, characteristics of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) during positive and negative phases of the PDO were analyzed. It is shown that, during the ENSO developing period, the El Niño evolution may be affected by stronger or more frequent WWBs in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase. The sustained effects of atmospheric dynamics on the equatorial ocean can be indicated by the accumulated WWB strength, which contains most WWB characteristics, including the accumulated days, occurrence frequency, strength, and spatial range of WWBs. The synoptic/climate systems that are directly related to WWBs show a wider spatial distribution in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase. … … … …

Because the more extreme ones usually had a stronger 500 mb vortex near the Northeast than in recent years.

This far south blocking hasn’t happened before with the -AO magnitudes that I mentioned. But we did have much weaker -AOs in the past that did build this far south. While the blocking has been the strongest on record in Canada from May to October, it hasn’t allowed for much cooler air in North America. Like the 500mb heights expanding so much that there was no cool air available for the troughs. I am hoping that we can get some of these decent -AO +PNA intervals during the winter to give us a better snowfall outcome than last winter even if there isn’t much cold air available for the troughs to work with.

We were talking specifically about the Northeast so that’s why I zoomed in. Most people don’t realize how unusual last winter was. NYC had the lowest snowfall ever for any single winter month with an -AO reading lower than -2.5 by a wide margin. Plus it was the warmest winter out of the bunch by and equally wide margin. 1983 and 1996 were nowhere near as far south with the blocking as recent years. Sure we are dealing with small sample sizes since we are only several years into a new decade. But what we have been seeing with heights building into the Northeast is something new with -AO s of these magnitudes so far. Plus you agreed with me with your AMO composite so not sure what our differences are. NYC snowfall with monthly DJF -AO reading dipping below -2.5 and average temperature 22-23…2.3”….41.0° 10-11…61.9….32.8° 09-10…51.4….33.8° 84-85…24.1….36.4° 77-78….50.7….30.3° 76-77….24.5….28.4° 68-69…30.2….32.9° 65-66…21.4…..35.9° 62-63….16.3….29.9°

You said that not me. All I stated was that several models have high temperatures around 80° on the warmest days this week. Plus you have to remember long range official forecasts are more conservative since they don’t like to make big jumps from run to run. They like to be more gradual in increasing their high temperatures the closer we get. If there were any record lows in the 20s this week for around NYC I would be posting that also. So the echo chamber you mention is the actual pattern not that people are pointing it out.

I shifted the map closer to the Northeast so we could see the finer details. While the 2020s are still young, our strong -AO blocking Decembers of 2022 and 2020 were much further south than their counterparts from previous decades. December 2022 was the furthest south block on record with a monthly -AO value lower than-1.5 and -PNA for the month. Same goes for December 2020 which was furthest south based for a +PNA. We could expand to compare January 2021 which had an -AO block lower than -1.5 which was further south based than previous decades. We could also include other months of the year but not enough space in this post to compare. 2020s December -AO -PNA Earlier -AO -PNA December 2020 -AO +PNA Earlier -AO +PNA

I think part of the issue we see on wx twitter is the tendency for people to give long range ENSO models the same weight as a short term model forecast. I have been pointing out since last spring the warm bias these ENSO forecasts have been exhibiting for years. It’s OK to question a models output which makes for a much better forecast. Plus this warm bias has become more evident in the recent era of the seemingly perma-Niña background state.

The bottom line is that 70° Septembers and 60° Octobers have become more common. Same goes for 50° Novembers and 40° Decembers. In the old days we had the coldest Septembers which were closer to 60° and Octobers which were near 50°. The most extreme version of this was the 50° December 2015 which would still rank near the warmest on record for November. So our monthly temperatures continue to shift closer to places like Norfolk and DC. The good news for us is that we can adapt to a climate closer to Virginia.

So why are you ignoring the posts from the CPC stating that there is only a 30% chance of a super El Niño due to the much lower upper ocean heat anomalies?

It’s all about proportionality. Sure it feels chilly out there this morning. But the cold is nowhere near a record. Highs in the low 80s later this week is near the record. We would need lows in the 20s to set a record. That’s what people are saying. Several of our recent winters since 15-16 were near the warmest on record. But even a winter averaging around or over 40° or warmer feels chilly outside and you will still need a jacket on most days. Newark Area, NJVersion: 18.2 (created 2023-09-05)Period of record: 1893 through 2022DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F) 10/25 31 in 1907 31 in 1903 33 in 1939+ 10/26 31 in 1952 31 in 1936 31 in 1933+ 10/27 27 in 1936 29 in 1976 29 in 1907 10/28 25 in 1936 27 in 1904 29 in 1976 10/29 29 in 1904 30 in 1965 30 in 1940 10/30 31 in 1952 31 in 1910 31 in 1902 10/31 27 in 1904 29 in 1975 30 in 1910+ Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1893-01-01 through 2023-10-22DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F) 10/25 79 in 2001 79 in 1963 78 in 2021 10/26 79 in 1964 79 in 1963 78 in 1989+ 10/27 81 in 1963 80 in 1947 78 in 1989 10/28 82 in 1984 81 in 1919 78 in 1989+ 10/29 78 in 1971 78 in 1946 76 in 1989 10/30 82 in 1946 80 in 1961 80 in 1950 10/31 82 in 1946 79 in 1950 77 in 1945