bluewave

Similar pattern to recent years with a number of stations finishing above 60° in October and 70° in September. Monthly Data for October 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature NY WEST POINT COOP 64.9 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 63.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 62.7 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 62.5 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 61.8 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 61.1 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 60.9 NJ HARRISON COOP 60.5 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 60.3 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 60.3 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 60.3 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 60.2 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 60.2 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 60.2 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 60.2 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 60.1 Monthly Data for September 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 71.7 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 71.2 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.0 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 70.2 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 70.1

We are currently running at levels close to this time last year. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

Last December was unprecedented for having the 2nd lowest December -AO on record with only a neutral NAO. This was one of the reasons along with the hostile Pacific that it was warmer and less snowy than the other Decembers with a -2 or lower AO reading. December 2009….AO….-3.413….NAO….-1.93 2022….AO….-2.719…..NAO….-0.15 2010…..AO….-2.631…..NAO….-1.85 2000…..AO….-2.354….NAO….-0.58 1995…..AO…..-2.127…..NAO….-1.67 2005…..AO…..-2.104….NAO…..-0.44 1976…..AO…...-2.074…NAO…….-1.60

Temperatures this October in Australia pretty much the opposite of what would be expected during an El Niño with the record cold.

The early to mid 90s were the glory days for them. Time Series Summary for STATE COLLEGE, PA - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1993-1994 109.3 0 2 1995-1996 99.0 0 3 1977-1978 98.2 0 4 1992-1993 92.5 0 5 1960-1961 91.9 0 6 1969-1970 89.9 0 7 2002-2003 83.6 0 8 1963-1964 78.2 0 9 1913-1914 77.4 122 10 1941-1942 75.0 2

This would help State College make up many of the lower snowfall seasons since the 90s.

850s this warm during the summer would support upper 80s to around 90°.

Strongest Niña-like warmth on record for October in Caribou, Maine. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 53.2 El Nino 2 2017 51.4 La Niña 3 2021 49.9 La Niña 4 2022 49.8 La Niña 5 1947 48.8 Neutral 6 1968 48.4 El Niño 7 1995 47.8 La Niña 8 2007 47.6 La Niña 9 1963 47.5 El Niño 10 1970 47.4 La Niña

That’s what the data has been showing for months now.

Yeah, these weren’t strong enough WWBs to bring us to super El Nino status since they were significantly weaker than in October 2015, 1997, and 1982.

The downwelling Kelvin wave back in March looked more impressive to me near the Dateline. And Nino 3.4 took until August to really respond. So this event will already be past its peak if any significant warming is realized in 3.4 from it.

But the 500 mb pattern this October was more more like a La Niña than an El Niño. So it’s arguable how well coupled this El Niño actually is. This October probably set the new record for blocking around Hudson Bay which is classic La Niña. Plus all the record warmth across the northern tier isn’t something you see during an El Niño.

We almost got it done last March but the big storm tracked about 100 miles too far north and favored the interior.

We used to do better in the old days with a trough digging into the Baja and -AO. But the tendency for more south based blocks in recent years hurt us.

Not much difference between the low of 59 at Albany and 63 at LGA.

We were talking about temperature and not snowfall. It was a record breaking 8 warmer than average winters in a row in the Northeast. Most of the winter forecasts have been biased too cold in the Northeast. So going warm regardless of ENSO or polar domain has been a winning hand. Average winter temperatures in the Northeast (DJF) https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/101/tavg/3/2/1895-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 22-23…30.7….+4.9….2nd warmest 21-22….26.1…..+0.3 20-21….27.1….+2.2…16th warmest 19-20….28.9…+4.0…6th warmest 18-19….25.6….+0.7 17-18….25.3….+0.4 16-17….29.5…..+4.6..5th warmest 15-16…30.7……+5.8…2nd warmest

The models have really struggled with this La Niña background pattern.

The more aggressive models with the warming like the Euro have been running too warm since 12-13 with the persistent La Niña background state. But we have also seen the warm bias go beyond the spring into September like this year.

Overperforming warm ups have become the new normal.

The recent WWBs were too weak compared to past El Niños to move the needle much on Nino 3.4 with such low upper ocean heat content. So the October monthly average is going to come in closer to 1.6 than the Euro 2.03 super Nino forecast. ECMWF 2.03

Just made the Lockitin hall of fame.

That just goes to show how even a few degrees above normal in our warmer climate is still top 10 warmth for our area. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 61.9 0 2 2021 61.2 0 3 2007 61.1 0 4 1990 60.9 0 5 1971 59.7 0 6 2023 58.6 6 7 1995 58.5 0 8 1963 58.3 0 9 2019 57.9 0 - 2013 57.9 0 - 2012 57.9 0 10 2016 57.5 0 - 2014 57.5 0 - 1984 57.5 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 61.5 0 2 1971 60.3 0 3 2007 60.1 0 4 2021 59.8 3 5 1963 58.5 0 6 1954 58.0 0 7 1995 57.9 10 8 1984 57.8 0 9 2023 57.7 6 10 1949 57.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 64.4 0 2 2017 63.8 0 3 2007 63.5 0 4 1971 63.1 0 5 1990 62.4 0 6 1984 62.2 0 7 2023 61.9 6 8 1949 61.6 0 9 1963 61.2 0 10 1995 61.0 0 - 1947 61.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 61.2 0 2 2017 61.1 0 3 2023 60.0 6 - 2007 60.0 0 4 2019 58.7 0 5 1949 58.1 0 6 2014 58.0 0 - 2012 58.0 2 7 1970 57.4 0 - 1954 57.4 0 8 2020 57.2 0 9 1968 57.1 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 58.5 0 2 2021 58.2 0 3 2007 58.0 0 4 1947 57.9 0 5 1971 57.4 0 6 1931 57.3 0 7 2023 56.9 6 8 1949 56.2 0 9 1932 55.9 2 10 1963 55.8 0 - 1946 55.8 0