bluewave
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First one for Islip in February. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 68 0 - 1976 68 0 2 1991 67 0 3 2017 65 0 4 2018 64 0 - 2016 64 0 5 2012 63 0 - 2002 63 0 - 1997 63 0 - 1985 63 0
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Not sure since White Plains radiates better than JFK and they were 2nd warmest for minimums this winter.
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For some reason, the low temperature rankings have been cooler at JFK relative to places like White Plains. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 34.0 0 2 2001-2002 33.6 0 3 2016-2017 33.2 0 4 1997-1998 33.0 0 5 2011-2012 32.7 0 - 1982-1983 32.7 0 6 2022-2023 32.6 13 7 1974-1975 32.3 0 8 1952-1953 32.2 0 9 2019-2020 32.1 0 10 1972-1973 31.6 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1997-1998 30.0 20 2 2022-2023 29.5 13 3 2015-2016 29.3 0 - 2001-2002 29.3 0 4 2011-2012 29.1 1 5 2016-2017 29.0 1 6 2019-2020 28.2 2 7 1952-1953 27.7 0 8 1998-1999 27.5 23 9 1996-1997 27.3 24 10 2012-2013 27.0 0
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JFK is further back in 5th place. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 40.9 0 2 2001-2002 40.6 0 3 2011-2012 40.0 0 4 2016-2017 39.5 0 5 2022-2023 39.3 13 6 1997-1998 39.1 0 7 2019-2020 38.7 0 8 1982-1983 38.6 0 9 1990-1991 38.4 0 10 1974-1975 37.9 0
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Continues to look like a winter climate shift to much warmer occurred with the record +13.3 December 2015. A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Feb 23...+5.7 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+5.0 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.9 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9
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We should make a run on 1st place next few days then it will come down to the last week of the month. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2022-2023 40.9 13 4 2011-2012 40.5 0 5 1931-1932 40.2 0 6 1997-1998 39.6 0 7 2016-2017 39.3 0 8 2019-2020 39.2 0 9 1990-1991 39.1 0 10 1998-1999 38.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.1 0 2 2022-2023 41.0 13 3 2015-2016 40.1 0 4 2011-2012 40.0 0 5 1997-1998 39.4 0 6 2016-2017 38.9 0 7 1931-1932 38.8 0 8 2019-2020 38.7 0 9 1990-1991 38.1 0 10 1982-1983 37.9 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 37.2 0 - 2001-2002 37.2 0 2 2022-2023 37.1 13 - 2011-2012 37.1 1 3 1997-1998 36.6 25 4 2016-2017 36.1 1 5 2019-2020 35.7 3 6 1998-1999 35.1 25 - 1990-1991 35.1 8 7 1996-1997 34.8 32 8 1952-1953 34.4 0 9 2012-2013 33.8 0 10 2006-2007 33.7 0 - 1982-1983 33.7 3 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 39.2 0 2 2001-2002 38.7 0 3 2022-2023 38.6 13 4 1997-1998 38.5 0 5 2011-2012 38.3 0 6 2019-2020 37.4 0 7 1994-1995 36.9 0 8 2016-2017 36.8 0 9 1998-1999 36.5 0 10 1990-1991 36.2 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1931-1932 39.5 0 2 2001-2002 38.9 0 3 2015-2016 38.8 0 4 2022-2023 38.1 14 5 1997-1998 38.0 0 6 2011-2012 37.9 0 7 2016-2017 37.6 0 8 2019-2020 37.5 0 9 1948-1949 37.4 0 10 1936-1937 37.2 0
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70° or warmer is becoming much more common in February since 2011 at places like Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 80 0 2 1949 76 0 3 2017 74 0 - 1997 74 0 - 1954 74 0 4 1985 73 0 5 2011 71 0 6 2023 70 13 - 2022 70 0 - 1999 70 0 - 1939 70 0
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-PNA and south based blocking on steroids this winter.
