bluewave

Continuation of the warm pattern for at least the next few weeks on all the ensembles as the Pacific Jet won’t let up.

This is the first time that NYC averaged over 50° for the first 5 days of January. The departure was +17.5 even against the warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. So a record warm start to Janaury. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 5 Missing Count 1 2023-01-05 52.3 0 2 1950-01-05 49.7 0 3 2007-01-05 49.6 0 4 2000-01-05 48.4 0 5 2005-01-05 47.2 0

The pattern is starting to mimic ones seen during the warmest and wettest super El Niños. Notice the record rains into California and the lack of snow in the New England mountains. It will be interesting to see what caused this to happen during a La Niña year.

The most impressive warm temperature record from the last week goes to Burlington, Vermont. The 51° minimum was the 2nd warmest on record for December. It was also a degree warmer than Newark which made the 4th warmest minimum for January. So another case of the warm minimums across the region ranking higher than the maximums. The high of 66° yesterday at Newark ranked 7th warmest for January. Burlington Area, VTPeriod of record: 1884-01-01 through 2023-01-04 Highest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 12/25 45 in 1964 42 in 2014 40 in 1982 12/26 45 in 1895 43 in 1964 36 in 1922 12/27 43 in 1936 41 in 1949 38 in 2019 12/28 39 in 2008 36 in 1982 34 in 1928 12/29 42 in 1984 39 in 1905 38 in 1996 12/30 45 in 2022 35 in 1940 35 in 1927 12/31 51 in 2022 39 in 1965 38 in 1936 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1966 53 0 2 2022 51 0 3 1951 50 0 4 1990 49 0 - 1911 49 0 5 2015 48 0 - 1982 48 0 - 1957 48 0 - 1897 48 0 - 1895 48 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 56 0 2 2007 55 0 3 1995 53 0 - 1946 53 0 - 1932 53 0 4 2023 50 27 - 2000 50 0 - 1975 50 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 74 0 2 2007 72 0 3 2020 70 0 - 2002 70 0 - 1998 70 0 - 1932 70 0 4 1974 69 0 5 2000 68 0 - 1967 68 0 6 2017 67 0 - 2005 67 0 - 1995 67 0 7 2023 66 27 - 2013 66 0 - 2008 66 0 - 1993 66 0 - 1990 66 0 - 1975 66 0 - 1937 66 0 8 2016 65 0 - 1973 65 0 - 1972 65 0

Newark made it to the all-time winter warmest of 80° during an MJO 8-1 passage in February 2018. So that is the warmest on record for those phases of the MJO. There are other factors like the the SPV strength study that was just posted a few minutes ago. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-02-15 60 44 2018-02-16 59 36 2018-02-17 39 25 2018-02-18 46 33 2018-02-19 49 32 2018-02-20 69 46 2018-02-21 80 56 2018-02-22 59 37

Yeah, near record low snow cover over also.

Very fast Pacific flow on 12z Euro and CMC. So the storms on the runs today get suppressed to our south. Hard to get a phase with systems constantly coming ashore out West acting as kicker lows. But maybe we can put something together in later runs. Just wouldn’t count on anything until it comes under 120 hrs with both the Euro and CMC in agreement.

Record high of 65° at Islip.

61° now in NYC as they are getting closer to the record of 66°. 1/4 66 in 1950 64 in 1993 62 in 1998

December featured the 2nd strongest Greenland blocking at 500mb just behind 2010. The previous 2nd strongest was 1978. This is the first time such strong Greenland blocking became so south based and linked up with the SE Ridge at times.

We have had 7 consecutive warmer winters from 15-16 to 21-22. The 96-97 to 01-02 was only 4 years. So this one is the longest streak.

But the warming itself influences what types of patterns we get. Marine heatwaves in the WPAC and off the US East Coast can result in record SE Ridges instead of more frequent cooler troughs. We haven’t had a cold winter since 14-15 which has never happened over such a long period of time. So if the circulation pattern changes, then what used to be a 32° day can become more frequent 50° or even 60° winter days.

All I can say is they the temperatures will probably average above normal the next few weeks. No sign yet of the fast Pacific flow and trough near the West Coast backing off. Plus all the Arctic air is currently in Asia.

