bluewave

Each new stronger El Niño just raises the bar on the record heat potential. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/where-does-global-warming-go-during-la-niña-0

A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Jan 23…+9.5 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.5 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.9 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9

POU hasn’t had any days yet with a 32° or lower high temperature. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature <= 32 Missing Count 1 2023 0 5 - 1933 0 2 - 1932 0 2 2 2002 2 0 - 1990 2 0 3 2006 3 0 - 1937 3 0 4 1975 4 0 - 1967 4 0 - 1947 4 0 - 1944 4 0 - 1931 4 4 5 2020 5 0 - 1995 5 0 - 1989 5 0 - 1949 5 0 Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Daily Data For a Month January 2023 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 52 38 45.0 16.4 20 0 T M M 2 55 31 43.0 14.5 22 0 0.00 M M 3 45 34 39.5 11.2 25 0 0.39 M M 4 53 41 47.0 18.9 18 0 0.15 M M 5 50 43 46.5 18.5 18 0 0.01 M M 6 49 36 42.5 14.6 22 0 0.30 M M 7 44 26 35.0 7.3 30 0 0.00 M M 8 38 20 29.0 1.4 36 0 0.00 M M 9 43 23 33.0 5.5 32 0 0.00 M M 10 42 28 35.0 7.7 30 0 0.00 M M 11 36 25 30.5 3.3 34 0 0.00 M M 12 51 34 42.5 15.4 22 0 0.27 M M 13 56 34 45.0 18.0 20 0 0.08 M M 14 34 28 31.0 4.1 34 0 T M M 15 36 25 30.5 3.7 34 0 T M M 16 40 24 32.0 5.2 33 0 0.00 M M 17 38 19 28.5 1.8 36 0 0.00 M M 18 52 30 41.0 14.4 24 0 0.00 M M 19 39 29 34.0 7.4 31 0 0.63 M M 20 46 37 41.5 14.9 23 0 0.01 M M 21 39 33 36.0 9.5 29 0 0.00 M M 22 41 32 36.5 10.0 28 0 0.20 M M 23 35 33 34.0 7.5 31 0 0.47 M M 24 40 33 36.5 10.0 28 0 0.00 M M 25 41 29 35.0 8.5 30 0 0.54 M M 26 44 37 40.5 14.0 24 0 0.26 M M 27 M M M M M M M M M 28 M M M M M M M M M 29 M M M M M M M M M 30 M M M M M M M M M 31 M M M M M M M M M ………………………………………………………+10.1 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1932 37.9 3 2 2023 37.3 5 3 1933 36.0 2 4 1990 34.8 0 5 1950 33.9 0 6 2006 33.8 0 7 1937 33.7 2 8 1947 33.3 0 9 2020 33.1 0 10 1995 33.0 0 11 2002 32.8 0 12 1998 32.6 0 13 2012 32.2 0 14 2017 32.1 0 15 1949 31.9 0 16 2016 31.5 0 - 2007 31.5 0

Very unusual January 500 mb pattern for a La Niña. The strong Aleutian Low and California flooding was like a super El Niño. But there was no Nino trough over the SE US. More of a La Niña SE Ridge-Western Atlantic Ridge with the record warm pool off the East Coast. January 2023 January La Niña composite January El Niño composite Record warm Atlantic SSTs for January boosting the Western Atlantic ridge yet again.

Warmest January on record so far for many stations from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 40.0 5 2 1990 36.9 1 3 2006 36.5 0 4 2017 35.6 1 - 2002 35.6 0 5 1998 35.4 11 6 2020 35.3 0 7 2012 34.4 0 - 2007 34.4 0 8 1967 33.8 0 9 1989 33.6 2 10 1995 33.5 4 - 1953 33.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 44.2 5 2 1932 42.0 0 3 1990 40.4 0 4 1950 40.3 0 5 1998 40.1 0 6 2006 39.6 0 7 2002 39.4 0 8 1937 39.0 0 9 1933 38.8 0 10 2020 38.7 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 43.3 5 2 1932 43.2 0 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 41.5 5 2 1998 39.1 0 3 1995 38.0 0 4 1990 37.9 0 5 2002 37.7 0 6 2006 37.5 0 7 2020 37.3 0 8 2017 36.2 0 - 2012 36.2 0 9 2007 35.9 0 10 1975 35.0 0

Top 3 warmest January for much of the region.