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White Plains is currently in 3rd place for warmest winter with Poughkeepsie in 4th. Danbury is in 1st place for warmest with a period of record starting there in 98-99. Only the 4th winter when Caribou averaged over 20°. BTV is 3rd warmest at nearly 30°. You can see how many top ranking warmest winters there have been since the 15-16 super El Niño. So very close tracking between the interior Northeast and coastal plain. Equivalent benchmarks for warmest across the region NYC….40°+ HPN…..36°+ POU…..34°+ DXR…...34°+ CAR……19°+ BTV……27°+ Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 37.2 0 - 2001-2002 37.2 0 2 2011-2012 37.1 1 3 2022-2023 36.8 15 4 1997-1998 36.6 25 5 2016-2017 36.1 1 6 2019-2020 35.7 3 7 1998-1999 35.1 25 - 1990-1991 35.1 8 8 1996-1997 34.8 32 9 1952-1953 34.4 0 10 2012-2013 33.8 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 36.8 0 2 1931-1932 35.2 7 3 2011-2012 34.8 1 4 2022-2023 34.3 15 - 2001-2002 34.3 0 5 1932-1933 34.1 8 6 1936-1937 33.8 2 7 2019-2020 33.0 0 - 1997-1998 33.0 2 8 1996-1997 32.8 2 9 2016-2017 32.6 0 10 1952-1953 32.2 0 Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022-2023 36.3 15 2 2015-2016 35.1 0 3 2001-2002 34.7 0 4 2011-2012 34.6 1 5 2021-2022 33.1 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 21.6 0 2 2009-2010 21.0 0 3 2020-2021 20.8 0 4 2022-2023 20.7 15 5 2001-2002 19.3 0 6 2019-2020 17.9 0 7 1959-1960 17.7 0 8 2011-2012 17.6 0 - 2010-2011 17.6 0 - 1957-1958 17.6 0 9 1982-1983 17.5 0 10 2005-2006 17.3 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 30.2 0 2 2016-2017 29.5 0 3 2022-2023 29.4 15 4 2001-2002 28.8 0 5 2011-2012 27.8 0 6 1932-1933 27.6 0 - 1905-1906 27.6 1 7 1936-1937 26.3 0 8 2019-2020 26.1 0 9 1931-1932 26.0 0 10 1948-1949 25.9 0
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Spring is 3-4 weeks early over much of the Southeast into the lower Mid-Atlantic.
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The only time that it is believable is if it makes it to within 120 hrs. Even during other winters with more snow, models show too much snow beyond 120 hrs. We would have multiple 75-100 seasons if all the post 120hr snowfall verified.
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We need a -NAO to suppress the SE Ridge just enough. But not so much that the trailing waves get suppressed. So a bit of a thread the needle to get NYC past 1” on the season. Too weak a -NAO and the frozen stays up in New England. This would lead to a stronger SE Ridge than forecast days 8-15 as has been the story all season. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html
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SE Ridge still a factor at 240 hrs. Some slightly better east based blocking than the old 360 hr forecast. We would need the gradient to push south of NYC to have a shot at going over 1” in NYC. Otherwise it will be a New England special pattern especially the higher elevations. New run Old run
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Not sure a -AO or -NAO would have as much impact as the better SSW years this March with how hostile the Pacific continues to be. We had the 2nd lowest December -AO on record back in December. This year is the lowest seasonal snowfall by a wide margin for top 5 lowest December AO years. While a -PNA is less hostile overall in late February and March than December, we would still want to see some Pacific improvement. Perhaps enough for NYC to finally get to 1” or more on the season. December top 5 -AO and seasonal snowfall 2009……-3.413….51.4” 2022…….-2.716….0.4” 2010….….-2.631…61.9” 2000…...-2.354….35.0” 1995………-2.127….75.6”
