bluewave

Peak gust of 71 mph so far with numerous 60s gusts.

I believe they are approaching 90” this morning which would be 3rd highest. Around 3” more after this chart was compiled through yesterday Time Series Summary for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1983-1984 98.6 0 2 1981-1982 95.0 0 3 1950-1951 88.9 0 4 2010-2011 86.6 0 5 2022-2023 86.5 183 6 1916-1917 84.9 0 7 1991-1992 84.1 0 8 1961-1962 81.2 0 9 1951-1952 79.0 0 10 1966-1967 78.4 0

Severe storms can overperform on Saturday even to the coast with steep mid-level lapse rates, strong shear, an helicity. Morning warm front with possible multiple rounds convection in afternoon into evening. The key may be getting enough spacing between all the storms. But there can be squall segments and supercells. The models are all over the place on convection timing and placement. The Euro has morning, midday and evening convection.

I think 9° on a radiational cooling night between JFK-LGA-NYC is near the upper limit. But have no idea what the max difference is for those sites for radiational cooling.

NYC has had a strong UHI effect for the low temperatures since the late 1800s. Warmer lows than Newark but the highs were similar before the tree growth over the sensor. Data for August 11, 1896 through August 11, 1896 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 81 NJ NEWARK COOP 78 NY BRONX COOP 78 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 76 CT NEW LONDON COOP 75 NJ PATERSON COOP 74 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 73 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 73 CT BRIDGEPORT COOP 73 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 73 Data for August 11, 1896 through August 11, 1896 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ ELIZABETH COOP 97 NJ NEWARK COOP 97 NY WEST POINT COOP 96 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 96 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 96 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 96 NJ PATERSON COOP 95 NY BRONX COOP 94 Data for August 14, 1908 through August 14, 1908 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 84 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 75 NJ NEWARK COOP 75 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 75 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 74 NY CARMEL COOP 74 NY SALISBURY MILLS COOP 73 NY CUTCHOGUE COOP 73 NJ PATERSON COOP 72 Data for August 14, 1908 through August 14, 1908 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ ELIZABETH COOP 95 NY WEST POINT COOP 94 NY MOUNT HOPE COOP 93 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 93 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 93 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 92 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 92 Data for July 2, 1901 through July 2, 1901 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 82 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 80 NJ PATERSON COOP 80 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 79 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 79 NJ NEWARK COOP 78 Data for July 2, 1901 through July 2, 1901 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ ELIZABETH COOP 105 NY MOUNT HOPE COOP 104 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 104 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 103 NJ NEWARK COOP 103 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 102 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 102 NJ PATERSON COOP 102 NY SALISBURY MILLS COOP 100 CT NORWALK COOP 100 CT BRIDGEPORT COOP 100 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100 Data for July 1, 1901 through July 1, 1901 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature NJ ELIZABETH COOP 79 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 78 NJ NEWARK COOP 76 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 74 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 74 NJ PATERSON COOP 73 NY CARMEL COOP 73 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 73 Data for July 1, 1901 through July 1, 1901 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ ELIZABETH COOP 104 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 102 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 102 NJ NEWARK COOP 102 NJ PATERSON COOP 102 NY MOUNT HOPE COOP 102 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100

The BNL tower thermometers show how shallow the radiational cooling inversion is. A low of 21 at the surface and 35 at around 160 feet. So just above the surface of the Pine Barrens is similar in temperature to NYC.

Lows with good radiational cooling outside urban areas. EWR and JFK were able to radiate when winds went calm. NYC…38 LGA…38 JFK…29 EWR..33 FRG…28 ISP….26 HWV…24 FOK…15 HPN…28 DXR…23

Sharp gradient that month. Lower totals further NW. Higher totals across Eastern Suffolk. But ISP did better in 17-18. So banding can make a dramatic effect across 25 miles. You can see an even another big spread in 95-96. Lower years like this one can be more uniform. ISP was way above Upton in 13-14. So it’s all a matter of where the best banding sets up. Data for October 1, 1966 through April 30, 1967 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall BNL COOP 74.9 SETAUKET STRONG COOP 42.6 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 50.8 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 56.9 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 62.8 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 66.1 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 68.9 Data for October 1, 2017 through April 30, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 72.0 NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 71.8 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 65.9 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 59.2 CENTERPORT COOP 58.5 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 55.2 Data for October 1, 1995 through April 30, 1996 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 84.0 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 80.0 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 77.1 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 92.0 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 78.8 BNL COOP 90.8 Data for October 1, 2022 through April 30, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 7.4 NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 7.4 RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 6.6 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 6.5 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 6.0 CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 5.5 CENTERPORT COOP 5.4 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 5.1 CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 5.1 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 5.0 Data for October 1, 2013 through April 30, 2014 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 63.7 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 62.7 CENTERPORT COOP 60.8 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 57.3 MOUNT SINAI COOP 55.8 ROCKY POINT 2.0 N CoCoRaHS 51.4 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 47.3

Yeah, it was very active for record tracking. But was rough for outdoor workers and activities. Traffic jams were common in Long Beach. Plus the beach and boardwalk were overcrowded.