This is the 2nd warmest January for NYC with another warmer than average week coming up. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1932 43.2 0 2 2023 43.1 7 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0

This has been the 2nd lowest NYC snowfall through January 20th and 5th lowest for ISP. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Jan 20 Missing Count 1 1871-01-20 0.0 0 2 2023-01-20 T 1 - 1973-01-20 T 0 3 1995-01-20 0.2 0 - 1901-01-20 0.2 0 4 2016-01-20 0.4 0 - 2007-01-20 0.4 0 - 1966-01-20 0.4 0 Go Time Series Summary for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Jan 20 Missing Count 1 1995-01-20 T 0 - 1973-01-20 T 0 3 1972-01-20 0.1 0 4 2007-01-20 0.3 0 5 2023-01-20 0.4 1 6 2012-01-20 0.5 0

On track for one of the warmest Januaries on record with more mild weather to go. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 43.8 12 2 1932 43.2 0 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0 11 1880 39.2 0 12 2020 39.1 0

2022 was the warmest on record over the record warm pool just to our east where the perma-ridge keeps popping up.

The trough in the West and the ridge axis near the East Coast has been the common theme. More Niña-like in December with the Aleutians Ridge. Followed by more of a Nino-like Aleutians low in January. But the storm track is still running through the Great Lakes under both regimes.

Yeah, pretty reliable day 11-15 model bias for at least the last 90 days. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

It’s a first for NYC staying above freezing from 12-28 to 1-12. Also the first time that White Plains hasn’t dropped under 25° for the same stretch. Both locations beat their warmest minimum by 4°. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 28 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2023-01-12 33 1 2 1889-01-12 29 0 3 1937-01-12 27 0 4 2007-01-12 26 0 - 1975-01-12 26 0 5 2006-01-12 25 0 - 1992-01-12 25 0 - 1983-01-12 25 0 - 1949-01-12 25 0 - 1932-01-12 25 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 28 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2023-01-12 26 1 2 2021-01-12 22 0 - 2007-01-12 22 0 3 2006-01-12 21 0 - 2003-01-12 21 0 4 2020-01-12 20 0 - 1987-01-12 20 1

Whatever you want to call it…SE Ridge, WAR, Bermuda High. Notice the 50/50 low got replaced by a giant ridge. We have seen the day 6-10 models underestimate this feature frequently. A ridge in that position has been the dominant feature since the 15-16 super El Niño. You can see a ridge this strong off the East Coast is something new since 1950. New run Old run Long term rising 500 mb heights to our east setting new records

The northern stream is dominant in La Ninas. But we are getting more of Nino-like pattern this month with the jet a little further south. But not quite as far south as in a true El Niño. The -2.716 AO was the 2nd lowest on record in December behind 2009 and was a little more negative than 2010. Notice the other La Niña Decembers with such a -AO below -2 had much more snow like 2010,2000, and 1995. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

It’s a similar evolution to the one that was shown last week with a closed low to our west. The only change is the 50/50 in the forecast from last week that was replaced by the SE Ridge or WAR off the coast.This is the same thing that happened with the storm before Christmas. So the record warm Gulf Stream circulation should be taken into account. The entire North Atlantic is near the warmest on record for January. New run Old run

It could be enough. Notice how the day 6-10 forecasts really underestimated the SE Ridge. So the low that was forecast to track across the Southeast is now into the Great Lakes instead. Not much change on the Pacific side between both runs. So it leaves the record SSTs off the coast as the an explanation. We have been seeing this over and over again. The big storm before Christmas originally started out as a coastal low before becoming a cutter. New run Old run

This has to be one of the most impressive PAC Jet extensions that we have ever seen in early January.

