bluewave

It really does since the convection doesn’t care about concepts like RONI .

You know it’s a tough pattern when even the usually snowy long range GFS is giving us much fantasy snow than last December.

It is a big deal if the record SSTs are anywhere in the MJO 4-7 regions with the actual SSTs near +30C.

You have to use the VP anomaly charts for a bigger picture of the forcing going on as it can be underestimated by the RMMs charts. Brad Harvey is using too small a SST zone for it to be relevant to the totality of the WPAC warm pool. One SST region near the MJO 4-7 forcing regions just experienced the highest November SSTs on record.

Pretty much par for the course with the rapidly expanding WPAC warm pool holding convection longer in the warmer MJO phases. So we have been going through some version of this most of this decade in December. Long range guidance always underestimates the intensity of the MJO 4-7 phases. Then it tries to weaken convection too soon and the warmth lingers longer than expected.

Yeah, we take what we can get in the post Boxing Day Blizzard December era. I don’t think we realize how spoiled we got from 2000 to 2010. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 2.6 2.6 2023 0.0 0.0 2022 T T 2021 0.2 0.2 2020 10.5 10.5 2019 2.5 2.5 2018 T T 2017 7.7 7.7 2016 3.2 3.2 2015 T T 2014 1.0 1.0 2013 8.6 8.6 2012 0.4 0.4 2011 0.0 0.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 8.9 8.9 2010 20.1 20.1 2009 12.4 12.4 2008 6.0 6.0 2007 2.9 2.9 2006 0.0 0.0 2005 9.7 9.7 2004 3.0 3.0 2003 19.8 19.8 2002 11.0 11.0 2001 T T 2000 13.4 13.4

I had my first rimed flakes of the season here yesterday.

The biggest issue with these 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15 temperature departure charts is that they run too cold with a super amped up Pacific Jet patterns that we have now. So the actual pattern will probably verify warmer than the models are forecasting. Just look at how none of the models had the 60° readings last weekend but were in the low 50s from further out.

The biggest issue with the wxbell charts is that there is an abrupt color shift around around -8 which draws your eyes toward the colder departures. The +8 has a more subtle color shift which makes it look less warm. Properly designed temperature departure charts which most other vendors and agencies use don’t have this issue around +8 and -8. I am hoping this was just a design flaw on Ryan’s part and not a conscious decision.

First of all, the maps are not garbage. But the scales are different. One uses C and the other F. Plus wxbell uses 1° increments and TT has .0.5.

+2.5 to +5.0 is certainly is in range for stations in our area when you keep seeing these big ridges progressing east in the very fast Pacific flow. Obviously, the later portion of the month will determine whether it’s just closer to +2.5 or some of our warmest sites get closer to +5.0. That’s why I put out a range. Very hard to predict the exact number so early in the month but a forecast range is certainly possible. NYC is sitting at +3.8 and ISP +4.9 with 50s to near 60° expected by this weekend.

I think the much faster northern branch than usual for an El Niño with the more Niña-like MJO phases keeps eroding the PNA ridge from the west. So we get a very mild Pacific flow and more of a neutral PNA. Every time the PNA tries to amplify, the ridge gets pushed into our region. Parts of the PAC NW have had their wettest start to December on record. Most of the other wet starts were La Niña years. So a continuation of the very hostile PAC Jet which has defined recent years.

This is going to be a rinse and repeat forecast right up to the Solstice and Christmas. We get a mix of days closer to normal and +5 to +10 days. So the back and forth between normal and days well above normal should keep us in the +2.5 to 5.0 temperature departure range. All the Arctic air will be on the other side of the globe for the foreseeable future.

My post was based on what has happened in the past. Of course which a borderline super El Niño aspects of the stock composite will work out. Just like features of the La Niña typical composite worked out last winter. But some of the most important details the model didn’t see. I was pointing out several months ago that we could see a rebound in WPAC SSTs leading to more Maritime Continent MJO phases in December. This was completely missed by the Euro seasonal. Sure the warmth in Canada pushing down into the Northern Tier has been expected. But the strength of the Pacific Jet into the PAC NW modulated by the more La Niña-like MJO phases was missed. Notice the PAC NW was supposed to be dry this month and it had all its eggs in the STJ basket and not the the record breaking moisture and soundings in the Pacific NW. Euro seasonal not enough forcing near the Maritime Continent and too dry in Pacific NW in December

Exactly. Terms like optimism and pessimism are only relevant in situations where your input can help to determine the actual outcome. To my knowledge, nobody on this forum or Wxtwitter that loves winter weather like us has invented a weather control device. But looking for the hints that enable us to successfully forecast the long range pattern is a big benefit to society. Especially in this age of rapid warming on a geological scale and extreme weather. Maybe some on here incorrectly infer from my posts that I don’t like winter. This is pretty far from the truth. I was born a few days after an historic KU snowstorm. So it’s as close in weather terms to being born under and astrologically snowy sign.. When I point out the extreme ratio of something like 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months since 15-16 to only on cold one it’s not something that gives me pleasure. I don’t like extreme warmth and heat but just had to learn to adapt like everyone else. I would enjoy a meal at a favorite restaurant with even someone on the forum who disagrees with me most of the time. Since the common bond is the love for everything weather and climate and not our differences. I actually have a really great sense of humor and levity which may not always come across in my posts. So my main passion is looking for clues in order help us better forecast the weather. The reason my posts point out the warmth is because that has been our actual weather pattern of one new warm record after another for years.