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I posted this earlier in the thread. Unfortunately, we don’t have the 17-18 snowy and more favorable pattern before this SSW. Since the 1990s, snowfall before the SSW has roughly been proportional to after.The best snowfall outcomes for NYC after the SSW already had 10.0” of snowfall before. This will be the first SSW with under 1” seasonal snowfall up to the date of the event. So the snowfall during SSW winters were a product of the greater background pattern. I bolded the Feb SSWs with around 6” or lower seasonal before the events occurred. So far this year has been closest to 01-02 which only picked up a T after the SSW. 1999, 2007, and 2008 were better but still well short of the more memorable SSWs on the list like 2018. https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html SSW dates and NYC before and after snowfall Jan 5 2021…….10.5….28.1 Jan 2 2019……..6.4…..14.1 Feb 12 2018……19.4….21.5 Jan 7 2013……..5.1……21.0 Feb 9 2010……15.5…..35.9 Jan 24 2009….12.0…..15.6 Feb 22 2008….5.7…….6.2 Feb 24 2007…..4.6……7.8 Jan 21 2006….11.7…..28.3 Jan 7 2004….19.8…..22.8 Jan 18 2003…13.2….36.1 Feb 18 2002…..3.5…..T Jan 2 2001…..13.4….21.6 Feb 25 1999…..6.7…..6.0
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The record WPAC warm pool along with the record NW Atlantic SSTs have combined for the record low snowfall. The record SSTs to our east become our friend when the Pacific becomes more favorable with Atlantic blocking. Provides more energy to the snowstorms like in January 2016 and March 2018. But the MJO forcing shifting away from 4-6 is essential. We can work with warmer winters when the MJO and Pacific becomes favorable. The one thing we can’t get with warmer winters is a challenge to 95-96 and 50” becomes much more difficult. But plenty on the forum will take a warm winter with a favorable Pacific and Atlantic blocking intervals and snowfall in the 30s or even 40s. We saw how the hostile Pacific overpowered the -4 AO back in December along with the near record cold around Christmas. That would have been a snowy pattern for us had the Pacific come on board. So the big question is if climate change will result in more hostile Pacific patterns long term? The global climate models haven’t been very helpful. So we need a longer observation period to be sure. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/how-pattern-trends-across-tropical-pacific-ocean-critical-understanding-future
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NYC has had 10 top 20 lowest snowfall seasons since the early 1990s when the variance become more extreme. But 7 of the top 10 snowiest over the same interval. The prerequisite for a top 10 snowiest in NYC is a colder than average winter. That’s why the last top 10 snowiest was back in 14-15. But NYC 2 biggest snowstorms in 2016 and 2006 were during warmer winters. So it’s easier to score one big snowfall in a warm winter than 50” or more for a seasonal total. The hostile Pacific since 18-19 has been more of a detriment to 30”+ snowfall than the warmer temperatures. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2023-04-30 0.4 76 2 1973-04-30 2.8 0 3 2002-04-30 3.5 0 4 1919-04-30 3.8 0 5 2020-04-30 4.8 0 6 1901-04-30 5.1 2 7 1932-04-30 5.3 0 8 1998-04-30 5.5 0 9 2012-04-30 7.4 0 10 1989-04-30 8.1 0 - 1878-04-30 8.1 0 11 1951-04-30 9.3 0 12 1997-04-30 10.0 0 13 1942-04-30 11.3 0 14 1955-04-30 11.5 0 15 1931-04-30 11.6 0 16 1995-04-30 11.8 0 17 2008-04-30 11.9 0 18 1872-04-30 12.1 0 19 2007-04-30 12.4 0 20 1992-04-30 12.6 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1996-04-30 75.6 0 2 1948-04-30 63.9 0 3 2011-04-30 61.9 0 4 1923-04-30 60.4 0 5 1873-04-30 60.2 0 6 2014-04-30 57.4 0 7 1875-04-30 56.4 0 8 1899-04-30 55.9 1 9 1961-04-30 54.7 0 10 1994-04-30 53.4 0 11 1907-04-30 53.2 0 12 1934-04-30 52.0 0 13 1967-04-30 51.5 0 14 2010-04-30 51.4 0 15 1978-04-30 50.7 0 - 1917-04-30 50.7 1 - 1916-04-30 50.7 0 16 2015-04-30 50.3 0 17 1893-04-30 49.4 1 18 2003-04-30 49.3 0 19 1905-04-30 48.2 0 20 1920-04-30 47.6 0
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The influence may just be enough to get NYC to 1” or more for the season. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2023-04-30 0.4 76 2 1973-04-30 2.8 0 3 2002-04-30 3.5 0 4 1919-04-30 3.8 0 5 2020-04-30 4.8 0 6 1901-04-30 5.1 2 7 1932-04-30 5.3 0 8 1998-04-30 5.5 0 9 2012-04-30 7.4 0 10 1989-04-30 8.1 0 - 1878-04-30 8.1 0