California getting close to surpassing the all -time snowpack record set during the 82-83 super El Niño.

The long term average snowfall at Islip is 29” since 1963-1964 when the station was established. Maybe it would be closer to 30-32” if more frequent measurements were taken back in the earlier era like today. Would mostly show up in the heavier snowfall seasons when measurements were fewer allowing for more compaction. The range between high and low snowfall years has been increasing. Now we get more seasons under 15” like this one or over 40”. Fewer years near the middle of the distribution range. So perhaps warming introduces more volatility into the system leading to more all or nothing type seasons. Very tough to do seasonal snowfall outlooks in the fall with such an increase in variability. Under 15” and over 40” years bolded. Some older years near 40” bolded for under measurement 23 years from 93-94 to 22-23 9 years from 63-64 to 92-93 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY lick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 0.5 4.4 9.2 9.2 4.9 0.8 29.0 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T 3.0 1.6 M 5.0 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 4.7 2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2008-2009 0.0 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 36.2 2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.8 7.3 T 0.0 10.7 2006-2007 0.0 T 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.8 T 9.0 2005-2006 0.0 0.5 7.6 4.7 19.9 3.2 0.1 36.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 7.0 21.5 17.0 13.3 0.0 58.8 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 15.5 19.1 1.1 5.7 0.0 41.4 2002-2003 0.0 1.0 16.0 2.6 26.3 3.7 5.0 54.6 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 T T 0.0 3.7 2000-2001 T 0.0 10.8 9.2 8.6 10.3 T 38.9 1999-2000 0.0 T 0.4 5.8 2.6 0.2 T 9.0 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.5 2.8 9.1 T 19.4 1997-1998 0.0 T 1.0 T T 1.6 T 2.6 1996-1997 0.0 T 1.2 3.3 2.2 3.7 2.0 12.4 1995-1996 0.0 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 1994-1995 0.0 T T T 5.1 T 0.0 5.1 1993-1994 0.0 T 3.3 8.8 20.0 5.0 0.0 37.1 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.3 10.9 13.3 0.0 28.6 1991-1992 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.3 1.5 7.6 T 13.4 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 T 3.6 5.3 1.9 0.0 10.8 1989-1990 0.0 7.6 0.2 2.0 2.0 4.2 3.0 19.0 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 19.0 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 4.2 10.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 19.5 1986-1987 0.0 T 3.4 8.8 8.6 1.7 0.0 22.5 1985-1986 0.0 T 2.1 2.6 10.4 0.1 T 15.2 1984-1985 0.0 T 4.7 9.3 5.8 T T 19.8 1983-1984 0.0 T 2.6 11.9 T 8.2 0.0 22.7 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.5 26.1 T 1.1 31.9 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 1.0 18.1 0.3 T 16.0 35.4 1980-1981 0.0 T 0.5 13.2 T 7.1 0.0 20.8 1979-1980 T 0.0 1.5 4.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 9.0 1978-1979 0.0 4.0 T 6.9 17.2 T T 28.1 1977-1978 0.0 0.8 0.2 27.7 28.9 10.4 T 68.0 1976-1977 0.0 T 6.2 11.2 6.6 4.0 0.0 28.0 1975-1976 0.0 T 11.0 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.0 30.2 1974-1975 0.0 0.5 T 1.8 11.0 1.2 T 14.5 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 T 9.0 17.0 8.0 T 34.0 1972-1973 T 0.0 T 1.5 3.0 T T 4.5 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.1 12.5 1.0 T 15.6 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.3 2.0 1.0 2.5 18.9 1969-1970 0.0 T 12.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 T 27.0 1968-1969 0.0 T 3.0 T 19.5 11.0 0.0 33.5 1967-1968 0.0 2.5 5.0 9.1 3.0 3.0 0.0 22.6 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 8.6 1.0 19.5 21.7 T 50.8 1965-1966 0.0 0.0 T 12.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 15.7 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 2.0 24.6 7.4 4.5 1.0 39.5 1963-1964 0.0 T 11.0 11.7 16.0 1.0 0.0 39.7

Yeah, the ENSO responses have been unusual recently.

