bluewave

Another endless summer pattern in September or October transitioning to a little below average in November.

As long as we can line up some decent conditions for a rogue snowstorm or two by February not overly concerned about what happens early on during most El Niños. Don’t mind delayed as long as it isn’t denied.

Yeah, looks like the model blend has the first possible freeze of the season in NYC for tomorrow morning.

It looks like the early part of December features dual forcing from the Maritime Continent back to just east of the Dateline. Not that I put a ton of stock in these extended weekly model extensions, but the GEFS finally has some east based forcing in late December like we saw in 97-98. This time period is still highly speculative. But the model may be responding to the sharp increase in Nino 3 SSTs.

Yeah, very warm and dry November for the CONUS outside the Northeast.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. We may have to be patient for our first snowfall. Very slow start to the season so far across the US.

That is a very good question. I am more in the warmer winters have become more frequent camp since the super El Niño. But we don’t have enough data yet to say it has become permanent. It’s just that the warming WPAC and Western Atlantic have loaded the dice for more warmer outcomes. I still think we’ll eventually get another cold winter in the Northeast. Just that it won’t quite be to the magnitude of what we saw during recent cold winters like 14-15 and 02-03. To get a colder pattern I think we would need to get more of a 500 mb type +PDO pattern like we got in January 22 over several months. I am still trying to figure out how we got that pattern with such a strong -PDO. But my guess is that there is a section of the WPAC near 15N that can override the warmer signal that usually dominates when the entire WPAC is so warm. That is what some of the papers said after the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. I would also like to know why that 13-14 and 14-15 record Western ridge pattern has shifted to the warm season instead of winter leading to record heat and drought out West. So in short, I don’t really know how we could confidently forecast a cold Northeast winter ahead of time absent a strong +PDO and Modoki signature like we got in 14-15. Our next cold winter may just turn out to be a pleasant surprise when forecasts goes warm again. Though it’s possible someone will find an early season signal and go cold and get it correct.

They estimated from a tree ring study that the 1960s drought was the worst in 400 years. https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/

That early December snapshot looks a lot like last December with a Greenland block and hostile Pacific. But hope we have a better chance at getting lucky due to an undercutting Nino STJ. If not in December then later in the season if we can hold the Greenland block.

Looks like Jersey City made it to 58° earlier. https://www.njweather.org/data/5min/3411 Jersey City NJ 2023-11-22 12:50 Mesonet 58

Yeah, the CPC ENSO blog just mentioned this went strong with just one 3 month ONI period meeting the 1.5C+ criteria. So I wouldn’t have any problem classifying this a super if we get at least one 3 month ONI period of 2.0 or greater. But the strongest years like 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, and 72-73 had multiple overlapping 3 month ONI periods. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/november-2023-el-nino-update-transport-options First stop—this El Niño has now met the threshold for a “strong” event! The August–October Oceanic Niño Index, which measures the three-month-average sea surface temperature in the east-central tropical Pacific (the so-called Niño-3.4 region), was 1.5 °C above the long-term average (long-term is currently 1991–2020). The Oceanic Niño Index is our primary metric for ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Niño and La Niña system). The monthly Niño-3.4 Index was 1.7 °C above average.

Maybe just that a warmer atmosphere holds more water. There was a problem with the rain gauge in 1983. So the actual reading may have been closer to 70”. But the long term trend remains either way.

This may be one of the rare cases when something that keeps getting pushed back actually verifies. The models have been forecasting much stronger WWBs than have verified near the Dateline since the spring. But this last WWB was actually the 2nd strongest on record for the November 7-15 period behind 1982. So this WWB was the real deal. I didn’t realize how strong it was until the database updated last few days for comparison to past events. So this is the best shot at at least a weekly to perhaps monthly super reading. But ONI is trickier since it involves a 3 month period. And such long forecasts like that can be low skill. 1st place…1982 2nd strongest 2023 Close 3rd place 1994 4th place 1965

That map was posted as what can happen when we have a -PDO and El Niño combined since it matches actual instances from the past. We won’t know for sure until the models get closer to early December since there is sometimes a bit of a forecast barrier around this time of year. As for getting a strong MJO 8 in December, it only happened once in the last decade during 2017. So it’s been a very rare occurrence this early in the season like SSWs. Our our stronger MJO 8s and SSWs have typically been a JFM event when they were able to occur. Not a guarantee that they will occur again this year. All we know for sure is that a strong to super El Niños like we have now and -PDO have historically both been warm signals for winters. But the snowfall signal was more variable. Better snowfall outcomes during the 82-83 and 15-16 super El Niño’s than 97-98 and 72-73. Also better snowfall outcomes during 04-05 -PDO El Niño than 94-95. So very mixed snowfall results.

