bluewave

Yeah, we can see how serious the flash flooding was in Death Valley last summer when they had their historic rainfall which was lower than is being projected with Hillary.

Several locations in the Northeast have had their wettest summer so far from June into Mid-August.

It will be their version of a Harvey or Florence with a year of rainfall for those areas in just a few days.

Yeah, I am hoping we get some piece of the summer to winter blocking carryover even if we have warmed quite a bit from several of the past years. A warmer version could still produce better snowfall than last winter. Just cold enough has worked for us with a raging STJ and even a small amount of blocking. Many would accept another mild winter if we can get a decent snowstorm or two.

February 2015 was probably the biggest fluke since 2000. Some of the papers I read pinned the 13-14 and 14-15 mega NE PAC Ridge on the warmer waters near 15N in the WPAC. It’s interesting that the forcing emanating from just 15 degrees further south along the equator in the WPAC creates such a warmer response for us with the frequent MJO 4-6 transits over the last 8 winters.

Close to normal for the much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. But warmer than average for the previous 30 year normals. So NOAA and the NCDC are inadvertently doing their part to normalize the warmer climate like the public does. Very difficult to use 30 year normals in such a rapidly warming climate. They worked better when the climate was more stable.

Its possible that there could be a period of Nina-like forcing like we saw during the super El Niño back in December 2015. The WPAC has been doing its own thing in recent years. It was the first strong MJO 4-6 in a super El Niño.

It’s better to dense rank weather statistics since the actual ranking is based on temperature and not the year. This is how the NWS NY out in Upton ranks their top temperature and precipitation records. https://www.sqlservertutorial.net/sql-server-window-functions/sql-server-dense_rank-function/

This is a great place for weather stats. But much of the world doesn’t pay attention to the details like we do here. So people rapidly normalize a changing climate and miss the perspective and context of the changes. Plus the migration patterns in the US are toward warmer climates. So many are fine with mild and snowless winters and would be happier if they lived year round in places like Florida.

The subsurface is a bit perplexing compared to years that went super. While the OISST Nino 3 is near +2 and 3.4 is getting closer to +1.5, the subsurface is much less impressive than super El Niño summers at this point. So I think it’s going to be more difficult to predict the specifics this year compared to other strong to super years. While we have the +IOD developing, it’s only showing a relatively small region of cooling SW of Indonesia. The WPAC in general is much warmer than most very strong El Niño years. So the low skill seasonal models may even be if less use this year than other years.

We normalize the record warmth fairly quickly. So when we have temperatures cooler than those years, it feels cooler relative to the warmer years. It’s one of the reasons that climate change doesn’t interest as many people compared to other issues. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190225170252.htm Tweets tell scientists how quickly we normalize unusual weather Study: 'Remarkable' weather becomes normal within a few years Date: February 25, 2019 Source: University of California - Davis

The planet has warmed so much since those top 10 coolest El Niño onset summers of days past. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 17 Missing Count 1 1964-08-17 68.6 0 2 1965-08-17 68.8 0 3 1992-08-17 69.0 0 4 1979-08-17 69.3 0 - 1972-08-17 69.3 0 5 2009-08-17 69.5 0 6 1982-08-17 69.6 0 - 1968-08-17 69.6 0 7 1978-08-17 69.8 0 8 1996-08-17 69.9 0 9 2004-08-17 70.0 0 10 1985-08-17 70.2 0

Einstein was right. It’s all relative. . A 14th warmest summer average temperature at Islip so far feels much cooler than all the top 5 warm recent years. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 17 Missing Count 1 2010-08-17 75.1 0 - 1999-08-17 75.1 0 3 2020-08-17 74.7 0 4 2011-08-17 74.3 0 5 2022-08-17 74.1 0 - 2019-08-17 74.1 0 - 2016-08-17 74.1 0 6 1994-08-17 73.6 0 7 2013-08-17 73.5 0 - 2012-08-17 73.5 0 - 2008-08-17 73.5 0 8 2018-08-17 73.4 0 9 2005-08-17 73.3 0 - 1988-08-17 73.3 0 10 2006-08-17 73.2 0 - 1991-08-17 73.2 0 - 1966-08-17 73.2 0 11 2021-08-17 73.1 0 12 2002-08-17 73.0 0 - 1995-08-17 73.0 0 13 2015-08-17 72.8 0 - 2014-08-17 72.8 0 - 1980-08-17 72.8 0 14 2023-08-17 72.7 0

Much warmer west and cooler east than at this point in 1997. That’s why the forcing has been much further west this summer. The present Nino 4 is near record levels of warmth for this time of year. So while the highest departures are in 1+2 and 3, Nino 4 is warmer for actual SSTs. The much cooler subsurface than in 1997 suggests that 1+2 and 3 will peak earlier this year than 97-98 did. The main question is whether we can get a fall (SON) peak instead of winter for 1+2 and 3 which would influence the all important winter forcing location. 97-98 featured a 1+2 peak in NDJ.

