bluewave

Maybe we can sneak in a dry Thanksgiving weekend as the Euro and GFS suppress the southern stream low. The CMC still has the storm. But these split flow patterns are very tough for the models.

Tonight looks like it may be the coldest night of the fall so far in NYC. The MOS is down to 34° and some models have 33°. Then the temperatures rebound. What was supposed to be a Thanksgiving cooldown now has highs in the low 50s for NYC which is pretty much close to average.

What we are seeing this week is just more back and forth. The coming -EPO +PNA is more El Niño-like. But the occasional Southeast ridge and warmer storm track next few days is classic La Niña. So my guess is that the El Niño and La Niña influences will continue to compete for influence. This back and forth has been going on since last spring.

All this talk of how strong the El Niño is getting is pretty much moot since it’s still not well coupled with the mid latitude pattern across the North Pacific and North America. The November pattern so far is much closer to the La Niña composite with and Aleutian Ridge and secondary ridge near the Southern Rockies and Plains. The cooler trough near New England is also a November La Niña pattern. The persistent La Niña background state is one reason that November is one of the few months out of the year with cooler departures located near the Northeast. Most other months of the year have been near to record warm.

I have been pointing out how warm the area from the Dateline back to the WPAC has been since last spring. That’s why I though it was unlikely that this would follow the trajectory of a big east based event like 97-98. So now we have +30C near the Dateline and around the Maritime Continent. That’s why we are seeing the forcing back and forth between those regions right now.

I would say the fall pattern has been a blend of La Niña and El Niño influences.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6 Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas Abstract Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight of these occurring after 1970. The two types of multiyear La Niña events over this time period followed either a super El Niño or a central Pacific El Niño. We find that multiyear La Niña events differ from single-year La Niñas by a prominent onset rate, which is rooted in the western Pacific warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for the central Pacific multiyear La Niña events type and thermocline feedback for the super El Niño multiyear La Niña events type. The results from large ensemble climate simulations support the observed multiyear La Niña events–western Pacific warming link. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central

That the power of even a little forcing near MJO 4-6 around 120 E to pump the Southeast ridge. New run Old run

Looks like NYC continues to miss the freezes with the weak CAA and light winds. Thanksgiving should be a nice day for travel with seasonable temperatures. Good that the rain is coming in ahead of the holiday and after.

It’s pretty rare that we get any decent frozen precip events along the coast in late November with a piece of the trough hanging back over the SW.

So we get a battle between the Nino-like +PNA -EPO and Niña-like Southeast ridge around Thanksgiving.

You can already see the forcing back and forth this month.

It’s really a +30C forcing battle between the Maritime Continent and the area around the Dateline as the IOD is rapidly fading with big SST increases in MJO 4-6.

Yeah, much better pattern on Long Island than points further west.

That was still one of my favorite snowfall seasons. Probably the greatest Euro control run in history. The 950 mb benchmark blizzard could be the last time one of these Lockitin posts actually verified. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

The 17-18 winter was +1.1 warmer than average due to the record 80° warmth in February. So the cold departures from December into January got erased by the big +6.1 departure in February. NYC Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9

We have had snow droughts before, but never an 8 winter cold drought before.

Yeah, the most impressive Arctic outbreak since 15-16 went to our west in February 2021. The February departures weren’t low enough for the winter to average colder than normal. So we go into this winter with a record 8 warmer than average winters in a row. A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9

That’s preventing Nino 3.4 from going super on ONI with warmth too far in the east and near the Dateline. So it leaves the subsurface under 3.4 cooler than usual for an El Niño.

Yeah, not sure what it’s going to take to finally see a cold winter again in the Northeast. Northeast DJF average temperatures since 15-16 22-23….30.7…..+4.9….2nd warmest 21-22…..26.1…..+0.3 20-21…..27.1…..+2.2….16th warmest 19-20…..28.9…..+4.0…6th warmest 18-19…..25.6……+0.7 17-18…..25.3……+0.4 16-17…..29.5……+4.6….5th warmest 15-16…..30.7…..+5.8……2nd warmest

Ensembles backing off on cold around Thanksgiving with a warm up right after. So similar pattern of recent years with models underestimating the Southeast ridge day 6-10. New run Old run

Very warm Niña-like fall temperature pattern across North America like the last two years with not much cold air to be found.

3rd greatest 5 hour temperarure rise in November.

It’s mostly that the days have been off beyond a week which is par for the course. Instead of the warmth for Thanksgiving, it just got moved up a day. Then probably another warm up after the Thanksgiving cooldown. But the exact dates after to be determined. The last time we had a really cold Thanksgiving was back in 2018. But this year will be much warmer than that. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/23/northeast-endured-its-most-frigid-thanksgiving-decades-record-cold-persists-black-friday/ Data for November 22, 2018 through November 22, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 10 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 12 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 12 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 13 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 13 CT DANBURY COOP 13 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 14 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 14 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 14 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 15 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 15 NY WEST POINT COOP 15 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 15 CT GROTON COOP 15 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 16 NY MATTITUCK COOP 16 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 16 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 17 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 17 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 17 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 17 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 17 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 17 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 17 NJ HARRISON COOP 18 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 18 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 18 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 18 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 18 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 19 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 19 NY CENTERPORT COOP 19 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 19 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 19 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 19 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 19 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 20 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 22