Super El Niño precipitation amounts with a strong La Niña -PDO and -PNA. Breaking 1983 super El Niño records for snowpack in Utah. Close to super El Niño 1973, 1983, 1998 rain in San Francisco. Almost a super -PNA pattern since December. Time Series Summary for SAN FRANCISCO DOWNTOWN, CA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Oct 1 to Mar 30 Missing Count 1 1862-03-30 47.73 0 2 1890-03-30 43.33 3 3 1998-03-30 39.76 0 4 1868-03-30 36.23 0 5 1878-03-30 33.93 0 6 1973-03-30 33.67 0 7 1983-03-30 33.50 0 8 1850-03-30 32.64 0 9 2023-03-30 32.30 1 10 1867-03-30 32.15 0

Blue hill did 121”in just over a month and 150” for the season. Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for BLUE HILL COOP, MA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 121.0 2015-02-25 0 olumn heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall MA BLUE HILL LCD COOP 150.8 MA BLUE HILL COOP WBAN 150.8 MA KINGSTON 3.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 128.7 RI WEST GLOCESTER 3.4 SE CoCoRaHS 121.5 MA LOWELL COOP 120.6 MA WORCESTER REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 119.7 MA HINGHAM COOP 117.7 MA NEWBURYPORT COOP 117.0 MA SALISBURY 3.7 NW CoCoRaHS 116.9 MA HAVERHILL COOP 113.7 MA GROVELAND 0.5 WSW CoCoRaHS 113.6 MA GROVELAND COOP 112.6 MA ACTON 1.3 SW CoCoRaHS 111.1 MA BOSTON LOGAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 110.6 MA WINTHROP 0.2 N CoCoRaHS 110.6

JFK missed the best banding. Data for December 26, 2010 through January 27, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NJ WESTFIELD 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 70.1 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 61.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 60.2 CT DANBURY COOP 59.8 CT MILFORD 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 59.1 CT PORTLAND 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 59.0 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 59.0 NJ CRANFORD COOP 57.3 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 57.0 NY CENTERPORT COOP 55.3 CT ANSONIA 1 NE COOP 55.0 NJ SADDLE BROOK TWP 0.6 E CoCoRaHS 54.6 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 53.8 CT BRIDGEPORT-SUCCESS HILL COOP 53.8 NY MINEOLA COOP 53.0 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 52.6 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 51.8 NY BRONX COOP 51.3 NJ HAWTHORNE 0.4 S CoCoRaHS 51.1 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 50.4 NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 50.1 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 48.6 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 48.4 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 48.3 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 48.1 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 48.0 NJ WANAQUE 0.6 S CoCoRaHS 47.7 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 46.0 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 45.8 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 45.8 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 45.5 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 45.3 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 45.0 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 44.5 CT DANBURY 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 44.4 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 0.6 SW CoCoRaHS 44.0 CT EAST HAMPTON 0.6 NE CoCoRaHS 43.0 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 43.0 NY WEST POINT COOP 42.3 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 42.0 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 41.8 NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 41.0 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NW CoCoRaHS 40.8 NY ISLIP 0.2 NW CoCoRaHS 40.7 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 39.5 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 38.0 CT GROTON COOP 37.6 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 37.2 CT Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 42.1 1961-02-16 0

Thanks very much. I wasn’t on the board for a while either. So I started posting more personal stuff when I was seeing where is bluewave posts. I always get concerned when posters I have grown to like over the years stop posting. So just wanted to keep board updated.

As impressive as our local snowfall records were during the 2010s, we never was able to match the back to back snowstorms in Baltimore during February 2010 an Boston from late January into February 2015. The closest we came was in Late December 2010 to late January 2011. But there was a little more separation between storms. So we beat Baltimore on the 33 day snowfall challenge. It was no match for Boston which was able to beat Buffalo. Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 61.5 2011-01-27 0 33-Day Total Snowfall for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 55.0 2010-03-03 0 Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 96.3 2015-02-25 0 33-Day Total Snowfall for Buffalo Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 89.4 2002-01-25 0

Baltimore and Philly beat Boston in the snowiest 7 day challenge by a few inches. Maximum 7-Day Total Snowfall for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 44.5 2010-02-11 0 Go Maximum 7-Day Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 44.3 2010-02-11 0 Maximum 7-Day Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 40.5 2015-02-02 0