On par with 2017 and 2014 for Long Island but well above a really cool summer like 2009. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 17 Missing Count 2023-08-17 72.7 0 2022-08-17 74.1 0 2021-08-17 73.1 0 2020-08-17 74.7 0 2019-08-17 74.1 0 2018-08-17 73.4 0 2017-08-17 72.3 0 2016-08-17 74.1 0 2015-08-17 72.8 0 2014-08-17 72.8 0 2013-08-17 73.5 0 2012-08-17 73.5 0 2011-08-17 74.3 0 2010-08-17 75.1 0 2009-08-17 69.5 0

Yeah, how posters evaluate what constitutes a hot summer or good winter is very subjective. Some people only consider a high number of 90s or several 100° days hot like we had last summer. Even though the record dewpoints made it feel like we had a higher number of 90° days. Plus June and August didn’t have much in the way of heat compared to some recent years. Winter ratings can be even more tricky. I actually enjoyed the 15-16 winter more than the 14-15. Even though we averaged over 40° with a +13 December, the January record snowstorm jackpot near 30” in NYC Metro was more impressive to me. It made up for the model error with the January 2015 event going further east. Plus that big event was more memorable than several smaller to moderate events the previous winter. The NYC below 0° fans finally got their due on Valentine’s Day. Even with the 2nd coldest February the year before, the NYC temperature couldn’t fall below 0° like it did during the much warmer 15-16 winter.

The record 600 dm ridge stays to our west.

The 5 year reduction in snowfall on Long Island was more pronounced. The record 5 year period from 13-14 to 17-18 averaged 54.8” at Islip. Big reduction down to only 19.0” since 18-19. The 5 year average snowfall in NYC dropped from 42.3” down to 16.8”. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.9 2.5 7.3 6.9 1.5 T 19.0 2022-2023 0.0 0.4 T 3.0 1.6 0.0 5.0 2021-2022 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.1 3.5 23.2 13.4 13.5 1.0 54.8 2017-2018 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.6 2.2 T 16.8 2022-2023 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 4.1 16.7 12.2 8.2 1.1 42.3 2013-2014 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2014-2015 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2015-2016 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2016-2017 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2017-2018 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9

Regardless of the ENSO state, the Northeast has had 8 warmer than normal winters in a row. We have had various flavors of La Niña with a super El Niño and uncoupled El Niño states. Snowfall was outstanding through 17-18. Then we entered a less snowy period since 18-19. What would work for us with and El Niño would be a raging STJ carving out a SE Trough with blocking. That would mute the influence of the SE Ridge. But we saw in December 2015 how we got the unfavorable MJO 4-6 which pumped the SE Ridge to record levels. We got a great pattern during that January and February when the SE Ridge was muted and we had a strong block across the pole.

The forcing is still a little further west than we typically see with an El Niño in August. This is closer to the actual warmest SSTs. Still to early to tell exactly where the forcing will line up for the winter.

Around half the number of 90° days so far. Data for January 1, 2023 through August 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 ESTELL MANOR COOP 25 HARRISON COOP 25 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 22 Newark Area ThreadEx 22 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 22 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 18 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 15 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 40 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40 Newark Area ThreadEx 40 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 39 CANOE BROOK COOP 37 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 36 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 35 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 34 HARRISON COOP 34 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 34 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 31 ESTELL MANOR COOP 31 Data for January 1, 2023 through August 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 WEST POINT COOP 13 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 12 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 11 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 11 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 11 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 11 PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 9 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 8 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 8 SHRUB OAK COOP 8 DANSVILLE COOP 8 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 8 Albany Area ThreadEx 8 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 8 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 29 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 26 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 26 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 26 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 26 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 26 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 23 Albany Area ThreadEx 22 SHRUB OAK COOP 22 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 22

Yeah, very close to normal temperatures this summer across the region.

Over 2000 MU Cape is pretty good for that early in the morning.