I don’t really trust those ultra long range MJO forecasts since it has been very rare to get strong early winter MJO 8 passages in the last decade.

The risk is that the -PDO stubbornly tries to hang on and the ridge NW of Hawaii splits the Aleutian Low. One piece goes back to the Bering Sea and another into the SW US. This pops a downstream ridge near the Great Lakes or Northeast even with a technically positive PNA. While model forecasts beyond 10 days are uncertain, some of them are starting to show patterns matching past -PDO El Niños.

I believe this rapid spike in Nino 3.4 over the last week may be a first time it backed in from the west. So big Nino 3.4 rises in the past usually came from east. This may be why the Nino 3.4 SSTs are so much warmer than past instances with lower upper ocean heat content. A shallower depth higher OHC content near the Dateline is getting the job done almost as well as much more significant OHC anomalies further east did in the past. This is turning out to be a great learning event on how El Niño’s can form in new ways. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

You are correct if you are referencing the 72-73 to 97-98 era. But since 15-16, we have seen the first +30C warm pools east of the Dateline. So this is a new feature with the way El Niño’s have been forming. Also why we don’t get true east based El Niños anymore. But the warm pool near the Maritime Continent is more expansive this year than 15-16.

Now you are muddying up this discussion with over the top comments. Discussing persistent weather patterns isn’t hysteria. It’s called pattern recognition. We have been talking about more persistent patterns with various studies mentioned. You are playing rhetorical games with the fixation on permanence. None of the good papers ever say that a more persistent pattern is a permanent pattern. I have mentioned time and time again that the models aren’t certain whether something becomes permanent or not. Just that it becomes more frequent and it’s unknown whether it transitions to a new pattern in some new climate state. The West Coast ridge that you mentioned was initially occurring during the winters of 13-14 and 14-15. I am aware of no good papers at that time which said it would become a permanent winter state. But that record ridge has been reoccurring more frequently during the warm seasons leading to extreme drought and Western heatwaves as was the case a few summers ago with historic PAC NW heatwave and drought ridge. So that ridge has become a persistent feature. Several studies focused in on record SST warmth around 15N in the WPAC as a generator of this 500 mb pattern. There were also no good papers stating a permanent drought in Texas. What has been stated is that the water cycle becomes more extreme as climate warms. So we alternate between more extreme droughts and flash floods which has been the persistent pattern since at least 2010. The Southeast ridge or Western Atlantic ridge has become more frequent over time. Many studies focus on the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool and shift to more persistent La Niña and MJO 4-6 states. Plus it’s also possible this is related to a slowing AMOC. There are no papers I am aware of that mention permanence. Just that it has become a more frequent pattern and it’s unknown how this pattern will change in the future.

Pretty weak CAA this fall so far with most of the cooler mornings having lighter winds and radiational cooling. NYC needs a old fashioned cold front with strong NW flow to make it to freezing this time of year. The CAA looks more impressive behind the cold front on Friday. So even if the winds slacken by morning, NYC could see it’s first freeze on Saturday.

Looks like the low topped squall and 40+ mph gusts come through early tomorrow. Then a mostly dry day for travel with highs near 60° on Long Island. Then a seasonable and dry Thanksgiving with highs in the low 50s. So great travel weather around the holiday.

If any pattern becomes persistent enough, then it becomes the new climo. Then it’s forecasters job to try and figure out at what point the forecast will deviate from the new established pattern. So far none of the forecasts for a colder winter in the Northeast have worked out for the last 8 years. Not even sure what the forecaster would need to see in the early season data to go colder. But we will eventually see a colder winter here. It’s just getting the timing correct which will be a challenge.

Cold air drainage special. https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/21443/why-lake-clear-is-so-very-cold#:~:text="And it was so interesting,air drainage%2C" Werner said.

Looks like the forecast is for 1° at Saranac Lake but the record is -10°. Saranac Lake Area, NYPeriod of record: 1903-03-01 through 2023-11-19 11/21 -10 in 1933 -3 in 1903 -2 in 2018 https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=137&y=113&site=btv&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=137&map_y=113

Looks like a chilly night outside NYC.