We are getting a December 2015 super El Niño 500 mb pattern in early January. Notice how the whole region is +10 to +15 so far. Very unusual to get a pattern like this with a La Niña.

If the ensemble forecasts are close, then NYC has a chance at finishing January near or even above 40°. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 49.5 24 2 1932 43.2 0 3 1950 41.8 2 4 1990 41.4 0 5 2006 40.9 0 6 1913 40.8 0 7 1933 40.3 0 8 1937 40.2 0 9 1998 40.0 0 10 2002 39.9 0

NYC is currently at the 9th latest first measurable snowfall as of January 7th. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1972 03-14 (1972) 1.3 01-29 (1973) 1.8 320 1870 04-04 (1870) 2.5 01-21 (1871) 0.4 291 1999 03-15 (1999) 4.0 01-20 (2000) 2.5 310 1965 04-02 (1965) 1.2 01-20 (1966) 0.4 292 2006 04-05 (2006) 0.1 01-19 (2007) 0.3 288 1997 03-14 (1997) 0.2 01-18 (1998) 0.5 309 2015 03-20 (2015) 4.5 01-17 (2016) 0.4 302 1994 03-18 (1994) 2.8 01-11 (1995) 0.2 298 1885 03-29 (1885) 3.0 01-09 (1886) 5.0 285 2001 03-26 (2001) 0.3 01-07 (2002) 0.5 286 1895 03-02 (1895) 1.0 01-07 (1896) 0.5 310

The snowfall rates over 33 days were much more impressive in 10-11 than any other year including 95-96. Newark got 60”+ from late December to late January. So they would have passed 95-96 at those rates by late February or early March. But the pattern reversed too soon. Data for December 26, 2010 through January 28, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NJ WESTFIELD 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 70.1 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 61.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 60.2 CT DANBURY COOP 59.9 CT MILFORD 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 59.1 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 59.0 CT PORTLAND 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 59.0 NJ CRANFORD COOP 57.3 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 57.0 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 56.0 Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 61.5 2011-01-27 0 2 53.6 2011-01-26 0 3 48.7 1978-02-14 0 4 45.7 1978-02-18 0 5 45.5 1961-02-16 0 6 45.2 1978-02-13 0 7 45.0 1978-02-15 0 8 44.9 1978-02-17 0 9 44.8 1961-02-15 0 10 44.6 1961-02-17 0 11 44.2 1978-02-10 0 12 43.9 1978-02-12 0 13 43.8 2011-01-28 0 14 43.5 1948-01-24 0 15 43.1 1978-02-06 0 16 42.7 1996-01-15 0

Yeah, 2002-2003 was the last time all 3 winter months averaged colder than normal in the same season for NYC. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94728&_target2=Next+> Dec…-1.3 Jan….-4.6 Feb….-4.5

Wall to wall snow and cold from November to April has been tough to come by in our warming climate. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 42.7 31.4 30.4 32.3 36.2 48.9 37.0 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 45.6 39.1 32.3 34.0 40.5 49.9 40.2 2021-2022 44.6 41.7 28.8 34.7 42.4 50.0 40.4 2020-2021 49.4 37.2 32.9 32.2 42.4 50.9 40.8 2019-2020 41.8 36.8 37.3 38.2 44.8 47.1 41.0 2018-2019 43.5 38.1 31.1 34.4 38.7 51.9 39.6 2017-2018 45.4 33.8 30.1 39.1 38.0 45.9 38.7 2016-2017 47.7 36.6 36.2 37.8 37.1 53.4 41.5 2015-2016 49.9 48.4 33.3 35.7 45.5 49.5 43.7 2014-2015 43.9 39.6 28.7 21.6 35.2 49.3 36.4 2013-2014 43.4 37.1 27.7 29.7 35.8 48.8 37.1 2012-2013 42.0 40.5 33.1 32.1 38.3 49.7 39.3 2011-2012 49.8 40.5 36.2 38.1 47.3 52.2 44.0

It’s so warm, that the storm track really doesn’t matter. Notice how the Euro has a coastal near the Carolinas in about a week. Very rare to see above freezing temperatures into Canada with this type of storm track in January.