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Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 0.0 2.6 10.5 23.0 18.4 10.5 4.0 69.0 1960-1961 0.0 0.0 16.4 16.7 25.4 T T 58.5 2002-2003 T 0.3 11.3 4.3 32.1 2.8 5.4 56.2 1977-1978 0.0 0.6 1.0 20.1 18.1 8.7 0.0 48.5 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 16.2 1.4 29.6 T 0.0 47.2 1966-1967 0.0 T 8.8 2.8 19.9 15.5 T 47.0 2013-2014 0.0 0.2 6.7 17.0 21.0 0.6 0.1 45.6 1993-1994 0.0 T 8.0 7.1 23.7 6.4 0.0 45.2 1948-1949 0.0 T 22.4 5.2 12.4 4.5 0.0 44.5 2014-2015 0.0 0.1 0.3 17.1 13.6 13.1 0.0 44.2 2010-2011 0.0 T 15.8 22.1 2.8 1.3 T 42.0 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.3 8.1 1.9 T 41.4
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Since the 1990s, snowfall before the SSW has roughly been proportional to after.The best snowfall outcomes for NYC after the SSW already had 10.0” of snowfall before. This will be the first SSW with under 1” seasonal snowfall up to the date of the event. So the snowfall during SSW winters were a product of the greater background pattern. https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html SSW dates and NYC before and after snowfall Jan 5 2021…….10.5….28.1 Jan 2 2019……..6.4…..14.1 Feb 12 2018……19.4….21.5 Jan 7 2013……..5.1……21.0 Feb 9 2010……15.5…..35.9 Jan 24 2009….12.0…..15.6 Feb 22 2008….5.7…….6.2 Feb 24 2007…..4.6……7.8 Jan 21 2006….11.7…..28.3 Jan 7 2004….19.8…..22.8 Jan 18 2003…13.2….36.1 Feb 18 2002…..3.5…..T Jan 2 2001…..13.4….21.6 Feb 25 1999…..6.7…..6.0
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Maybe we get a brief gradient pattern that gets NYC over 1” on the season if the SE Ridge doesn’t correct stronger again in later runs. Sometimes a -PNA can be a little better for us later in the season than the early season. But a slightly weaker than forecast Scandinavian Block or east based -NAO will allow the SE Ridge to flex too much.
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Your method along with the AWSSI both create a number based on snowfall and temperature. Both scales are a little behind 2001-2002. So one of the least severe winters on record.
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You use similar methodology to the AWSSI from the MRCC. https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp
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Currently the 3rd warmest winter in NYC through the 12th. There were 4 top 10 warmest years since the 15-16 super El Niño. 9 years since the early 90s made the top 10. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2022-2023 40.5 16 - 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.2 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 2019-2020 39.2 0 8 1990-1991 39.1 0 9 1998-1999 38.6 0 10 1948-1949 38.5 0 - 1889-1890 38.5 0
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There are a few things here. While the ridge out West only dominated the 13-14 and 14-15 winters, it has frequently been a player during other times of the year since then. Think about all the record heat and drought out west. So it continues to be a player in the climate and not just a passing fad. The interesting thing about the record SE Ridge or WAR is that it first emerged during the 15-16 super El Niño. December 2015 was the strongest SE Ridge or WAR for a whole month leading to the +13.3 departure. But since it was an El Niño, off course the SE Ridge eventually faded in January with the historic blizzard. This lingered into February. It has been a factor every winter since 15-16 through this one. Now this doesn’t mean that there won’t be intervals when it relaxes for a time. An El Niño would be an ideal time for this to happen. We just need the El Niño to be able to couple. The WPAC warm pool lead to the more Nina-like pattern during the attempted 18-19 El Niño.