I understand. We always need some type of extra support like a perfectly timed closed low to get it to snow in warm patterns. But it’s has been a challenge in recent years to get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit and allow the pieces to fall into place. We have learned that we need to see snow under 5 or even 3 days to be believable with such a hostile Pacific.

Yeah, 14-15 to 17-18 was a peak in snowfall for 5 year periods since 02-03 in NYC. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.3 2.6 4.2 7.7 2.7 T 16.4 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 M M M T 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.0 4.1 16.7 12.2 8.2 1.1 42.3 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.6 0.9 7.8 10.6 11.7 3.3 T 34.9 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T T 7.7 7.0 13.7 3.8 0.7 32.9 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3

Yeah, I think the record SSTs in the WPAC and off the East Coast are working in tandem to enhance the SE Ridge. Notice how the models have been underestimating the -PNA and the SE Ridge day 11-15. This has been a common occurrence in recent years. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

Yeah, the faster Pacific Jet started with the 18-19 season. Notice the step down in snowfall from the previous 5 year period. The strong La Niña background state prevented the El Niño from coupling in 18-19. We got really lucky with the +PNA -AO for the 2020-2021 La Niña. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.3 2.6 4.2 7.7 2.7 T 16.4 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 M M M T 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.0 4.1 16.7 12.2 8.2 1.1 42.3 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.9 2.5 7.3 7.9 1.4 T 18.1 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 M M M 0.4 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 0.1 3.5 23.2 13.4 13.5 1.0 54.8 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7

The long range EPS and GEFS continue to underestimate the Pacific Jet and the -PNA trough near the West Coast day 11-15. So a continuation of the day 11-15 forecasts struggling with the fast Pacific flow. These week 2 forecasts have been getting pushed back since late November. New runs for Jan 10 Old runs

Today is the 4 consecutive day over 50° in NYC. Models extend this to 8 days by Thursday. So a pretty long 50° streak for this time of year. The only thing currently in the way of 70° for Wednesday is clouds and some showers. The 850 mb temperatures of +10C to +12C would support 70° if we can sneak in a few breaks of sun.

The snowfall so far has been all elevation and lake effect dependent.

Yeah, 8-10 days is the effective limit before the model skill quickly drops off. But sometimes there are aspects of the day 10-15 teleconnection forecasts that the models are able to pick up on. The record block north of Alaska showing up day 10 and beyond was a big model win. But the models didn’t catch on to the block linking up with the SE Ridge until under 8 days. So little details which determine the actual storm tracks take longer to resolve. The record Western Atlantic warm pool and the La Niña cause the models to underestimate the strength of the SE Ridge beyond 7 days. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

It quickly corrected warmer in the following runs. But the EPS mean rule worked out. Tucked in lows from 8 days out usually correct westward and too warm in time. It’s the lows that are suppressed day 8-10 when we have a great blocking pattern and favorable Pacific that can become our KU events.

I will give the ECMWF credit for showing the 3 possible clusters on that snowier run. The one that won out was the cutter track. The next one was really tucked in and had P-type issues at the coast. Only one cluster had the benchmark track which would have made the whole forum happy.

There is no way to know what the weather is going to be beyond the effective 10 to sometimes 15 day model limit. All we know is that the models have been pushing back the good pattern further out into time since late November. Just look at the model discussions at the beginning of the December thread. We can remember some of the longer range runs showing a possible snowstorm that turned out to be a record cutter right before Christmas. While the models missed the magnitude of cold behind the cutter, it only lasted 3 days. Then the current warm up beat expectations. At least the models were in good agreement longer range on the extreme block north of Alaska which drove that cold. Fast Pacific flow patterns can be tricky for snow even if we can sneak in a few closer to average days in an otherwise mild pattern. We usually have the issue of primary lows running to the Great Lakes. Then the secondary low can get suppressed to our south. Plus models may keep showing snow chances day 6-10 that can’t make it to under 5 days.

Just missed the record high of 63° by one degree yesterday at Newark. This is following the record low max on the 24th. 12/30 63 in 1984 62 in 2022 58 in 1990 12/24 17 in 2022 21 in 1989 22 in 1983