My guess is that the ECMWF seasonal and weeklies beyond week 2 automatically default to the stock climo composite for whichever ENSO state is dominant at the time. The main weakness of this approach is that it can’t see the correct phase of the MJO which interacts with El Niño or La Niña to create the actual 500 mb pattern. So the more one dimensional ENSO approach last winter missed the deep trough in the West. But the general La Niña composite had some utility for placement of ridges and troughs. The MJO interaction likely drove the deeper trough and stronger -PDO pattern. A stock La Niña composite didn’t work in January 22 since the MJO interaction which wasn’t foreseen at the seasonal level drove the anomalous +PNA pattern. The record breaking MJO which drove the SSW which lead to the historic March snowfall outcome on Long Island in March 2018 also wasn’t detected by the seasonal models. But once close to initialization time, the forecasts were pretty good. Details like the record MJO 5 interacting with the El Niño in December 2015 resulted in the historic Northeast warmth which wasn’t forecast by the seasonal or weekly models.

My neighbors back on the South Shore would wrap their windmill palms and they would survive the winters. Probably made more effective by not having any cold winters since 14-15. I like the look of the newer Crepe Myrtles more. They match the look of our natural tree varieties better in my opinion than palms. The palms on the GSB in the winter in Lindenhurst when the bay freezes look out of place to me. But I can see how people like them the rest of the year with the party atmosphere down there.

You are late to the game. They have been widely scattered around the Long Island South Shore for a decade now. But only the ones that are cold hardy. Numerous December days in the 50s to near 60 with a sprinkling of near average days in between is a big help to people with reduced heating bill costs. A NYC December average In the low 40s is the same as the November average in the late 1800s. Our new January average in the low 30s is the same as the December average temperature in the late 1800s. So December has become more of a fall month than a winter one as it now takes winter later to get going. I think we got spoiled with all those cold and snowy Decembers from 2000 to 2010.

The MJO is slowing in 4-7 and nobody said this month would be +13. So not sure where you are reading from. The bias corrected Euro RMM is matching the GFS and Euro VP anomalies.

The late November weeklies in 2015 completely missed the record warmth for December. They had a stock Nino ridge in NW Canada and SE Nino trough for December. Instead we got the opposite with a PAC NW trough and SE ridge. My guess is that the error was missing the record MJO 5 El Niño pattern which produced the historic +13 warmth with that ridiculous standing wave. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/11/

Also a very Niña-like Northern branch of the jet stream with the December 2010 La Niña flooding record getting challenged in parts of Washington State. Plus the wettest first week of December on record ahead of La Niña years 2007 and 1975. Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Dec 1 to Dec 7 Missing Count 1 2023-12-07 6.73 2 2 2007-12-07 6.13 0 3 1975-12-07 5.91 0

We’ll we have been getting those regularly since the start of the month. In the old days, we didn’t regularly get 40°+ Decembers as frequently as we have since 2011. I bolded the 40°+Decembers since 2011. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 50.8 0 2 2001 44.1 0 3 2021 43.8 0 4 1984 43.7 0 5 2006 43.6 0 6 2011 43.3 0 7 1998 43.1 0 8 1982 42.7 0 9 1990 42.6 0 10 1891 42.5 0 11 1994 42.2 0 12 1923 42.0 0 13 2012 41.5 0 14 1996 41.3 0 - 1953 41.3 0 15 1979 41.1 0 16 1956 40.9 0 - 1931 40.9 0 17 1971 40.8 0 18 2014 40.5 0 - 1965 40.5 0 19 1957 40.2 0 20 2018 40.1 0

What do you consider a torch? To me any December over 40° in NYC is warm.

The models don’t have any real cold. It’s an average of normal days like today and near +10 days in the 50s to perhaps around 60° like we saw last weekend. So when you average out normal and +10 it’s still warm.

Just remember, there isn’t any difference in the warming potential to the pattern from a strong +1.9 El Niño and a super +2.1 El Niño. The important thing is how it combines with other signals like the MJO. The Maritime Continent phases will be active like we are seeing this month with an extensive +30C warm pool in the region which hasn’t happened before in an El Niño. The area around the Philippines near MJO 4-5 just had their warmest November on record. Plus there has been a rebound in SSTs north of Australia which is more Niña-like also. So these competing influences near the Dateline to the Maritime Continent amplify and slow the MJO in the warm MJO 4-7 phases. December starting with a very amplified forcing signal in MJO 4 and 7 which is very warm in North America