bluewave
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Everything posted by bluewave
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The SE Ridge has dominated since 15-16. But we were still able to get some bowling balls during 15-16, 16-17, 17-18 , and 20-21. Short on bowling balls overall since the failed El Niño in 18-19.
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We get lucky tomorrow with the -PNA and a solid 50/50 low. But we lose the 50/50 later in the week and get a stronger Miller A. Nothing to hold back an amped up Miller A when we have a strong -PNA no matter how strong the -NAO is. So you want a weaker sheared out system to make the late week work.
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I probably spoke too soon. This is looking more like a wrapped up Miller A. So notice the stronger -PNA and SE Ridge on todays run. So nothing to stop later runs from coming even further north with such an amped up system. The -NAO block over Eastern Canada is even weaker. New run Old run
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Tomorrow is a Miller B. So the CAD came in a little stronger than some of the older runs. There was not much room for it to come north. But the late week storm is more of a Miller A. You want that to be suppressed at this range otherwise it could ride too far north.
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Yes and the GFS is always wrong when it is further north than the Euro, CMC, and UKMET.
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While the Euro looks overdone on the snowfall, the warmth staying south tomorrow indicates CAD is setting up. Probably favors places in New England. Suppression shouldn’t be an issue with the strong Southeast ridge and primary going near Buffalo.
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We could actually get some snow since tomorrow may be the first warmup this year that gets suppressed.
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Record Western trough for this time of year.
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4 of the top 10 warmest winters since the super El Niño. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2022-2023 41.3 7 3 2015-2016 41.0 0 4 2011-2012 40.5 0 5 1931-1932 40.2 0 6 1997-1998 39.6 0 7 2016-2017 39.3 0 8 2019-2020 39.2 0 9 1990-1991 39.1 0 10 1998-1999 38.6 0
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The NAM is known for driving warm fronts too far north.
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That may be the best chance NYC has at going over 1” on the season. But confidence in week two forecasts showing colder and snow chances haven’t been reliable this winter. So we wait to see if it can survive until it gets under 120 hrs. We would probably need more of ridge in the Rockies to slow the Pacific Jet down enough. But there is some hint of a ridge trying to form near the Plains. But it’s still a week two forecast.
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The GFS probably is the most prone to missing the SE Ridge beyond 5 days so we get the strong cold and snowy bias. New run Old run
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There were only 2 events during a March La Niña -PNA with NYC going 6”+ since 1999. 03-22-18…..8.4” 03-02-09….8.3” Both of them were west based -PNA events with a ridge in the Rockies.
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Yes. The snowiest first week of the month was a more standard block. Even though we had a strong -PNA, the trough stayed over the Mid-Atlantic with the record snows. The more south based block in December favored areas west of NYC since the lows were too tucked in. I am thinking the early winter +PNA allowed the vortex near our area which helped it remain in place during the -PNA.
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2010 had a strong Aleutians ridge and even stronger more defined -PNA vortex. But we were able to get a 50/50 low to park over the Northeast. This time the 50/50 low got displaced too far southeast even with the much weaker -PNA this December.
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The block was too far south to create a big snowstorm for us. It’s the first time that a -2 or lower -AO linked up with the Southeast Ridge. The previous 6 -2 or lower AO Decembers had no hint of a SE Ridge.
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The La Niña background state and record WPAC warm pool drives the Aleutians ridge with leads to a -PNA SE Ridge. The record NW Atlantic SSTs drive the stronger SE Ridge or WAR. So both areas of record SSTs enhance the ridge near us. A La Niña with a colder pool of water to our east would have a weaker ridge.
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New monthly high of 71° for February at Islip. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 1159 AM EST THU FEB 16 2023 ...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT... A DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 71 WAS SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT IN NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 SET IN 2018 AND BREAKS THE MONTHLY RECORD OF 68 SET IN 2022. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).
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Yeah, that was a great winter month. Newark did very well with snowfall since the storm tracks were so tucked in. South based blocking to the east of New England forced the storm track further west. If December was a little cooler and we had a colder Christmas storm track, then Newark could have had a colder than average winter with over 50”. Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean T 1.3 3.3 4.3 7.6 2.7 T 18.6 2022-2023 0.0 T 0.1 T 0.3 M M 0.4 2021-2022 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.6 2.3 0.8 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 T 0.0 11.9 3.2 30.6 T 0.0 45.7 2019-2020 0.0 T 4.2 2.7 T T T 6.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 0.9 4.8 9.9 0.0 22.0
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Snowy is always possible provided the Pacific cooperates and lines up with a -NAO -AO. But we are yet to have a colder winter after 8 seasons. Not even sure what it would take to get a colder winter. The snowy 20-21 had a favorable Atlantic and Pacific but above average temperatures.
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Tough to say since the baseline on the warming is so much higher now than it was back in 02-03. Plus the last El Niño in 18-19 wasn’t able to couple. It was just like getting a La Niña since the WPAC warm pool was so strong.
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It started a better winter period through 05-06.
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Yeah, it seems to have worked out that way.
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The 97-98 super El Niño began the mild stretch of winters and the snow drought which lasted until 01-02.