Over 30” or under 15” has become the new normal on Long Island since 2000. I have no idea how to do a seasonal snowfall forecast ahead of time with such volatility. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 2022-2023 5.0 186 2021-2022 37.0 0 2020-2021 33.5 0 2019-2020 6.8 0 2018-2019 12.8 0 2017-2018 65.9 0 2016-2017 39.3 0 2015-2016 41.4 0 2014-2015 63.7 0 2013-2014 63.7 0 2012-2013 46.9 0 2011-2012 4.7 0 2010-2011 55.3 0 2009-2010 53.8 0 2008-2009 36.2 0 2007-2008 10.7 0 2006-2007 9.0 0 2005-2006 36.0 1 2004-2005 58.8 0 2003-2004 41.4 0 2002-2003 54.6 0 2001-2002 3.7 1 2000-2001 38.9 1 1999-2000 9.0 0

I liked the cool and rainy summers in Long Beach like 09 since there were fewer big beach crowds and it was easy to get parking. Did a lot of boogie boarding and there was also more room to catch waves. The cooler summers of 03 and 04 were great also since I would average 10-20 miles per day on the Long Beach boardwalk. Bought a 7 speed cruiser bike down in the West End and put new handle bars on so I could lean forward for more speed. Fun times growing up in Long Beach. Very good people there. Almost had a suburban Coney Island vibe especially when the amusement park was still there. Ran into Joan Jet several times and said hello. She was very down to earth. Several of her videos were shot there. The old amusement park really brings back memories.

This is another list that you can use. https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

The record WPAC warm pool drove the record MJO leading to the SSW. https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/657/2020/ In the beginning of February 2018 a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation in the polar Northern Hemisphere stratosphere took place, and on 12 February the zonal-mean zonal wind at 60∘ N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly in a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. We investigate the role of the tropospheric forcing in the occurrence of the SSW, its predictability and teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by analysing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast. The SSW was preceded by significant synoptic wave activity over the Pacific and Atlantic basins, which led to the upward propagation of wave packets and resulted in the amplification of a stratospheric wavenumber 2 planetary wave. The dynamical and statistical analyses indicate that the main tropospheric forcing resulted from an anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking, subsequent blocking and upward wave propagation in the Ural Mountains region, in agreement with some previous studies. The ensemble members which predicted the wind reversal also reasonably reproduced this chain of events, from the horizontal propagation of individual wave packets to upward wave-activity fluxes and the amplification of wavenumber 2. On the other hand, the ensemble members which failed to predict the wind reversal also failed to properly capture the blocking event in the key region of the Urals and the associated intensification of upward-propagating wave activity. Finally, a composite analysis suggests that teleconnections associated with the record-breaking MJO phase 6 observed in late January 2018 likely played a role in triggering this SSW event. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9540765/ The predictability of Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events is considered in 10 subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models for 16 major SSWs that have occurred since 1998, a larger sample size than has been considered by previous works. The four factors that most succinctly distinguish those SSWs with above average predictability are a preconditioned vortex prior to the SSW, an active Madden‐Julian Oscillation with enhanced convection in the West Pacific, the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation phase with easterlies in the lower stratosphere, and the vortex morphology (displacement more predictable). Two of these factors appear to not have been considered in previous works focusing on a large sample of events. Most of these effects are not statistically significant at the 95% level due to the still relatively small sample size, though all would exceed a 90% criteria at least marginally. Combined, however, they account for 40% of the inter‐event spread in SSW predictability, thus indicating that SSWs with favorable precursors are significantly more predictable.

Thanks for the really kind words. I really enjoy your posts also.

Sorry BX. The discussion quickly got into current events after someone first mentioned JB. Always starts with climate change then gets into current events and some bring in politics. Didn’t mean to make your job harder. Will just keep it to weather banter. I don’t really have a political bone in my body but am interested in history, current events, and looking out for the underdog. I just get passionate about underdog type issues since I have been one my whole life. Under my pure weather and climate persona beats the heart of someone really interested in looking out for underrepresented people that don’t much of a voice. But understand that there is a separate OT section. Should probably keep it to personal stories and not society. Much love to all of you good people that make this place possible. The great thing about this forum is that it gives a voice to many that wouldn’t necessarily get to be heard outside a virtual world. Could not have done all my weather and climate posts without this venue. In the old days, you needed a TV or radio platform to have a voice in topics like this. Now it’s open to everyone that wants to contribute to the field. Wasn’t much for advanced math back in college though I loved everything weather. So wasn’t able to get a meteorology degree. Loved forecasting in weather lab even though the Alden Difax maps were hard to read. Got more interested in statistics later in life. Sorry for the long rant…keep up the great moderating work BX an Rjay..you guys are some of the best in the moderating business.